Kevin Rogers
Washington at Oregon
Play: Washington +10
Washington has struggled on the highway during Pac-12 play, losing six consecutive games away from Seattle. Tonight, Washington makes the short trip to Eugene to take on an underacheiving Oregon squad that is just 2-8-1 ATS the last 11 games as a favorite. The Ducks took care of rival Oregon State on Sunday, but Oregon did lose in the last matchup with Washington on the road. The Huskies are coming off a home loss to California, as UW is 5-1 ATS the last six off an ATS loss. I'll back Washington as a road dog.
Rocketman
Creighton @ Marquette
Play: Marquette +3
The Creighton Blue Jays travel to Marquette to take on the Golden Eagles on Wednesday night. Creighton has been a surprise this year. Not that they are winning again but their overall record is 21-4 SU on the season while Marquette has been somewhat of a disappointment with a record of 15-10 SU overall this year. Throw out the records! Creighton is only 4-16 ATS last 3 years when playing in February. Marquette is 114-71 ATS since 1997 as an underdog. Marquette is 42-3 SU at home the past 3 years. Marquette is allowing only 60.2 points per game at home this year. Creighton is 1-4 ATS last 5 games overall. This would be a huge win for Marquette here tonight to add to their resume for possible Big Dance consideration. We'll recommend a small play on Marquette tonight!
Harry Bondi
MARQUETTE (+3) over Creighton
Creighton is coming off a thumping of Villanova but faces a Marquette team tonight that is playing it's best basketball of the season. Marquette got pounded at Creighton 67-49 on New Year's Eve so we look for the revenge minded Golden Eagles to be ready with one of their best efforts of the season tonight. Marquette has won four of their last five and are on the bubble for the NCAA Tournament right now but a quality win here over the Blue Jays will go a long way toward getting them in the big dance on selection Sunday. Take the home dog.
Nelly
George Mason + over St. Louis
St. Louis is 23-2 on the season with a great backcourt and incredible defensive numbers. The Billikens held on to win the biggest game of the A-10 season on Saturday with a 64-62 win over Virginia Commonwealth. This is a tricky third road game in the past five games for St. Louis and the next game on the schedule is a big game with George Washington, one of the other top teams in the conference. George Mason is only 2-9 in conference play and just 9-16 overall but the Patriots nearly beat St. Louis when these teams met in early February, eventually losing 87-81 in overtime in a game George Mason should have won in regulation. It was a strong shooting game for George Mason but St. Louis had a huge edge at the line in the game. George Mason controlled the boards in the matchup and this is a team playing with more confidence. In the last six games the Patriots are 2-4 with the losses coming in close games against some of the top teams in the conference. George Mason also picked up two S/U underdog road wins including winning at Massachusetts. St. Louis is only 4-7 ATS in road games this season and this is a good value opportunity for a home underdog that is playing improved ball of late.
OC Dooley
Kings +4.5
Visiting Golden State is in a classic “look ahead” scenario at tomorrow night in front of their rabid fan base Stephen Curry and company will be playing host to Houston’s All Star tandem of Dwight Howard and James Harden. The most important handicapping angle of this particular tilt though is that tonight is a RARE HOME GAME for Sacramento as an amazing 13 of the most recent 18 appearances have been on the highway. If everything follows to form tonight will be an extremely CLOSE game which has been the case in this “series” when played in the capital city of California. The last time Golden State visited Sacramento the game was decided by a TWO POINT margin. Taking it a step further the last THREE times that Oakland-based Golden State played on the home floor of Sacramento the three tilts were decided by a grand total of just EIGHT points with every one of them nailbiters. Here is a dynamic “24-8” SYSTEM (75-Percent the past five years when 42+ games into the schedule) which plays ON underdogs like Sacramento with an excellent offense (98 to 102 ppg average) facing a poor defensive opponent (98 to 102 ppg allowed), after a combined score of 205+ points in consecutive outings. That system supports Sacramento and their big man DeMarcus Cousins who despite being in the league’s statistical elite was an All Star “snub”
Dave Essler
Cincinnati / Central Florida Under 131
A couple of things here. First of all, there's simply a ton of bets on Cincinnati yet the line is not moving, so the sharper money, at least now, is on the home team. I'd like to think so, but I don't see how UCF scores. They shoot a mere 60% from the line and turn the ball over a fair bit. The last time these two met it was a 69-51 pounding in Cincinnati, and that's by my math 120 points. Since then, most of their games have indeed gone over, but they've played faster paced teams. The Bearcats play slow, and we know what kind of defense Cincinnati plays. UCF will try to run at times, but running and scoring are not the same thing. Now, the reason for that lack of line movement is quite likely the fact that Cincinnati plays at Louisville this weekend, so people are seeing that as a look-ahead. Typically, if they're going to be sluggish, it's going to be on defense, but again, they're playing UCF, not Creighton. If it wasn't for the fact that the last "look-ahead" game they had was against Temple on the road, before playing L'ville, they got dragged into a run-n-shoot game, I'd have made this play bigger, too. But, you guys that have been around all season know we can't always have everything.
Jeff Scott Sports
3 UNIT PLAYS
Syracuse/ Boston College Under 132: Syracuse can't score right now as they they have averaged just 58 ppg in their last 4 games. Now we look at Syracuse's ACC games and we see that just 1 of those games have put up more than 129 points, with the only game doing so being the Duke OT game. Take out that game and Syracuse's other 11 ACC games have averaged just 112.9 ppg. that a 19 point difference from tonight's total. A big reason is their stifling defense that allows just 58.2 ppg on the year, including just 52.1 ppg in their ACC games vs teams not named Duke. BC is an average offensive team that averages just 70 ppg overall and 67.4 ppg on the road in the ACC, but vs this defense it will be hard for them to come close to either of those numbers. BC allows 76.6 ppg on the road, but Syracuse is really happy scoring in the mid 60's at best. Syracuse as scored more than 69 points just twice in their ACC games and they scored just 69 points the last time these teams met. 69-55 sounds about right for this one.
Vanderbilt/ Missouri Over 131: Yes I have an Over play. LOL. Vanderbilt is not an uptempo team and their recent game have been pretty lower scoring, but let's dig into that a bit. 7 of Vandy's last 10 games have put up less than tonight's total, but we note that 6 of those games were vs Texas A&M (Twice), South Carolina, Tennessee, Georgia and Miss State, which are all slow down teams and those games averaged just 116.1 ppg. Now in those last 10 games they faced Arkansas, LSU, Ole Miss and Missouri, while are all uptempo games and those games have averaged 139.5 ppg, with 3 of those games putting up at least 139 points. The earlier meeting between these teams was at Vandy and 153 points were scored in that game, and now they are playing the Game at Missouri, where their home games have averaged 144.1 ppg. Vandy games can put up plenty of points when they take on uptempo teams, like they will tonight. Missouri's last 5 games have averaged 156.8 ppg and i see no reason why this game cant at least hit 140 points.
Illinois/ Minnesota Under 130: The Illini cant score at all on the road as they have averaged just 57.1 ppg on 35.5% shooting this year. Actually they haven't been able to score much at all of late as they have averaged just 55.8 ppg in their last 10 games vs Big 12 opposition. This is one pathetic offense right now and Minnesota doesn't give up a whole lot at home, allowing just 63.2 ppg on 41.2% shooting this year. Minnesota does average 74.3 ppg at home, but the Illini have allowed just 63.8 ppg on 42.3% shooting. The Illini will not get in too many running games as they just don't have the offense to do that. Minnesota will oblige as they are not much of a running team either. Last year the teams played twice and just 110 and 100 points were scored in the games. The Under is 8-3 the last 11 meetings and 20-6 in Illinois' last 26 road games. I expect a game in the lower 120's here at best.
2 UNIT PLAYS
Florida/ Auburn Under 136: Gonna go with an Under on another team that plays excellent defense. The Florida Gators play some of the best defense in the nation, allowing just 58.3 ppg (6th in nation) on just 39.5% shooting (23rd). At home they have been even stingier, allowing just 54.5 ppg on 37.5% shooting. Auburn does average a modest 71.3 ppg on the road, but on just 41.7 shooting, including just 30.5 from long range. Auburn has struggled on defense on the road, but can Florida really take advantage. The Gators have averaged just 72.0 ppg at home overall and just 71.3 ppg at home in SEC play. They Shoot well overall (46.3%) but are poor from long range (32.3%) and hit just 66.7% from the charity stripe in their home games this year. Gator home games have averaged just 126.5 ppg and the Under is 9-2-1 in those games. This one should stay under as well.
UNLV/ New Mexico Under 139: UNLV has struggled on offense of late, but their defense has picked up the slack as they have allowed just 59.6 ppg in their last 5 games. New Mexico has also played very good defense of late, allowing just 63.2 ppg in their last 5 games, so both teams come in playing great defense at the moment. New Mexico allows 69.1 ppg on 39.4% shooting on the road, while the Rebels have allowed just 64.2 ppg on 40.6% shooting at home. Just too much defense in this one and that has me expecting no more than 135 points.
Dr. Bob
Opinion - St. Joseph’s (-4½) over RHODE ISLAND
Rhode Island has lost 5 straight games and the Rams’ 71-83 upset loss to Duquesne is not a good omen for them tonight, as that loss sets them up in a very negative 2-31 ATS subset of a 27-71 ATS negative momentum situation. St. Joe’s only beat Rhode Island by 4 points at home but the Hawks missed 17 free throws and made just 2 of 14 3-point shots in that game. What’s telling is that the Hawks dominated inside the arc, making 59% of their 2-points shots while Rhode Island made just 46% inside the arc in that game. My ratings favor St. Joe’s by 3½ points, but the line has gone up from an opening number of 3 points. I’ll lean with the Hawks based on the very strong situation and I’d take St. Joseph’s in a 2-Star Best Bet at -4 or less and for 3-Stars at -3 or less.
Opinion - Northwestern (+13½) over OHIO STATE
Northwestern fits the mold of a good big underdog, as the Wildcats play great defense and play at a slow pace. Northwestern is ranks 9th in compensated points per possession allowed and plays as the 13th slowest pace (possessions per game) in the nation. A combination of good defense and a slow pace make it tougher for big favorites to pull away and the Wildcats apply to a 122-52-6 ATS angle that is based on their statistical profile. Northwestern has applied in that angle twice this season, a 65-56 win as a 17 point dog at Wisconsin and a 15 point loss as a 15 point dog at Michigan State, which actually was a good play that pushed because Michigan State had a randomly made 52.4% of their 3-point shots in that game. Northwestern is going to have trouble scoring in this game but the Wildcats should do a good job of defending a mediocre Ohio State offense. My ratings favor the Buckeyes by 14½ points and the line has dropped from 14½ to 13½. I’ll still lean with the Wildcats plus the points and I’d take Northwestern in a 2-Star Best Bet at +14 points or more.
Opinion - UNDER (182.5) - Chicago at TORONTO
This game applies to an 82-32-4 UNDER situation and my math comes up with 179.0 as a fair total. I don't usually have totals as Best Bets but I'll consider the UNDER in this game an opinion.