SPORTS WAGERSFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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COLORADO +108 over St. LouisFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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OT included. The Blues hosted the Sharks last eve and ended up on the short end of a 2-1 final. What is not revealed in that score is that St. Louis had nothing left in the third period, mustering up just three measly shots on net in the first 18 minutes of the final frame. The Blue Notes will now play their third game in four days and fifth game in seven days. Last Wednesday, they played in Detroit and subsequently made their way to Western Canada for games Friday and Sunday against Calgary and Vancouver respectively. They returned home for last night’s game but that followed nearly a full day of travel delays and they didn’t get into St. Louis until yesterday morning. The effects of those hold-ups were evident. The Blues now have to travel to the Mile High city for another contest and if the fatigue factor wasn’t already an issue, playing in this environment figures to be. In terms of scheduling, it really doesn’t get more difficult than five games in seven nights in five different cities including Western Canada and Colorado.
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Outside of a 3-0 loss to the Ducks recently, Colorado has been in every one of its last eight games. Over that span, the Avalanche have gone 4-4 with two of the three losses being by one goal (one in OT) and the other by two goals. Colorado is finding its offense, having scored 14 goals in its past three games and that should continue in this very favorable spot.
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Murray St. at Morehead StateFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Prediction: Morehead StateFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The simulator shows a high probability that Morehead will win this game. There is no monetary advantage to play the money line given the risk-reward profile so just take the 1 1/2 points. Morehead has a huge advantage on the boards and the confirms this showing a projection that Morehead will have at least four more boards. In past games, Murray State is just 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) when they grab 4 to 9 fewer rebounds than their opponents in a game over the last 3 seasons. The sim also shows a high probability that Morehead will score 67 to 74 points. In past games, Morehead is a solid 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) when they score 67 to 74 points in a game over the last 3 seasons.
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Memphis vs. TorontoFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: TorontoFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Rudy Gay has made a massive impact since arriving in Toronto, averaging 21.1 points per game, while helping the Raptors win six of eight. Gay will get a chance to take a jab at his former team tonight, as the Raptors face Memphis at home, in the first meeting since the big trade.
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While Gay and Toronto have a lot to prove, this game won't mean as much to Memphis, as key player the Raptors traded didn't end up with the Grizzlies, but was shipped to Detroit for Tayshaun Prince. He doesn't have any particular reason to get up for this game more than any other, and in fact.. Prince has not played well in previous trips to Toronto, averaging just 9.4 points in his last five visits.
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The Raptors have covered the spread in four of their last five home meetings with the Grizz, and that was without Gay. It's not just Gay who has been playing well during the Raptors winning streak, Jonas Valanciunas has been playing well since returning from injury, and backup PG John Lucas has been money from 3-point range, hitting 13 of 17 from beyond the arc. No, that's not a mistake, he's really that hot!
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I think the Raptors will come out with a lot of energy in such a big game tonight, and Memphis may struggle to match Toronto's intensity.
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3 UNIT PLAYSFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Austin Peay +12 over EASTERN KENTUCKY: Austin Peay has not had a great year (6-20), but as i will show you this team has been very competitive. The Govenors have won 2 in a row, with both wins coming on the road and they are now 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 away from home. Now when their team was mired in a 1-16 stretch prior to their two game win streak, we note that 11 of those losses were by 10 or less and 2 other losses were by 13 points, plus 3 of those loses were in OT. The Govenors are 3-10 in the OVC, but their 10 losses have been by just 8.1 ppg. This is a team that just havent given up, despite their record. On the other side we have an EKU team that has had a great year so far at 21-6 overall and 10-3 in the OVC. They are 14-1 at home, but this is not a team that will blow you out as they have outscored their opponents by just 10 ppg at home, winning just 1 of their OVC home games by more than 11 points and that one was by 13 points. We also note that this is a great look-a-head spot for EKU as they have their bracketbuster game vs Valpo on deck this Saturday. One team that won't roll over and die, vs another team that just doesn't blow teams out and has a big game on deck. The Govenors should keep this one in single digits.
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Depaul/ Georgetown Under 138: Contrasting styles here as Depaul likes the uptempo game, while the Hoyas prefer to slow it down and they play great defense. This is a high OU line for a Georgetown game as their average OU line has been just 120.5 within the Big East this year. Georgetown's Big East games have averaged just 118.5 ppg and only 1 of their 12 BE games put up more than 132 points and that was the 139 points scored in their game vs Providence. The Blue Demons can score some points, but they also needed OT to get to 70+ points in 3 of their Big East games, were held to just 55 vs Pitt and 62 to St Johns in their first meeting. Now they take on perhaps the best defense in the league in Georgetown. The Hoyas have allowed more than 65 points just once in their BE games and 63 points or less in each of their last 8 games. Georgetown has allowed just 54.4 ppg at home and just 54.1 ppg in their last 7 games overall. Offensively Georgetown just doesn't have the horses or the will to take advantage of a bad Depaul defense. The Hoyas prefer a slower game and they averaged 64.2 ppg overall and just 64 pg at home. I don't see them running up and down the floor, while their defense will keep the Demons from putting up more than 60 here. 69-56 sounds about right.
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Memphis/ Houston Over 149.5: Should be a fun uptempo game. The Cougars really like to push the ball and they are ranked 44th in the nation in tempo. Houston has averaged a solid 76.7 ppg on the year, but their defense has been weak as they have allowed 73 ppg overall and 77.9 ppg on the road. The Cougars are 304th in the nation in defensive efficiency and will be taking on a Memphis squad that averages 74.9 ppg overall and 76.9 ppg at home. Memphis has averaged 81.8 ppg in their last 5 games, while Houston has allowed 81.8 ppg in their last 5 games, so I fully expect the Tigers to hit the 80+ point mark in this one. Memphis i #1 in defensive efficiency in Conference USA, but the Cougars in an uptempo game are more than capable of putting up 70 points on this defense. 87-70 sounds like a good final here.
More later
David Banks
Boston Celtics +7.5
What has traditionally been one of the best rivalries in the NBA continues Wednesday night when the Boston Celtics (28-24, 21-28-3 ATS) visit the Los Angeles Lakers (25-29, 21-32-1 ATS) at the Staples Center in Los Angeles, CA at 10:35 ET on ESPN. The difference this time is that neither team is assured of a playoff berth, although the Celtics rallied nicely when they lost Rajon Rondo for the season and they are actually in decent shape as the seventh seed in the East right now. The Lakers on the other hand are on the outside looking in as the 10th seed in the West, 3 games behind Houston for the eighth and final playoff spot.
Most people thought that the Boston season ended when Rondo tore his ACL, but instead the Celtics have prospered and actually improved on both sides of the ball since he went down. They upset LeBron James and the Miami Heat in the first game after Rondo's diagnosis was revealed and they have not slowed down since as that started their 8-1 run going into the All-Star break. That run included a 116-95 rout of these Lakers in Boston, and the Celtics averaged 99.7 points while allowing only 92.7 points in those nine games. They are starting to get balanced scoring again with veterans Paul Pierce and Kevin Garnett combining for 33.6 points per game and with Jason Terry and Jeff Green also both averaging double-digits. Just as importantly, Boston is finally starting to play defense like it has the last few years after looking like an old team on that side of the ball for much of this season, as they have held their last five opponents to a miniscule 41.1 percent shooting going into a Tuesday night date in Denver. The recent hot spell leaves Boston 1 games ahead of eighth place Milwaukee and more importantly 5 games ahead of ninth place Philadelphia.
Now, the Lakers were favored by many to reach the NBA Finals after adding Dwight Howard and Steve Nash during the off season, but instead the team has had no chemistry when those two stars, Kobe Bryant and Pau Gasol have all been healthy, which to be fair has not happened very often. Nash and Howard have already missed time with injuries and now Gasol is out for another month with a torn plantar fascia in his foot. That means that Kobe has basically been a one man show for much of the season and the end result has been the Lakers being four games under .500 overall and just 16-11 here at Staples while fighting for their playoff lives coming out of the All-Star break. The biggest disappointment has probably been Howard, who appears hindered offensively while battling a shoulder injury and who has not improved the Laker defense like he was expected to. In fact, the Lakers allowed 105.2 points per game on an unacceptable 48.6 percent shooting over the last five games before the break.
The Celtics are 16-7-1 ATS in the last 24 head-to-head meetings and 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings in Los Angeles. Boston is also on a 7-2 ATS run overall since losing Rondo. The Lakers are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games vs. teams with winning straight up records.
WunderdogFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Oakland at IPFWFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: OaklandFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Oakland Golden Grizzlies have had some good teams in the past and before all is said and done, this team may be amongst them. The Grizzlies have rolled to a 10-4 conference record, having won eight straight games, and will be a factor come Summit Conference Tournament time. IPFW has struggled to a 12-16 record on the season, and just doesn't have the upset variables here to take down the Grizzlies. Oakland has been a superior momentum team where they are 36-14-1 ATS in their last 51 when following an ATS win. The Grizzlies express keeps on keepin' on, so take them here.
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Cal Santa Barbara vs. UC RiversideFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Play: UC RiversideFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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UC Riverside held Santa Barbara to 35.1% the last time they played and still lost, but what's going to change in this game is that UCR will be + in FTA and + in turnover margin as UCSB is negative in both on the road. Riverside should improve and SB relies far too much on the three ball where Riverside is holding opponents to 32% at home. Meanwhile Santa Barbara who attempts more than 40% of their shots from 3 are shooting just 28% there over their last 5 games.
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Oklahoma St -1 vs KansasFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Well, this may be for the title in the Big 12, who would have thunk it? Kansas struggles against good teams with good guard play and Okie St has the best player on the floor tonight in Marcus Smart, who KU had no answer for in the first meeting which they lost at home to the Cowboys. I am NOT sold on Kansas whose last road trip to Oklahoma was in Norman and OU handed them a road loss in that one.
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Okie State has the best talent on the floor in the Big 12, but Travis Ford is not the best coach in the Big 12, Bill Self is,so that is a positivge for KU backers. At days end, winning in this building, which is sold out tonight is going to be a tall chore for a KU team that struggles on offd=ense on the road, has no answer inside in this one for OSU's talent and KU has no true point guard either. OSU has scored 80 ppg their last 5 games and are vastly better on offense than Kansas. KU just 4-7 ATS on the road this year and have dropped 3 out of their last 5 games SU. Also to note that the Cowboys play awesome defense at home allowing just 57 ppg. Kansas meets their match here in a tight one.
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Magic / Mavericks Over 206FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Orlando had another loss last night against Charlotte last night, where they showed no effort on defense during the first half. The trade rumors will certainly continue today and so, it is very hard to trust them on showing any focus on defense tonight as well. If the Bobcats were a tough matchup for Orlando due to their quick guards, good pick and roll ball handler numbers and high volume of transition plays, then what can we say about Dallas? The Mavericks are #5 in the league in pick and roll ball handler plays with 0.82 PPP and #4 in transition plays with 1.20 PPP, so we can say that Dallas is basically an (way) improved version of Charlotte right now, so they should give a lot of problems to Orlando tonight. Just look at their last four games prior to the All Star Break, where they scored 22, 29, 14 and 24 fast break points! On this particularly spot, with the Mavericks playing at home against a team on a back to back spot, Dallas's game plan has been very simple this season: run up and down the court to worn out their opponents. On this season, the Over is 7-3 every time an opponent plays at Dallas in a back to back spot, with the Mavericks averaging an amazing 22.6 fast break points per game on this specific spot! Against Orlando's poor defense, Dallas won't have problems in scoring in their run and gun style at home. They are rested and healthy, so they will simply run over the Magic tonight.
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However, I am expecting a better offensive performance from Orlando tonight in comparison to yesterday. Note that even though Orlando shot 41,6% FG, they still had 26 assists for a great 70.3% assist rate. The problem is that they simply missed too many wide open jump shots with 5-17 FG from 16-23 feet and 4-25 treys! We are talking about 9-42 FG from +16 feet! Their best three guards in Jameer Nelson, J.J. Redick and Arron Afflalo shot a combined of 3-20 from behind the line and this is unlikely to happen once again tonight, as these three players are solid jump shooters and so, they should bounce back tonight. The first game between these two teams ended with 216 points scored in a fast paced contest, where Dallas scored 22 fast break points and Orlando's top three guards all had decent offensive games. I expect something similar tonight, so I'll be taking the Over in here.
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Houston Cougars + 19FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Memphis Tigers have played an extremely weak schedule this season. That is why they have only three losses but still rank 21st in the nation. Memphis is 0-6 ATS versus good offensive teams that are scoring 77 or more points per game over the last 2 seasons. Houston averages 78 points per game and they go a great job of avoiding turnovers and rarely get into foul trouble.
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You should always play on underdogs of 10 or more points when they are shooting 36.5% or more from beyond the three point line against a team with an average three point defense allowing 32-36.5% after 15 games in a season when both teams are out rebounding their opponents. This system is 29-8 ATS since 1997.
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Detroit Pistons -3FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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With the Bobcats winning on the road at Orlando and the Pistons losing at home to the Grizzlies last night, it has set up a very favorable spot to jump on Detroit. Charlotte struggles just to keep games competitive and rarely do you see them win multiple games in a row. The Bobcats are a miserable 1-8 ATS in their last 9 games when they are anywhere from a 3-point favorite to a 3-point dog and are 0-8 ATS in their last 8 games following an upset win as a road underdog.
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The Pistons were caught off guard earlier this season when Charlotte left Detroit with a 108-101 overtime victory. No need to worry about the Pistons not showing up. Detroit is 29-13 ATS revenging a straight up loss vs opponent as a home favorite of 7or more since 1996. They are also 21-7 ATS in their last 28 road games vs a team with a home winning percentage less than .400.
Tony Karpinski
Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Houston Rockets
Play: Oklahoma City Thunder
Scotty Brooks' men did something they rarely do right before the All-Star Break: they lost back to back games. That is very rare for this team and now that it is the 2nd half of the NBA season, I look for OKC to get back on track. Consider that the Thunder are 26-4 SU and 23-7 ATS their last 30 regular seasons games off a loss. OKC will dominate the paint and the boards and historically the NBA All-Star host team struggles in their first game after the break, I'll lay the 3 points with the Thunder on Wednesday night.
Steve Merril
Phoenix Suns vs. Golden State Warriors
Play:Golden State Warriors
Phoenix won at Portland last night 102-98 snapping their 4-game losing streak. The Suns got off to a hot start as they hit 18 of their first 24 shots (75%) to jump out to a 36-23 lead over the Blazers. But Phoenix went cold for the rest of the game as they hit just 39.7% (23-58) over the course of the last three quarters. They were able to hold on and survive because Portland’s offense was limited as they were missing starter Wesley Matthews. Golden St also played last night but they lost in Utah 115-101. The Warriors come in on a 6-game losing streak, and it just so happens that their last win came against Phoenix. The Warriors beat the Suns by 20 points (113-93), and we can expect a similar result tonight. Golden St simply has too much offensive firepower for Phoenix, and since the Suns come off a good offensive performance last night, we expect them to regress and be unable to match Golden St’s offensive output. We’ll lay the points with the home favorite as they snap their losing streak with a blowout win on Wednesday night.
Larry Ness
Vanderbilt vs. Kentucky
Pick: Kentucky
Kentucky, the defending champs, opened the season No. 3 in the AP poll but this year’s youthful Wildcats were not up to those lofty expectations. Kentucky fell from the rankings early on but by Feb 11, had climbed back in at No. 25 (stood at 17-6, including 8-2 in the SEC). However, the ‘Cats lost 69-52 at Florida on Feb 12, a game in which they lost 6-10 freshman Nerlens Noel (a player many expected to be the No. 1 overall pick in the NBA Draft), to a season-ending injury. In Kentucky’s first game without Noel (at Tennessee this past Saturday), the Wildcats were pummeled by the Vols, 88-58! The Wildcats allowed the Volunteers to shoot 58 percent from the floor, easily the highest mark against Kentucky this season. Coach John Calipari said following the game that several of his players “are not real coachable.” It marked the worst loss in the John Calipari era and the Wildcats return home to begin a three-game homestand with some bruised egos. I don’t expect the ‘Cats to be down for long and tonight’s opponent (Vanderbilt) is just 10-14 (4-8 in the SEC) in a rebuilding year. The Commodores have just two players scoring in double figures, guard Johnson (13.7) and the 6-9 Odom (10.2-4.3). Vandy is just 2-5 SU in true road games TY, averaging a modest 53.9 PPG. Meanwhile, Kentucky is 12-2 at home, where the Wildcats have outscored opponents on average, 80.9-to-59.8 PPG. Sure Noel (10.5-9.5) is no longer around but it’s my opinion that Calipari’s “visibly disturbed” postgame press conference didn’t fall on deaf ears. Freshman Goodwin (13.6-4.5), Poythress (11.7-6.2) and Cauley-Stein (7.5-5.3) plus vets Wiltjer (11.8-4.6), Harrow (9.4) and Mays (9.4-3.0 AG) comprise more than enough talent to put away Vandy. Lay the points.
Teddy Covers
Washington St. vs. Arizona St.
Pick: Arizona St.
I posted a ‘free play’ winner in support of Arizona State in their last game; an outright Sun Devils upset win as 7.5 point underdogs at Colorado. And there’s absolutely no reason to avoid going right back to the well in support of Herb Sendek’s squad tonight; an undervalued commodity for months now.
Arizona State has hit 67% against the spread over their last 18 lined ballgames dating back to the beginning of December, including a 75% ATS mark as favorites of 6.5 points or higher – exactly the pointspread that we find them in tonight. It all starts with point guard Jahii Carson, averaging more than 19 points per game in his last ten contests.
But Carson isn’t doing it by himself. 7-2 center Jordan Bachynski is blocking nearly four shots per game, a true low post defensive dominator. Carrick Felix has already been named the PAC-12 ‘Player of the Week’ three times this year; a double double machine. Evan Gordon and Jonathan Gilling are perimeter sharpshooters, combining to hit 4 ½ three pointers per game. And they’ve gotten even better since combo guard Chris Colvin’s return to the lineup following a modest injury absence; their best scorer off the bench.
Washington State can’t match Arizona State’s talent or execution levels on either end of the floor. The Cougars have covered only twice in their last eight tries on the highway; just 2-5 ATS as underdogs of five points or more this year – not a team to support when stepping up in class. They’re coming off a particularly disheartening overtime defeat against Oregon in their last game, simply playing out the stretch of yet another disappointing campaign. Don’t expect a step-up effort tonight! Take Arizona State.