Jeff Alexander
Golden State Warriors -8
Golden State has lot 6 in a row, but I believe it has an excellent chance to end its skid in impressive fashion tonight. I'm confident the Warriors are the superior team. They have already proven it twice this season and recorded a 20-point win when Phoenix visited Feb. 2. The Suns would love some revenge but fading teams that are playing with double revenge against an opponent that is coming off a road loss has produced a 416-300 (58.1%) ATS record the last 5 seasons. Plus, Phoenix is only 14-27 ATS (when playing with double revenge the last 2 seasons.
Dave Price
Kansas +1
The Jayhawks lost to Oklahoma State by five points at home Feb. 2. That loss ended an 18-game winning streak and sent them into a three-game spiral. They have rebounded with decisive wins in each of their last two games, and I expect them to have their revenge this evening. Oklahoma State has rattled off seven consecutive victories but plays on road teams that are out for revenge for a home loss to an opponents, provided that foe checks in off at least three straight wins against conferences opponents, are 243-174 ATS the last five seasons. In other words, Kansas fits neatly into a rock solid 58.3 percent time-tested situation. In addition, the Jayhawks are a strong 16-7 ATS when out for revenge for an upset loss to an opponent under coach Bill Self. Prior to losing the first meeting, Kansas had won four straight in the series. I expect it to start another run tonight.
Jack Jones
Baylor -4.5
The Baylor Bears should be a bigger home favorite over the Iowa State Cyclones tonight. Baylor will want revenge from its 71-79 road loss at Iowa State in their first meeting of the season on February 2nd. I like its chances of getting it considering how poorly the Cyclones have played on the road this season.
Iowa State is just 2-7 in true road games this season. Its only two road wins this season have come at Missouri-KC and at TCU. As you can see, it does not have a good road win yet. Baylor is 11-3 at home this season where it is outscoring opponents by 16.7 points/game.
Home-court advantage has been huge in this series between Iowa State and Baylor. In fact, the home team has won 14 straight meetings dating back to 2001. The home team is 10-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings. That's the kind of evidence I'll gladly back my money with.
This play falls into a system that is 75-36 (67.6%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet on favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (BAYLOR) - revenging a road loss vs opponent against opponent off a home win scoring 85 or more points. Bet Baylor Wednesday.
Nelly
DePaul + over Georgetown
DePaul is just 2-10 in Big East play this season but keep in mind three of those losses came in overtime and another three came in very tight games. The Blue Demons have made some progress this season despite the losing record and credible wins over Fairfield, Auburn, Arizona State, and Providence show as much. DePaul is coming off a win over Rutgers last weekend and five of the last six games through a tough schedule have been very competitive with three overtime losses and a close loss at Marquette. Georgetown is riding high with a seven game winning streak propelling the Hoyas to the top of the Big East. Only two of those wins came by a margin greater than this spread however as this is a team that has won many close games. After big wins over Marquette and Cincinnati in the last two games this is a clear flat spot with a huge contest at Syracuse coming up this weekend. While Georgetown has won eight in a row in this series, three of the last four meetings have been very close games and this will be a much bigger game for the underdog. These teams clash in style with Georgetown averaging nearly 10 fewer points per game on offense and DePaul is a good shooting team that could have some opportunities in a low scoring game. This is a dangerous game for Georgetown and far too many points to give in this situation.
Joe Gavazzi
Oklahoma City -3
Following the Harden for Martin trade before the season, there were questions about the impact on OKC. Those have been clearly answered in a positive way. At no time has that been more definitive than in their two games against Houston that have resulted in near identical victories of 120-98 and 124-94. At a short road favorite price, it makes this a clear second half of the season dominance play on the Thunder. Strengthening our selection is the fact OKC limped into break with a pair of losses. But no coach and no team have been more resilient in recent seasons. In his career, HC Brooks is 100-54 ATS/loss, including 43-19 ATS if his team was favored in that loss. This season, OKC is 10-3 ATS following a loss. Houston performs in a dichotomous way, a streaky team, they are just 8-16 ATS / loss. Each of these teams are outstanding on the offensive end of floor, with Houston averaging 106 PPG and OKC 105 PPG. The difference is in the defense, Thunder allow 7 PPG less than Houston. Expect that to translate into a third consecutive series victory this season.
Colorado St +3
This underdog winner is all about experience - both in terms of the players and the coaches. Highly successful program builder Larry Eustachy stepped into a great situation this year when he inherited a team of five senior starters. Not surprisingly, he has crafted this unit into a record of 21-4, 8-2 in the MWC. His only failures in the league have come on the road when the combination of a strong home court and an excellent opposing coach led his Rams to losses of 7 points at San Diego St and Steve Fisher, and 5 points at New Mexico and Steve Alford. The Rams have all around excellence with a defense allowing 60/39/32. But their real claim to fame comes as the nation's #1 rebounding team, with a +14 margin. That's essential to success when facing the powerful front line of UNLV. The coaching acumen of Eustachy played out in a first meet, 66-61 victory, when he out-coached second year UNLV counterpart Dave Rice. Rice is still learning, but badly outmatched on the sideline by the veteran mentors of this league. And his youthful team, though talented, is comprised mostly of frosh and soph. The numbers prove this to be as Rice is 8-17 ATS vs winning teams, and just 15-27 ATS following a victory. Recently, his Rebels are just 1-5 ATS. Only thing keeping this from a stronger play is UNLV's 14-1 SU record at the Thomas and Mack Center. Don't forget about the NBA tonight. I am 60% on my top plays in the NBA this season. There are (2) of them tonight on my five game card. This card is so strong it may well sweep the board.
Rob Veno
Texas A&M pk at Auburn
Play: Texas A&M
Add Auburn head coach Tony Barbee to a growing list of head coaches whose postgame conferences seem dominated by listing their team’s shortcomings. The frustrated leader let everyone know that he feels Auburn’s leadership, effort and individual talent is not good enough to win games at this point. Barbee got no argument from junior forward Allen Payne who added, “Like coach says — and you know how honest he is — we can’t win these games off talent, we don’t have enough right now. But if we fight and we compete and we put forth the effort that we need to put forth, we’ll be fine in these games.” Not exactly a ringing endorsement. Combine the ultra-negative tone with their 1-9 straight up record over the last 10 games and it becomes extremely difficult to back Auburn in a pick ‘em contest. However, fading them with a more talented and hungrier Texas A&M squad is a nice option. Expect a spirited performance tonight from the Aggies who are still fighting for the .500 mark in conference play and a postseason tournament bid (possible NIT?). The road has not been tremendously kind to A&M whose four losses have all been by single digits (2-4 overall) but tonight they have an opponent they can break through against. Look for the Aggies to take advantage of the unraveling home side with a victory of 4+ points.
LT Profits
Santa Clara +13½
Yes, the Gonzaga Bulldogs are 25-2 and are now ranked third in the polls and sixth in the Pomeroy Ratings, but they have been pummeling mostly the weaker teams of the WCC en route to a 12-0 conference mark and they now face one of the better ones in the Santa Clara Broncos. The Broncos are 19-8 this season and they played the Zags tough in an 81-74 loss in Santa Clara last month. The Broncos were able to hang tough despite going an uncharacteristic 7-for-23 for just 30.4 percent from beyond the three-point line, as this is a team that gets 32.7 percent of its points on three-point shots as opposed to 24.3 percent for Gonzaga, so there is no reason why Santa Clara cannot hang around again with a more normal shooting night. Santa Clara is 7-2 ATS in its last nine road games vs. teams with winning home records.
Bobcats +3
Do not look now but the Charlotte Bobcats are starting to become competitive, as they suddenly have a very nice backcourt with Kemba Walker, Gerald Henderson and Ramon Sessions coming off the bench and a hot big man in Byron Mullens, who recently returned from a sprained ankle and has averaged 18.1 points and 9.1 rebounds in seven games since returning. The Bobcats are seeking a rare winning streak after winning in Orlando last night and they already beat the Detroit Pistons once this season on the road in Auburn Hills. The Detroit defense may struggle with Charlotte’s newfound versatility, as the Pistons are permitting 100.8 points per game on 47.8 percent shooting the last five games. The underdogs are 8-2 in the last 10 head-to-head meetings.
Bob Balfe
New York Knicks +3.5
The last two times these teams have met its be a real snooze fest. I expect the same tonight, but give the edge to the Knicks who are a little bit more healthy right now. There should be rust from both sides tonight after the all star break. With a healthy Carmelo New York can hang with just about anybody in this league. Take the Knicks.
Oklahoma State -1
Oklahoma State beat Kansas on the road. Not many teams have done that in a long time. There comes a point where you have to start to think Oklahoma City is a better basketball team than Kansas. I watched the TCU game last night. How that team beat Kansas is beyond me. Talent is talent and good quality teams don't lose to TCU like teams even on bad nights. I'm not drinking the Kansas cool aid. Take Oklahoma State.
Tom Barton
Utah -3
We can sit down and write about recent play, history, or pure meaning of this game but I want to start with home court advantage. The Jazz traditionally have one of the best home records in the league and their home court this year has been nothing short of excellent. The Jazz carry a 20-6 home record while the Warriors are under .500 on the road.
Utah has won 11 of the last 13 at home and own this Warriors teams. Golden State is trending the wrong way as they have lost 6 straight games and the reason why is very simple, defense or lack there of. The Warriors are giving up 118.0 points per game over the losing streak and have lost by an average of 18.4 points. Now the nightmare run may continue tonight as this team simply is owned by the Jazz.
The Warriors have lost 49 of 60 in Salt Lake City including the playoffs and should have the same sort of struggles yet again tonight.