WUNDERDOG
TCU at Air Force
Pick: Over 129
The Frogs like to get up and down the court, but went through an offensive slump for four games that saw them not get out of the 50s in any of them. The real picture crystalizes on this team and their tempo when you look at the 11 games that surrounded the slump, six before and five after. Those 11 games are more indicitive of what this team is all about as the Frogs averaged close to 79 ppg in the 11. Air Force likes to slow things down, but vs. offensive minded Boise State they allowed 72 and got hit for 81 vs. the Lobos. Despite the slow tempo mindset of the Falcons, it hasn't stopped their home games from finding the way OVER the total as they are 12-4 to the OVER here in their last 16. Play on the OVER in this one.
SPORTS WAGERS
West Virginia +135 over NOTRE DAME
Let's go back to Thanksgiving when the first glimpse that many people had of the Irish was an 87-58 blowout loss against Missouri. Fighting Irish star Tim Abromaitis played in that game against the Tigers but subsequently was lost for the season. The common assumption was that the Irish were in for a long year. That assumption still looked good as recently as mid-January even after a thrilling double-overtime win at Louisville. Notre Dame was just 3-3 in the Big East at that point. They were coming off back-to-back losses and trending in the wrong direction. Brey's team was beaten soundly at home by Connecticut 67-53 and then fell on the road at Rutgers 65-58. Then the 20-0, #1 ranked Syracuse Orange came to South Bend and left with a 67-58 loss, courtesy of the Irish. That game proved to be the turning point in Notre Dame's season. The win against Syracuse tipped off what is now an 8-0 streak, one that has lifted ND into a second-place tie in the Big East standings with Marquette. Heading into tonight's game against West Virginia in South Bend, the Irish are nationally ranked and projected to be a No. 6 seed in the NCAA tournament. Great story indeed but once again we lean to our sell high philosophy, as Notre Dame has accomplished more than expected and a breather or poor outing is forthcoming. The Mountaineers are a team that everyone should fear. Their stock is low with five losses in seven games but they're coming off that confidence building, 20-point win over Pittsburgh. WVU's defense is scary good. They can dominate on the boards and they can hit shots too. They went through their rough stretch already and they're over it. The small line for a ranked team at home strongly suggests the Irish could be in trouble here and we couldn't agree more. Play: West Virginia +135 (Risking 2 units).
Teddy Covers
TCU @ Air Force
Pick: Air Force -2
Air Force came out in their first game following their surprising mid-season coaching change and laid a complete egg, blasted at home by Boise State. But now that they've had some time to settle into a fresh routine, we've seen the Falcons pull off outright upset wins over Wyoming and San Diego State in their last two ballgames. Air Force has legitimate under-the-radar pointspread value at this late stage of the season.
Air Force's recent run of success is somewhat tempo based. The Falcons have been able to slow the game down, playing intense 'in-your-face' defense, masking some of their offensive deficiencies. A slow pace is TCU's worst nightmare -- when the Horned Frogs don't run, they don't win very often. TCU shot 58% from two point range in the first meeting between these two teams, and hit six three pointers, compared to only three made three pointers for Air Force. Despite that stellar shooting effort, TCU didn't cover the 4.5 point spread in their three point home victory.
TCU is 2-8 SU on the road this year. Their last road win came in overtime at Evansville back on December 3rd. Their other road victory came at Houston by a single point back in November. This team is 0-fer the season on the highway in Mountain West play, consistently unable to hit the clutch shot or get the key stop during crunch time. Don't expect that to change tonight, bad news in a pointspread range where they'll likely need a SU win in order to cover this short number.
Rocketman
Indiana Pacers vs. Charlotte Bobcats
Play: Charlotte Bobcats +6
Pacers are 11-23 ATS in their last 34 games following a SU win. Pacers are 9-20-1 ATS in their last 30 Wednesday games. Pacers are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. Pacers are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game. Pacers are 6-22 ATS in their last 28 games playing on 0 days rest. Pacers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400. Pacers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of less than .400. Pacers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a road favorite. Pacers are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a losing SU record. Pacers are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games when their starting 5 players combine for more than 160 minutes of the previous day. Pacers are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games as a road favorite of 5.0-10.5. Pacers are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 vs. Eastern Conference. Pacers are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games following a ATS loss. Pacers are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games as a favorite of 5.0-10.5. Pacers are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games as a favorite. Pacers are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games overall. Bobcats are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game. We'll recommend a small play on Charlotte tonight!
Jeff Scott Sports
5 UNIT PLAY
Rice/ Central Florida Over 130: The Rice owls allowed just 39 points to SMU 2 games, but let's not count that game as the Stangs haven't been able to score on anyone. Now in their last 8 games vs teams not named SMU the Owls have allowed 73.4 ppg, with those games having a total average of 139 ppg, while in their last tow home games vs teams not named SMU there has been an average of 157 ppg being scored. CFL has an average offense, but it's has been better of late as they have averaged 65.4 ppg in their last 5 games and they should have an easy time vs the owls tonight. The Knights have allowed 65.4 ppg in their last 7 games, giving an Owls team a that averages 70 ppg at home an excellent shot at hitting at least 65. I expect both teams to get at least in the high 60's in this one.
4 UNIT PLAYS
Georgia State/ Old Dominion Over 122: Not a lot of high scoring games for these teams this year, but both teams showed over the weekend that they can get up and down the fool and I feel the will have to do it here as neither offense wants to face these tough half court defenses. Georgia State's home games have averaged 125.8 ppg and I see a few more than that here. KEY TRENDS--- OLD DOMINION is 27-10 OVER versus good defensive teams - allowing <=64 points/game after 15+ games since 1997 and 10-2 OVER after covering 4 or 5 of their last 6 against the spread over the last 2 seasons.
Temple -2.5 over LASALLE: The Owls are rolling right now as they have won their last 10 in a row and this once slow down offense has now put 73 or more points in each of those 10 games.Not only have the Owls won 10 in a row, but they have won those games by 13.8 ppg. Lasalle is reeling a bit as as they have lost 3 of their last 4 games. Thier only home loss on the year was to the Billikens, who I feel Temple is just as good as if not better than. Temple is 7-3 ATS the last 10 in the series and they have won the last 6 outright. Both trends should continue here.
3 UNIT PLAYS
Notre Dame/ West Virginia Over 124.5: Google News Play. In looking at recent statements form both coaches you get the Impression that Huggins doesn't feel the Irish can be sped up, but Brey's comments would indicate that the Irish may be running in this game some. They have quick guards that can push the ball and they feel they can get down the floor on this bigger West Virginia squad. Well I feel that the Neer's will look to run right along with the Irish as they are not that good in a half court offense. The Irish may have been slowing the pace down for many of their games, but in their last 4 home games they have averaged 74.5 ppg and those games overall have averaged 136 ppg. West Virginia's last 5 Big East road games (Regulation) have averaged 134 ppg and they averaged 68.6 ppg in those games. The Irish may not have that same defensive intensity as they did during the 2nd half of the Nova game and that could lead to easier scoring by WVU, while ND will get their points at home. Both teams should hit the mid to up 60's in this one.
Long Beach State/ UCSB Over 140.5: Two of the higher scoring teams in the Big West square off tonight as the Gauchos come in averaging 72.9 ppg overall and 77.6 ppg in their last 5 games, while LBS has put up 74 ppg overall and 78.4 ppg in their last 5 games. Neither team has been playing much defense of late as the Gauchos have allowed 69.4 ppg in their last 5 games, while LBS has allowed 68.8 ppg in their last 5 games. This will be an uptempo game and with both of these offenses I just don't see how 145+ points aren't scored in this one.
2 UNIT PLAYS
Nebraska +9.5 over PURDUE: Just too many points for a struggling Boliers squad to be laying. Nebraska is off a 23 point win vs Illinois so they may be playing with some confidence right now. Te Boilers have struggled on defense as they have allowed 76 ppg in their last games and that should allow the Huskers to keep this one close.
CS Northridge +1 over UC Riverside: The Highlanders may be without a couple key players for tonight. neither team is playing well right now, but Northridge does have the game at home and they did beat Riverside of the road earlier in the year. They should do it again here. KEY TRENDS--- UC-RIVERSIDE is 6-21 ATS vs. teams who are called for 3+ more fouls/game than their opponents since 1997, while CS-NORTHRIDGE is 22-9 ATS versus good defensive teams - allowing =45% of their shots over the last 2 seasons.
Appalachian State -4 over THE CITADEL: Play against Home teams as an underdog or pick (THE CITADEL) - off a close win by 3 points or less over a conference rival, playing only their 3rd game in a week. This play is 25-7 the last 5 seasons.