Free Picks: Service Plays for Wednesday, February 2,2010

Marc Lawrence

Hoftstra at George Mason
Prediction: George Mason

Hofstra beat the Mason Jar by a baker?s dozen (as 5-point home dogs) earlier this year ?preserving? their lead in the competitive Colonial Athletic Association. That win snapped a five-game series losing skid but now brings Mason?s 14-3-1 ATS mark when they win straight up with same-season revenge into play. It also ties in nicely to the Pride?s 1-9-1 ATS log when they lose SU as dogs versus a same-season avenging foe and ?cans? any thoughts of a Patriots? straight up win, no cover result. And if the straight up win is a concern, it shouldn?t be: the Patriots are 10-0 SU and 8-1 ATS at home this season. By George, Mason?s five returning starters ?state? their case as the team to beat in the CAA. No back doors left ajar here. We recommend a 1-unit play on George Mason.

Jeff Hochman

Los Angeles Kings vs. Edmonton Oilers
Play: Los Angeles Kings

The LA Kings have too much speed, size, and skill for this current Edmonton team to match-up with. The Oilers worst ranked defense should help the LA Kings break out of its offensive slump. The LA Kings are 8-3 vs. the Northwest while Edmonton is 3-12 vs. the Pacific. The LA Kings have the best goal differential out of all the Last Place teams (+18). I look for this team to make a serious run at a playoff spot!

Frank Jordan

Dallas Mavericks vs. New York Knicks
Play: New York Knicks -1.5

Dallas comes into this game on a five game winning streak, 32-15 over all, 13-7 on the road and 13-8 against the East. New York despite being just 3-7 in their last 10 games is coming off a win, are 13-9 at home, and 10-12 against the West. In this one look for New York to make it back to back wins as they hold Dirk in check and explode on the offensive end. Play New York

Jim Feist

New Orleans Hornets vs. Oklahoma City Thunder
Take: Oklahoma City Thunder -7

Reason: First place Oklahoma City is dynamite at home (17-7) and rested. They take on a tired New Orleans tam playing its 4th game in 5 nights, including the second of a back to back spot after playing Washington last night. The Hornets are 7-16-1 ATS in their last 24 vs. the Western Conference. Oklahoma City, meanwhile, is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 vs. NBA Southwest and the Thunder are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. Play Oklahoma City!

Tom Freese

Chicago Bulls at Los Angeles Clippers
Prediction: Chicago Bulls

The Clippers are 19-28 straight up this year. Los Angeles is 2-5 ATS their last 7 games as home underdogs. The Clippers are 1-4 ATS their last 5 games as underdogs of 0.5 to 4.5 points. Chicago is 33-14 straight up this year. The Bulls are 40-18-3 ATS their last 61 Conference games. Chicago is 4-1 ATS their last 5 games. The Bulls are 23-9 ATS their last 32 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Chicago is 11-3 ATS their last 14 games when playing with 3 or more days rest.

MTi Sports

Houston Rockets at Utah Jazz
Prediction: Houston Rockets

The Rockets are 7-0 ATS (10.9 ppg) off an overtime loss, 4-0 ATS (7.1 ppg) when seeking revenge for a loss in which they led at the end of the third quarter and 7-0 ATS (9.0 ppg) after a loss in which Chuck Hayes scored fewer than 10 points. The Jazz are 0-7 ATS (-17.9 ppg) after a win at home in which Paul Millsap had more turnovers than assists, 0-5 ATS (-8.4 ppg) after a win in which Al Jefferson had a double-double and 0-6 ATS (-10.1 ppg) after a win in which they scored fewer points than expected. Grab the 2.5.

Craig Trapp

Mississippi State vs. Alabama
Play: Mississippi State +12

Love playing the revenge factor and this game is a prime example. MISS ST was embarrassed at home by this ALA team earlier this month. ALA has had some big wins but think this is great letdown game for them. Look for a close game but definitely a cover here by MISS ST

Jimmy Boyd

1 Unit on Chicago Bulls -2

The Clippers are playing well, but the Bulls are playing better. Chicago has won 5 in a row and 10 of 12, and it will be out to avenge an earlier season 1-point home loss to the Clippers. In fact, the Clippers have quietly won 3 straight in this series, and you can bet that's not sitting well with Derrick Rose and company. Going to the numbers we find that plays on road teams, when the line is +3 to -3, out to avenge a home upset loss to an opponent, provided they are a good team winning 60% to 75% of their games and playing a team with a losing record, are an impressive 40-16 ATS since 1996. The Clippers have put up some good offensive numbers this season, but Chicago is a much improved defensive team under coach Thibodeau. In fact, the Bulls are 15-5 ATS versus good offensive teams scoring 99+ points/game this season. These are defeating these teams by an average score of 101.3 to 93.9. I like the way the Clippers are playing, but they'll have their work cut out for themselves tonight, especially without the services of Eric Gordon. Bet the Bulls.

Tom Stryker

Delaware vs. Old Dominion
Play: Old Dominion -14½

Back in early December, Old Dominion was a 10-point favorite at Delaware and lost the game 75-67. The Monarchs will be all about revenge when the Fightin' Blue Hens visit The Ted on Wednesday night.

With three straight road games on deck at George Mason, William & Mary and VCU, ODU needs this game like blood. Picked to win the conference before the season started, the Monarchs are currently tied for third-place in the CAA and they must make their move right now. The fact that this game is being played inside the Ted Constant Convocation Center is huge for head coach Blaine Taylor and his kids. At home, Old Dominion has racked up an impressive 41-5 SU record dating back to the start of the 2008-09 season including a blistering 22-3 SU in conference play.

Fading Delaware on the CAA road shouldn't be a problem for any investor. The Fightin' Blue Hens have lost their punch posting a soft 11-51 SU record in their last 62 games. Statistically speaking, this isn't the greatest matchup for UD either. The Blue Hens average only 62.1 points per game and get killed on the boards (-1.2 rebounding margin). Matched up against a Monarch's defense that is ranked first in the conference and ninth nationally in scoring defense (58.4 ppg) and tops in the CAA and second nationally in rebounding margin (+10.9), Delaware will be in for a very long evening!

When taking the floor with same season single revenge, ODU has been tough to beat posting a strong 14-2 SU and 12-4 ATS record in its last 16 games including a perfect four-for-four in this role priced as a favorite of -8 or more! The Monarchs torched the twine in their last contest connecting on 62.7 percent of their shots against Towson. Look for Coach Taylor's troops to keep it rolling here. Take Old Dominion.

BIG AL

Indiana @ Cleveland
PICK: Cleveland +6

Granted, the Cavs are the league's worst team -- by far -- this season, but NBA teams tend to do well if they're on a losing streak of more than 10 games. Since 1990, such teams are a very profitable 190-148 ATS, for a 56.2 percent win rate. Of course, the Cavs have lost A LOT more than 11 games, as their current number sits on 21 straight losses. But the Pacers have lost 14 of their last 15 road games straight-up, so they're no bargain either. Take the home dog Cavaliers on this Wednesday, as we'll look for Byron Scott's crew to finally get in the Win Column in 2011.

JR O'Donnell

Denver -8

Laying it down heavy tonight boys on these High Flying 28-20 Denver Nuggets - the points tonight as they NEED TO hang up a much needed W at home. These Nuggets got pasted out East by the Sixers and Nets by a combined 27 points...ughhhhhhhhhhhhh . The Nuggets are a terrible play when they are held to UNDER 100 POINTS.... 2-13-1 Ats mark.

The Pepsi Center has been a sweet place to play for the Nuggets as Denver checks in @ 17-3 against Portland T Blazers & when Mello goes for 19 or more points they are a perfect 11-0. The Portland Trail Blazers are 0-5 the last 5 at Denver and they been on the wrong end the last 5 by nearly 15 points. The Nuggets are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games following a road trip of 7 or more days & the home team is 5-0 ats the last 5 in the series............. 6-0 after tonight's W.....Nuggets by 17 to 20..........

SPORTS WAGERS

MINNESOTA +117 over Memphis

After three wins in a row and six in past seven, capped by a victory over the Magic on Sunday, the Grizz have suddenly caught the attention of bettors. Now they’ll be asked to lay a small number over the weaker T-Wolves and that could prove to be a dangerous proposition. The Grizzlies stock is at its highest point of the season and that’s seldom the right time to step in. After a series of very nice wins, Memphis could get caught napping here. Besides, the T-Wolves are not quite the pushovers they may appear to be. They’ve lost 11 of 13 games but have been in position to win several of them. Among those defeats was a 3-point loss to the Spurs, a 4-point loss to the Rockets, a 1-point loss to the Thunder and a 3-point loss to the Celtics. The T-Wolves are ready to win and it could easily start here. Play: Minnesota +117 (Risking 2 units).

Los Angeles -½ +116 over EDMONTON

Much prefer a team playing back-to-back after a layoff than a team that has been off a week and that’s the situation here. The Kings lost in a shootout last night but were clearly the better team as they dominated the second and third periods. Had it not been for the goaltending of Niklas Backstrom, LA likely would have won by three or four goals. The Kings remain in 11th place in the West, adding urgency to this one as Calgary, San Jose, Minnesota and Chicago, the teams that they’re currently jammed up with for final playoff spots, all won last night. The Kings will play the 2nd leg of a 10-game trip here before facing a stiffer quartet in Calgary, Pittsburgh, Washington and Philly. This is a pivotal game for the Kings and if they play anything like they did last night they’ll bury this host. They are better than their 11th place ranking may indicate. The Kings have a notably better goal-differential than most teams in the top half of the standings. In a pivotal game, against an inferior foe, LA gets the much-needed win. Play: Los Angeles -½ +116 (Risking 2 units)

WUNDERDOG

William & Mary at James Madison
Pick: William & Mary +14

The James Madison Dukes are the surprise of the Colonial Conference this season at 17-6 a, and have dropped just one at home all season. William & Mary lost a lot of pieces to their surprise 22 win team of a year ago and have just one win to show for 10 road efforts. While the wins have been hard to come by for the Tribe, they are getting better, but it is showing up not in the win column. However, their ATS success is now 5-3 over their last 8 games. While they have improved, at the same time they have not been a dog of more than 10 in conference play so this appears to be inflated. They have been under the radar recently and in their last 35 as a dog have posted a 25-10 ATS mark. I'll go with William & Mary here.

James Patrick

Delaware vs. Old Dominion

In Wednesday College Basketball action the Old Dominion Monarchs play host to the Blue Hens of Delaware and the Monarchs are in a payback mode after shocking 8-point loss at Newark back on Dec. 4. The Big Man's selection in NCAA College Basketball is Old Dominion Monarchs.