Free Picks: Service Plays for Wednesday, February 23,2011

Marc Lawrence

Kansas State at Nebraska
Prediction: Nebraska

Just hours after Kansas replaced Ohio State as the nation’s No. 1 team last Monday, the Jayhawks were dismantled in Manhattan by their hated arch-rivals, Kansas State, 84-68. But life on the Big 12 road has been altogether too rocky for head coach Frank Martin and his Wildcats: the purple cats have struggled to an abysmal 8-20 ATS mark in their last 28 games away from Bramlage Coliseum – including 3-12 ATS versus avenging foes – and a lifeless 0-6 ATS this year. K-State’s 16-point handling of the Huskers back on 2/2 also sets the table for their money-burning 8-19 ATS record against conference opponents looking to settle the score for a double-digit, same-season defeat. Our database offers further support for Big Red by noting the Huskers’ recent 13-7 ATS series edge, including a solid 11-4 ATS when playing with revenge. And with the host owning a 14-6 ATS advantage when these two tangle, we expect Nebraska to be seeing red when they take the court tonight. K-State’s monster upset of Kansas brings some added value to the Huskers’ side, too. The home court advantage in Big 12 conference games continues. We recommend a 1-unit play on Nebraska.

Sam Martin

Wisconsin at Michigan
Prediction: Michigan

Bad spot for Wisconsin here tonight as they have to cover an inflated line (likely due to the big home win against Ohio State recently), but they are not a good road team and enter this game with a 5-6 SU record away from home on the season. That record gets even worse in Big Ten play, as they have dropped four of their six conference road contests, and have scored 62 points or less in five of those six games. Michigan is under the radar in the Big Ten, and have quietly put together a 6-2 run. Badgers don't play well on the road, and we look for Michigan to win this game outright! 5* Play on Michigan.

Hollywood Sports

Houston Rockets at Cleveland Cavaliers
Prediction: Houston Rockets

The Rockets (27-31) wanted to get off to a good start after the All-Star break as they will be playing seven of their next nine games on the road -- and they did just that by defeating the Pistons in Detroit last night by a 108-100 score. Houston has now covered 6 of their last 7 road games and they take care of business against the bottom teams in the league as they have covered 9 of their last 12 road games against teams with a home winning percentage below 40%. While the Rockets are just 11-18 on the road, Cleveland (10-46) is only 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 games against teams with a road winning mark below 40%. The Cavs are just 7-19 at home this season but they did enter the break with a huge upset win over the Lakers. Lightning is unlikely to strike again so quickly. Lay the points with the Rockets.

VEGAS EXPERTS

Atlanta Hawks at Phoenix Suns

Atlanta does not play particularly well on the road nor with revenge (9-22 ATS when seeking revenge for a home loss), so we will look to lay the points tonight when they visit the favored Phoenix Suns, who have covered the spread each of the last four meetings with the Hawks. Additionally, Phoenix gets the benefit of having enjoyed an extra day off as Atlanta got blown out last night by the Lakers. Look for the Suns to start the second half out with an easy cover!

Play on: Phoenix

Rob Vinciletti

Depaul vs. St Johns
Play: Depaul +15

Depaul may be a cellar dweller in the Big East, but they do cash frequently as a dog. They are 12-5 ats vs winning teams and 14-6 ats as a road dog of 12.5 or higher, including 4-1 this season. They just took Villanova down to the wire on Saturday nearly pulling off the upset. Tonight they take on a St. Johns team in let down mode having won 4 straight games as an underdog and coming off a Huge upset of then #4 Pittsburgh. In that game they were aided with several late foul calls going their way. While they need a late bucket to seal it. They did play very well. Now they have a Depaul team that can play very tough and have Villanova on deck. The Red Storm have failed both times ats as a home favorite of 12.5 or more this season. This game looks like a classic win and no cover. Take the Points with Depaul.

Jim Feist

Kings at Magic
Pick: Magic

Orlando can struggle against the top teams at times, but they roll over soft clubs. The Magic are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games vs. a team with a winning percentage below .400. This is a tough situational spot for Sacramento, a young, bad road team playing the second of a back to back spot, at Miami last night. Orlando, though, is well rested and 21-8 at home. The Magic are 35-16-2 ATS in their last 53 vs. NBA Pacific and the Kings are 0-5 ATS in the last 5 meetings. Play the Magic!

James Patrick Sports

Bulls vs. Raptors

Bulls are 10-4 ATS in the last 14 meetings in Toronto and Chicago owns a (12-3) ATS in their last (15) games playing on (3) or more days rest. The Bulls get the services of Big Man Joakim Noah back for the second half season and he'll be available tonight at the Air Canada Center. Big Game James Patrick's Wednesday complimentary selection is Chicago Bulls.

Cajun Sports

Atlanta Hawks vs. Phoenix Suns
Selection: Atlanta Hawks +3

The high hopes of the Phoenix Suns have been dashed by their tenth position in the West heading into the break. The Suns have dropped four of their last five contests against the number when playing at US Airways Arena. These two met back in November and the Suns handed the Hawks their first loss of the season shooting 57 percent from the field in Atlanta. Hawks guard Joe Johnson scorched them for thirty-four in the loss and teammate center Al Horford dropped thirty on the Suns defense that day. Atlanta had matchup issues in that game that they do not have tonight and this should be a much different outcome as we expect the Hawks to give the Suns all they can handle and shock them in the desert with a road victory. Atlanta coming off an ATS loss as an underdog in their last two games has bounced back with a record of 17-7 ATS with games in this price range. If they are an underdog, their record improves to 11-3 ATS and if they are on the non-conference road, they are a perfect 6-0 against the number. The Phoenix Suns coming off two home games and now a home favorite in this price range are just 4-13-1 ATS. If they went over as a home underdog in their last game and now a favorite they are a miserable 0-6-1 ATS in that situation. A check of our systems database revealed three powerful league-wide winners that are active for tonight’s game. Play AGAINST NBA home teams after losing and going over as a home underdog in their last game, these teams are 92-136-8 ATS. If they are installed as a home favorite in this situation, they are 37-70-2 ATS. If they lost as a home underdog in their last game and now installed as a home favorite in this price range they are only 26-47-1 ATS. Take the points with the Hawks as they shock the Suns and get a road victory on Wednesday night in the desert.

Brent Brooks

Oklahoma +13

The search for late season value can take you to some strange places.

The last time the Aggies beat a team by enough to cover the spread in this game was the last time they faced the Sooners. They won in Norman by 17 and yet the Sooners are only getting 13 on the road? Exactly. Oklahoma is playing much better ball over the last few weeks and oddsmakers know it. A five game ATS winning streak over some middle echelon Big 12 teams followed by some predictable large margin losses at the hands of K State, Missouri and Texas.

So the question in this game is - can the Aggies play like a top tier team and completely crush the Sooners as they did a few weeks ago? We're placing this bet after watching the Aggies do just enough to get back lately and knowing the Sooners are playing much better ball as reflected in the line. We're taking the points and the dog here.

Arkansas +7

Imagine being told you'll be an NBA first rounder if you have a solid season at Kentucky. With next to zero veteran leadership on the team, it will be up to you and other players with no college experience to advance to the tournament and make a statement. You'll need to catch the eyes of NBA scouts whilst navigating the pressures and pitfalls of college life. You'll need to learn how to win on the road while wearing the SEC jersey that brings out the most vinegar in opposing teams and their rapid fans.

Its a lot to juggle and the Cats have not done it well. Despite being extremely talented, they have either played poorly on the road or have played well only to self destruct at crucial junctures in the closing moments. This hasn't happened just once but many times - games at Ole Miss (huge blown lead) and at Vanderbilt (key turnovers and slow defensive rotations) stand out in recent memory.

The Kentucky guards (Knight & Lamb in particular) are slenderly built at can at times be hesitant to drive the lane and when they do drive they are prone to turning the ball over when encountering contact. Also, if Kentucky gets into foul trouble, their lack of depth can come create issues.

They will place the more talented team on the court in this game. However, that hasn't mattered in so many road games so far this year. We are compelled to grab the seven points and back the Razorbacks here. Its "Rally Towel" night and while its not Senior Night, you can be sure the home crowd will relish every Hog bucket and cheer for their team to send "Big Blue" to yet another road loss.

JR O'Donnell

Georgia Tech -5

Come On Vegas... 11-15 Geo tech Yellow Jackets -"5" and a dismal 3-9 in the ACC hosts the Cavs @ Alexander Memorial Coliseum. These Jackets have been horrible as of late & have scored just 63 points and shot just 36.2 percent during its last seven games even with a non-conference win over Tenn Chattanooga.

The Jackets do have a flat out stud in Jr. Shumpert a 6-6 guard from Oak Park, Ill., who is looking to become only the fourth player in ACC history to lead his team in scoring, rebounding, assists and steals .On the flip side the eight of its last 11 games and a poor The Cavaliers are 1-5 on the road in the ACC this year, 2-6 in all games.

Tech lost to these Cavs on Jan 22nd and Jr O feels that tonight they return the favor. These Jackets have had not to much to get excited about this year. How about 9100 screaming fans and Espn U to get you a solid 10 point W. The #'s are strong here boys.... Home team is 8-3 ATS in the last 11 meetings & these Vir Cavaliers are 2-7-1 ATS in the last 10 meetings in Georgia Tech.

Craig Trapp

Temple vs. Duke
Play: Temple +13½

Love great point guard play at this point of the season and Fernandez for TEM is the best PG in this game. Duke has been getting it done against the weakest ACC in years. Last two good teams Duke played they did not cover (STJ and UNC). Not thinking TEM will win but they have lot to prove for seeding in postseason and keeping this under double digits is too easy.

David Chan

Sharks @ Penguins
PICK: Under 5

I bet value where I see it and believe this game will be a hard-fought, grinding, low-scoring affair.

We've now hit back to back "free premium" selections, and we'll look for another easy victory here with this offering.

Since the break, the Sharks have been rock solid on the defensive end of the puck, and I look for that trend to continue today against the struggling Pens; San Jose has not allowed more than three goals during a win streak that's seen it win 13 of its last 16; its allowed an average of just 1.81 goals over that span.

Although they allowed three goals last night, the Sharks did skate away with the 4-3 victory in Detroit.

The Pens are struggling mightily without their captain in the lineup, scoring just 14-goals over their last eight-games.

And that's bad news for a Pittsburgh team that hasn't scored more than two-goals vs. the Sharks in seven meetings since 2002 (note that the total has gone "under" the number in 10 of the Penguins 15 non-conference games this season).

Consider a second look at the UNDER.

EZWINNERS

DePaul Blue Demons +14.5

The Johnnies are playing some very good basketball right now. The Red Storm has won four straight games against UCONN, Cincinnati, Marquette and Pittsburgh and for the first time in 11 years, St. John's is ranked as one of the Top 25 teams in the nation. In all four of those wins, St. Johns was the underdog, but tonight the Red Storm is in a different role as they are the favorite against what appears to be a lesser opponent and not only are they expected to win, they are expect to win by a large margin. This could be a real flat spot for the Johnnies as they face a DePaul team that is only 7-19, but the Blue Demons are playing very competitive basketball recently. DePaul has only won once in their last five games, but they are 5-0 against the spread in those games and gave away a win against Villanova on Saturday. This will be a tougher game than expected for St. Johns. The Red Storm is only 1-6-1 against the spread in their last eight home games against a team with a losing road record and DePaul is 18-7-1 against the spread the last twenty six times they have been a road underdog of 13 or more points. Take the points.

Tom Freese

Atlanta at Phoenix
Play: Atlanta

Phoenix is 27-27 straight up this year. The Suns are 5-13-2 ATS their last 20 games following an ATS loss. The Suns are 1-4 ATS their last 5 home games and they are 1-5-1 ATS their last 7 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Atlanta is 34-22 straight up this year. The Hawks are 6-1 ATS their last 7 games when playing with no days of rest. Atlanta is 6-2 ATS off an ATS loss. Atlanta is 7-3 ATS their last 10 games off a straight loss. The Hawks are 5-2 ATS their last 7 games as an underdog of 0.5 to 4.5 points.