SPORTS WAGERS
San Jose -½ +121 over PITTSBURGH
Yeah, the Pens play hard and give it everything they got but so do the Minnesota Timberwolves. The point is, if the Pens iced this line-up from the start of the season they’d be dead last in the NHL and frankly they’re getting way too much credit. The list of injuries is growing, as now Paul Martin and his veteran presence is out and they also lost Alex Goligoski in a trade with the Stars. James Neal is a good acquisition for down the road but for now, he’s not going to be an impact player with every other offensive player on the rack. The Sharkies are red-hot. They improved to 13-2-1 over their last 16 games with a 4-3 win over the then red-hot Red Wings last night. They have not allowed more than three goals in a game in 16 straight and counting. Two goals could get a cover here. Three almost guarantees a cover and as long as these sweet prices are being offered against the Pens, you can pencil us in until Sid Crosby and some of the other cast returns. Play: San Jose -½ +121 (Risking 2 units).
BUFFALO -½ +100 over Atlanta
Forget about hockey on the ice for a moment. Let’s direct our attention to the Sabres new owner, Terry Pegula and his inspiring and uplifting press conference yesterday. Among other things, here’s what he had to say. “After opening his speech by saying "Who am I? I'm a Sabres fan and have been since 1975," he endeared himself to Sabres fans right off the bat by getting choked up twice - once while thanking Tom Golisano for "Saving my hockey team," and again while looking across the room and waxing nostalgic about Sabres legend Gilbert Perreault, saying "You are my hero." He also added, “From this point forward, the Buffalo Sabres' reason for existence will be to win the Stanley Cup – and - "Starting today, there will be no financial mandates on the Buffalo Sabres hockey department." Pegula went on to say that this mandate will not only include the salary cap but also the scouting department, saying that since there's no salary cap on the scouting department, there's no limit to the amount of money he can pour into it, for both human and video scouting. He also talked about bringing in more player development coaches, to help improve the finding, developing, and keeping of our young players. "Winning is not a goal, it is a belief," said Pegula. He also assured that Lindy Ruff and Darcy Regier would remain with the team and Pegula keeps his word. He talked about Regier being handcuffed in the past, and then reassured everyone that he would give Darcy all the financial backing he needs. How do you think that pair is feeling today? They’re ecstatic, that’s how. Now let’s get back to the ice. The players and coaches today can’t wait to get on the ice and show their new owner what they’re made of. That speech he delivered made the whole city delirious and we can’t imagine for a second the Sabres not responding. Oh, and they couldn’t have handpicked a more ripe team to get beat. The Thrashers have lost 19 of 26. They’re 1-6-1 in February. They’re coming off two West coast games in Phoenix and Edmonton and will travel back East for this one. Mentally, the Thrashers are a beaten down team while the Sabres just received a jolt of life. Expect Buffalo to come out flying and give it everything they have for a run at the playoffs for their exciting new owner. Play: Buffalo -½ +100 (Risking 2 units).
Info Plays
3* Phoenix Suns -3
Reasons why Phoenix Suns will cover:
1) Phoenix is 17-6 ATS when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 70%) - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
2) The Hawks got crushed by the Lakers last night, and have never matched up well with teams like the Suns, as they are 6-21 ATS in road games versus teams who attempt 18 or more 3 point shots/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons. Phoenix is 4-1 ATS vs Atlanta in the last 5 games.
3) Play on home teams off a home loss, extremely well rested team - playing 3 or less games in 10 days. It's 51-19 over the last 5 seasons!
SPORTS WAGERS
Temple +13½ over DUKE
Rarely should you play Duke because they’re the most popular team in the country and they’re always overpriced. This one is no different and the fact that they’re a 13½-point favorite over a quality team like the Owls is ludicrous. Hell, Temple can win this game outright. The Dukies shot to the top of the rankings once again after Ohio St and Texas both lost on the weekend and the Blue Devils won big over a putrid Yellow Jacket club. The Dukies record and stats are completely skewed because of a weak schedule and a weak ACC. They’re not a great team and they’re certainly not the #1 team in the country. The Owls play in a weaker A-10 but they have some nice wins and a very mice four-point loss at Villanova. The Owls beat Georgetown and Maryland earlier in they’ve also won seven in a row. These out-of-conference games scheduled in the middle of the conference schedule rarely turns out well for the favorite and with Duke having Virginia Tech on deck on Saturday, this mid-week game is not going to get them jacked up too much. The Owls will definitely be jacked up and you can expect this one to be scary close. Play: #747 Temple (Risking 2.16 units to win 2).
INDIANA +5½/+195 over Purdue
This is simply a trouble spot for the Boilermakers after they knocked off both Wisconsin and Ohio St in back-to-back home games last week. That win over the Buckeyes on Sunday was huge and a letdown in this spot with Michigan St. on deck is very likely. Also note that the Boilermakers have just one win in their last five road games. Talent wise, Indiana is the inferior team by far. They’re 0-9 on the road but they’re 12-4 at home with wins over Minnesota and previously ranked Illinois among them. So, you can analyze this game with X’s and O’s all you want and you’re going to come up with the same thing. Purdue is the better team and it’s not close. However, the better team doesn’t always win and in a sport that’s lined with superior teams that are supposed to win on the road but very often don’t, we’ll side with the situational advantage that the Hoosiers have in this one. Play: Indiana +5½ (Risking 1.1 units to win 1) Play Indiana +195 (Risking 1 unit).
Kansas State +107 over NEBRASKA
Kudos to the Cornhuskers for knocking off the top ranked Buckeyes on Saturday. Let’s also not forget that these are not pros, they’re kids and the whole team celebrated well into the night. There were very likely some cheerleaders among those celebrating. It was one of the biggest wins for the program in years and it extended Nebraska’s winning streak to three. Buy low and sell high and now we’re selling. Prior to winning its last three, Nebraska had dropped six of eight. This is a very beatable team and you can double that after a win over Texas. Enter the Wildcats, a team that has won four of five and beat Nebraska by 16 on Feb 2. Not a lot separates these two in terms of talent and records but the big difference once again is the situation and it doesn’t favor the home side. Play: #793 Kansas State +107 (Risking 2 units).
Nelly
Texas Tech + over Colorado
Colorado has lost seven of the last nine games to fall off the map in the Big XII despite looking like a NCAA tournament candidate earlier in the year. The most recent road games have been disastrous and the only road win for the season in conference play came at a shorthanded Kansas State early in the season. Colorado has lost badly in four of the last five road games and the home wins in recent weeks have not been overly impressive either. Texas Tech has covered in seven of the last eight games and despite the ugly overall record this is a team that is putting together competitive games. The Red Raiders won at Baylor last weekend and has wins over Oklahoma State and Nebraska in recent home games. Kansas won easily in Lubbock but Texas A&M barely survived. Colorado is just 3-8 ATS on the road this season and the home team has won six of the last seven meetings between these teams.
Jimmy Boyd
1 Unit on New Mexico -2
Motivated by 3 straight defeats, and hungry to avenge a 1-point loss at UNLV last month, expect the Lobos to take care of business at home tonight. Since coach Alford came to town, New Mexico has been dominant on its home floor. In fact, the Lobos are an impressive 41-21 ATS in all home games under coach Alford. It is also worth noting that the Lobos are 12-2 at home this season, where they are winning by an average of 16.6 points. History also supports this being a favorable spot for New Mexico. Consider that plays on a favorite looking to avenge a same season loss to an opponent, provided they are coming off a home upset loss to a conference rival, are 72-37 ATS the last 5 seasons. Teams fitting into this situation are winning by an average of 7.8 points. The Runnin' Rebels are just 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games as an underdog. We'll play against them in the underdog role tonight.
Matt Fargo
Los Angeles Lakers vs. Portland Trail Blazers
Play: Los Angeles Lakers -2
We won with the Lakers last night and we jump back on them here. They finished the first half on a seven-game roadtrip and it started out great with a 4-0 record but they dropped their last three games including an embarrassing loss against Cleveland, a team they defeated earlier in the season by 55 points. The time off was a much needed break and Los Angeles showed last night it won’t be going down without a fight as it romped over Atlanta. A loss here basically makes last night’s win meaning less. We won with the Blazers in their final game prior to the All-Star break as they defeated New Orleans to run their winning streak to six games. That is a season high consecutive win total but it came at a horrible time as any momentum that it gained was lost with the extended time off. The time off may have helped in another regard as the Blazers are expected to get Brandon Roy back tonight but his long time away may actually hurt Portland tonight as it had some solid chemistry going while he was away. The Lakers are 19-11 on the road this season and the 19 road wins are tied for third most in the league so any talk of a Lakers demise is not justified quite yet. Obviously the last three road games did not go well as mentioned earlier but there is a bigger sense of urgency right now for Los Angeles. The Lakers are 7-8 against teams ranked in the top ten but they are 10-3 against teams outside the top ten but in the top half of the league and that is where Portland sits. Portland is 23-7 against teams ranked in the bottom half of the league but just 5-14 against teams ranked in the top ten. The Lakers fall into a solid situation as well. Play on road teams where the line is +3 to -3 that are averaging 102 ppg going up against teams allowing between 92 and 98 ppg, after a win by 20 points or more. This situation is 28-7 ATS (80 percent) since 1996. The Lakers are 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven games as a road favorite of fewer than five points. 3* Los Angeles Lakers
Tony George
Kansas State vs. Nebraska
Play: Nebraska -1.5
This is the biggest game in the last 5 years at Nebraska without question. Yes bigger than the Texas game on Saturday where the defensive mined Huskers took down the number 3 team in the nation. They also are avenging a bad loss at K State last month. K State is a different animal on the road than at home home, and Nebraska has went 16-1 at home with their only loss to Kansas, and they have defeated 3 ranked teams in Lincoln this year. K State 0-5 ATS on the road their last 5 roadies, and Nebraska also has a 3.5 point home court advanatge on my power ratings, and some serious confidence as well.
Doc Sadler will have them ready and focused, as he is one of the most underrated coaches in the Big 12, and I expect a series split in what should be one of the most competitive games today on ESPN U tonight. Husker fever alive and well, and without Pullen getting open looks all night for K State, the Husker defense is the KEY in this game that makes a difference. K State struggled with good defensive teams, and NU maybe the best in the Big 12 without an equal.
Stan Lisowski
San Antonio Spurs
The Thunder are a tough club, but they are playing the Spurs here off of a game last night while San Antonio is off of a loss. Both situations favor the Texas club, as the Spurs are 7-3 when rested against a team who played last night, and they stand 8-1 straight up off of an outright beat, covering 7 of those games. San Antonio is 25-2 outright as a home favorite this season, winning those games by an 11 point average.
Steve Merril
Miami Florida vs. Boston College
Play: Boston College -3
These two teams just met last month in Florida with the Hurricanes escaping with a 72-71 win over the Eagles. That was Miami’s only win in a stretch of 7 games in the month of January. This month has been kinder to the Hurricanes as they are 4-2 so far. However, they covered just 1 of those 6 pointspreads, and that came out of conference against NC Greensboro. In ACC play, the Hurricanes beat three of the weakest teams in the conference (Georgia Tech, Virginia, and Wake Forest) and none of those wins were pretty as they came by 1, 2, and 2 points. Miami just isn’t a very good team, and another loss appears imminent at Boston College tonight. The Eagles come off an impressive close loss at surging North Carolina. BC lost that game 48-46 in Chapel Hill; a much different outcome than when the Tar Heels beat them 106-74 just three weeks prior. That shows that BC has improved despite going just 2-2 since the NC blowout loss. In the first meeting in Miami, Boston College actually played better than the Hurricanes even though they lost. The Eagles out-shot them (46.6%-41%) from the floor, but the difference came at the free throw line where Miami held a 5-point advantage after connecting on 93.3% of their attempts. If that game repeats itself tonight, Boston College should get the win and cover here because they should get the benefit of the home whistle this time around.
Dave Price
1 Unit on OKC Thunder +7.5
Motivated by an embarrassing 101-74 loss to the Spurs last month, expect the Thunder to take San Antonio right down to the wire tonight. The Thunder have been terrific in revenge spots. In fact, they are 12-1 ATS in road games when looking to avenge a loss to an opponent of 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons. The Thunder are bouncing back to win these contests by an average score of 101.3 to 101.2. Take the Thunder tonight.
BIG AL
Oklahoma City @ San Antonio
PICK: San Antonio -7
This game is one of two great games on tonight's schedule (the other being the Lakers at Portland), and it will be televised by ESPN (along with the Clippers/Hornets game). Last year, the Spurs and Thunder played four very competitive games, with the average margin of victory being 3.75 points. San Antonio won and covered the last three last season, and has also won the two games this year. The difference, though, is that this season, both games have been blowouts, with San Antone winning 117-104 and 101-74. The Spurs play tonight with 5 days of rest, and the Spurs are a solid 100-72 ATS when they've had at least 2 days of rest. Also, the Spurs are 25-2 straight-up and 15-11-1 ATS at home this year. One of the reasons for the Spurs' dominance, of late, over the Thunder is that San Antonio executes as well as any team in the league, and unless a team plays great defense, San Antonio will pick it apart. Unfortunately for Scott Brooks, his troops aren't the best defensive unit in the league. Look for the Spurs to wear down the Thunder tonight. Lay the points.
SPORTS WAGERS
Milwaukee +7 over NEW YORK
The Gardens will be a mad house tonight, as all eyes will be on the new-look Knicks and their savior Carmelo Anthony. The networks are still celebrating. Thing is, the Knicks still gave up a lot and there is going to be am adjustment period and that you can count on. Yes, Melo is one of the best, bar none but it’s been a crazy 48 hours for him and everybody else and this is not the time to be spotting seven points. We also like the fact that the Bucks played last night. They have a game under their belt after the break and the Knicks always bring out the best in them. Milwaukee has won four straight meetings with New York, eight of nine in the series overall, and four consecutive visits to MSG. The Bucks haven’t lost a road game to the Knicks since 2007. So, what we have here is a overpriced Knicks team that everyone is looking to bet against a Bucks team is getting seven points and that’s rock solid defensively. Play: Milwaukee +7 (Risking 2.1 units to win 2).
Washington +9½ over PHILADELPHIA
Once again we turn our attentions to a team that played last night against a team that has been off for almost a full week. It’s difficult to get back into the swing of things and it could be especially difficult for a 76er team that was on a roll before the break. Philly had a great week before the break by winning three of four and knocking off the then 45-9 Spurs. These two hooked up on Jan 5 in Philly and the 76ers won by 12. That’s was under much better conditions than this for the home side and it’s also worth noting that Washington had won the previous five games against Philly straight up. This is another good spot for them and it wouldn’t surprise us one bit to see an upset. Play: Washington +9½ (Risking 2.06 units to win 2).
Telly
1 of 3 Free Plays Today
Colorado St. +14
Sports Insights
NC State (+6) over North Carolina
This is a rivalry game in which two teams are heading in opposite directions. NC State has lost 8 of their last 11 games including a 20-point loss to the Tar Heels on January 29th. Meanwhile, UNC has climbed up to 19 in the national polls and have won 8 of their last 9 games. Their only loss in that stretch came to their other rival, Duke, by six points.
Despite the blowout in their last matchup, the opening line favored North Carolina by five points. Nearly every bettor seems to think this line is way off, as 87% of the bets have come in on the road favorite.
These lopsided percentages our definitely in line with our Square Play philosophy. Many bettors are afraid to take these "ugly games" because it's hard to convince yourself that the lesser team can pull through, but it happens more often than you would think.
Our latest blog post highlights Sports Insights' Square Plays in all sports throughout the year and shows some great results for our members.
Wunderdog Sports
Los Angeles Clippers vs. New Orleans Hornets
Play: Los Angeles Clippers +7
The LA Clippers opened the season at 1-13 and were off to another disasterous season. They have improved tremendously since the first 16 games as they have since been 20-23 and an even better 16-15 in their last 31. New Orleans has defined its season with a pair of hot stretches where they won eight and ten games in a row. Take those streaks out of the equation and the Hornets are just 15-25. Right now they are playing as poor as they have all season at 2-9 over their last 11. What we are left with is a team well over .500 that is not really that good and a team that is 15 games under .500 that is over the .500 mark in their last 31 getting a bundle of points. I'll ride LA in this one