DAVE COKIN
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AT ILLINOIS STATE
PLAY: SOUTHERN ILLINOIS +4.5
It’s Senior Night for Illinois State this evening, and that means DeVaughn Akoon-Purcell will be the center of attention in Normal. Akron-Purcell has been a terrific player for this program and it figures to be an emotional evening for the senior star as well as the fans.
There is a potential fly in that ointment. Akron-Purcell claims he’s feeling fine now, but he’s had migraine issues for a couple weeks and actually had to leave the Northern Iowa game over thew weekend early due to the intense pain. The Redbirds certainly need their best guy on the court all the way in this important clash with Southern Illinois.
There’s a good deal in play here as far as the seeding for the upcoming MVC tournament. Illinois State will also be looking to even the score after suffering a tough three-point loss at Carbondale when these teams met back in January.
I’m looking at the Southern Illinois side as having a great chance to complete the series sweep. Barry Hinson has done a stellar job with this edition of the Salukis. The 21-8 ledger is a little misleading as SIU benefited from a very soft non-league schedule. But that 10-6 MVC record doesn’t look at all fluky and the Salukis have a really chance to get to the NIT if they can finish well. That would be a tremendous accomplishment for a team that was barely inside the Top 200 nationally in the pre-season rankings.
I’m going with the math on this one, at least on the numbers I tend to give the most weight to when assessing things. I made this number Illinois State -3.5, so there was a nice bit of value vs. the early number. The line has dropped a bit subsequently. But even at the present +4.5, I’m plenty interested. I think this plays out as a coin flip type of game that’s in doubt all the way, and I like catching more than one possession when that’s the case. Southern Illinois plus the points is the choice tonight.
Ken Thomson
Illinois St. -4.5
Illinois State has made me some good $$ this season...they should avenge a loss in Carbondale earlier this season 71-68 to Southern Illinois. The Redbirds have won ( 8 of last 10 ) games and will be re-focused after a road loss at Northern Iowa last Saturday. Devaughn Akoon-Purcell has been cleared to play and with Lee, McIntosh & Hawkins they have had the firepower to be a contender in the MVC Tournament in March. Anthony Beane & Sean O'Brien are the only two scorers for SIU and the Redbirds should be up to the task at home. I like Illinois State by 7-14 points in this one.
Va. Commonwealth -10.5
VCU is in a different place than George Mason right bow. Coach Wade has the Rams focused on winning the A-10 and going to the Big Dance. For George Mason they can watch old footage of their Final Four appearance during the Larranaga Era. Melvin Johnson, JeQuan Lewis and Korey Billbury are all dangerous and Mo Alie-Cox is a solid role player. George Mason is led by Marquise Moore and he should play off an ankle injury but will not be 100%. VCU by 14-24 in this one!
Houston -5.5
The Cougars are having a solid season under Kelvin Sampson. He should have Houston ready to sweep UCF in Orlando. Devonta Pollard is back and Knowles, Barnes & Dotson should all get double digits in this roadie that should be close for awhile before the Cougs pull away in the second half. Central Florida is a train wreck right now, losers of ( 8 of 9 ) games including an 82-58 loss at Houston just eleven days ago. I'll take the Cougars to sweep the Knights in the season series in the AAC.
Rob Vinciletti
Wolves vs. Raptors
Play: Wolves +9½
Minnesota has covered 7 of the last 9 vs winning teams, 8 of 11 as a road dog from 9.5 to 12 and 7 of 8 on the road off a dog win. Toronto is off a big road blowout win and rested road dogs that scored 120 or more at home have covered over 80% of the time vs an opponent that scored 120 or more on the road. This one looks like a classic win and no cover for the home team. Take the Timberwolves.
Frank Jordan
Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Dallas Mavericks
Play: Oklahoma City Thunder -4.5
This would be the playoff match up in the first round if the playoffs started today as the 40-16 Thunder sit in the three seed in the West and the 30-27 Mavericks sit in the sixth seed. Oklahoma City has dropped their last two games, but are 7-3 in their last 10 games and 15-9 on the road. Dallas is 4-6 in their last 10 games, but coming off a victory and 16-11 at home this season. These two teams first meeting was in Oklahoma City on November 22nd with the Thunder winning 117-114 in a wild shootout, the second match up was on January 13th also in Oklahoma City and also a Thunder victory 108-89. This is their third and final match up of the regular season and Durant and Dirk mostly go head to head, but Dallas doesn't have anyone that can stop Westbrook so look for another big victory for Oklahoma City as they end this mini two game slide they have had coming out of the All-Star break.
Jesse Schule
Northwestern vs. Michigan
Play: Michigan -7
The Wolverines are one of several teams "on the bubble" in the BIG10, and tonight's home game versus Northwestern is an absolute "must win". They can't afford to take anything for granted here, and we should see Michigan come out playing hard right from the opening tip off. Michigan has a home record of 12-3, and they won their last home game 61-56 over Purdue (then ranked #18). The Wildcats have only won twice in their last nine games, and those wins came against BIG10 bottom feeders Illinois and Minnesota, both victories coming at home. They've lost five straight on the road, and the average margin of defeat in those games was 14 points. They are only getting half as many points here in Michigan, where they have lost five straight since 2010. The Wolverines score an average of 78 points on 48.3 percent shooting at home, and they are hitting over 40 percent of their three-point attempts. It's a tough ask for the Wildcats to keep up offensively, as they come in averaging just 67 points per game over their last five. This is a statement game for Michigan, and I expect them to trounce the Wildcats, winning by double digits.
Jimmy Adams
VCU vs. George Mason
Play: VCU -10½
We have a ticket to cash in the Atlantic 10 on Wednesday night. The disparity between these two schools is obviously noticeable on paper, with Virginia Commonwealth coming in with a record of 20-7 SU and George Mason sitting at just 9-18. VCU has some extra motivation to add to this one because they have St. Joe's and Dayton sitting right on their heels, ready to try and steal the conference championship. VCU is a balanced team. They play solid, fundamental basketball on both ends of the floor. The Rams are coming off of a win over pesky Richmond.
George Mason isn't particularly good on either side of the court, but where they really struggle is on offense. The Patriots can't shoot the 3 ball or get to the basket. They don't get to the foul line often and thus don't score much at all. In fact, they are currently ranked 313th in points per game. This is where a blowout seems all too likely. We know that the Rams are going to score. We also know that they'll be focused as this is a game that they have to win to remain atop the conference. VCU hasn't had any trouble playing on the road either. They're 5-1 ATS in their last 6 road games. Take Virginia Commonwealth.
Will Rogers
Canadiens vs. Capitals
Play: Canadiens +1½
The Montreal Canadiens were a little unfortunate to lose in a shootout at home versus Nashville on Monday, but they did pick up a valuable point in their quest to get back into the playoff race. They did get great goaltending from Mike Condon, who has surrendered just three goals on 67 shots in his last two starts. The Habs have played three straight one-goal games, and I expect another close, low scoring affair here in Washington.
Here are my keys to the game:
1. Previous History - The Washington Capitals have won five of their last seven versus Montreal, but five of those games were decided by just one goal. Four of those games went to overtime, and eight of the last 10 meetings in this series saw five goals or fewer.
2. Special Teams - These are two of the best teams in the league at killing penalties. The Caps rank 4th, with a kill rate of 85 percent, while the Habs are not far behind with an 84 percent kill rate, ranking 6th.
3. X=Factor - The road team is 8-3 in the last 11 meetings.
Marc Lawrence
Denver vs. L.A. Clippers
Pick: Denver
Edges - Nuggets: 5-1 ATS with out rest versus foe with one day of rest. Clippers: 1-5 ATS with one day of rest versus foe with no rest. With the Clippers off a 40-point revenge win over Phoenix, we recommend a 1* play on Denver.
Ben Burns
Siena vs. Fairfield
Pick: Fairfield
Back on 1/7, playing at home, the Siena Saints hammered the Fairfield Stags by 15 points. On Wednesday, Fairfield will host Siena, getting a chance for some payback. Off five straight wins, the Stags are playing better now than they were for the previous meeting. This is their final home game of the regular season, so they'll be motivated for a big performance. On the other hand, the Saints are off an emotional loss vs. rival Iona and they have their final home game of the season on deck. The Stags may be slight underdogs for this one but with the schedule in their favor, I like their chances of rewarding the faithful with a victory. Consider Fairfield.
Jim Feist
Warriors at Heat
Pick : Under
Miami is No. 2 in the NBA in points allowed, No. 1 in the East, and will not get into a running battle with Golden State. They will try and slow it down and the Under is 39-15-1 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game. Miami is also 25-12 under the total following a straight up win. Golden State can play great defense, too, No. 2 in field goal shooting defense and the under is 5-2 in the Warriors last 7 road games.
Dave Essler
Xavier -1
The Musketeers are favored for a reason. Often times the harder bets to make are the winners. On New Years' eve Villanova simply buried Xavier at home, 95-64. In that game the Musketeers shot 6-19 from behind the arc, had 19 turnovers, and let 'Nova shoot 52% from deep. It really was as bad as it looks, if not worse. With a win Xavier can pretty much solidify the #2 seed in the Conference Tournament, and some projections have them a #1 seed already. So one could argue that "how do you not take Villanova as a slight dog" - to which I would counter how "do you not take a #1 seed at home, with revenge, to essentially win the game". The two things Xavier does well are get to the line (which we like at home) and defend the perimeter on defense, which matches up well here - and they've got a length advantage.
Matt Fargo
Arizona vs. Colorado
Play: Colorado +5½
After a pair of losses against California and Oregon, Arizona has reeled off six straight victories which is causing this line to be overadjusted. The Wildcats are tied with Oregon for first place in the Pac 12 so this is certainly a big game but it comes in a very tough environment and they have not exactly been road warriors, going 4-3 on the Pac 12 highway. They are coming off a three-game homestand so this is the first road game in nearly three weeks. Colorado meanwhile is coming off a pair of losses at UCLA and at USC last week as the venue continues to play a role in the success of the Buffaloes. The home team has gone a perfect 8-0 in their last eight games and that includes four wins in Boulder as the home floor continues to be solid. They are 14- at home with the lone loss coming against Utah by a bucket, which is another team that is used to the high altitude. Colorado still has memories of when the Wildcats came here last year and rolled to a 28-point victory which only adds to the motivation. The Buffaloes have a solid RPI of 35, just nine slots lower than Arizona which make this line off based on the raw rankings.
Scott Spreitzer
Mississippi State vs. Texas A&M
Play: Mississippi State +12
The Bulldogs have played better of late, averaging 71 ppg over their last five contests, while allowing just 67 ppg. Ben Howland's squad is 3-1 SU/ATS in their last four outings, including wins over Vanderbilt and Alabama. Miss State gave A&M all the Aggies could handle in their January meeting, before falling 61-60, covering the 7-point spread. State was able to hold A&M to 19 of 62 shooting and I expect the Bulldogs to clamp down on the Aggies again tonight. Malik Newman (back) may not play tonight, but the Bulldogs had no problem without him in the road win at Bama. Texas A&M is off the big OT win over Kentucky last time out and will lay double digits to a team that is on a 5-1 ATS run as a conference dog of 10 or more since last season. Once again, we feel the Bulldogs are getting value as a big dog. Meanwhile, A&M is just 2-6 ATS in their last eight conference games.
Jimmy Boyd
Georgia vs. Auburn
Play: Georgia -4½
We are getting a great price on the Bulldogs tonight, as Georgia comes in slightly undervalued after losing 2 straight, including an ugly 67-80 loss at Vanderbilt on Saturday. The Bulldogs are 7-7 inside the SEC and have not lost 3 straight conference games so far this season. I don't see that trend coming to an end against the Tigers.
Auburn just lost at home 59-69 to Ole Miss as a 6.5-point dog on Saturday. The Tigers are just 1-8 in their last 9 conference games and it doesn't figure to get any better down the stretch. Leading scorer, Kareem Canty (18.3 ppg) was lost for the season on 2/12 and now Auburn is expected to be without second leading scorer Tyler Harris (14.0), who is doubtful with a concussion. Keep in mind that Canty also leads the team with 5.3 apg and Harris is second with 7.5 rpg.
Given the losses and the fact that Auburn has lost 4 straight at home, I look for the Bulldogs to secure a rare road win tonight. Georgia is 10-2 ATS in their last 12 off a conference road loss and a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last 6 road games after scoring 30 points or less in the first half of 2 straight games. Lay the points!
Larry Ness
Northwestern vs. Michigan
Pick: Michigan
Northwestern is one of only FIVE of the original Division I teams that has never participated in the NCAA tournament. The others are Army, St. Francis (NY), The Citadel and William & Mary. The Wildcats opened the current season 13-1 (including a 1-0 start in the Big Ten) but limps into this road game at Michigan just 5-9 in Big Ten play (17-10) overall. Barring Northwestern winning the Big Ten tourney (fat chance), the Wildcats’ NCCA tourney drought will continue in 2016. Meanwhile, Michigan (19-9, 9-6) is looking to move to the right side of the bubble after back-to-back losses. The Wolverines missed the Big Dance last year and head coach John Beilein doesn’t want to set a trend.
Senior Caris LeVert is listed as day-to-day as the star shooting guard (16.5-5.3-4.9) sat out Michigan’s 86-82 loss Sunday at Maryland and has now missed 13 of the last 14 continues (played just 11 scoreless minutes in his only action). PG Walton (12.2-5.7-4.0), 6-8 swingman Robinson (11.5-3.4) and guard Irvin (11.4-4.3-3.3) chip in double digits, while the 6-9 Donnal (8.1-3.8) made 10-of-13 from the floor en route to a game-high 25 points and five blocked shots to lead five players in double figures in the narrow loss to Maryland. "There's another gear from Mark that you saw out there," Beilein told reporters. "He's got a fifth gear that can make him a really good college basketball player."
Northwestern head coach Chris Collins has an excellent guard duo in Demps (14.9-3.3-3.5) and McIntosh (14.3-3.6-6.6) plus two solid big men in the 7-0 Olah (10.6-5.1) and 6-8 freshman Falzon (8.6-3.6). However, Northwestern enters this contest having lost FIVE consecutive road games plus Michigan has dominated the series with Northwestern in the last five years, winning SIX of the last seven games and looks to beat the Wildcats for the SIXTH consecutive time in Ann Arbor (Wildcats last beat Michigan at the Crisler Center back on Jan 10, 2010). Lay the points.