Alex Smart
Hornets at Cavaliers
Play: Cavaliers -8
The Cleveland Cavaliers after the all star break came out and played one of the best games of their season on Sunday with a dominating 115-92 win vs the Oklahoma City Thunder and than followed it up with one of their ugliest performances of the season vs the Detroit Pistons losing 96-88 at home. Now I am expecting the Cavaliers to be fully focused as they try to get back their mojo and also hand out some retribution for a loss they suffered to the Hornets back on Feb 3 as they lost 106-97 on the road.
Wunderdog
Denver @ Los Angeles
Pick: Denver +11
The Clippers have won two of three since the All-Star break, including a 124-84 blowout win over hapless Phoenix on Monday. J.J. Redick scored 22 points and newly acquired Jeff Green added 18 points as the Clippers shot 55.0 percent and breezed against the Suns, who shot a paltry 35.2 percent. Denver lost its third straight 114-110 against Sacramento last night even though it had eight players score in double figures led by Will Barton with 18 points. The Nuggets are 5-0 ATS their last five games against teams with .600 or better records and 10-2 ATS after a loss. The Clippers are 1-4 ATS their last five contests against a team with .400 or less winning percentage. This is too many points to lay in this matchup, so take 'em and play the Nuggets.
RAY MONOHAN
Buffalo vs. Anaheim
Play: Over 5
The Sabres and Ducks go at it in Anaheim on Wednesday night The over opens with respectable juice, making it valuable here. Anaheim is one of the best offensive minded teams in the NHL lately. Anaheim has won 5 straight games, with the total flying over 5 in 4 of them with the other one pushing. The Ducks have scored 24 goals and have gone 8 of 18 on the PP during this streak. Buffalo comes in off a hard fought 4-3 loss to Pittsburgh as they have become a bit of an offensive threat over their last 10. The Sabres have hit the over 5 times, while pushing 2 times in their last 10. Over is 6-2-1 in Sabres last 9 games playing on 2 days rest.Over is 4-0 in Ducks last 4 games playing on 2 days rest. With both teams playing on 2 days of rest, the over has been a gold mine. Expect that to be the case here on Wednesday.
Sleepyj
Golden State -8.5
Miami has some severe issue right now with this club..Not only is Chris Bosh sidelined with his calf issue, PG Udrih is now out for the season....Tyler Johnson still remains out as well...So it's a wounded bunch of Heat players right now...Golden St is in the middle of a road trip right now...They have played 4 games this far and they are 3-1 on this trip...They still have 3 games left to go and this Miami game is followed by another game tomorrow Vs. Orlando...So a tough stretch for the Warriors no doubt..Still this team is the best in the league and they have made a point when they take to the road to blow teams out...If not a blowout, they still play very tough no matter what....These teams met in GS and the Warriors got a 8 point win...I remember that game well as we took the Heat in a great spot...This spot for the Heat is much different...I don;t trust the old age of the Heat and the injuries are a concern....Chris Bosh and Tyler Johnson both played in that game..As i said both guys are OUT for this one and that game they produced 28 points 9 ast and 15 rebounds combined...Now that is all gone and that has to be made up for...I could understand if this game was against a lesser team to pick up the slack, but it's the Warriors...The Heat will need season games out of Wade, Deng and Dragic...I just don't see it...Warriors may roll big in this one..Not the greatest line, bit backing the Warriors is never a bargain.
Bruce Marshall
Xavier Pk
Payback time for the "X" after a blowout loss on New Year's Eve at Nova, when the Musketeers appeared shaken early after the frightening on-court collision and hard fall of electric frosh swingman Edmond Sumner. That scary injury in the first few minutes seemed to distract Chris Mack's troops, who would fall behind by 20 points in the first half and never recover in an eventual 95-64 loss. Yes, the Wildcats also scored a trio of wins and covers by DD margins last year against Xavier, suggesting that these matchups simply work in Nova's favor. But Big East sources believe the now-healthy Sumner (15 ppg last five; 22 in the weekend romp over Georgetown) changes those dynamics, and the Muskies have tapped another rich vein of form with three consecutive wins and covers by DD margins. It's about time for another top-ranked team this season to go down!
Nelly
St. Joseph's - over Massachusetts
St. Joseph's hasn't lost consecutive games all season and Wednesday night the Hawks face a second straight road game after allowing 99 points in a loss at Davidson on Saturday. Massachusetts has won four of the last six games following a 1-7 start in A-10 play and the recent run includes wins over Rhode Island and VCU. Two of the four wins also came in overtime however and the Minutemen have lost four home games on the season including falling against teams at the bottom of the conference including Saint Louis and Fordham. VCU has regained the lead in the A-10 standings with St. Joseph's and Dayton a game back but VCU has a daunting remaining schedule. St. Joseph's has to feel they still have a great opportunity to win the conference and the statistics paint the Hawks as the most complete team in the league with top three efficiency rankings on both sides of the ball. In the first meeting St. Joseph's won by eight at home with a high scoring close to the game through foul shots. St. Joseph's missed 11 free throws in the game and shot just 29 percent from 3-point range but still comfortably pulled away. The teams that have beat St. Joseph's have mostly been strong offensive teams with up tempo paces as four of the five losses for the Hawks came while allowing 83 or more points. Massachusetts doesn't mind pushing the pace but the Minutemen have been held below 75 points in seven of the last eight games. Half of the wins for St. Joseph's this season have come away from home and the past six road or neutral site wins have come by nine or more points.
RICKY TRAN
Wolves vs. Raptors
Play: Wolves +9½
The Timberwolves are 12-5 ATS in their last 17 road games vs. a team with a winning home record and they're catching a bunch of points at Toronto tonight. The Raptors are off a dominant 122-95 win over the Knicks Monday and are in a let down spot after a big win. Minny's rookie center Karl-Anthony Towns put up 35 points and 11 rebounds in the 117-112 win over Toronto on Feb. 10, and don't be surprised if the Wolves threaten to win outright again.
ALEX SMART
Golden State vs. Miami
Play: Golden State -8½
Dwayne Wade the Miami Heats star player said this about tonight opponent Golden State: "You have to play near-perfect," Wade said, "and they have to play very bad. I could not agree more with his assessments. With key cog Chris Bosh out because of blood clot issues, the Heat just don't have the guns to run with Golden State, and despite of Hassan Whiteside, shot blocking prowess he cannot be everywhere at once. With the Warriors multiple offensive weapons, ie Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson and the rest of the Warriors' sharpshooting crew the Heat are just over matched as are most teams the Dubs play against in this league. Warriors are 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.Heat are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.Warriors are 6-0-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings in Miami.
BRANDON LEE
Notre Dame vs. Wake Forest
Play: Notre Dame -7
Notre Dame defeated Wake Forest 85-62 at home back on 1/31 and I look for the Irish to have no problem going on the road and beating the Demon Deacons by at least 8 points. Wake Forest was able to end an 11-game skid with a 74-48 blowout win at home against Boston College, but that's nothing to get excited about, as the Eagles are AWFUL! Coming off a heartbreaking 62-63 loss at Georgia Tech, Notre Dame isn't going to be looking past the Demon Deacons, as they fight for ACC Tournament position and I just don't see Wake Forest putting up much of a fight without the suspended Devin Thomas, who leads the team in scoring (15.8 ppg), rebounding (10.2 rpg) and blocks (1.6 bpg). Notre Dame is 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 off a SU loss, while Wake Forest is 3-10 ATS in their last 13 home games and 1-7 ATS in their last 8 off a SU win.
BILL BILES
Wichita State vs. Loyola-Chicago
Play: Wichita State -12.5
Wichita State has been dominating teams lately and they are a much better team than Loyola-Chicago. They beat them by 26 a couple weeks ago. Wichita State is playing to win their conference and to get a bid into the tourny. This should be a blowout.
SCOTT RICKENBACH
Spurs vs. Kings
Play: Kings +7
The Spurs are one of the top teams in the NBA but even though they've been shooting the ball well they have failed to cover 4 straight ATS. As you would expect, defense has been the culprit. Now, in the first night of a back to back, I suspect the Spurs will again struggle to put away their opponent. That makes the generous points well worth the taking here as San Antonio's focus is on winning and moving on to a tough game with Utah tomorrow night rather than trying to obliterate the Kings tonight. Annihilating Sacramento is no easy task either. The Kings have won three straight games overall and also have won 4 of their past 6 games on their home floor. Even though Sacramento is in a back to back here they have gone 27-19 in the 2nd night of a back to back situation the past three seasons. The Kings offense has been so hot lately that they feel they can hang with anyone right now and that makes for a dangerous dog. The Spurs continued defensive lapses make them a weak favorite in this price range. Grab the value with the points here.
JOSEPH D'AMICO
Arizona vs. Colorado
Play: Arizona -5
Don't fool yourself, Colorado is not in the same class as Arizona. The Wildcats are on track to win their 3rd straight PAC 12 regular-season title. U of A rattled off 6 wins in a row SU (4-2 ATS), with their offense averaging 82.0 PPG and their "D" holding opponents to just 68.0 PPG on the season, while on both ends, controlling the boards (ranking 20th on offense and 4th on defense). Colorado is no pushover, but they are getting a favorable line here due to their 14-1 home record. The Buffalo's have dropped 2 and a row and 4 of their L6 outings. Guards, King and Fortune will have their hands full with Trier and York. But this game will be won in the paint as Colorado does not have the personnel to contend with Arizona's frontcourt of Anderson, Tarczewski, and Ristic (33.7 PPG and 23.6 RPG combined). Arizona has taken the L6 in the series SU and owns a 22-9 ATS mark their L31 vs. PAC 12 foes while Colorado is 1-5 ATS their L6 vs. Conference opponents.
Drew Martin
Villanova vs. Xavier
Play:Villanova -1.5
The most important Big East game of the season tips tonight in Cincinnati as Villanova will be defending its No. 1 ranking on the road vs No. 5 ranked Xavier with first place on the line for both teams. Xavier has played well of late winning eight of nine games and the Musketeers will be looking to avenge their first loss of the season to the Wildcats, a 31-point blowout. Villanova has been Xavier’s kryptonite. In the past three years spanning six games, the Musketeers are 0-6, losing by an average of 17 ppg a game. The Wildcats destroyed the Musketeers in December as Ryan Arcidiacono went for 27 points including 50% from behind the line.
The Wildcats are No. 1 thanks to 16 wins in the past 17 games after an 8-2 start to the year. Josh Hart has been a huge part of that success, averaging a team-high 15.0 points to go along with 7.6 rebounds per game. Daniel Ochefu has been rock-solid since coming back from injury, averaging 14.5 points, 8.0 rebounds, 1.5 steals and 1.3 blocks in the past four games.
Xavier has played well at home, not losing since a 9-point defeat in the middle of January to Georgetown. However, Nova is the superior squad hence why it hasn't had a game decided by single digits this month. Also note they have not lost a road game in 2016 and that includes three top 50 teams and six top 100 teams. Even with a bounceback effort off the dismal showing in the first meeting it won't be enough as Villanova gets the job done.
SPORTS WAGERS
San Jose -½ +118 over COLORADO
Regulation only. The Avalanche may be in over their heads here. Colorado is coming off games against Buffalo, Montreal, Edmonton and Vancouver. A team could get into a lot of bad habits playing that quartet in succession because none of them play as structured or detailed as the Sharks. Colorado now takes a huge step up in class and they’re not very good to begin with. The Avs continue to be an analytics mess. Their Corsi Against of 62.1 shot attempts allowed per game is dead last in the league. The next closest to the Avs is Calgary’s 58.3 while San Jose’s Corsi Against is just 51.3. The Avs have scored two goals or less in 11 of their past 18 games so it’s actually a minor miracle that they have 10 wins over that span. To defeat superior teams a lot has to go right for Colorado but that’s a lot to ask against a team like the Sharks. Colorado has lost five of the last six games against the Sharks. The last game ended up with San Jose winning 6-1. When the Avs did beat San Jose on the 28th of December, Colorado was outshot 38-26 and out-chanced 24-12. There’s a reason why San Jose dominates this squad and it’s because the Sharks play a strict and structured system that is geared towards relentless forechecking and puck possession while the Avs are all over the map with very little structure.
On Peter DoBoer’s watch, the Sharks are thriving. They went into St. Louis on Monday and easily disposed of the then red-hot Blues, 6-3. That was the second time in February that they beat the Blues and they also have recent victories over Chicago and Tampa Bay among others. San Jose has won nine of their last 12 road games with only defeats coming against Carolina, Los Angeles and Anaheim. What those three have in common is that they are all a top-6 possession team while Colorado is at the very bottom of puck possession. This is a possession and structure mismatch in the Sharks favor and if the Avs beat us here, so be it. The key here is win expectation and based on history, puck possession numbers, current form and everything else, the Sharks win expectation in this one single game is extremely high. If both teams show up and the goaltending battle is even, we will be cashing this ticket. If teh goaltending battle favors the Avs, we still might cash this ticket.
Pittsburgh +104 over BOSTON
OT included. The Penguins and Bruins have met twice this year with Boston winning 6-2 and 3-0. That’s a combined 9-2 that the Bruins have outscored the Pens. The B’s have also beaten the Penguins four straight overall and six of the last seven meetings. Pittsburgh’s only victory during that stretch came in OT. In other words, Boston has picked up 13 out of a possible 14 points against the Penguins over the last seven games. That’s a little insane and at some point the Pens have to take a stand. This is very likely that day because Boston’s extreme puck luck cannot continue.
In Boston’s 3-0 victory over Pittsburgh on December 16th, Pittsburgh won the Corsi For battle 62-60. Pitt won the scoring chances battle, 24-23 with Boston scoring three times on 10 high quality scoring chances, while the Pens scored none on 12 high quality chances. Two days later, Boston beat Pitt, 6-2. In that game, Pitt won the scoring chances battle, 26-14. Boston had six high quality scoring chances and scored six times while Pitt scored twice on 10 high quality chances. Against Columbus on Monday, Boston scored four times but three of those goals were deflected in while the other was a screen shot. Meanwhile, the Jackets scored six times and hit five goal posts. The Jackets won 6-4 but that score probably should have been closer to 9-1. That’s how lucky Boston was. It goes deeper than that too. Since November, Boston’s shooting percentage is 11.25 while the opposition’s shooting percentage against the B’s is 8.71. The Bruins have been on the extreme side of good fortune for far too long but there is still more. When you’re not controlling possession, you give up more shots, and the B’s have given up the fifth-most shot attempts per 60 minutes and the third-most scoring chances, both at 5-on-5, per War on Ice. In February, no team has given up more scoring chances than Boston. Zdeno Chara is the only Bruins defenseman with 30 or more games played who ends more of his shifts in the offensive zone than he starts, per Behind the Net. All of this explains why the Bruins are 12-18 at home and it also explains why they are 20-10 on the road. Boston is 20-10 on the road because of extreme good fortune.
Pittsburgh’s puck possession numbers are vastly superior to the Bruins. The Penguins take fewer penalties than Boston, they surrender fewer goals and chances and they are superior on the penalty kill. What’s interesting is that Pittsburgh has not scored a PP goal in seven straight games. Again, that is another area where luck plays a huge factor. Pittsburgh has too much firepower to be kept off the scoreboard much longer on the power-play. This game may appear to be a fair fight but it’s not. The Bruins defensemen outside of Chara are minor-league caliber. NHL games are often decided by goaltenders but we’ll take our chances with a Pittsburgh team here that is superior to the Bruins and has to be sick of losing to them so often because of bad fortune.
Buffalo +230 over ANAHEIM
OT included. It is nearly impossible to make a case for the Sabres here and we wouldn’t even try. The Ducks are the greatest show on ice right now and it’s all legit. The Ducks are without question the most balanced offense in the league, they’re sound defensively and they have two legit NHL goaltenders. If there is a more complete team in the NHL or a bigger threat to win the grand prize, we have yet to see them. The Sabres are going to need one or two things to occur for them to come in here and leave victorious. One, the Ducks have to be somewhat flat or uninspired and/or Sabres goaltender Robin Lehner has to be brilliant. What we’re pretty sure of is that we’re going to get a strong effort out of the Sabres because that’s who they are. They have plenty of heart, they play to win and they have a strong collection of underappreciated NHL caliber players. Robin Lehner is also solid with a .928 save percentage.
The Ducks have been absolutely near unbeatable since Christmas to the tune of 20 wins and four losses to virtually lock up a playoff spot but they’re not going to run the table. There are going to be some losses along the way and this is a situational spot where we might catch the Ducks napping. Anaheim just returned from a grueling, seven-game trip. Upon returning, they whacked the Flames, 5-2. That aforementioned trip took them through the East Coast for three games, the Midwest for one game against the Blackhawks and finally to the Canadian West Coast for three more to wrap it up. Anaheim has scored five goals or more in four straight, which is a pace that is impossible to maintain. This is the Ducks second game back after said trip and it’s against an East team that they rarely see. On deck are the gutless Oilers, another easy game that they may not get up for either, although the Oilers are a division rival. On Sunday, however, the Kings come into town and that’s the Ducks biggest threat and biggest rival. Over 82 games it is impossible to maintain high intensity every game. There has to be valleys from time to time and this is the perfect setup for the Ducks to exhale, take a breath and show up in body only. They have to be somewhat exhausted and need to reenergize before the Kings come in on Sunday. If the Ducks are primed to be flat, this would be the day. The Sabres may just pull of a stunner here and we would not be a bit surprised if they did.
DAVE PRICE
Mississippi State +12
The Texas A&M Aggies are in a big-time letdown spot tonight. They are coming off a 79-77 home win over the Kentucky Wildcats on Saturday, and now they'll have a hard time getting up for Mississippi State. But the Bulldogs are no pushovers. They are 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS in their last 4 games with a 32-point win over Arkansas, an upset home win over Vanderbilt, and an upset road win at Alabama. Getting 12 points here with the Bulldogs is simply too much. They'll be out for revenge from a 60-61 home loss to the Aggies in which they blew a big, late lead as 7-point dogs in their first meeting on January 6. Mississippi State only lost by 4 as 10-point dogs at Texas A&M last year as well.