Hollywood Sports
Oklahoma State at Texas Feb 24 2010 9:00PM
Prediction: Texas
While Texas (21-6) is loaded with a talented roster with ten players averaging double-digit minutes, a concern has been that coach Rick Barnes has failed to establish the most potent on-court player combinations. However, those days may be gone after point-guard Dogus Balbay suffered a season-ending torn ACL. Senior Justin Mason (who has plenty of starting experience) should take Balbay's place in the lineup and we his leadership should settle this talented Longhorns' club. Like Balbay, Mason is a "pass-first" point-guard but with a better 3-point shot. Said forward Gary Johnson: "Were an inside-out team . Thats what got us to the point in the season when we were undefeated." With the player rotations settling into more consistent sets, look for Texas to take off again. They are 13-2 at home with a dominant +22.3 net point differential. The Longhorns' home split stats are very impressive. They average 85.7 PPG on 48.2% shooting. On defense, they hold their opponents to just 63.4 PPG and an anemic 35.8% shooting from the field. This spells trouble for an Oklahoma State team that shoots under 40% on the road. The Cowboys (19-7) are just 3-5 with a -6.3 net point differential in true road games. Oklahoma State struggles on the road against quality competition as they have failed to cover the spread in five of their last seven road games against teams with a home winning percentage above 60%. Furthermore, the Cowboys are just 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games in Austin. The home team is 10-4-1 ATS in the last 15 meetings in this series while the favorite is 3-0-1 ATS in the last 4 encounters between these two clubs. Texas handed Oklahoma State a 72-60 loss earlier this season. Expect more of the same from the Longhorns Wednesday night. Lay the points with Texas.
Matt Fargo
3* New Mexico St. Aggies
The way I see it, the markets have not caught up with New Mexico St. for some reason and we are still getting value on the Aggies so we will continue to ride. The Aggies started the season at 3-6 and that slow start can be attributed to a number of reasons but mostly it was due to not being at close to full strength. That is not that case anymore as New Mexico St. has everyone back and the biggest returnee was forward Wendell McKines. He has been back for 16 games and it is no surprise that the Aggies are 13-3 in those games with one loss coming against WAC heavyweight Nevada, another coming against a strong San Jose St. team and the last at Fresno St. He is averaging 11.2 ppg and 9.6 rpg and his presence makes this team nearly complete. The backcourt is one of the best in the conference and is even better with McKines back in the lineup. Guard Jahmar Young and guard Jonathan Gibson are doing something really special in Las Cruses. Young enters this game third in the WAC in scoring at 20.9 ppg while is Gibson is sixth at 18.2 ppg. They are the highest scoring teammates in the conference and as of last week’s NCAA’s stats, they were the only teammates in the national top 50 in scoring. To make things even better, the Aggies got forward Troy Gillenwater back five games ago as he was reinstated from being academically ineligible. All he’s done in his first five games back is average 15.6 ppg and 7.4 rpg and it the best sixth man in the conference. The high-scoring backcourt combined with the new solid frontcourt of McKines, Gillenwater and center Hamidu Rahman, make New Mexico St. a tough matchup for anybody in the WAC as the Aggies now possess five double-digit scorers. The fifth starter is point guard Hernst Laroche who had a tidy 2.00 assist/turnover ratio. Idaho was a pleasant surprise to open the season with an 8-4 record but it then suffered six straight conference losses to take some of the wind out of its sails. To the Vandals credit, they did not quit and have gone a solid 5-3 over their last eight games including a 3-1 record on the road. However the one loss came against the best team they played and that was Utah St. by 18 points and while these Aggies may not quite be in line with those Aggies, they are close. The RPI shows New Mexico St. with a 66 rank while Idaho is at 174 and those are pretty significant differences. With a variance that big, we usually see it in the line as well but that is not the case in this one as we once against catch New Mexico St. with an outstanding line. 3* New Mexico St. Aggies
Tom Stryker
S MISSISSIPPI (+) over Texas El Paso
Respect is given to a Texas El Paso team that has ripped off five consecutive SU and ATS wins in its last five on foreign soil. However, off their stunning upset win at Tulsa, this could be an extremely difficult game for the Miners. Southern Miss is a force at home and they could very well pull off this stunning victory.
Back on January 16th, the Golden Eagles (+12') traveled to El Paso and gave UTEP a game. The Miners prevailed with a 56-49 victory. That may not be the case tonight. In its last 62 games inside Reed Green Coliseum, USM is a nifty 47-15 SU and 23-13-1 ATS including 11-4 ATS in this role running with four or more days of rest. Meanwhile, UETP is 7-13 ATS as a guest coming off a straight up underdog win and just 3-16 SU and 6-12-1 ATS priced as a road dog facing an opponent that enters off back-to-back straight up losses.
Those team trends are nice but this next system really makes this investment pop. Since 1990, home dogs priced at +2 or more running in their fourth straight home game are a money-making 26-12 ATS provided their opponent checks in with momentum off back-to-back SU and ATS wins. The Golden Eagles fit this rare system perfectly.
Amazingly, after knocking off Tulsa, Texas El Paso has dropped its next 10 games. Matched up against the CUSA's best defense (allow an avg of 59.5 ppg), the Miners are going to be in for a long night. Take Southern Miss.
Tony George
Texas A&M vs. Baylor
Play: Texas AM +7
Why is this line going up?? Texas AM already won by 7 as a 2 point favorite on the 10th of this month. AM plays great perimeter defense and Baylor relys on the 3 pointer. That is a mis-match! There are no injuries here for AM, so why the line? I think I know the Big 12 pretty well, and this is a 3 point game one way or the other, and an outright dog win by Texas AM is NOT our of the question here.
If I did not have my Game of the Year tonight, THIS WOULD BE A PREMIUM SELECTION - Worth a Unit....FYI
Texas AM is one of the best road teams in the Big 12, going 41-19 ATS their last 60 road games. Yes they have struggled in Waco, but I like their chances and bear in mind they are the only team in the past 3 weeks to give Kansas all they wanted and then some, and actually blew the game, they have the horses in this one to hang tough.
LEE KOSTROSKI
Auburn @ Mississippi
PICK: Auburn +9.5
Ole Miss is not playing good basketball right now. They’ve dropped five of their last six games (three of four home games) after starting the season 16-4. They are coming off of two back-to-back close losses at home to Vanderbilt (4 points) and Florida (3 points) so this match-up with a mediocre SEC team will be pretty meaningless for the Rebels. There won’t be a huge effort from Ole Miss tonight and Auburn is in a great situation to get the cover as the large underdog.
Auburn has lost six of their last 10 games, but they are playing everyone close. They’ve lost to Kentucky, Ole Miss, Vandy, Mississippi State, Arkansas and Florida by just 7.3 PPG (two games went to overtime). They are a very tough team to defend. They have three capable offensive threats in Waller, Hargrove and Reed. Those three average 43.7 PPG and they also get a solid contribution from off-guard Frankie Sullivan. In their latest game, those four scored 70 of their 92 points.
This is a revenge situation for the Tigers. They lost to Ole Miss by 10 points back on January 28th. Auburn was embarrassed, getting out-played in almost every aspect of the game. They are playing a lot better right now, however, as they just whipped Arkansas at home (after losing to the Razorbacks earlier in the season). They got revenge against Arkansas and we expect them to get revenge tonight.
Auburn is a very dangerous team at this point of the season. They are very good as an underdog and they love playing the spoiler. Auburn is 18-7-2 ATS in their last 27 games as an underdog and 23-9-2 ATS in their last 34 games as a road underdog. They are also 20-6-2 ATS in their last 28 vs. the SEC and the underdog is 6-2 ATS in the last 8 meetings in this series. Go with Auburn plus the points.
JR O'Donnell
Purdue vs. Minnesota
Play: Minnesota +2.5
The Williams center will be rocking tonight as the public will line up on the Boilermakers tonight as they have They have played well @ Assembly Hall, @ the Breslin Center, and Value City Arena & managed a string of quality wins, This is a Huge GUT PLAY HERE for the Jr o camp. Coach Tubby Smith pressures the hell out of teams on defense & our camp has that as a huge factor. We have a few intangibles that also factor in this play, Revenge " which is somewhat over rated and will kill a novice player , Home court advantage & the Spartans on deck!
Johnny Banks
Memphis vs. Washington
Play: Over 199
The Grizzlies starting 5 players logged over 160 minutes last night and 11 of their last 16 games have gone over the posted total when this has happened in their previous game. 20 of the Grizzlies last 28 road games have gone above the posted total and 5 of the last 6 games between the Memphis Grizzlies vs Washington Wizards have gone above the posted total. Grizzlies 98 Wizards 105
EZWINNERS
Minnesota Golden Gophers +3
The Golden Gophers are playing some very good ball right now and they seem to have some bounce back in their step. The Boilermakers have been on fire, but I think they might look past this Minnesota team with a big game against Michigan State on deck. The Minnesota crowd will be in full force and there has been no hotter shooter in the country right now than Golden Gopher guard Blake Hoffarber who is shooting 50% from three point land over the last month. Purdue is only 1-4 against the spread in their last five games as a road favorite and the home team is 5-1-1 against the spread in the last seven meetings between these two teams. Take the points.
SPORTS WAGERS
Russia +1.20 over Canada
Remarkably, one of these teams is going home tonight when most thought they would be playing for gold. One of these nations is in for a huge disappointment and that’s just the way it is. It says here the host nation is in trouble. Yeah, they outplayed the Americans and yeah, they walloped the Germans last night but so what. There are so many signs that this team is on the way out and we’ll start with the benching of some players. How do you choose the best players in the country and then bench some of them? Chris Pronger played about 2½ minutes in the third against USA. Brendan Morrow doesn’t play much at all. Dan Boyle and Patrice Bergeron are also seeing limited ice time. And how about last night? The score was 4-0 when Rick Nash went through the defense and got tripped up. The Canadians were awarded a penalty shot and coach Mike Babcock asked Sidney Crosby to take it. What? Are you kidding me?????!!!!! Here’s a guy, Rick Nash, that has yet to score in the Olympics and they were up 4-0 on the Germans. They had zero chance of losing the game and had a great chance to get Nash, one of the best players in the world, going. Nash must’ve felt almost humiliated and these small things all add up indeed. Incidentally, Crosby missed. Furthermore, the Canadians have serious issues in net. Brodeur is finished and Luongo looks even shakier. He allowed two goals to the Germans last night after the Germans had scored two goals the whole tournament leading up to that game. If the USA scored five and the Germans scored two on Canada, the potent Russians might score eight. Russia has not even played up to its potential yet but they were looking pretty good against the Czechs on Sunday and they’ll be very ready tonight. Pierre Maguire, the color analyst for the NHL games on CTV, said last night, “Gord, the Canadians are doing this so much better, they’re getting to the net, they’re moving the puck, etc, etc”. Ah, Pierre, they were playing Germany, you moron. The Canadian women could beat Germany. Damn, is he annoying as hell, or what? Anyway, the bottom line is that the Russians are superior in every way and Canada has not faced the world’s best yet and have looked ordinary at best against teams that Canada’s juniors could beat. They have not played Russia or Sweden and they’re about to get exposed a lot worse than they did against USA. Let’s call it 7-2 final. Play: Russia +1.20 (Risking 2 units).
Tom Freese
Arkansas at LSU
Louisiana State lost to Arkansas 87-52 on February 10. It was the most lopsided score in the history of this rivalry. The Tigers are still winless in Conference Play. LSU has lost 10 of their last 12 SEC games by 5 or more points. The Tigers are 5-14 ATS their last 19 games and they are 1-8 ATS off an ATS win. LSU is 2-8 ATS their last 10 home games. Arkansas has four double digit scores. Talk about balance they score 71 points a game at home and they score 70 points a game on the road. The Razorbacks will be motivated tonight to stay in first place in the SEC West. Arkansas is 9-3 ATS their last 12 games vs. losing teams and they are 7-0-1 ATS their last 8 meetings with LSU. PLAY ON ARKANSAS -
SPORTS WAGERS
TEXAS –9 over Oklahoma State
It’s amazing what a three-game winning streak does to a team’s tournament chances. On February 6th, Oklahoma State was 16-7 and 4-5 in conference play with virtually no shot at an at large bid. Suddenly, they beat Oklahoma at home, Iowa State on the road, and Baylor at home and are now considered a “sleeper” tournament team? What about the losses to Rhode Island and Tulsa – or the fact they lost to that same Oklahoma team on January 11th? That stuff just doesn’t get swept under the rug because they happen to be on a mini-run. Texas is still a powerhouse team that just got bored. These guys were 17-0 and even after this 3-6 stretch still have the best defense in the Big 12. Now, Texas does have problems at the free throw line (61.7%) but still has big time prospects like Avery Bradley, Jordan Hamilton, Damion Jones, Dexter Pittman and J’Covan Brown. All those guys will be playing in the NBA someday and will exploit an Oklahoma State defense that is frankly quite pedestrian for a so-called bubble team. They allow opponents to shoot 36.1% on three’s and rarely force turnovers, boasting awful block and steal rates, which are strong indicators of poor athleticism. Don’t over think this one. Texas has lost exactly twice at home to elite teams while Oklahoma State was left for dead two weeks ago. Aside from beating Baylor, Oklahoma State’s two wins came against the dregs of the Big 12. They haven’t magically turned it around to the point were they can come to Texas and hang with them for 40 minutes. They did us a favor by coming in hot and knocking a couple of points of this line but after tonight’s loss and next Saturday’s loss to Kansas we’ll finally stop hearing about this team as a potential “sleeper.” Play: Texas –8½ (Risking 2.1 units to win 2).
Oklahoma City +4/+1.60 over SAN ANTONIO
The Thunder are coming off a tough loss but this team has been incredibly resilient all year long and bouncing back after a loss is something they do well. Only five times this season has the Thunder suffered back-to-back losses and a closer look reveals that it occurred twice against the Lakers, twice against the Cav’s and once against Denver. That’s impressive indeed and now they’ll catch the Spurs in a tough spot. Besides being easier to beat in years, the Spurs return home from a long, eight game trip that concluded with losses in Philly and Detroit. They have very few wins this year against teams above .500 and in fact, of its 31 wins, only eight have come against teams above .500. This is a team that is old, banged up, and very beatable and while the Thunder are a team that is young, energetic and extremely tough to beat. Play: Oklahoma City +4 (Risking 1.05 units to win 1) Play Oklahoma City +1.60 (Risking 1 unit).
UTAH –7½ over Charlotte
The Bobcats are 7-20 on the road and they’re so overmatched here, it’s not funny. They seldom beat good teams on the road and they’re not playing so good right now either. They Cats are coming off back-to-back losses to Milwaukee and the Clip Joint, both on the road and they’ll now play its third straight away from home. The Jazz just might be the least flawed team in the league and the emergence of Kyrylo Fesenko gives them another potential star in the line-up. This guy does everything. He can shoot, he can defend, he blocks shots and he’s an outstanding rebounder. He’s also becoming a fan favorite in Utah and he energizes everyone in the same fashion that Karl Malone used to. The Jazz are coming off a home-loss to the Hawks but Atlanta had to be near perfect in that game against this Utah squad that was playing its fifth game in seven days and that was returning home from a five-game trip. The Jazz are wickedly good and they’re also the best coached team in the league, as Jerry Sloan has his club better prepped than any other coach in the business. Man, these Jazz are impressive, they’re also on fire and they’re getting better with each passing game. Play: Utah –7½ (Risking 2.1 units to win 2).
Craig Trapp
Ohio State vs. Penn State
Play: Ohio State -7.5
Penn St is coming off back to back wins in the Big Ten but both of those were against the bottom half of the league. Ohio State is coming off a huge win against MSU which still gives them a shot to win the conference. A must win today so don't expect a let down by OSU instead look for them to put away PSU in the first half and cruise to a double digit win. OSU is 4-1 ATS on road last 5 games. PSU is 3-8 ATS at home this season so don't start reading into the last two wins by PSU. Easy OSU win today!
BEN BURNS
Canada @ Russian
PICK: Canada
These two longtime rivals are arguably the two most talented teams in the tournament. Yet, the loser of this game will be knocked out, going home without a medal. That puts a lot of pressure on both teams. One could argue that the Canadians have more pressure on them, as they're playing on their home soil. That's probably true. That said, the Russians have plenty of pressure as well, as their entire country has disappointed in these Olympics and a loss by the hockey team would make things that much worse.
All that "pressure" aside, I feel that the Canadians will benefit from playing in front of their partisan fans. All the chants of "Go Canada Go" should serve as a positive, rather than a negative. With nearly half the country expected to watch the game on TV, there will be no quit, even if the team gets down.
Yes, the Canadians lost to the Americans. However, they actually had a commanding advantage in shots on goal in that game and lost largely because the American goalie (Miller) outperformed the Canadian one. The Canadians have changed goalies since then though, replacing the veteran Brodeur with the hometown hero, Luongo. Given Luongo's success in this building (he plays for Vancouver) I don't expect the Canadians to be at a disadvantage between the pipes this time.
I haven't played on the Canadians yet in this tournament. However, I feel that they're providing solid value tonight and look for them to ride the emotion of the home crowd to a victory. Consider Canada
LARRY NESS
Dayton @ Temple
PICK: Temple -4
Dayton was ranked 21st in the AP's preseason poll but lost two of three games in the Puerto Rico Tip-Off Classic and fell out of the national rankings by the end of November. A 68-66 loss at New Mexico on January 1 and a home win over Ball St on January 5 left the Flyers 11-3 in non-conference play. They are 7-5 in A-10 play so far, which places them 7th in a very top-heavy 14-team league. The A-10 will likely get five NCAA bids this year (maybe six?) with Richmond, Temple and Xavier all but 'locks.' That leaves Dayton fighting with St Louis, Charlotte and Rhode Island, all of which currently own better A-10 records. Temple sits at 22-6 overall and 10-2 in league play (tied with Xavier, a half-game back of Richmond). Temple is ranked 20th and has been led for most of the year by the senior-sophomore pairing in the backcourt of Brooks (14.9-4.7) and Fernandez (12.0-3.7 APG), joined by 6-9 junior Allen (11.4-10.3) up front. Recently however, 6-4 sophomore guard Ramone Moore has made a HUGE impact. Moore averaged a modest 5.2 PPG over Temple's first 21 games but all of a sudden he's become a team leader. He's led Temple in scoring in FIVE of the team's last six games (Owls are 5-1), a stretch in which the team's lone loss was 71-54 at Richmond on February 6 (he's averaging 18.0 PPG over the last six games). Dayton is led by 6-8 forward Chris Wright (14.7-7.2) and 6-6 swingman Chris Johnson (12.5-7.4). However, the Flyers are looking to avoid their fifth loss in six road games against a Temple team which is 11-2 SU at home, including 5-0 in the A-10. The Flyers were 11-1 in games decided by five points or less last year but they've lost six straight games decided by five points or less coming into this game. I don't believe this game will be as a close a five points but that won't make Dayton fans very happy, as I see the Owls winning comfortably. Lay the points.
LT PROFITS
The Drake Bulldogs have been on a nice Over run lately exceeding the total in 10 of their last 13 games, but we look for a much slower paced game when they visit the Missouri State Bears tonight.
After all, Missouri State plays good defense at home, allowing only 63.1 points per game on 41.4 percent shooting from the floor. They have held four of their last five home opponents to 66 points or less including keeping two of them in the 50s, and the Under is 7-6 in Bears home games this season compared to the Over going 9-3 when they are on the road.
The Bears are also a good rebounding team, especially on the defensive end where they only allow their opponents to grab offensive rebounds 28.6 percent of the time, which actually ranks an excellent 30 in the country according to the Pomeroy Ratings. We mention this because Drake is a poor rebounding team with just 26.4 boards per game including a woeful 22.3 percent offensive rebounding percentage, which ranks second to last in the country out of 347 teams!
This means that the Bulldogs will not get many second-chance points in this contest, and will have to rely on their perimeter offense to do their scoring. Granted, this has worked lately as their 10-3 Over run has been fueled by great three-point shooting. However, Drake has nothing to fall back on if their threes are not falling, such as in their last trip to Springfield when they were held to a measly 44 points.
Now this game may not be quite that low scoring, but Bears home games are averaging 136.2 points this season while Drake road games are averaging 136.5, so we do not see this game going higher than the mid 130s.
Pick: Drake/Missouri State Under 141