Rocketman
James Madison @ VCU
Play: James Madison +16
James Madison beat VCU 11 days ago at home by the score of 76-71. Although VCU may have revenge in mind, I can't help but believe they will be looking ahead to a meeting with Old Dominion on Saturday. Old Dominion sits at the top of the conference standings right now and appears to be the team to beat in the Colonial Conference. Dukes are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a SU win. Dukes are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Dukes are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a winning SU record. Dukes are 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings in VCU. Road team is 8-3 ATS in the last 11 meetings. We'll recommend a small play on James Madison tonight!
Steve Merril
Detroit Pistons vs. Los Angeles Clippers
Play: Detroit Pistons +4
Detroit has been one of the unluckiest teams in the NBA this year. The Pistons have had to juggle their lineup numerous times because of all the injuries they’ve gone through, and this season has been a struggle. However, the Pistons will present some good value going forward if they stay healthy for the remainder of the season. The Pistons are a much different team right now because they’ve got all of their players back to full strength. Richard Hamilton, Ben Gordon, and Tayshaun Prince are all back on the court, and the Pistons are now finally playing with their three offensive leaders. Detroit has only been playing with all three together in their last few games and the results have shown. The Pistons are 5-3 over their last eight games with two of the losses only coming by 6 points each. They won easily (101-89) last night in Sacramento; the Pistons led by a whopping 30 points in that game at one point. Five guys scored in double figures and ten guys played double digit minutes. It was an easy game for Detroit so the fact that they are playing on a back-to-back set against a rested Los Angeles team shouldn’t be much of a factor tonight although it is a bit concerning for reasons noted below. The Clippers come into tonight on a 2-game win and cover streak. Their recent trade shook things up, and their play on the court has been much better in their last two games. The Clippers are also playing their third consecutive home game and since they’ve won the previous two games straight-up as home underdogs, they carry a ton of momentum into this game. That is one of the main reasons why we are not making Detroit a Best Bet selection tonight. The Pistons have also struggled in back-to-back games as they are just 4-10-1 ATS in that situation, so despite the positive outlook we have for Detroit, we just don’t trust them enough in this spot tonight which relegates them to Free Play status.
Jimmy Boyd
1 Unit on Grizzlies/Wizards UNDER 199.5
This figures to be a tough game for both teams. The Grizzlies will have a tough time bouncing back tonight after getting their hearts ripped out by Kobe Bryant and the Lakers last night. Washington has played well since the All-Star break, but it just learned that it will be without Josh Howard for the rest of the season which leaves the team very shorthanded. The Under is 4-1 in the Grizzlies' last 5 overall (10-5 Under L15) and 8-2 in the Wizards' last 10 overall. The Under is also 4-1 in the Wizards' last 5 home games and 7-1 in their last 8 games as an underdog. We'll bet the Under tonight.
Jeff Alexander
1 Unit on Charlotte Bobcats +8
I feel the Bobcats are catching too many points tonight when you consider how motivated they'll be after playing so poorly against the Bucks and Clippers after defeating the Cavs. Plus, both Andrei Kirilenko and Deron Williams have been downgraded to doubtful for tonight's contest. Not having Williams on the floor especially hurts since he is the guy who essentially creates Utah's offense. Lastly, the Underdog is on an 8-3 ATS run in the last 11 meetings. Take the Bobcats and the points.
Info Plays
3* on Chicago Bulls -9
Reasons why the Bulls cover:
1.) System Play. We'll Play Against - Any team (INDIANA) - revenging a straight up loss vs opponent as a favorite, off a cover where the team lost the game straight up as an underdog. This is a 183-104 ATS System hitting 63.8% since 1996. This system has gone 9-1 this season alone.
2.) Danny Granger is doubtful tonight for Indiana, really hurting their chances of even being competitive tonight against a Bulls' team that is 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall. Chicago has won their last 2 home games by 32 and 33 points, respectively. Bet the Bulls at home.
Dave Price
1 Unit on Washington Wizards +1.5
Big letdown spot here for the Grizz after such an emotionally and physically draining loss last night. Losing Josh Howard hurts the Wizards, but I expect this team to rally in his absence tonight. Andray Blatche and Al Thornton are playing great and should be able to carry the load on their home floor this evening. The home team is 6-1-1 ATS in the last 8 meetings. The Wizards are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games overall and 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog. Take the Wiz.
Black Widow
1* on Lakers/Mavericks UNDER 195
Both the Lakers and Mavericks have stepped up their defense since the All-Star Break. The Lakers are allowing 89.8 points/game over their last 5 games. Dating back even further, the Lakers have allowed 98 or less points in 11 of their last 12 games overall. After a bad stretch of defensive play before the All-Star Break, Dallas has really picked up their effort on this end of the floor. Dallas is allowing 90.8 points/game over their last 5 games since the break. In a key Western Conference match-up tonight on National TV, look for both teams to put a lot of effort into this end of the floor. Neither team is really lighting it up on offense, either. The Lakers are scoring 97.2 points/game in their last 5, while Dallas is scoring 95.2 points/game in their last 5. The Lakers are 7-0 UNDER (+7.0 Units) as a road underdog this season. Dallas is 14-5 UNDER (+8.5 Units) revenging a loss vs opponent this season. Take the UNDER 195 points here.
Jack Jones
Oklahoma State +9
Oklahoma State has come on strong over the past couple weeks, winning three straight over Oklahoma, Iowa State and Baylor. The Cowboys are now 19-7 this season and on the inside most likely when it comes to the tournament. A win over Texas tonight would really help their cause, and they have the talent to pull it off. The Longhorns are just 4-6 SU & 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games overall, falling flat on their faces after a 17-0 start this season. In fact, Texas is just 2-12 ATS in their last 14 games. They should not be laying this many points tonight, especially with starting PG Dogus Balbay out for the season with a torn ACL for the Longhorns. OSU blew a 36-32 halftime lead to Texas in their first meeting this season, and they'll be looking to avenge that loss tonight.
Texas is 0-6 ATS off a win against a conference rival this season. They have had a very hard time stringing together wins over the past month. The Longhorns are 0-8 ATS after playing a road game this season. Texas is 1-8 ATS versus good defensive teams - shooting pct defense of <=42% after 15+ games this season. This play also falls under a system that is 54-24 (69%) over the last 5 seasons. This systems tells us to bet on Underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (OKLAHOMA ST) - after 2 consecutive covers as a favorite against opponent off a road win. Take the Cowboys.
Lenny Del Genio
SAN -3.5 vs OKL
Normally, we love to go against teams returning home for the first time off long road trips. Well, no team has an annual longer road swing than does the San Antonio Spurs, thanks to the rodeo coming to town. The trip normally consists of eight games and last nearly three weeks. Well, San Antonio returns home tonight to play Oklahoma City, so we're going with the Thunder right? Wrong. The schedule makers always give the Spurs a little "extra" time off to prepare for their return to the Alamo and it consistently pays off. And we're not talking about just for the team, but for bettors as well. Our records only go back to 2002, but in this "first home game back" situation, San Antonio is a remarkable 7-0 over that span with the average margin of victory coming by more than 18 PPG. That obviously counteracts our initial theory. Counteracting the Thunder's 17-4 ATS mark when coming off a spread loss is the fact that they are off a last second loss at home to Phoenix last night, where they blew a ten-point lead with 3:30 remaining. Kevin Durant is due for a bad game sooner or later, isn't he? Take San Antonio.
Sac Lawson
South Florida +13 vs Villanova
Villanova is in a tough spot tonight. They've run into a cold streak, and it's been stemmed by a few consecutive low scoring affairs. One has to wonder if this Villanova squad is starting to run out of gas. They played so many games in the mid 80's early in the season, and the last two games being played in the low 70's really have to be a concern to their followers. Two games ago we saw the size of Connecticut play a big roll in Villanova's struggles; this Nova team loves to get to the line, and UConn disallowed that by packing the paint with some lengthy bodies. South Florida finally has Gilchrist back, and the combination of him and Famous should provide a similar look in the middle that UConn showed. Also, the fact that we've seen Villanova struggle in slower tempo games, really gives us hope that one of the slower teams in the Big East can succeed, even here on the road.
Villanova is in a very tough lookahead spot as well. They've got a huge game against Syracuse coming up this weekend, and we've seen more teams fall in lookahead spots in this conference than in any other conference. South Florida will be fully motivated, coming off a game where they completely laid an egg, they know they have to have some success down the stretch in order to get into the top 8 in the league and have a first day bye in the conference tournament..
Definitely a game of importance for both teams, but the slower style that USF will come with gives them a natural advantage, and their size in the middle should disallow the speeds guards of Villanova to get to the lane, and as a result disallow them to get to the line (which is a key part of their gameplan). Let's roll with USF for 1 unit.
CS Northridge +8 vs UC Santa Barbara
UCSB is in a position to take the conference crown, they sit a half game ahead of Pacific right now. My issue is this: This is a very large amount of pressure to put on the shoulders of a team that is led by underclassmen. In my estimation, a veteran club would be a lot easier to back in this spot than a team that hasn't been in this spot before. Northridge has no pressure on their shoulders right now, the only thing that matters to them is getting a better sead in the conference tournament. They'll play free, without any weight on their shoulders, and a conservative, nervous UCSB club could be a bit shocked by the lackadasical attitude of the Matadores.
On thing that stands out about the inexperience of the Gauchos is the way they get bated into playing other teams' style. Northridge plays a very reckless style of basketball, and they put tons of pressure on the transition defense of their opponents, and get to the line with great efficiency. UCSB has been bated into a temp that is over their heads on numerous occassions against the faster paced teams in the conference, and as a result they've struggled against such teams. Northridge beat UCSB by 8 in the Matadome, and I respect the revenge angle here, but in my estimation that game was no fluke. Northridge's style of play really contradicts everything UCSB stands for, and if their young leaders don't stay disciplined, they'll get bated into the same uncomfortable game as they did earlier in the year.
This won't be popular among some, but I've seen these teams play a half dozen times each this season, and I feel like I've got a great handle on this conference. I would not be the least bit surprised to see Northridge win this one outright and really shake up the conference standings.
Mike Hook
DAL -2 vs LAL
Dallas is in a great spot here, as they get the Lakers off a game last night. They also get to face Kobe Bryant who is still getting his legs back after coming off his injury. Dallas won their original game this season against the Lakers, before losing the past 2 meetings. I love Dallas tonight simply because this play is full of VALUE. I think that Dallas is favored by so little based off the recent stretch of poor ATS results. However, i feel that Dallas is ready to go on a run thanks to the addition of Caron Butler and Brendan Haywood. Both of these players are great additions, and Butler ALWAYS gets up to play his fomer Lakers team.
Dallas is clearly one of the best teams in the NBA, and they will show that tonight. This is a showcase game for Dallas, and one could argue this game is far more important to the Mavericks than it is the Lakers. This is simply another game on the schedule for the Lakers, especially after their buzzer beating win last night. I think the fact the Lakers won their game last night at the buzzer makes them feel they can simply flip the switch whenever they want. I think tonight is going to be one of those situations where the Lakers are down by double digits for the majority of the game before thinking they can just pour it on in the 4th quarter. The problem is that Dallas is too good in the half court set, and too good at the free throw line. I like the Mavericks -2 tonight as my free play for today. I'm personally playing it for 1 UNIT! Let's have a great night!