Jeff Alexander
Iowa -9
Iowa's bubble likely burst after blowing a 16-point halftime lead in Saturday's loss at Nebraska, but I don't expect the Hawkeyes to roll over the rest of the way. Iowa lost in OT at Purdue in the first meeting, and that loss will provide plenty of incentive this evening. Purdue has been a terrible investment in the underdog role. It is 2-8 ATS as an underdog this season and 0-8 ATS as a road underdog of 6.5 to 9 points under coach Painter. Iowa is a lights out 19-7 ATS at home the last 2 seasons, including 6-0 ATS in February home games during this span. Bet Iowa.
Dennis Macklin
Toledo -1
This game features the two top teams in the MAC's Western Conference. Western Michigan is on a 9-2 L11 run and Toledo has won seven of eight so both teams are playing well and something has to give. The Broncos (WMU) (-3) easily won the first go around 79-56 back on January 16th shooting 56% from inside the arc but not sure that it was anything more than business as usual. You would be hard pressed to find a home court series stronger than this one with the homie winning eight of the last nine. Western Mich is just 2-7 SU and ATS over their L9 visits to John Savage Arena with their last two losses by 13 and nine points. Toledo is 4-1 in conference home games and while the Rockets are just 3-3 vs the points on their home floor, they are a money-making 7-2 in the role of bully. At home with same year conference revenge in a home court dominated series, laying just a point with the host is not much to ask. Take Toledo.
Joe Duffy
Dallas Mavericks vs. Memphis Grizzlies
Play: Memphis Grizzlies
As we alluded to on our “Back to Basics” article, podcast, and video, we have de-emphasized some key metrics, making them corroboration rather than a lead indicator for premium bets, but our “sharp versus square” angle still is very strong.
This is when our Vegas, offshore, and outlaw contacts tell us the majority of sharp money is betting one team, the square money the other. We go with the smart money as contrarian betting is used by many professional gamblers.
The Mavericks are an aging team playing three games in four nights including back to back. Again, one of our Golden Rules, rest benefits teams that need it the most. Hence lack thereof hurts those who need to make adjustments. The fact the Mavs are off consecutive home losses makes fading them a nice situation play in addition to sharp versus square.
Memphis has won seven in a row outright and 5-2 the last seven against the spread, plus they have a nice balance of rest, but yet not too much while in a groove (two days off) makes it even better.
They are gelling since getting Tayshaun Prince, Austin Daye and Ed Davis in a three-time trade. With another day off before playing Miami, they can go all out and continuing to develop that chemistry meaning they have legitimate motivation to run up the score a bit.
Jeff Scott Sports
3 UNIT PLAYS
Delaware -5 over HOFSTRA: The Pride haven't been playing with much pride his year as they stand at 7-22 overall and 4-12 within the CAA. Hofstra has won just 2 of their last 13 games and one of those was his past weekend over a 4-24 ODU squad. Prior to that win they had lost their last 4 by an average of 15.8 ppg. Hofstra is one of the worst offensive teams in the nation, averaging 58.5 ppg (333rd) and they are getting worse, having put up just 53.4 ppg in their last 5 games. Delaware has no such offensive problems as they have averaged 69.6 ppg (123rd) on the year and they are getting better, having put up 74.6 ppg in their last 5. Their defense is struggling, but they should look good tonight vs a bad Hofstra defense, plus the Blue Hens did allow them just 54 points in an earlier meeting this year. Hofstra does allow just 63.8 ppg at home, but the Blue Hens should eclipse that with ease tonight, meaning that Hofstra will have to score in the 60's to cover this. That won't happen here. Delaware by at least 10 in this one.
Virginia Tech/ Miami Over 133: The Hokies are a bad defensive team as they allow 74.1 ppg overall, including 80.3 ppg on the road and they could surrender a ton of points tonight vs a Miami squad that averages 73.8 ppg at home. The Canes do allow 56.7 ppg at home, but this Tech offense is no slouch as they have averaged 66.2 ppg in their last 5 games overall and 71.3 ppg on the road this year. Miami had two recent low scoring games (Virginia, Clemson), but if we take those two games out then we note that 8 of their last 10 games have averaged 141.5 ppg. The Hokies have played high scoring road games this year as their road games have averaged 152.1 ppg on the year. Miami is 39th in offensive efficiency, while Tech is 100th and that should translate into at least 140 points.
Purdue/ Iowa Over 131.5: Purdue allowed Northwestern just 43 points in their last outing, but they had allowed 80 ppg in their prior 3 games, while overall allowing 75+ points in 5 of their last 7 games. Now they take on an uptempo Iowa squad at a place where they average 75.2 ppg on the year. I clearly expect 70+ from the Hawkeyes in this one. Purdue does struggle to score on the road, but they should put up at least 60 in this one, especially since it should be an uptempo game. Both teams should get plenty of chances at putting up points in this one and that should get us no less than 135 points.
Eastern Michigan/ N. Illinois Under 108: C'Mon, you all had to know this one was coming. LOL. While I don't see just 67 points being cored in this one like the first meeting, I do not expect more than 100 points. The first meeting was nothing new for these teams and none of the last 4 games have put up more than 107 points, with the 4 games averaging just 88.5 ppg. E.Michigan does struggle on defense on the road (70.5 ppg), but fear not because NIU averages just 52.2 ppg on 34.4% shooting at home this year, while in their last 5 games overall they have scored just 50.1 ppg on 36% shooting. This is one of the worst offensive teams in the nation. On the other side we have an equally bad offensive team in EMU. The Eagles are 338th in the nation in scoring overall (57 ppg) and they score just 52.2 ppg on the road and NIU has allowed under 60 points in each of their last 3 home games. Both teams play slow as dirt paces and both team have two of the worst offenses i the nation. This one will be lucky to make it to 100 points.
Jeff Scott Sports
4 UNIT PLAY
Dallas/ Memphis Over 188.5: Last night the Mavericks played a game in which just 185 points were scored, but that is far from the norm for this team. Prior to last night's game, Dallas had played 17 straight games, in which at least 197 points were scored, with 16 of those games putting up at least 200 points. The Mavs offense has been hot, averaging 106.3 in their last 2 games and after putting up just 90 points last night you can bet they will look to score allot more in this one. The Dallas defense has not been good this year, as they allow 102.4 ppg overall and 98.8 ppg on the road and that should allow this anemic Memphis offense to score in the upper 90's in this one. I expect Dallas to do the same as we get at least 195 points from these two teams tonight.
3 UNIT PLAYS
New York/ Golden State Under 204.5: The Knicks are having all sorts of problems scoring right now as they have failed to scoe more than 100 points in each of their last 8 games and they have averaged just 92.8 pg in their last 5 games overall. The Warriors are not a great defensive team, but they have still allowed less than 100 points during regulation in 3 of their last 4 games. The Warriors offense is very good, but mostly at home. They do average 10.8 ppg on the road, but in their last 6 away from home they have averaged just 96.7 ppg. I also don't look for them to push the pace as much in this one, after playing an up and down game with the Pacers last night. Defensively the Knicks have been solid at home, where they allow 94.6 ppg, including allowing just 89.8 ppg in their last 6 here. Let's also note hat their last 6 at home have averaged just 118.3 ppg, with none of those games putting up more than 201 points. I really don't see either team hitting 100 points in this one.
Detroit/ Washington Under 190: Pretty much has been a low scoring series of late as 5 of the last 6 in this series has put up 183 points or less and I see about that much in this game. Detroit's offense has struggled of late, averaging just 90.7 ppg in their last 7 games and they average just 92.8 ppg on the road. Now they head to Washington where the Wizzard have been playing some good defense of late, allowing 90.3 ppg in 8 of their last 10 games. They did allow 113 and 105 points in BB games vs Houston and Denver, but those two team are offensive juggernauts and Detroit is nothing like that. Defensively Detroit has struggled of late, but Washington has also scored 90 points or less in 3 of their last 5 games. Not really allot of offense is expected in this game and we shold get a game in the low 180's.
Alf Musketa
Denver at Portland
Play: Denver
Portland won its last game 92-86 at home over the Boston Celtics; a solid win over a playoff team. But a closer look reveals that the Celtics were playing their fourth road game in five nights and were obviously running on fumes. Prior to that the Trail Blazers had lost seven games in a row including loses to bottom feeder teams like Orlando and Phoenix.
Denver on the other hand is firing on all cylinders. In their last game they shellacked the Los Angeles Lakers 119-108, outscoring them in fast break points 33-3. In the month of February the Nuggets are now 8-4 straight up while Portland is a woeful 3-8.
Yes, Denver has a poor record at the Rose Garden having lost six straight, and thus we believe that the early move in the line is based on this past history and not the current form of these ball clubs. Denver opened a -3.5 favorite and is now -2.5. Small forward Danilo Gallinari has a thigh bruise and is a game time decision – that also contributed to the line move. Without Gallinari in the line-up Wilson Chandler will get the start and versus the Lakers he poured in 23 points.
Denver has scored 100 points or more in 15 of its last 17 games. I do not envision Portland keeping up with the fast pace and current stellar play of the Nuggets and we'll lay the short price here.
Harry Bondi
NC STATE (-9.5) over Boston College
Look for NC State to take out it's frustrations on BC tonight. Wolfpack are coming off a disappointing loss to in-state rival North Carolina last Saturday and possess the athleticism that has given BC fits on the road all year. Eagles are 3-8 ATS on the road and the home team has covered 7 of the last 8 in this series. Pack bounces back tonight!