DAVE COKIN
EVANSVILLE AT NORTHERN IOWA
PLAY: EVANSVILLE +1.5
I won’t go so far as to label Northern Iowa a flop, but it’s fair to assess the Panthers season to date as a pretty good sized disappointment. UNI has a couple of nice wins on its ledger, having defeated both North Carolina and Iowa State. But this team has never really out it together and they limp into tonight’s game with a pedestrian 12-11 record, including a somewhat shocking 4-6 in MVC play.
Evansville was supposed to be pretty solid this year, and the Purple Aches have actually been even better than that. They’re 18-5 overall, 7-3 in league play, and Evansville appears to have a pretty good shot at making a case for an NCAA at-large invite if they take care of business down the regular season stretch.
I have this circled as the biggest remaining game on the slate for Evansville. They should be favored in all their pending battles, so a win here and this team at a 26-win campaign. Even minus the so-called signature win, the Aces would have to be a strong consideration by the committee if they win out.
This looks to be a good matchup for Evansville. Northern Iowa simply hasn’t been a particularly effective team on defense this season. Unless the Panthers get it together tonight on that end of the court, the Purple Aces are likely to get some good looks at the basket, and there’s not much question about Evansville’s ability to put the ball in the basket.
Looking at the stats, Evansville wins both the offensive and defensive efficiency battles. The Purple Aces were no match for powerful Wichita State over the weekend, but unless there’s a hangover from that game, I would expect this team to get right back on track tonight. Northern Iowa is obviously capable of winning this game and if the Panthers are sharp, I might be in trouble with my play on this game. But the black and white says Evansville is simply the better team at this juncture and I’ll be happy to take my chances with the Purple Aces as small road underdogs.
Rob Vinciletti
Pelicans vs. Spurs
Play: Spurs -13
The Spurs have double revenge on the New Orleans Pelicans tonight and have covered 18 of 24 vs losing teams and 7 of 10 when playing with revenge. The Pelicans have failed to cover 8 of 10 off a loss of 10+ points. Home favorites of 10 or more that lost to the spread by 1-3 points as a 10 or more point home favorite like the Spurs are 10-1 to the spread since 1995 vs a team off a home spread loss. Take the Spurs tonight.
Heath Mac
Wolves vs. Clippers
Play: Wolves +11½
The Timberwolves started off the season red hot on the road (but couldn’t win or cover at home), covering their first 9-10 games on the road. The books then tightened up on them, as the majority of their covers came when they were road dogs of around 7+ points. They weren’t good enough to win many games, but they had enough young talent and enthusiasm to keep the losses within single digits. Once the books tightened up and shaved a few points off their road dog spreads, it is no surprise that they stopped covering. Bizarrely, last night they were actually 4.5 road favorites against the Lakers – and lost outright by 4 points. That game has helped us with an extra couple of points here. This is the last game of a home stand before the Clippers hit the road and although we think they will win, the Wolves will do enough to keep it within the number.
The Timberwolves are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall. The Clippers are 2-5-1 ATS in their last 8 games playing on 2 days rest. The Timberwolves are 11-5 ATS in the last 16 meetings in Los Angeles. The Clippers are 5-10 ATS at home against West conference sides this season, with an average winning margin of just +2.5 points.
Scott Spreitzer
Warriors vs. Wizards
Play: Warriors -10
The Warriors have averaged over 120 ppg in nine tilts against teams playing between .400 & .490 basketball this season, covering eight of those contests. They head to DC off a 116-95 win and cover over New York last time out (we had the Warriors on these pages) and they have not let up one bit following a big win. In fact, GSW is 20-9 ATS after a win by at least 20 points, averaging 118 ppg in those 29 games. Yes, the Wizards have their work cut-out for them and they're a team on a 2-6 SU/ATS slide in their last eight games. Washington has fallen apart on the defensive end, allowing 114 points or more in four of their last five games, while giving up 115 ppg to their last five opponents, overall. The Wizards should be "just what the doctor ordered" for Steph Curry to get back on track. Curry has made just 18 of 47 shots over his last three games, but Klay Thompson has picked up the slack and then some, averaging 37 ppg while Curry "struggles." Washington has dropped six of their last seven ATS at home and we expect the trend to continue.
Jim Feist
Pelicans vs. Spurs
Play: Under 206
New Orleans heads out on the road and the under is 36-16-1 in the Pelicans last 53 road games. They have the worst-shooting backcourt in the NBA in Elfrid Payton and Victor Oladipo. They head to San Antonio, the No. 1 defensive teams in the NBA allowing 91.2 ppg. Spurs fans may be feeling their faith tested a bit after deflating losses to contenders Golden State and Cleveland, so expected a solid defensive effort here in bounce back mode. San Antonio is 13-3 under the total after a spread loss and 4-1 under in the Spurs last 5 vs. a team with a losing straight up record.
Marc Lawrence
Detroit Pistons at Boston Celtics
Prediction: Detroit Pistons
Edges - Pistons: 7-2 ATS away with one day of rest versus unrested opponents. Celtics: 1-5 ATS home without rest versus foe with one day of rest. With Boston on off a revenge road tussle at the Garden against the Knicks in New York last night, and playing its 7th game in 11 days, we recommend a 1* play on Detroit.
Big Al
Minnesota vs. L.A. Clippers
Pick: L.A. Clippers
Chris Paul & Co. come into this game off 4 straight wins, with the last two by double digits, 105-93 vs. the Lakers and 120-93 vs. Chicago. Off those two wins, the Clips fall into a 'momentum' system of mine, which is 118-63 ATS in the regular season since 1990. What we want to do is play on any .610 (or better) home favorite, priced from -4.5 to -11 points, if it's off back to back wins by 12+ points. Los Angeles has owned the T-Wolves of late, as they're 14-0 SU and 8-5-1 ATS since April 2012. And it's 13-5 ATS since Blake Griffin was sidelined by injury. Lay it.
Alex Smart
Cavs at Hornets
Play: Cavs -9.5
Coming home from a 4 game road trek, the Charlotte Hornets will be on tired legs tonight as they face a explosive Cavaliers (35-12), side that have quickened their pace of late and spread the floor while averaging 114.2 on 51.5 percent shooting. I do recognize that Charlotte has proven an ability to stuff the lane and play good defense, but their main problem.... is the other way in transition as their offense has proven inconsistent for quite some time as is evident by scoring 97 points or less in 5 of their L/8 overall. The Hornets will also be at a disadvantage as key point guard Kemba Walker sits in the opener of this four-game homestand because of a sore left knee as is scoring cog Nicolas Bantum (Toe). Road favorites like Cleveland with a line of 3.5 to 9.5 points - top tier team - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points per game, after scoring 105 points or more 3 straight games are a bankroll expanding 132-70 L/202 games for a powerful 65% conversion rate ATS. Play on the Cleveland Cavaliers to cover
Sleepyj
Chicago +2
Yes, I'm going with the Bulls tonight...They haven't been kind to me over the last few days, but tonight i will roll with them again...The Kings are a bit banged up right now with Cousins, Rondo and McLemore....Cousins is dealing with an ankle injury, but he should go tonight..I doubt he will be 100%, but a 80% Cousins is still as good as a 100% Gasol IMO...Rondo is a issue here tonight..He is dealing with some turf toe issues and his status..McLemore might be a no go tonight as well...My gut feeling is the Kings rest 1 or 2 of these guys tonight...Bulls road trip hasn't been great, but they can squeek out this win..A OT loss in Utah should wake this team up right now..Gasol has been playing great and he can hit his shots tonight...D. Rose has played well and Butler got it going last game..Mirotic being out for the Bulls has hurt them for sure, but the Kings bench isn't all that great..It;s going to take a big effort and defensive play from the Bulls to get back on track..I think they get it done here and avoid 3 straight road losses on this current road trip..I'll take a shot with the Bulls here and hope they get back on track...I think they deliver tonight.
Ken Thomson
Mississippi -3
After playing their toughest stretch of this season's schedule Ole Miss should take advantage of one of the weakest teams from a Power Conference, the Missouri Tigers. The Rebels were cruising along but a key injury to 2nd leading score & leading rebounder, Sebastian Saiz, things have been rough the past 3 weeks. Sais had eye surgery and could be back any time which will really help Andy Kennedy's Rebs to get back in the thick of things and ready for a run in the SEC Conference Tournament. Stefan Moody ( 24 ppg ) has been hurting with a sore hamstring but should lead the way tonight in this road tilt in Columbia vs. Mizzou. The Rebels have been close in several of their losses and should be hungry for a win tonight. Moody will be by far the best player on the court and I expect him to have a huge game and lead the way for Ole Miss. Kevin Puryear & Wes Clark are decent players for the Tigers but Clark is the only threat from trifecta range and the Rebels will be quick to deny him open looks from downtown. Mizzou shoots less than 30% as a team from three and struggles in the paint as well. Barring a weak start on the road, I expect the Rebels to roll.
Larry Ness
Miami Heat at Dallas Mavericks
Prediction: Dallas Mavericks
Dallas (28-23) has played a league-high 19 games in the new year, going 9-10 while averaging 97.8 PPG. The schedule hasn't provided much relief lately with the Mavericks splitting the first two of this stretch of five games in seven days. Dallas hosts Miami tonight and the team’s five games in seven days stretch concludes with back-to-back meetings against San Antonio and Memphis this weekend. Dallas fell 112-97 at Atlanta on Monday, shooting 36.5 percent from the floor and 7 for 26 from three-point range. "I mean, we're still in the middle of a tough stretch with five games in seven nights. We've got another one Wednesday, and it's a tough one," Dirk Nowitzki (17.5-6.6) told the team's official website. "But we just have to grind it out, especially with a few guys out."
Devin Harris could be out for a sixth straight game with a left toe sprain and the Mavs might be missing PG Deron Williams (13.9-5.3 APG) after he bruised his hip Monday. "I don't know anything about a timetable or anything like that," coach Rick Carlisle said. "But I'm concerned." Dallas has lost EIGHT of the last nine meetings with the Heat, including a 106-82 embarrassment in Miami back on New Year’s Day. However, the Mavs catch the Heat off a 115-102 loss last night in Houston (playing without Dwight Howard), as center Hassan Whiteside (12.3-11.2) missed a SIXTH consecutive game.
Whiteside dominated that first matchup with 25 points and a season-high 19 rebounds and I’m going to take a chance on the Mavs to pick up a rare win vs the Heat, as Miami had LBJ on its side for SIX of those eight wins in that nine-game span I mentioned earlier.
Tony George
Southern Illinois vs. Wichita State
Play: Wichita State -17.5
Talk about a dominating cover team in conference action! Wichita State is just pounding Mo Valley opponents - period. They are 9-1 (SU and ATS) in Conference action this year and just owning the Mo Valley. Since Van Fleet returned to the team after injury they have won 14 out of 15 games, and their lone loss was an OT game at Seton Hall. They have won all but 1 conference home game by 20 points or more. Did I mention they have covered every single Mo Valley Conference Game except 1 this season (9-1 ATS). This is a complete team with deep experience that can light you up light a Christmas Tree if you decide to not play defense. They are well coached, have an all star player in Van Fleet and they are an experienced team who does not let off the throttle at home.
To add fuel to the fire the Shockers already beat the tar and feathers out of Southern Illinois ON THE ROAD by a score of 83-58 gents and the line here is 15.5, on the strongest home in the Valley!
Matt Fargo
Ole Miss vs. Missouri
Play: Missouri +3
It has been a tale of two seasons for Mississippi which opened 12-2 but has since gone 1-5 with the lone victory coming at home. The Rebels were 4-0 on the road but have since lost four straight games on the highway including a defeat at Kansas St. on Saturday in the Big 12/SEC Challenge. They have covered three straight games which is making them overpriced here as well as the fact of who they are playing. Missouri has struggled as it has dropped six straight games to fall to 1-7 in the SEC. The Tigers are winless away from home, going 0-6 in true road games and 0-3 on a neutral floor but they are a much more respectable 8-4 at home. They are coming off their worst shooting game of the season as they made just two of 25 shot from long range against Mississippi St. but overall the Tigers are hitting 45.1 percent from the floor at home. They are in a good bounce back spot as going back, the Tigers are 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 games following a double-digit loss at home.
Brian Hay
St Bonaventure vs. St. Joe's
Play: St. Joe's -6½
St Josephs has an overall record of 18-3 and a home record of 9-2. They are 14-6 against the spread. St Bonaventure comes into this game with an overall record of 13-6 and a road record of 4-4. They are 9-5 against the spread. St Josephs has been playing great basketball. St Joe has lost just one game since December and that came against VCU, a game they certainly should have won but gave it away at the very end of the game. They really have not had many competitive games for their 18 wins. St Bonaventure is simply not ready to challenge the top teams in the Atlantic 10. St Joe gets the easy win and cover here for your Free Play Winner.
Jimmy Boyd
Kansas State +12
I really like the value here with the Wildcats catching double-digits on the road against in-state rival Kansas. The Jayhawks have owned Kansas State at home and the Wildcats haven't been great on the road. I just don't see Kansas taking this game serious enough to turn it into a blowout, especially off a huge overtime win at home against Kentucky last time out.
As for Kansas State, there's the no doubt that they are going to come into this game extremely motivated against their in-state rivals. While the Wildcats are just 3-6 on the road, only 1 of their 4 conference losses have come by more than the number here and that was against West Virginia. Kansas State only lost by 3-points at Texas, lost by 7 in overtime at Baylor and by just 10-points at Oklahoma. On the flip side of this, Kansas' only Big 12 win at home by more than the spread here was against Baylor in the conference opener and that includes a mere 7-point win at home against TCU.
The Wildcats are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games against a top-level team that's won more than 80% of their games, 9-1 ATS record this season against strong defensive teams that are holding opponents to 42% or worse from the field and 8-1 ATS in their last 9 after failing to cover the spread in 2 of their last 3. Jayhawks are just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 off a SU win and 1-5 ATS in their last 6 against a team with a winning record.