Brandon Lee
Oklahoma State vs. Texas Tech
Play: Oklahoma State +6
I just don't trust the Red Raiders laying this many points at home against Oklahoma State. Texas Tech is playing with zero confidence right now and aren't exactly in a great spot. The Red Raiders come in off a crushing 68-75 overtime loss at Arkansas, which followed two games against two of the elite teams in the Big 12 in West Virginia and Oklahoma. This isn't a team with NCAA Tournament hopes and I could see them overlooking this game with a huge road showdown against rival Texas on deck. Texas Tech is just 1-7 ATS in their last 8 off a SU loss and 1-5 ATS in their last 6 against a team with a winning record. Oklahoma State is 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 and 13-3 ATS in their last 16 after two straight games that finished under the total.
Alex Smart
Sabres vs. Canadiens
Play: Sabres +130
The Montreal Canadians are in a free fall, and are just 5-19-1 in their L/25 games and are a sub par 2-8-0 at home and have failed to log points in consecutive games while averaging a league-low 1.84 goals and allowing 3.24. Les Canadiens have scored just 16 goals in its last nine games while allowing 34. In the Habs first game back from the all star game they lost by a 4-2 count to Philadelphia. Meanwhile, Buffalo despite of losing three of their L/4 look like their rebuilding program is showing some promise, behind a good looking goalie in Robin Lehner who has performed admirably with a 2.02 goals-against average and ..948 save percentage during the Sabres three losses, which ere mentioned above. He stole a win for Buffalo in their last game before the all star break making 43 saves in a 3-2 win vs the Ottawa Senators, and is poised to thwart a struggling Habs offense in this spot that continues to play without their star goalie Carey Price (knee).
Power Sports
Denver vs. Utah
Pick: Utah
The Jazz are a team to keep an eye on. Certainly better than their (22-25) SU record, they are one of only five teams in the West w/ a positive point differential. This is the fourth straight game where it looks as if the public may be unwilling to lay points w/ them, which based on the previous three results would be a mistake.
When it comes to exceeding expectations, Denver deserves a mention here as well. Somehow, the Nuggets have managed to cover eight of their last nine games. The most recent one saw them go to Toronto and beat what had been a red hot Raptors team, 112-93 as 4.5-pt dogs. However, I believe that result has led to them being overvalued for tonight's contest. Consider that the Nuggets still are just 4-11 SU/5-9-1 ATS this season when coming off a SU win as an underdog. Just to show where they "fit in" the overall marketplace, this marks the 22nd consecutive game where they'll be the underdog.
Defensively, only the Spurs, Heat and Cavs allow fewer points per game than the Jazz. Over the course of the last three games, all of which have seen them cover as favorites (average margin of victory = 17.0 ), they've given up an average of just 86.3 PPG. That gives them a pretty solid 14-8 ATS mark when laying points this season. The team is now essentially fully healthy, something that really wasn't the case for much of January. This is the third meeting of the season between these two teams and Utah has won the previous two (by 12 and 9 pts), allowing only 86 PPG. My recommendation would be to lay the points here.
Jesse Schule
Denver vs. Utah
Pick: Denver
The Nuggets have been quite competitive recently, winning six of their last 12 overall. During that span they've only suffered one double digit loss, and they've covered the spread in five of their last six road games. They haven't had a lot of success against the Jazz in recent seasons, losing four of the last five in this series, with the total going under in four of five as well. Denver is getting a bigger cushion in tonight's game than in any of those previous five, and they could be catching Utah at a good time.
The Jazz have won three straight, and could be due for a let down after knocking off Chicago by a score of 105-96. Utah owns the league's 4th best defense, holding opponents to just 96.7 points per game. They rank among the worst in the NBA in scoring though, averaging just 97.9 points per game. Six of the last seven meetings between these two teams have failed to reach the total, and I expect a tight, low scoring affair here tonight.
Nelly
Texas Tech - over Oklahoma State
Texas Tech opened the season 11-1 with the lone loss coming in a tight neutral site game against Utah. After going 9-0 at home to start the season including a Big XII opener win over Texas the Red Raiders have lost three straight home games. The defeats vs. Kansas, Baylor, and West Virginia all came in very close games however. With defeats in seven of the last eight games this is a critical juncture for the Red Raiders who can't afford to be buried deeper in the Big XII standings. Oklahoma State had a favorable SEC draw facing Auburn on Saturday and coming away with a win but that was the first road win of the season for the Cowboys. In four Big XII road games Oklahoma State has lost by 17, 17, 5, and 16 and they have not faced Kansas, Iowa State, or Oklahoma on the road yet this season. Oklahoma State lost in Lubbock last season and this will be a daunting second straight road game ahead of a big home date with Iowa State this weekend. Both teams have issues on defense and in a matchup that looks fairly similar statistically Texas Tech has battled through the far tougher Big XII slate to this point while working with situational edges as well following Saturday's overtime loss. Texas Tech isn't a team anyone should be overly comfortable laying points with but this matchup sets up well for the Red Raiders to be on point.
Drew Martin
Boston College at Virginia
Play: Under 123.5
The 9th ranked Virginia Cavaliers welcome the last place Boston College Eagles to Charlottesville tonight in what projects to be one of the more lopsided matchups of the year in ACC conference play. Tonight’s matchup pins a top-tier defense vs. an inept offense that statistically is among the worst offenses in the nation. The Cavaliers are on a four-game winning streak thanks to a return to the defensive form that's been a staple throughout Tony Bennett's tenure. "I think defense is a hard one to figure out for us. It just takes such a commitment to it. We've had a lot of teaching moments because of the defense this year to be honest." Virginia is still stingy at home where it's 10-0 and allowing 60 points per contest. That does not bode well for Boston College (7-14, 0-8) who has failed to score more than 64 or shoot better than 46.9% while losing all its ACC games by an average of 21 points. The Eagles' closest margin of defeat in the league came in a 72-62 loss to Florida State last Tuesday. The Eagles have averaged over 70 possessions their last three games vs. teams that run and still have averaged only 57 points. The Eagles offense is 338th in the nation in tempo and the Virginia defense is 349th in the nation for average possession length. Boston College will not get anywhere near 70 possessions tonight, therefore likely fall well short of their season average points per game. A 24-point spread diminishes the odds of a foul fest and UVA will be looking to end this one early with a key conference game on Saturday at Pitt. Tonight’s game projects to be a very slow paced, conservative, and non-competitive which puts us on the under.
Wunderdog
Atlanta @ Philadelphia
Pick: Atlanta -8
Atlanta has won the first two meetings with Philadelphia by an average of nearly 25 points. That includes a 126-98 win on Jan. 7 when Kent Bazemore scored 22 points and the Hawks shot 53.3 percent from the field. Atlanta snapped a three-game losing streak beating Dallas 112-97 on Monday when Jeff Teague finished with 32 points, eight assists and five rebounds. The Hawks held the Mavericks to 36.5 percent from the field and 7-of-26 from beyond the arc. The 76ers made a big comeback but fell just short, losing 108-105 to Golden State on Saturday. Isaiah Cannan led six players in double figures with 18 points. The Hawks are 4-1 ATS their last five meetings in Philadelphia and the rest probably won't help the Sixers as they are 1-8 ATS after at least three days off. Lay the points and play the Hawks.
Bruce Marshall
VCU -14.5
Lacking depth and firepower beyond top-scoring G Jordan Price (20.6 ppg), La Salle HC John Giannini has been forced to resort to slowdown tactics to control the pace. But that has not prevented the outmanned Explorers from losing six straight, all by DD margins. Hungry VCU is making a push for Big Dance at-large consideration with its current 11-game win streak (8-1 last nine vs. the line), with hot jr. G JeQuan Lewis (22 ppg last four) taking a bit of the offensive load off backcourt mate and leading scorer Melvin Johnson (18.4 ppg).
GoodFella
TWolves / Clippers Over 105 1st Half
I would play this up to over 106 fwiw. Both clubs prefer to play an uptempo game & this game should be played with very fast pace. These Clippers will look to wear down these TWolves who played a close game last night vs the Lakers. The TWolves will gladly play along with the fast paced game & I have this 1st half having at least 106 points here.
Ray Monohan
Pelicans vs. Spurs
Play: Spurs -13
The Spurs welcome in the Pelicans to AT&T Arena and any time the Spurs take to their home court, they have value. San Antonio is a perfect 26-0 ATS at home and a brilliant 18-8 ATS in those 26 games. This game also holds a bit of a revenge factor as the Pelicans routed the Spurs back on 11/20 in New Orleans. New Orleans is just 5-18 on the road this season as they average just 98.4 points per game away from home. This team just isn’t the same when they take to the road and add that to them playing against a perfect home team, this is a recipe for disaster. Expect a very lopsided win here from the Spurs as laying the points holds plenty of value.
Scott Rickenbach
Wolves vs. Clippers
Play: Under 208½
The Clippers had not recorded an over in five straight games until, out of the blue, they simply shot lights out against the Bulls on Sunday. That 120 point scoring performance featured a rare explosion of points in the 2nd half for the Clippers and that is simply helping to drive line value for the under here because I fully expect a return to normalcy tonight. Lets not forget that have allowed 93 points or less in 5 of their past 6 games! The Timberwolves recorded an over against the Lakers here in LA last night but they shot ridiculously well and, the Lakers were willing to run with the T-wolves. Minnesota won't see such a "run and gun" style of play tonight. The Clips will slow this one down and lets not forget that Minny was held to 93 points or less in each of their two prior games. Minnesota is a young team that likes to run and play loose in transition but the Clippers won't allow that style of play tonight. 13 of the Clips 21 games against teams with a losing record this season have resulted in an under. The T-wolves have seen 63 of their past 105 games stay under the total when they are off of a game where they allowed 105 points or more. They know they can't play D like they did in the loss to the Lakers last night. Look for a lot more defense tonight.
Jack Jones
New Orleans Pelicans +13.5
The New Orleans Pelicans are showing great value today as massive 13.5-point road underdogs to the San Antonio Spurs. I look for them to be competitive in this game four four quarters and to easily stay within this spread, which will be their largest of the season.
The Pelicans have really turned the corner in recent weeks. They have gone 7-3 SU in their last 10 games overall. In fact, five of their last six losses have come by 5 points or less, and they have only lost one of their last 13 games by more than this 13.5-point margin.
The San Antonio Spurs are an impressive 26-0 at home this season, but they are overvalued as a result when playing at home. The betting public knows about this home winning streak and are quick to back the Spurs because of it. But laying 13.5 points to the Pelicans is too much.
New Orleans has had San Antonio's number in recent meetings, going 4-1 SU & 5-0 ATS in the last five with its only loss coming in overtime by a final of 95-93 on the road. The Pelicans are 24-9 ATS vs. teams who make 46% or more of their shots over the last two seasons.
Dave Price
Arizona -10
The Arizona Wildcats got their wake-up call with back-to-back losses to California and Oregon. They responded with an 80-63 blowout victory over Oregon State last time out, and now I look for them to put another beat down on Washington State tonight. The Cougars are probably the worst team in the Pac-12. They have gone 1-8 SU & 2-7 ATS in conference play this season and stand little chance of staying within double-digits of the Wildcats tonight. Arizona has dominated Washington State over the past five years, going 9-0 SU & 9-0 ATS in its last nine meetings with the last five all coming by 14 points or more.
SPS Investors
VCU vs. La Salle
Pick: La Salle
The perception of these teams couldn't be any more different heading into this contest and that is where we believe it has a serious effect on the line. The VCU Rams are one of the hottest teams in the country at the moment. They are currently riding an 11 game winning streak, are undefeated in league play thus far this season and are on the verge of cracking the Top 25 rankings. Meanwhile, the La Salle Explorers are essentially having a season many would like to forget. They have lost 6 in a row and currently occupy the basement of the A-10 with only 1 conference win this season. On the year they have managed only 5 total victories which have left a majority of the betting public afraid to back them.
These type of situations are unique in that they typically create a good amount of value. Given the way the Explorers have been playing, they have turned into somewhat of an "auto-fade" for much of the betting public. This is incredibly dangerous as it allows the oddsmakers a chance to inflate spreads (as much as a few points) over the average knowing that the public will ultimately be wagering on the other side no matter what the spread and this is what we believe has happened here. VCU is no doubt a quality team, however we believe their recent success has actually hurt them heading into this contest as many believe this game should be a blowout. While that certainly could be the case, laying double digits on the road is almost always a risky proposition and opens a team up for a late backdoor cover.
There is no question that the Explorers have had a down season thus far. They have lost 6 in a row and while that may be an extremely negative to most people, we actually look at that as a strong motivating factor heading into this contest. No player, coach or team likes to be embarrassed, especially on their home court. This entire organization is hungry for a victory and in this contest; they now have a team coming on their home floor with a spotlight on them. VCU is garnering national attention and making some noise in the college world. What better way for the Explorers to gain back some of their confidence than stopping the momentum of the Rams in this contest. While many believe that is no possible, it was only a few short weeks ago when a red-hot Dayton Flyers team entered this building and were completely handled from start to finish as the Explorers managed to pull off the outright victory as hefty underdogs. La Salle does not need to win this game outright; they just need to keep it respectable on the home court and we believe they can do just that. This game likely won't be pretty at times, but we believe the Explorers find a way to keep things close by the final buzzer and the points come into play.
SPORTS WAGERS
MONTREAL -½ +120 over Buffalo
Regulation only. While we like the direction of the Sabres, this is still a team that is spending too much time in their own end and allowing far too many scoring chances. In their last four games, the Sabres have been outshot 36-22, 33-26, 45-19 and 35-28. That said, this one is all about backing the Habs once again as oppose to fading the Sabres. What we know for sure is that the Sabres are a very beatable hickey team.
Montreal had the All-Star break to think about back-to-back losses to the Jackets. Last night’s loss in Philadelphia was the Canadiens third loss in a row and 20th loss over their last 25 games. Montreal is not a weak team but a black cloud has been hanging over them for an extended period of time. Outside of Carey Price, the Habs are a healthy team that is playing too well to lose games at this pace. They didn’t play poorly last night either, as they fought back from a 2-0 deficit to tie it until late in the third when Philly put one in behind Mike Condon. The Flyers would add an empty-netter to seal Montreal’s fate.
Enough is enough already. We can almost assure you that Montreal is going to play this one like it’s the seventh game of the Stanley Cup Final. They are going to come out with an intensity level not seen this year and they are likely going to maintain it for 60 minutes. Montreal is a steamed and fired up club. They have not taken this much media heat in a very long time and it’s time to put a stop to all this nonsense. Off for eight days, Buffalo is walking into a firestorm here.