SPORTS WAGERS
Davidson +6½ over GW
We actually trust that the Wildcats have a better chance of winning this one outright than the Colonials do. For one, Davidson has the best player on the court in Jack Gibbs. Gibbs has gone off this season, increasing his scoring average from 16.2 PPG to an obscene 25.3 PPG. He does it in style too by taking seven three-pointers a game and hitting them at a 36% percent rate (actually lower than last year’s 42.5 percent mark so he may heat up even more). Regardless, Gibbs gives Davidson a shooter’s chance in any game. Davidson’s out-of-conference strength of schedule (SOS) ranks 92nd in the country while GW’s SOS ranks 216th. That’s a difference of 124 positions and it matters. Overall SOS favors the Wildcats by a wide margin also of 63 to 166. The Wildcats are taking back this many points because their results in those tough games are not favorable. Davidson lost by 33 to UNC and by 25 to Pitt. They also lost by 26 to California and by nine in Saint Louis while surrendering an alarming 96 points to the Billikens. However, the Wildcats are coming off some good performances that include an eight-point win over a very good Richmond squad and they hung tough with the red-hot VCU Rams in their last game. VCU won by 10 but Davidson was within two with six minutes left. Lastly, the Wildcats defeated the Colonials both times last year so they’ll bring that confidence to the court here.
The Colonials are 16-5 overall and they have some notable wins over Virginia, Tennessee and Seton Hall. However, those three victories all occurred before December 4. More recently, GW is 4-3 over its past seven games and they appear to be getting worse instead of better. Over those seven games, the Colonials played three of the four last place teams in the A-10 in Saint Louis, George Mason and UMass. They went 3-0 against that trio but pretty it was not with a three-point win over the Billikens and a six-point win over George Mason. They also have a four-point win over Rhode Island over those aforementioned last seven games. We could just as easily be discussing a team on a 1-6 run. Isn’t this about the time of year when George Washington fades into the floorboards? Offensively, it’s no contest. GW would have to really bring it on defense to hold the Wildcats down. They might, and if they do, they still might not cover this game. The floor always seems tilted against GW when they play a good team at this time of the season but the market only sees wins and losses, thus inflating the number in our favor. GW is not to be trusted to win, let alone win by a margin.
NORTHERN IOWA -1 over Evansville
We get a pretty sweet number here because Evansville (18-5 overall, 7-3 in the conference) has a much better record than Northern Iowa (12-11 overall, 4-6 in the conference). However, we have some questions about the Aces abilities. Only five teams shoot 3-pointers less often than Evansville’s 24-percent rate, and the Aces make almost no effort to grab offensive boards. They rank 225th in the nation in rebounding and their ranking goes even lower on the offensive end. The Purple Aces best win this year came against whom? Belmont? The Aces out-of-conference strength of schedule ranks 304th in the country. They have literally beaten nobody.
On the heels of a dream season in which the Panthers won 31 games and played in the NCAA tournament, they have not come close to matching those wins this season. Gone are MVC Player of the Year Seth Tuttle, along with fixtures Nate Buss, Deon Mitchell and Marvin Singleton. However, Coach Ben Jacobson still has enough talent to execute his methodical, efficient system and while it’s taken some time to gel, UNI might just be ready to make a big push. Early this season, Jacobson's moves have included increasing the workload for guards Wes Washpun and Jeremy Morgan. Without Tuttle around to clean up the defensive boards, UNI's defensive efficiency has slipped but 6-foot-9 Bennett Koch is maturing quickly and he’s having an impact. The Panthers have wins over then #1 North Carolina and then #5 Iowa State. UNI’s oit-of-conference schedule ranked 31st in the country, which is a far cry from Evansville ranking of 304. The Purple Aces weak scheduling is going to catch up to them, therefore their margin for error is razor thin. Evansville’s strong record might be the most misleading in the country and we’ll look to exploit that here.
Harry Bondi
EVANSVILLE +1 over Northern Iowa
Purple Aces are a really good team, as shown by their 18-5 record, but we are catching some nice value with them tonight as they are coming off a loss to the Missouri Valleys best team, Wichita State. Evansville has also been good on the road this season going 6-2 ATS and have won and covered 7 of their last 9 games versus Northern Iowa. Aces guard D.J. Balentine always plays well in Cedar Falls where he has averaged 20.3 PPG at the McLeod Center. Good defensive match-up for Evansville as well as UNI relies on the 3-point shot and Evansville is 86th in the nation in 3-Point FG defense, which is third in the Missouri Valley. Evansville is a more experienced and talented squad and get the win on the road over UNI.
Bruce Marshall
Creighton +12
Not at all afraid to buck overvalued Nova, which has dropped its last five spread decisions. Jay Wright's highly-ranked Cats are getting the best shot from most of their opponents, but Nova has been doing its part to keep foes in the game by connecting on only 31.9% beyond the arc. Creighton (82 ppg; 5-2 last seven vs. line) has enough firepower to make things interesting, and the Bluejays dare desperate for a marquee win that can gain the attention of the Big Dance selection committee. Creighton's Boston U transfer, G Maurice Watson, Jr. (14.1 ppg for the season; 17 ppg last four) has made a smooth transfer to upgraded Big East competition.
Brad Wilton
Yes, St. John's covered on Sunday at home against Villanova, and yes they also covered the first meeting this season at home against Xavier, but the losing streak for first year coach Chris Mullin is now at 12 in a row, and the Red Storm is a less than stellar 4-8 against the spread in those dozen losses.
Xavier just blasted DePaul by 21 points, and they are on a 13-4 spread run their last 17 games. The Musketeers also own a 10-1 mark at the Cintas Center, and while they have only covered 6 of 11 against the spread, it seems very unlikely that the Johnnies who have failed 6 of 9 lined road games this season, and continue to lose touch the longer the game wears on.
The season of misery continues for the punchless Red Storm who lose touch yet again as the losing streak balloons to 13 in a row with another lopsided setback.
X marks the spot!
Lay it.
4* XAVIER
Jeff Benton
Your Wednesday freebie is Wichita State over SIU.
Tough to pick the spot where the Wheat Shockers are going to slip up, as Gregg Marshall's team is dealing at full strength after early season injuries, and a challenging pre-conference slate had Wichita State spinning their wheels.
The Shockers have rattled off 11 straight wins, and 10 covers in those 11 wins, and that includes an 83-58 win and cover at Southern Illinois back on January 9th.
SIU comes into this one riding a 2-game straight up and against the spread losing streak, and the Salukis have failed in each of the past 10 series meetings straight up, while dropping 2 of the last 3 against the spread.
I know Southern Illinois stands at 18-5 straight up, and I know on paper this seems like a large impost, but as I said, I am not about to pick the spot the Wheat Shockers are going to stumble, especially not at home where they have yet to lose in 10 games, and have covered in 6 of 8 on line.
Wichita State the play.
5* WICHITA STATE
Craig Davis.
Your free play of the day is the Boston Celtics minus the points at home over the Detroit Pistons. At the time of this writing, the Celtics are laying around 4 1/2 points in Vegas and offshore.
Boston's bench continues to dominate and has helped them to continue to inch their way up the Eastern Conference standings. They were huge in a much-needed win over New York Tuesday and they're going to be needed just as badly tonight vs. another surging team in the East... the Detroit Pistons.
Tyler Zeller poured in a season high 16 points and 10 boards while other reserves Evan Turner and Kelly Olynyk did their best to tell coach Stevens they want to be starters.
While Detroit has plenty of talent in their own right, Boston is playing better defense right now and they have a deeper bench. Those two things will propel them to an 8+ point win tonight at home.
Take the Pistons as your free play of the day.
2* BOSTON
Chris Jordan
One thing is for sure, and that is Brad Stevens is proving he can coach in the NBA. The move hasn't been dramatically successful, but since arriving in Boston, he's gradually made progress. And now his Celtics are making progress in the Eastern Conference. I love the Celtics to win and cover tonight against the ailing Detroit Pistons, who are 5-7 since while surrendering an average of 105.4 points per game since Jan. 9.
Boston will be motivated to win this game, too, as it has lost two of three to the Pistons this season, already, including a 99-94 home loss Jan. 6. That setback triggered a season-worst four-game skid, so that should add fuel to the fire. Since then, however, the Celtics have registered nine wins in 12 games to climb up the East standings, where they're now tied with Southeast Division-leading Atlanta for the third-best record in the conference.
Last night the Celtics scored a 97-89 victory at New York, giving Boston six wins in seven games. Now they return home, where they've won five straight at TD Garden, and have held six of their last seven opponents to less than 43 percent shooting.
Lay the chalk tonight, as Boston gets it done.
5* BOSTON
Gabriel DuPont
Tonight's free play: Golden State (-10) at WASHINGTON
The STORYLINE in this game today - No matter what hiccups the Golden State Warriors seem to encounter, even against lesser competition, they seem to know how to pull away and win. Big. Tonight I like them to destroy the Washington Wizards, even on the road, during what has become a tiresome road trip.
The X-FACTOR in making this choice on this game - My x-factor is Philly and New York. Those were the first two stops for the Warriors during this road trip. And Golden State nearly blew a 24-point lead in Saturday's 108-105 win over lowly Philadelphia before scoring a season-low 18 points in the first quarter of Sunday's 116-95 victory against New York. After a couple of days to rest, the Warriors, who are 44-4 on the season, should be revived to do what they do best - win by large margins.
BOTTOM LINE is - Golden State has won eight of nine in this series and five in a row at Washington, which comes in after dropping its sixth defeat in eight games on Monday, in a 114-98 loss at Oklahoma City. The Wizards have lost seven of nine at home.
3* GOLDEN STATE
Dr. Bob
Boston College (+24) over VIRGINIA
Virginia’s slow pace makes it tough for the Cavaliers to cover big numbers because there are fewer possessions to extend the lead. The Cavaliers also traditionally have a larger than normal drop off between their regular rotation and their bench players, who get more time in blowout games. Virginia is 55.4% in all games in 7 seasons under coach Tony Bennett but the Cavaliers are just 10-17 ATS as a favorite of more than 14 points, including 2-8 ATS against a team with a losing record. Boston College is obviously struggling and they’re without #2 scorer Jerome Robinson (worth about 1 point), but the line is fair (my ratings favor Virginia by 23½ points with Robinson out) and the Eagles apply to a 92-25-2 ATS situation and an 81-34-5 ATS situation that plays on big dogs that have lost 7 or more consecutive games. Virginia, meanwhile, applies to a negative 45-115-2 ATS situation that plays against big favorites off an upset win and I can certainly see the Cavaliers being a bit flat for this game after winning at Louisville and with a game at Pitt coming up. I’ll take Boston College in a 1-Star Best Bet at +23 points or more.
Note: This game was released to my subscribers early this morning when the line was +24. BC is still a Best Bet at +23 or more.
Opinion – Nebraska-Omaha (-4) over WESTERN ILLINOIS
Western Illinois started the season 5-0, including an opening game upset win at Wisconsin. However it’s been all down since, and the Leathernecks are currently riding an 11 game losing streak heading into this game and are just 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games. Nebraska Omaha, meanwhile, is 9-2 in their last 11 games and the Mavericks are 11-2 ATS in games played away from home this season, including 7-0 ATS as a favorite or pick. My ratings using all games this season favor Omaha by 4 points but Western Illinois isn’t nearly as good as they were those first few games when they couldn’t miss from outside (50.5% 3-point shooting in 6 November games but just 33.4% in 13 games since). My current ratings favor Omaha by 6½ points and I’ll lean with the Mavericks at -4 or less based on the line value.
Opinion - Miami (+4) over DALLAS
Miami is a much better team off a loss (37-27-2 ATS since the beginning of last season) than they are off a win (20-42-1 ATS) and I expect a good effort from the Heat after last night’s loss in Houston. I also think the Heat are underrated now that Goran Dragic is back and my ratings favor Dallas by just 2 points in this game even after factoring in the rest advantage. I don’t have quite enough value to make this a Best Bet but I’ll lean with Miami plus the points.
Jeffrey James
Utah Jazz -7
Utah is a tough place to play which is why the Jazz have covered 8 of their last 10 at home. They also own the Nuggets covering 8 of their last 9 against them. The big statistical edge goes to the Jazz as their defense gives up about 7 less points per game then Denver. Take the Jazz and lay the points here as the play of the day.