DUNKEL
San Antonio at Sacramento
The Spurs look to take advantage of a Sacramento team that is 1-9-1 ATS in its last 11 home games. San Antonio is the pick (-3 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Spurs favored by 9. Dunkel Pick: San Antonio (-3 1/2)
Game 701-702: New Jersey at Toronto
Dunkel Ratings: New Jersey 104.902; Toronto 121.345
Dunkel Line & Total: Toronto by 16 1/2; 207
Vegas Line & Total: Toronto by 10 1/2; 202 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Toronto (-10 1/2); Over
Game 703-704: LA Clippers at Atlanta
Dunkel Ratings: LA Clippers 109.410; Atlanta 125.888
Dunkel Line & Total: Atlanta by 16 1/2; 186
Vegas Line & Total: Atlanta by 9 1/2; 194 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-9 1/2); Under
Game 705-706: Chicago at Philadelphia
Dunkel Ratings: Chicago 121.359; Philadelphia 117.762
Dunkel Line & Total: Chicago by 3 1/2; 196
Vegas Line & Total: Philadelphia by 2; 193
Dunkel Pick: Chicago (+2); Over
Game 707-708: Washington at New York
Dunkel Ratings: Washington 112.215; New York 112.898
Dunkel Line & Total: New York by 1; 206
Vegas Line & Total: New York by 5 1/2; 203 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Washington (+5 1/2); Over
Game 709-710: Miami at Boston
Dunkel Ratings: Miami 118.015; Boston 121.424
Dunkel Line & Total: Boston by 3 1/2; 185
Vegas Line & Total: Boston by 6 1/2; 182 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Miami (+6 1/2); Over
Game 711-712: Oklahoma City at New Orleans
Dunkel Ratings: Oklahoma City 121.999; New Orleans 120.350
Dunkel Line & Total: Oklahoma City by 1 1/2; 196
Vegas Line & Total: Oklahoma City by 2; 192 1/2
Dunkel Pick: New Orleans (+2); Over
Game 713-714: Golden State at Dallas
Dunkel Ratings: Golden State 111.504; Dallas 126.145
Dunkel Line & Total: Dallas by 14 1/2; 214
Vegas Line & Total: Dallas by 12; 217
Dunkel Pick: Dallas (-12); Under
Game 715-716: Phoenix at Denver
Dunkel Ratings: Phoenix 116.491; Denver 127.298
Dunkel Line & Total: Denver by 11; 220
Vegas Line & Total: Denver by 7; 222 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Denver (-7); Under
Game 717-718: San Antonio at Sacramento
Dunkel Ratings: San Antonio 121.192; Sacramento 112.363
Dunkel Line & Total: San Antonio by 9; 200
Vegas Line & Total: San Antonio by 3 1/2; 197 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Antonio (-3 1/2); Over
Game 719-720: Portland at Utah
Dunkel Ratings: Portland 119.918; Utah 128.477
Dunkel Line & Total: Utah by 8 1/2; 195
Vegas Line & Total: Utah by 7 1/2; 197
Dunkel Pick: Utah (-7 1/2); Under
Game 721-722: Charlotte at LA Lakers
Dunkel Ratings: Charlotte 120.718; LA Lakers 125.696
Dunkel Line & Total: LA Lakers by 5; 190
Vegas Line & Total: LA Lakers by 9; 194
Dunkel Pick: Charlotte (+9); Under
South Florida at Georgetown
The Hoyas look to take advantage of a South Florida team that is 4-10 ATS in its last 14 games as a road underdog between 7 and 12 1/2 points. Georgetown is the pick (-12 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Hoyas favored by 19. Dunkel Pick: Georgetown (-12 1/2)
Game 723-724: Penn State at Ohio State
Dunkel Ratings: Penn State 59.699; Ohio State 75.933
Dunkel Line: Ohio State by 16
Vegas Line: Ohio State by 15
Dunkel Pick: Ohio State (-15)
Game 725-726: VCU at NC Wilmington
Dunkel Ratings: VCU 66.280; NC Wilmington 48.190
Dunkel Line: VCU by 18
Vegas Line: VCU by 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: VCU (-9 1/2)
Game 727-728: George Mason at Georgia State
Dunkel Ratings: George Mason 57.065; Georgia State 55.410
Dunkel Line: George Mason by 1 1/2
Vegas Line: Pick
Dunkel Pick: George Mason
Game 729-730: Pittsburgh at West Virginia
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh 70.274; West Virginia 75.925
Dunkel Line: West Virginia by 5 1/2
Vegas Line: West Virginia by 9
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (+9)
Game 731-732: Duquesne at Temple
Dunkel Ratings: Duquesne 53.631; Temple 70.492
Dunkel Line: Temple by 17
Vegas Line: Temple by 13
Dunkel Pick: Temple (-13)
Game 733-734: Xavier at Massachusetts
Dunkel Ratings: Xavier 71.489; Massachusetts 56.522
Dunkel Line: Xavier by 15
Vegas Line: Xavier by 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Xavier (-8 1/2)
Game 735-736: Richmond at St. Joseph's
Dunkel Ratings: Richmond 57.823; St. Joseph's 57.330
Dunkel Line: Even
Vegas Line: Richmond by 5
Dunkel Pick: St. Joseph's (+5)
Game 737-738: North Carolina State at Virginia
Dunkel Ratings: North Carolina State 69.382; Virginia 68.523
Dunkel Line: North Carolina State by 1
Vegas Line: Virginia by 6
Dunkel Pick: North Carolina State (+6)
Game 739-740: Arkansas at Georgia
Dunkel Ratings: Arkansas 59.196; Georgia 69.007
Dunkel Line: Georgia by 10
Vegas Line: Georgia by 4
Dunkel Pick: Georgia (-4)
Game 741-742: Illinois State at Indiana State
Dunkel Ratings: Illinois State 58.995; Indiana State 59.494
Dunkel Line: Indiana State by 1
Vegas Line: Pick
Dunkel Pick: Indiana State
Game 743-744: Northern Illinois at Akron
Dunkel Ratings: Northern Illinois 47.029; Akron 64.936
Dunkel Line: Akron by 18
Vegas Line: Akron by 13
Dunkel Pick: Akron (-13)
Game 745-746: South Florida at Georgetown
Dunkel Ratings: South Florida 59.133; Georgetown 77.969
Dunkel Line: Georgetown by 19
Vegas Line: Georgetown by 12 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Georgetown (-12 1/2)
Game 747-748: Hofstra at James Madison
Dunkel Ratings: Hofstra 56.895; James Madison 53.557
Dunkel Line: Hofstra by 3 1/2
Vegas Line: James Madison by 1
Dunkel Pick: Hofstra (+1)
Game 749-750: William & Mary at Old Dominion
Dunkel Ratings: William & Mary 58.823; Old Dominion 67.500
Dunkel Line: Old Dominion by 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Old Dominion by 11 1/2
Dunkel Pick: William & Mary (+11 1/2)
Game 751-752: DePaul at Marquette
Dunkel Ratings: DePaul 55.533; Marquette 71.790
Dunkel Line: Marquette by 16 1/2
Vegas Line: Marquette by 17 1/2
Dunkel Pick: DePaul (+17 12)
Game 753-754: George Washington at Charlotte
Dunkel Ratings: George Washington 56.228; Charlotte 65.137
Dunkel Line: Charlotte by 9
Vegas Line: Charlotte by 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Charlotte (-7 1/2)
Game 755-756: Iowa State at Baylor
Dunkel Ratings: Iowa State 62.126; Baylor 73.870
Dunkel Line: Baylor by 11 1/2
Vegas Line: Baylor by 11
Dunkel Pick: Baylor (-11)
Game 757-758: St. Bonaventure at St. Louis
Dunkel Ratings: St. Bonaventure 53.130; St. Louis 62.747
Dunkel Line: St. Louis by 9 1/2
Vegas Line: St. Louis by 6 1/2
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (-6 1/2)
Game 759-760: UAB at Memphis
Dunkel Ratings: UAB 64.100; Memphis 66.633
Dunkel Line: Memphis by 2 1/2
Vegas Line: Memphis by 7
Dunkel Pick: UAB (+7)
Game 761-762: Tulane at Rice
Dunkel Ratings: Tulane 53.039; Rice 51.129
Dunkel Line: Tulane by 2
Vegas Line: Rice by 3
Dunkel Pick: Tulane (+3)
Game 763-764: Marshall at Tulsa
Dunkel Ratings: Marshall 61.572; Tulsa 65.134
Dunkel Line: Tulsa by 3 1/2
Vegas Line: Tulsa by 8
Dunkel Pick: Marshall (+8)
Game 765-766: Wichita State at Northern Iowa
Dunkel Ratings: Wichita State 61.947; Northern Iowa 70.922
Dunkel Line: Northern Iowa by 9
Vegas Line: Northern Iowa by 6 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Northern Iowa (-6 1/2)
Game 767-768: Evansville at Creighton
Dunkel Ratings: Evansville 48.909; Creighton 62.829
Dunkel Line: Creighton by 14
Vegas Line: Creighton by 12 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Creighton (-12 1/2)
Game 769-770: Missouri State at Southern Illinois
Dunkel Ratings: Missouri State 57.920; Southern Illinois 59.943
Dunkel Line: Southern Illinois by 2
Vegas Line: Southern Illinois by 3 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Missouri State (+3 1/2)
Game 771-772: Mississippi State at Vanderbilt
Dunkel Ratings: Mississippi State 67.359; Vanderbilt 72.380
Dunkel Line: Vanderbilt by 5
Vegas Line: Vanderbilt by 6 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Mississippi State (+6 1/2)
Game 773-774: Colorado State at Utah
Dunkel Ratings: Colorado State 53.275; Utah 65.642
Dunkel Line: Utah by 12 1/2
Vegas Line: Utah by 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Utah (-9 1/2)
Game 775-776: Illinois at Iowa
Dunkel Ratings: Illinois 64.957; Iowa 65.490
Dunkel Line: Iowa by 1
Vegas Line: Illinois by 5
Dunkel Pick: Iowa (+5)
Game 777-778: Texas A&M at Missouri
Dunkel Ratings: Texas A&M 66.121; Missouri 75.788
Dunkel Line: Missouri by 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Missouri by 10
Dunkel Pick: Texas A&M (+10)
Game 779-780: Kansas at Colorado
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas 80.183; Colorado 63.299
Dunkel Line: Kansas by 17
Vegas Line: Kansas by 13 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Kansas (-13 1/2)
Game 781-782: UNLV at Wyoming
Dunkel Ratings: UNLV 64.695; Wyoming 57.403
Dunkel Line: UNLV by 7 1/2
Vegas Line: UNLV by 8
Dunkel Pick: Wyoming (+8)
Game 783-784: Houston at UTEP
Dunkel Ratings: Houston 63.531; UTEP 67.178
Dunkel Line: UTEP by 3 1/2
Vegas Line: UTEP by 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Houston (+7 1/2)
Game 785-786: Idaho at Utah State
Dunkel Ratings: Idaho 55.034; Utah State 69.419
Dunkel Line: Utah State by 14 1/2
Vegas Line: Utah State by 15 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Idaho (+15 1/2)
Game 787-788: Elon at Wofford
Dunkel Ratings: Elon 44.123; Wofford 60.507
Dunkel Line: Wofford by 16 1/2
Vegas Line: Wofford by 18
Dunkel Pick: Elon (+18)
NHL
Ottawa at Buffalo
The Sabres look to build on their 6-1 record in their last 7 home games. Buffalo is the pick (-135) according to Dunkel, which has the Sabres favored by 1/2 a goal. Dunkel Pick: Buffalo (-135)
Game 51-52: Ottawa at Buffalo
Dunkel Ratings: Ottawa 12.854; Buffalo 13.490
Dunkel Line & Total: Buffalo by 1/2; 6 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Buffalo (-135); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Buffalo (-135); Over
Game 53-54: St. Louis at Chicago
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis 10.968; Chicago 12.780
Dunkel Line & Total: Chicago by 2; 6 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Chicago (-255); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Chicago (-255); Over
Game 55-56: Carolina at Calgary
Dunkel Ratings: Carolina 11.487; Calgary 12.249
Dunkel Line & Total: Calgary by 1; 4 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Calgary (-160); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Calgary (-160); Under
Game 57-58: Philadelphia at Edmonton
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia 11.321; Edmonton 11.567
Dunkel Line & Total: Edmonton by 1/2; 4 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Philadelphia (-185); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Edmonton (+165); Under
Game 59-60: Detroit at Anaheim
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit 12.797; Anaheim 12.417
Dunkel Line & Total: Detroit by 1/2; 5
Vegas Line & Total: Anaheim (-130); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (+110); Under
SPORTS WAGERS
Chicago +1.15 over PHILADELPHIA
The Bulls can be excused for a lackluster performance last night after returning home from a grueling trip that saw them play seven teams from the West in the span of 11 days. They won the last five games of that trip and were off for three days prior to last night’s game so it’s no surprise they were lethargic. Now they’ll take the road again and should be a whole lot sharper after playing last night and after a great trip against some very tough competition. This is a giant step down in class for the Bulls. Meanwhile, the 76ers offer very little as the chalk. They were tooth and nails to beat the Nets in New Jersey on Sunday and they have only registered seven wins at home in 23 tries. The Bulls are superior in every way and no way do they come up lame again after that poor performance last night. Play: Chicago +1.15 (Risking 2 units).
Charlotte +9 over L.A. LAKERS
The worst thing about wagering against the Lakers, aside from their talent level is that if a player so much as breathes on Kobe a foul is called. However, the best part about wagering against the Lakers is that the line is always inflated and this is a prime example of that. The Lakers return home from an extremely tough trip that saw them play eight games in 11 nights. They played in New York and they played a big one in Boston on Sunday. They’ll now return home with no sense of urgency and there is very little chance of them being sharp for this one. We saw a very similar situation with the Bulls last night and although the Bulls aren’t the Lakers, the difficulty of this situation is almost exactly the same. As an eight-point choice last night the Bulls lost by eight to a slumping Clip Joint squad. What we all know is that the Bobcats are coming off a poor performance in Portland and that only enhances their focus for this one. They play tremendous defense, they’ll be completely jacked up and again, they catch the Lakers at the best possible time receiving close to double digits. Play: Charlotte +9 (Risking 2.06 units to win 2).
Carolina +1.65 over CALGARY
Are the Flames in panic mode? Yeah, they are and the players that have been there for a while must be shaking their heads in disbelief while the Rangers and Leafs are secretly killing themselves laughing. Ales Kotalik and Christopher Higgins? Two complete stiffs that nobody wanted and one of them, Kotalik, has a big contract. Kotalik will now suit up for his fourth team in two years and he still has 2½ years remaining on his 3M a year contract. After dumping Phaneuf and Sjostrom, the holdovers reacted with a lifeless and unemotional performance against Philly in which they had maybe two scoring chances and 18 shots on net. They might react with even less emotion here after they let go of Olli Jokinen for two huge maybe’s. Darryl Sutter is probably hoping that the last few days were merely a dream and that he’ll wake up soon. It also doesn’t help that the local media is ripping apart the deals and the holdovers hear all that stuff and begin to believe it too. This Flames team is in a bad state of mind indeed. Meanwhile, the Hurricanes are playing solid hockey and they play hard every game. However, the bottom line here is the great take-back against a team in complete turmoil, panic and disarray. Play: Carolina +1.65 (Risking 2 units).
EZWINNERS
Chicago Bulls +1.5
Chicago point guard Derrick Rose is playing well again and that has been the key to Chicago's recent success. Chicago has won five straight games on the road all as an underdog and they are 10-1 against the spread in their last 11 games as an underdog. The Sixers have not had much of a home court advantage as they are only 3-10 against the spread in their last 13 games as a home favorite and just 7-21 against the spread in their last 28 home games overall. The Bulls have been successful here in the past as they are 11-5 against the spread in the last 16 meetings in Philadelphia. Take the points.
Bryan Leonard
Wichita State at Northern Iowa
Revenge game for the Panthers who dropped their only conference game earlier at Wichita State. Northern Iowa is undefeated at home this year and they are facing a Shocker team that has already lost three times this season on the conference road. Northern Iowa owns a two game lead in the Missouri Valley Conference over Wichita State but this one is personal.
PLAY NORTHERN IOWA
Larry Ness
CHL +9 vs LAL
Kobe matched a season-high with 44 points and movied past Jerry West as the Lakers' all-time leading scorer on Monday but LA lost 95-93 at Memphis. It marked the end of the team's longest road trip of the season, one which lasted 12 days and included eight games. The Lakers went 5-3 on the trip and return home 37-12 overall, the NBA's second-best record (Cavs are 39-11). LA comfortably leads the Pacific Division (Suns trail by 8 1/2 games) and also leads the Nuggets by 3 1/2 games for the West's No. 1 seed. In LA's first game back home, the Lakers meet a team which is ending its own long road trip, the Charlotte Bobcats. This will be Charlotte's sixth game in 10 days. Larry Brown has worked wonders with this team, as the 24-23 Bobcats are poised for the franchise's first playoff appearance since entering the league in the 2004-05 season. Wallace (19.2-11.0) became the team's first-ever All Star and the acquisition of Jackson (21.2-5.0-3.6 in 38 games) has been HUGE! The team swapped centers with New Orleans in the off season (Okafor for Chandler) and even though Chandler has missed the last 20 games, the Bobcats have gone 13-7 in that stretch. Brown's teams always play defense and this one is no different, holding opponents to 93.9 PPG (3rd-best in the league). The Lakers are all too familiar, led by Kobe (28.3-5.3-4.7) plus a deep and talented group starring Gasol (17.2-10.9), Bynum (15.4-8.3), Artest (11.4-4.6-3.1) and Odom (9.5-9.8-3.7). The Bobcats are just 6-18 on the road but a more than respectable 14-10 ATS, while the Lakers are 23-3 SU at home but just 13-12-1 ATS. Phil Jackson needs one victory to move past Pat Riley as the Lakers' all-time winningest coach with 534. He'll probably get that win but I'm taking the points.
Tony George
Golden State +12
I would not lay 12 points with Dallas tonight, or any night the way they are playing. Don Nelson loves to beat his old team and already has done it this year as double digit home dog. Dallas cannot close a game to save their life, and the coaching, as I have stated all year, is deplorable for the Mavs. They put the wrong people on the floor at cruch time and it has cost them game after game, Phoenix last week on TNT, the Jazz on Monday, the list goes on and on. Golden State can score and Dallas plays little defense. This has backdoor cover written all over it for the Warriors, grab the points.
Lenny Del Genio
PHI -1.5 vs CHI
The Sixers have struggled mightily when laying points this season (5-13 ATS), particularly here at home where they've gone 4-10 vs. the number. However, tonight's game vs. Chicago offers us and them an excellent opportunity. Chicago played last night at home, losing to the Clippers outright, 90-82. The Bulls are just 3-7 ATS when playing on back to back days this season and are 1-4 ATS coming off a SU loss as a favorite. Allen Iverson may not play tonight for Philly, which would be an added benefit. Chicago has long been a lousy road team, going 9-15 SU and that's with five straight wins. Take Philadelphia.
GoodFella
MIA +6 vs BOS
This is the 3rd meeting between these two clubs this season--as Boston has won both games and BOTH were AT Miami--a (92-85) win as 4 pt favs back on Nov. 29th & a (112-106) Overtime win as 1 pt favs on Jan. 6th. So CLEARLY Miami will be out to atone those two HOME losses and give Boston all they can handle tonight. BOTH TEAMS may be missing key players tonight--as the HEAT have both O'Neal and Haslem who are questionable & BOSTON has Pierce as doubtful with his injured foot. Boston snapped its 3 game losing streak with a win AT Washington on Monday (99-88) as 5.5 pt favs--but I'm still NOT sold on this Celtics thus far & I believe is a real good spot for the Heat to come in and give em all they can handle. Miami is coming in just (1-4 SU & ATS L/5) games & are off back to back double digit losses to the Bucks--including a 16 pt blowout HOME loss to them on Monday. This is Miami's 1st game of their 3 game roadie--which has them playing AT Cleveland tomorrow night & they conclude the trip on Saturday AT Chicago. Miami is (10-5 ATS L/15) coming off a double-digit HOME loss & Boston is just (13-8 SU) at HOME this season--& they are just (3-12 ATS L/15) HOME GAMES coming into tonight & (2-6-1 ATS L/9) games playing on 1 day of rest. I fully expect Miami to give Boston ALL they can handle tonight--as they not only have in-season DOUBLE Revenge going tonight (2 HOME losses too)--I'm also just not sold on this seasons Boston club--as they have some internal drama going on and they have had to deal with several key injuries most of the season. I really see the Heat as LIVE DOGS who can take this game outright. Grab the points with the Heat tonight guys.
King Creole
North Carolina St. +5.5 vs Virginia
You're off a H-U-G-E upset road win against the mighty North Carolina Tarheels. You wanna talk letdown? You got it!
0-4 ATS: All ACC favorites of < 12 points off a SU road UNDERDOG win against North Carolina (Virginia).... when taking on an opponent off a SUATS loss (NC STATE).
The WOLFPACK already lost to Virginia this season, so they come in with same-season REVENGE....
8-2 ATS this year: All Conference Underdogs of 8 < points playing with 'SSR1" (Same-season SINGLE Revenge). These teams are 6-1 ATS vs any opponent off a SU win (like Virginia).
ROCKETMAN
Oklahoma City @ New Orleans
Play: New Orleans +2
New Orleans is 16-6 SU at home this year. New Orleans is 8-0 SU overall vs Oklahoma City the past 3 years including 4-0 SU at home. Thunder are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 Wednesday games. Hornets are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as an underdog. Hornets are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a SU loss. Hornets are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as an underdog of 0.5-4.5. Hornets are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 vs. NBA Northwest. Hornets are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 Wednesday games. Hornets are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 vs. Western Conference. Hornets are 22-6 ATS in their last 28 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Hornets are 14-4 ATS in their last 18 games vs. a team with a winning SU record. Hornets are 16-5 ATS in their last 21 games as a home underdog. Hornets are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games following a ATS loss. Hornets are 20-8-1 ATS in their last 29 games as a home underdog of 0.5-4.5. We'll recommend a small play on New Orleans tonight!
Matt Rivers
George Mason at Georgia State.
I have backed Georgia State a few times this season because I like them a lot when they are a decent sized dog. Rod Barnes is a former Ole Miss coach that is pretty good for this program and has his guys fighting until the end. But this price is a bit too cheap on Jim Larranaga’s red hot Patriots.
I definitely do realize that Mason is a young team that is not close to being as rock solid as previous seasons, including the squad that advanced to the Final Four, but these guys are confident in this seven game winning streak making me hard pressed to see them actually lose today in Atlanta, which pretty much means a non-cover.
Georgia State did lose by only three in the first meeting and I do not expect a blowout at all today but Mason has been getting it done in the end unlike the 9-14 Panthers who are only 3-8 in the Colonial.
I do believe that Mason has overachieved a bit too much at 10-1 in-conference and are due for an egg but until that happens this price is too cheap to not make a small play. If this is the so-called “trap game”, as it does seem a bit too easy and I fell for it, then so be it. I just think that the visitors prevail more times than they don’t and therefore are a small bargain at this near pick-‘em price
Pick: George Mason -1
John Ryan
Va Commonwealth vs. NC Wilmington
Play: NC Wilmington +9.5
3* graded play on NC-Wilmington as they host VCU set to start 7:00 EST in Colonial Athletic Conference action. VCU is solid team, but with 4 conference losses will more than likely be heading to the NIT. NC-Wilmington is heading to building for next season and can play lose and free. Point is that VCU players know they are far superior to those at NC-Wilmington and the chances for a letdown are significant. Just this past Saturday we had a game very similar in scope to this one. In that game DePaul, a 16 point dog led for the majority of the game over Syracuse. Our proprietary sports handicapping model shows a high probability that NC-Wilmington will lose this game by 8 or fewer points. The letdown factor is also magnified by the situation VCU enters this game. Note that VCU is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) in road games after having won 3 of their last 4 games over the last 2 seasons. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 111-59 ATS for 65% winners since 2004. Play on dogs of 10 or more points off an upset loss as a favorite facing an opponent off a home win. NC-Wilmington is off an embarrassing loss losing as a 7.5 point favorite to Towson by the score of 58-53. VCU is off a 78-62 win over Georgia State, but failed to cover a 17 point spread. We believe that NC-Wilmington will play hard and will be strongly motivated to win this game. Take NC-Wilmington.
Jimmy Boyd
1 Unit on Bobcats/Lakers UNDER 194
The Lakers are finally home after a long road-trip, but I don't expect them to be fully recovered yet tonight. LA clearly wore down in its last few games of the trip and we saw it play to the Under in 3 straight games as a result. Charlotte is a tired team as well with this being its 5th straight road contest. Both of these scenarios are critical here as we find that plays on any team, the Lakers in this case, which have played 9 or more games in 14 days, against an opponent playing its 3rd road game in 5 days, are 49-18 to the Under dating back to 1996. We'll take the Under here 1 Unit.
Black Widow
1* on Iowa State +11
Iowa State should not be catching double-digit points at Baylor Wednesday. Baylor is 0-11 ATS (-12.1 Units) in home games versus excellent teams - shooting >=45% with a defense of <=42% over the last 3 seasons. The Bears are 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) in home games vs. teams who are called for 3+ less fouls/game than their opponents over the last 3 seasons. ISU plays the game the right way, and with their style they have the potential to beat any team in the Big 12 on any given night. Baylor is certainly riding high after their 80-77 win at Texas last time out, so this is obviously a huge letdown spot for the Bears. Take Iowa State and the points.
Jack Jones
San Antonio Spurs vs. Sacramento Kings
Play: Sacramento Kings +4
The Kings have been a solid home team this year so I'll take the points as they host a Spurs team that is just 8-9 on the road. Sacramento is scoring 105.6 ppg at home against teams who allow 100.2 ppg. The Spurs on the other hand are scoring just 96.2 ppg on the road against teams who give up 100.2. You have to like the Kings ability to outscore the Spurs with those kinds of numbers supporting them.
As backing our play is a solid system that says to play on home underdogs with two straight losses vs. opponent when that opponent is coming off an upset loss by 10 points or more as a home favorite.
This system is 53-24 (69%) since 1996.