Jeff Alexander
1 Unit on Golden State Warriors +12
I know the Warriors were just blown out last night, but it's hard to ask Dallas to lay this many points when they are only winning by an average of 1.3 points at home this season. The Mavs have been constantly overvalued at home this season where they are only 5-17 ATS. In fact, the Mavericks are 0-11 ATS in their last 11 home games vs. a team with a losing road record and 3-11 ATS in their last 14 games as a favorite of 11.0 or greater. We'll take the points for 1 unit.
Scott Delaney
San Antonio at Sacramento
These are one of those times you benefit from a losing skid. The Spurs have battled through some tough times, and because of that and them being on the road, we’re getting a value number in this game tonight. This is exactly what you would call a sharp play, as the Spurs are giving up a low number strictly because they’ve been playing bad.
But with good teams like San Antonio, you hope for games like this.
The Spurs have won seven straight and 16 of their last 18 against Sacramento, including seven of their last eight road games in the series. That doesn’t necessarily bode well for a Sacramento team that has lost 15 of 17 overall, and that has lost seven of its last 10 at Arco Arena after winning 10 of their first 13 there.
2♦ SAN ANTONIO SPURS
Tony Weston
One more point and it’s a win. Instead, Villanova fails to cover and is done in by the hook. Just brutal.
But that’s not happening tonight as I’m taking Vanderbilt at home against visiting Mississippi State.
Vandy comes into this game having covered in 7 of its last 9 games and is 4-1 ATS its last 5 games at home.
For the season the Commodores are 5-3 ATS at home where they are outscoring opponents by more than 21 points per game (85.2-64.8).
The Bulldogs, on the other hand come into this game having failed to cover in 4 of their last 5 games and are just 1-3 ATS their last 4 roadies.
Tonight, Mississippi State will struggle again on the road as Vandy continues to roll.
3♦ VANDERBILT
Dominic Fazzini
Oklahoma City -1 at NEW ORLEANS
Bagged another winner with my complimentary selection Tuesday as the Magic brought an end to the Bucks' 8-0 ATS run. Sometimes you have to go against the grain to find a victory, and that's one of the reasons I'm on a 65-46-4 roll!
I don't know if I'm upsetting the apple cart with today's play, but I do know that the results are going to be positive as I take the Thunder to get a road win in the Big Easy.
Even if Hornets point guard Chris Paul was playing tonight, I don't know if New Orleans could get past Oklahoma City. But with Paul out of the lineup, I really love the Thunder in this spot.
Rising superstar Kevin Durant just keeps getting better and better, and he's averaging 36 points and shooting 63.8 percent during Oklahoma City's current three-game winning streak. And he's getting plenty of help from guard Russell Westbrook and forward Jeff Green.
That trio could lead the Thunder for years to come and could help the team develop into a championship-caliber club, and Oklahoma City is a respectable 12-11 on the road this season.
The Thunder are on ATS runs of 7-3 overall, 5-1 on the road, 8-3-1 as a road favorite of up to 4 1/2 points and 4-0 on the second leg of a back-to-back. New Orleans, however, is 0-4 ATS in its last four home games. Take Oklahoma City to get the job done tonight as the amazing Durant, who has scored at least 25 points in 22 straight games, leads the way.
4♦ OKLAHOMA CITY
Stephen Nover
Oklahoma City at NEW ORLEANS +2
New Orleans is going to be up for this home game after losing its past two at New Orleans Arena.
The Hornets are anxious to show they are still tough at home even without star point guard Chris Paul.
The Hornets have won 16 of their 22 home contests. They're in a good situational spot to beat the Thunder.
Oklahoma City has been home for its past four games. The Thunder are off an impressive 106-99 victory against Atlanta on Tuesday night.
Darren Collison has put up solid numbers replacing Paul. Backcourt mate Marcus Thornton is averaging 19.2 points in his last five games since moving into the starting lineup.
The Hornets have lost to the Suns and to the Bulls in overtime during their past two home games. The Hornets will be highly motivated for this matchup.
The Thunder is much improved. Kevin Durant has reached superstar status. But Oklahoma City isn't good enough yet to beat a motivated team with a strong home-court while being in a flat spot.
2♦ HORNETS
Chris Jordan
Oklahoma City -2 at NEW ORLEANS
The Thunder currently boast the No. 8 seed in the Western Conference game, as they’re in front of New Orleans by one game. And even though this is in the Big Easy, the Hornets aren’t going to find this simple one bit. With point guard Chris Paul out indefinitely, the Thunder look like they’re in the perfect spot to earn their first win over New Orleans in more than three years.
The Hornets have split their last six games and dropped three of four at home. And sans Paul, they’re going to find it awfully difficult to produce any offense. He had 14 points and 13 assists in a 95-92 win on Jan. 6, and had averaged 23.7 points and 12.7 assists in the previous three meetings.
Tonight the star of the show will be Kevin Durant, who had 33 points and 11 rebounds in leading the Thunder to their third straight win, 106-99 over Atlanta on Tuesday, has arguably been the hottest player in the league of late. He became the first player since Allen Iverson nine seasons ago to score at least 25 in 22 consecutive games. Durant is averaging 29.7 points and 7.3 rebounds, but is scoring 36.0 points and shooting 63.8 percent over the last three games. He is averaging 26.0 points in his career against the Hornets
1♦ THUNDER
Stephen Nover
Kansas -14 at COLORADO
Being voted No. 1 has been a jinx for Texas and Kentucky. Don't look for Kansas, though, to lose right after being selected as the top team in the nation.
The top-ranked Jayhawks won't overlook Colorado, especially with the game slated for national television on ESPN2. The Jayhawks know the pressure of being No. 1 having owned the top spot for the first eight weeks of the season.
Colorado has lost 33 straight on the road, but is 10-1 in Boulder. That's sure to get Kansas' attention.
The Buffaloes have been outrebounded in their last 12 games. They were outrebounded by 26 boards in their last game, a 64-63 loss to Iowa State.
Kansas certainly can take advantage of this weakness with Cole Aldrich, who is averaging 11.6 points, 10.3 rebounds and 3.6 blocks. Colorado's lack of size underneath is compounded by a finger injury that has limited the effectiveness of center Shane Harris-Tunks.
Kansas has never lost to Colorado during 12 games in the Bill Self era. In fact, the Jayhawks have virtually owned the Buffaloes beating them 40 of the past 41 times.
The Jayhawks are averaging 84.7 points per game. Colorado is surrendering nearly 72 points a game.
The Buffaloes also are banged-up. In addition to Harris-Tunks being less than 100 percent healthy, star freshman guard Alec Burks has a sprained knee. He was hurt during the opening minutes of the Buffaloes' loss to Iowa State on Saturday and didn't return.
Burks had been the only freshman in the country to score in double figures every game until he was hurt. He's averaging 16.2 points per game. Forward Marcus Relphorde also suffered a hip injury in the loss to the Cyclones.
"He has a great desire to play," Colorado coach Jeff Bzdelik said when asked if Burks would play against the Jayhawks. "But we have to err on the side of caution."
1♦ KANSAS
Karl Garrett
Penn State at OHIO STATE -15
Gotta lay the wood with the Buckeyes as they play host to a Nittany Lions team that has thrown the stick in reverse.
Penn State has lost 9 in a row heading into Columbus tonight, and the points haven't been of much help of late either, as the Lions have failed 6 of their last 8 against the line.
Ohio State has been rewarding their backers at home, as the Buckeyes are a perfect 13-0 straight up on their home hardwood, and a solid 9-4 against the spread in those home dates.
The Bucks have had no issue dispatching the Nittany's the last couple of seasons, rolling a perfect 10-for-10 straight up, while covering the last pair, and 4 of the last 7 overall.
It's a big number for sure, but I see no reason to think Penn State is going to stay close this whole game.
20 point final eventually is what I see.
Take the Buckeyes.
3♦ OHIO STATE
Arkansas at GEORGIA -4
Good spot for Georgia to right their ship so to speak, as the Bulldogs have dropped their last pair, and 5 of their last 6, but they do have the benefit of playing at home for this one, and UGa is 8-2 straight up on their home floor, and 6-3 against the spread in their lined home dates.
Arkansas comes in off back-to-back upset wins over Miss State, and Ole Miss, but they are still just 2-4 against the spread on the road this year, and they have lost 3 of the last 4 in this series both straight up and against the spread.
The favorite in this series is 9-3 against the spread the last 12 meetings as well.
I expect Georgia to catch Arkansas in a "flat" spot in this game, and I look for Mark Fox' team to up their 8-2 home mark with another win and cover.
Lay the small chalk with the Bulldogs as they cool off the Hogs.
4♦ GEORGIA
Drew Gordon
Oklahoma City at NEW ORLEANS +2
51-32-3 roll L85 Free Plays (19-9 L28)! For today's complimentary play, we're looking at the Thunder/Hornets match up.
Bettors are loving the Thunder in this spot, but the guys in Vegas are simply playing on the public's perception. The public is convinced the Hornets can't cover this game without Chris Paul, but I couldn't disagree more.
First, overreacting to an injury is the surest way to blow your bankroll. Vegas adjusts for injuries, and what looks like an attractive line is many times a trap in waiting. Can New Orleans win without Paul? Absolutely, especially in the short-term, and one of the biggest reasons is their young, but talented rookie Darren Collison.
Did you see Collison's last game? 16 points and 14 assists in 36 minutes... Remind you of another point guard on this team? I'm not saying he's going to produce like that every night, but given the oppurtunity, Collison CAN fill in for Paul in the short-term. He'll be up against his college teammate in this one, so I expect 100% focus from Collison tonight.
While I'll admit the Thunder have looked good, their 3 straight wins all came at home. Their offense is consistently inconsistent in hostile territory and while they're 16-7 ATS away, there's still plenty of trends supporting the Hornets in this one. New Orleans is 4-0 in their L4 as underdogs, 5-1 ATS off a SU loss, AND 7-3 ATS without Paul in the lineup! So if you want trends, I got plenty of them supporting the home team here.
Bottom line, classic spot where the public gets caught fading a team with a superstar injury. Collison had proven almost as effective, and I believe the rest of the Hornets will pick up the slack along the way (at least short-term). In the end, New Orleans circles the wagons at home Wednesday night!
Take New Orleans plus the points over Oklahoma City in this NBA match up.
2♦ NEW ORLEANS
Evansville at CREIGHTON -12'
Normally I'd be wary of betting against a team on such a protracted losing streak, because Vegas knows the public is fading the Purple Aces and has adjusted the lines accordingly. However, there's something very different about this particular match up, and that's the fact the public is actually LINING UP to ride Evansville in this contest. Apparently, the public believes the Blue Jays aren't good enough to cover the big number, but I disagree.
Yes, the Blue Jays are just 6-12 ATS on the season, and have burned through a lot of their backers money, but that doesn't change my opinion. You see, the Blue Jays are hugely popular mid-major, and Vegas has cleaned out there backers who are looking for that Creighton "magic" of past years. But in this match up, everyone is expecting Creighton to fail, and therefore, I'm seeing plenty of value fading the public here.
So how does Creighton do it? By taking advantage of their edges on both sides of the court. Shutting down a Purple Aces offense that averages 62 ppg on just 40% shooting in hostile territory, while building off their consistently solid effort at home (9-1 SU & 3-3 ATS in Omaha). Creighton's edge on the glass is also key, as Evansville is having a real problem rebounding (F Haarsma is the only one contributing consistently). In the end, the Jays circle the wagons and get the solid home win and cover Wednesday.
Take Creighton over Evansville in this college hoops match up.
1♦ CREIGHTON
Bobby Maxwell
Kansas at COLORADO +13'
I'm 41-14-1 with my last 56 FREE plays and tonight I'm delivereng a winner on the college court as I grab the points with Colorado as they host Kansas in Big 12 actioin.
No, I don’t think we’ll see the outright upset for the Buffs tonight, but this is just way too many points to pass up with a team that plays well at home and will be motivated against the nation’s top-ranked squad. Colorado and the points is the play tonight.
The Buffaloes are 10-1 at home this season with the only loss being an 87-81 loss to Kansas State, pushing as a six-point home dog. The Buffs have already beaten the likes of Baylor, Miami of Ohio, and Nebraska on the home court.
Colorado scores 79.6 points a game at home and shoots it at a 52.2 percent clip, including a huge 42.8 percent from the three-point line. If they can score against the Jayhawks tonight, this one is going to be an easy cover.
Kansas struggled at Kansas State on Saturday, winning 81-79 in OT, failing as a 3 ½-point favorite. They are just 2-5-1 ATS in their last eight roadies.
Colorado is 3-1 ATS in the last four meetings with the Jayhawks, including a thriller last year in Kansas when the Buffs lost 66-61 as a 22-point underdog. Notice the under is 8-0 in the last eight matchups between these two in Colorado. If the total stays low, good chance for the team grabbing big points to cover.
The Buffs are on ATS runs of 34-16-1 in Big 12 action, 5-2-1 at home and 5-1-1 overall. Too many points to pass up, play Colorado.
4♦ COLORADO
Bobby Maxwell
UNLV -5' at WYOMING
My second FREE play on the college hardwood tonight comes with UNLV as the Rebels travel to Wymoning to take on the Cowboys in a Mountain West contest.
After winning four straight and eight of nine against Wyoming, the Cowboys got some revenge at the end of last season, beating UNLV 77-68 at home as a seven-point home pup. That’s not happening this year!
UNLV has righted the ship from its little early-January swoon it was in, winning three straight, including two in hostile environments at Colorado State and TCU, covering in both as a six-point favorite. In fact, the Rebels have won each of their last three road games and they are 6-0 ATS in their last six true road contests.
Such a deep roster for the Rebels, it’s rare to see any of them go over 30 minutes of playing time in a game. So the altitude in Laramie won’t be a factor with a well-rested squad.
Wyoming has been a train wreck this season, losing four of their last five, and already dropping Mountain West home games to New Mexico and Colorado State.
UNLV is 9-4 ATS in the last 13 series clashes, including 5-2 in Wyoming. The Rebels are also on positive ATS runs of 8-3 overall, 5-2 in MWC action, 6-0 on Wednesdays and 4-0 coming off a non-cover. Look for the Rebels to dominate this one with defense. Lay the chalk and play the Rebels.
2♦ UNLV
Brett Atkins
Tonight's free play comes from the NBA hardwood as I go with the Jazz on their home court and lay the chalk with the Blazers coming to town.
Home team domination. That’s what Utah brings to tonight’s contest with the Blazers. The Jazz are 4-0 SU and ATS in the last four meetings with Portland when they meet in Salt Lake City. And this Utah team is proving it can win at home with anybody in the starting lineup.
They beat Sacramento on Friday 101-94 without the services of either star Deron Williams or Carlos Boozer. Monday they blew up Dallas in Utah, 104-92 as a four-point favorite, getting 25 points and nine boards from Paul Milsap and 18 points and 15 assists from Williams as he returned to the lineup.
Now the Jazz face a Portland team without star guard Brandon Roy, and I don’t see Andre Miller going for 50-plus again tonight like he did in Dallas on Saturday.
Utah is getting great play from all the supporting cast right now and that’s huge with Boozer out.
The home team is 8-1 ATS in the last nine meetings between these two and the favorite has cashed in eight straight series clashes. Utah is on ATS runs of 10-1-2 overall, 6-1-1 at home, 6-1 when they get a day off and 7-1-1 as a favorite. These guys are outstanding on the home court. Lay the chalk and go with the Jazz tonight.
4♦ UTAH
Jay McNeil
Well, my five-game winning streak with my free plays came to an end Tuesday as Air Force couldn't score in the first half against San Diego State and couldn't defend in the second. No worries, though, as I'll be sure to rebound tonight with a winner as I return to the Mountain West Conference.
UNLV is playing some good ball right now, winning five of its last six and covering in five of its last seven.
And now the Rebels travel to Laramie to play a Wyoming team that already has lost leading scorer Afam Muojeke for the season and now has its second-leading scorer, center Adam Waddell, questionable with a sprained ankle after he missed the Cowboys' game on Saturday.
Without Waddell, who averages 10.8 points and 6.4 rebounds, Wyoming lost 70-63 at Air Force to a Falcons team that entered the game 0-6 in conference play.
Rebels guard Tre'Von Willis is making a push for Mountain West Player of the Year, averaging 22.6 ppg in conference play, and forward Chace Stanback is averaging 16 ppg over his last six games.
UNLV is allowing just 65.7 ppg and should have no trouble containing Wyoming, especially if Waddell doesn't play.
The Rebels are 7-1 on the road this season, losing only at No. 12 BYU by four points, and they are on ATS runs of 6-0 on the road and 4-0 as a road favorite. They are also 5-2 ATS in their last seven games at Wyoming. Take UNLV to cover the points tonight and win by double digits.
4♦ UNLV
Charley Sutton
It was close, but Mississippi keeps it close enough to cash in with our solid Comp Play winner last night.
I’m handing you another college hoops Comp Play winner tonight as I’m taking Kansas on the road at Colorado in a Big XII showdown of sorts.
Finally sitting in the No. 1 spot the Jayhawks have been cruising this season, having gone 20-1 SU and coming into tonight riding a 6-game SU winning streak.
Now they battle a Colorado team that’s lost 4 of its last 5 games SU and has had its share of struggles against the Jayhawks.
In their last 6 meetings in Colorado the Buffaloes have gone 1-5 ATS. Making things worse for Colorado, in this series the road team has covered in 5 of their last 6 matchups.
Keep in mind, too, Kansas has gone 20-7-2 ATS its last 29 games against the Big XII and is 35-17-2 ATS its last 54 games overall and is 33-16-2 ATS its last 51 games when installed as a favorite.
Tonight, the favored Jayhawks will cash in again in Colorado.
3 ♦ KANSAS
Joel Tyson
Tuesday comp play winner on Orlando easy over Milwaukee.
Gonna grab the generous points with the Iron Dukes this Wednesday as they visit Philly for a date with the Top-20 Owls of Temple.
True, Temple has won the last 3 and 8 of the last 10 series meetings straight up, but 4 of the last 5 meetings have been decided by 6 points or less.
Duquesne has rallied for wins in 2 of their last 3, and they have been able to play a number of teams very close this season, taking Pitt, St. Louis, and Dayton to overtime this year.
Owls get the win, Dukes get the cover.
Take the double-digits.
3♦ DUQUESNE