Joe Gavazzi
George Washington -3½
This looks like the spot I've been waiting for to fade Duquesne. Under first year HC Ferry (LIU-Brooklyn), the Iron Dukes have melted down as the season has progressed. They enter on a run of 0-9 SU, in which every defeat has been by 7 or more points. In that span, they have allowed an average of 79 PPG on the defensive end. It also includes an 0-3 SUATS mark on this floor, as A10 home dog. In short, it would appear as if they have tossed the towel. Under second year HC Lonergan, the Colonials are at the other end of the spectrum. They have pulled even at 10-10 SU for the year, with a point spread mark of 10-3 ATS since late November. Argentinian import Garino has emerged as an offensive weapon to give the Colonials more balanced scoring. As a result, in the L4 games they have averaged 75 PPG, a significant improvement over their 66 PPG average for the year. Allowing just 63 PPG on 41% defense, we clearly have the superior defense, and momentum to steal this road win against the fading Duquesne team.
Jeff Scott Sports
4 UNIT PLAY
Kansas/ TCU Over 116.5: Gotta feel that we can get at least 120 points out of these teams. The Jayhawks offense has been struggling of late, but they did put up 80 points in their last game and TCU comes in having allowed 68.6 ppg on 48% shooting in their last 5 games. For the year Kansas still has averaged 74.2 ppg on 47.8% shooting. The Kansas defense has been stellar all year but they have allowed 54 points or more in each of their last 5 games and TCU does average 55.2 ppg at home. 54 points from TCU would be awesome here cause I don't see the Jayhawks being held below 67 points. I actually feel that Kansas will hit the 70 point mark in this one. Their offense has been sputtering but the should get back on track vs a TCU defense that has been sputtering themselves of late. Getting 70+ from Kansas and 50+ plus from TCU gives us a solid Over play here.
3 UNIT PLAYS
Bowling Green/ Northern Illinois Over 113: NIU's last 5 games have averaged just 114.8 ppg, but that is mostly due to to the fact that one of those games put up just 67 points. take out that game and 4 of their last 5 games have averaged 126.3 ppg, with 3 of their last 4 games putting up 130+ points. Let's also note that just 2 of the Huskies last 14 games have scored less than 121 points. The Huskies have had problems scoring this year, but Bowling Green comes in allowing 71 ppg on the road, so they should get some points tonight. Falcon road games have averaged 134.5 ppg, with just 1 of their road games putting up less than 123 points. Bowling Green averages 63.5 ppg on the road and NIU allows 62.8 ppg at home, so the Falcons should put up 60+ in this one. I really expect this one in the 120's.
UNLV -8 over FRESNO STATE: The Rebels are clearly the better team here and we are getting them of a loss, which is good. We also get them playing a struggling Fresno State squad that has lost 4 in a row, with the last 2 being by DD. UNLV comes in 39th in the nation in offensive efficiency, while the Bulldogs is 243rd in that category. Defensively Nevada is not that bad as they allow just 61.5 ppg and are 76th in defensive efficiency, but UNLV ranks a bit better in defensive efficiency, checking in at 31st. Im just not sure that the Bulldogs will be able to score enough points to keep this one close. The Rebels average 69.2 ppg on the road, while Nevada has averaged just 55.8 ppg in their last 6 games overall. I feel that coming off a loss we will get a much more focused UNLV squad, as they really need to come up with a big easy win to get some confidence back. I look for them to win by about 15 points.
Marquette -3.5 Over SOUTH FLORIDA: The Golden Eagles are clearly the better team here and coming off a 19 point loss to Louisville you can bet they will be fully focused for this one. South Florida is struggling right now as they have lost 4 in a row and that includes a 13 point road loss to Marquette a few days ago. The Bulls have averaged 61.3 ppg overall, but just 53 ppg (regulation) in their Big East games this year and they have been outscored by nearly 9 ppg in Big East play this year. This is a huge game for the Golden Eagles and I look for them to bounce back after the 19 point loss with a big DD win in this one. South Florida just doesn’t have enough offense to stay in this game.
Cincinnati/ Providence Over 132: The Bearcats do play some solid defense as hey have allowed just 58.8 ppg on the year, but they do hallow 61 ppg on the road and Providence puts up 70.6 ppg at home. Providence has allowed just 61.4 pg at home overall, but in the Big East that number jumps to 71.6 ppg allowed at home. Cincinnati averages a solid 72.3 ppg overall and 66.6 ppg on the road. THey should be good for at least 70 off of this struggling Providence defense. Neither team plays at a slow pace and both offenses are in the top 71 in offensive efficiency. We should get around 140 points in this one.
Pass NBA
SPORTS WAGERS
Memphis -2 over ATLANTA
The Grizzlies are in a bit of a funk with three losses in their past five including a disturbing home loss to the Suns last night. However, prior to last night they had not played since Friday and it was just their second game since the Rudy Gay trade. Some adjustment and practice time was put to use last night and we're confident that the Grizz will be much better tonight against a Hawks team that appears to be declining.
Atlanta’s lone win in past four games was against the Raptors on the night the Raps unloaded Jose Calderon and Ed Davis. Atlanta won by a single point against the undermanned and somewhat stunned Raptors. Atlanta's internal issues could have these players on edge as rumours surrounding potential trades continue to swirl. For the Grizzlies, that ship has sailed and they can get back to playing the determined, methodical and hard-nosed brand of basketball that has made them so difficult to beat. The role reversal should be beneficial to us.
Ross Benjamin
Saint Louis vs. Fordham
Play: Over
Any road team that averages 67 to 74 points per game and led by 5 points or more at the half of their last 3 games, versus an opponent that allows 74 to 78 points per game has seen 31 of those 40 games (77.5%) go over the total. Play on this game to go over the total.
Brandon Lee
Utah Jazz -5½
The Bucks let one get away from them last night in a 104-112 loss at Denver. I don't see them bouncing back with a better performance tonight against the Jazz. Playing back-to-back road games is extremely difficult, especially when those two games are against the Nuggets and Jazz. Denver and Utah are two of the toughest places to play in the NBA. Milwaukee simply won't have anything left in the tank tonight.
Utah is an impressive 18-5 at home and should have no trouble winning by at least 6 points. The Jazz are 12-3 ATS over their last 15 home games against teams from the Eastern Conference, while the Bucks are a miserable 4-16 ATS over their last 20 games vs the Northwest division. Lay the Points!
Jeff Alexander
Washington Wizards +4½
The Wizards are showing value in the underdog role at home where they have won 6 of 7 against the likes of the Thunder, Bulls and Clippers. The Knicks haven't been the same team on the road where they are 4-5 in their last 9 with only one of these wins coming by more than 4 points. The Wizards are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 games. Bet Washington.
Dave Price
Iowa +9
This is likely Iowa's last chance to pick up a quality road win in conference play that would impress the NCAA selection committee. The Hawkeyes still have road dates with Penn State and Nebraska but winning those won't impress anyone. They also have a road game with Indiana but will have a very tough time getting that one. Iowa has had Wisconsin's number of late. The Hawkeyes have won 3 in a row against Wisconsin as they have been successful in forcing the Badgers to play faster than they would like. I expect them to successfully control the tempo again here in a game they need desperately. Iowa is 7-1 ATS when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 80%) this season while Wisconsin is 1-8 ATS when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 80%) this season. Also, the Badgers are just 1-8 ATS when out for revenge for an upset loss to an opponent the last 3 seasons. Wisconsin likely gets it done tonight, but it won't be easy. Take the points.
John Martin
Golden State Warriors +11
After getting embarrassed 109-140 at Houston last night, I look for the Golden State Warriors to come back with a chip on their shoulder Wednesday. They'll take it out on Oklahoma City and easily stay within this double-digit spread, possibly pulling off the upset. These teams have split two meetings this season with Golden State winning 104-99 at home on January 23rd, while Oklahoma State won at home 119-109 on November 18th. Ten of the last 11 meetings in this series have been decided by 11 points or less.
Harry Bondi
MIAMI HEAT (-7.5) over Houston
We used the Heat on Sunday in a blowout win over Toronto as part of our 7-3 FREE PICK run. We explained on Sunday that if you pick your spots with the Heat and be "on" them when they are motivated you can find value and tonight once again presents one of those opportunities. First off, Houston is coming off a record-game last night when it tied the record for most 3-pointers in a single game. Not only will this get Miami's attention, but the Heat are also coming off a horrible performance on Monday night in which they barley got by Charlotte as a 14-point favorite. The focused Heat roll over a Houston team in a perfect spot for an offensive letdown.