Rob Vinciletti
Bulls vs. Hornets
Play: Under 183
This game fits the solid totals system below that plays to the under 10 of 11 times for road favorites like Chicago that are -5 or more with 1 day of rest and scored 100 or more as a road favorite of 5 or more in their last game, vs an opponent like the Hornets that scored 90 or more as a home favorite of -4 or less. These games tend to be lower scoring. New Orleans has gone under the only 2 times they have faced an opponent that allows 91 or less points per game and 8 of 11 this season vs winning teams. The Bulls have gone under in 4 of 5 games vs teams who allow 91 or less. Look for this game to go under the total tonight.
Steve Janus
Nebraska Cornhuskers +3
This may look like a safe spot to bet Michigan as a small road favorite, but I believe your money needs to be on the Cornhuskers. Michigan is simply not a very good team on the road, where Nebraska easily plays their best basketball at home. In conference play the Wolverines are just 1-4 on the road, with their only win coming by 2-points at Purdue. Eight of Nebraska's 11 wins have came at home, including a shocking win over Indiana as 3.5-point underdog.
Even though Michigan comes into this game off a loss, I think it's going to be extremely hard for them to get motivated to play a poor team like Nebraska, especially with two huge home games against Illinois and Ohio State next up on the schedule.
Nebraska simply isn't a popular team to bet on in college basketball, which in turn has allowed the oddsmakers to really set up the public. The Cornhuskers are 32-12 ATS at home when the line is +3 to -3 since 1997 and are 15-4 ATS as a home underdog of 3 points or less or pick since 1997.
SPORTS WAGERS
RICHMOND +106 over La Salle
There's no denying that the Explorers are the superior team here. However, each season it becomes more evident that situational betting in this sport has a stronger influence on the outcome of games than any other sport. We see it almost daily and it landed here on this day as we uncover another unfavorable situation for a small road favorite. La Salle comes in with a 17-7 overall record and a 6-3 conference record. The Explorers are just a half game back of Temple for first place in the A-10, tied with UMass, Xavier and Saint Louis. After this game, they have Saint Louis, UMass and Temple on deck in what is their most crucial three-game set of the year. La Salle is just 4-6 on the road and this is surely it's most vulnerable road game of the season. Richmond has dropped five of its past six games and is going nowhere this season. However, they will relish the spoiler role in an attempt to make life miserable for these conference rivals. The Spiders are 8-3 at home and with just three host games remaining after this one against George Washington, Charlotte and Dayton, this one instantly becomes the one they want most. Play: #552 Richmond +106 (Risking 2 units).
Adding the following games:
WILLIAM & MARY +10½ over Old Dominion
William & Mary +10½ (Risking 2.16 units to win 2).
ST JOSEPH'S +138 over Saint Louis
St. Joesph's +138 (Risking 2 units).
Jeff Scott Sports
5 UNIT PLAY
POWER ANGLE PLAY
Florida State/ Boston College Over 121: Boy these totals have been tough on me, but I feel that i have a good one here, as long as these teams don't put up just 2 points in their last 3 minutes of the game, LOL. Boston College has had problems scoring this year, especially of late as they have averaged just 51.4 ppg in their last 5 games, while in their ACC games they have averaged 55.4 ppg. No they aren't scoring well at all, but the Noles have allowed 60.8 ppg on the road and 62.4 ppg in ACC play so I am fully expecting at least 55 points from the Eagles in this one. That means that we need just 67 points from the Noles. FSU has averaged 71.6 ppg in ACC play on the year, while in their last 5 overall they have averaged 72.2 ppg on 49.8% shooting. BC has allowed 66.1 ppg in ACC play and 66.1 ppg at home, so expecting the Noles to hit at least 67 points in this one is a pretty safe bet. I am actually expecting about 70 from FSU in this one, meaning we don't need a whole lot from the Eagles. Neither team is horrible from the FT line the Arc so you can expect a few extra points from those spots on the court. BC's conference games have averaged just 121.6 ppg, while the Noles' ACC games have put up 134 ppg. This game will fall in between the 2 numbers somewhere. POWER ANGLE FOR THIS PLAY--- Play Over in all games where total is 129.5 or less if the home team has gone under the total by 48 or more points total in their last ten games and they are a bad team (20% to 40%) playing a team with a winning record. This play is 45-10 since 1997.
4 UNIT PLAYS
Missouri State/ Southern Illinois Under 123.5: The Salukis are having some real problems putting the ball in the hoop these days as they have averaged just 52.2 ppg on 40.1% shooting in their last 5 games. I don't expect their scoring to go up much in this one vs a Bears team that has allowed just 58.9 ppg on 37.1% shooting on the road this year and just 57.6 ppg on 39.5% shooting in their last 5 games overall. How bad are the Salukis on offense these days? Well consider that in their last game they were able to score just 53 point on an Evansville team that is 281st in scoring defense (71.7 ppg) and 328th in FG% defense (47.7 %). This offense has not been good at all of late and it won't get better tonight vs the Bears. MSU does average 66.8 ppg in MVC plays and 65,.4 ppg on the road, but they come in struggling a bit at the offensive end as they have averaged just 61.2 ppg on 41.2% shooting in their last 5 games. On defense he Salukis have allowed 70.8 ppg in MVC, but it has been much better of late as they have allowed 63 ppg on 43.9% shooting in their last 5 games. Even if MSU should hit 65 points in this game i just don't see SIU hitting more than 55 points. They just can't score right now and playing a Bears team that hasn't given up much lately won't help here. I expect around 115 in this one.
NORTH CAROLINA -6 over Duke: The Blue Devils do not come into this one playing all that well as in their last 5 games they have lost to Miami and FSU (both at home), beat St John's by just 7 (also at home) and struggled with Va Tech and Maryland before pulling a way late. Carolina also lost to FSU this year, but since then they have won 5 in a row and have outscored their opponents by 13.8 ppg. The Heels are 14-0 at home on the year and have outscored their opponents by 24.8 ppg, including outscoring their ACC foes by 17.8 ppg on this court. Duke is normally known for a solid defensive team, but this year they have allowed 69.1 ppg (231st) on 43.8% shooting (218th) and now must head to Carolina where the Heels have averaged 89.1 ppg on 49.1% shooting at home. That is not a good matchup for the Devils. Carolina had some defensive problems in the early part of the year, but they have allowed 65.8 ppg in their last 4 games and they have allowed just 64.3 ppg at home. Duke can score, but Carolina's defense has been strong and should be able to keep the Dukies from putting up enough points to keep this one close. Carolina lost by 17 points to Duke in last years ACC Tourney and they will look for payback here. Heels by DD in this one.
3 UNIT PLAYS
Temple/ George Washington Over 132: Temple has been on a scoring spree of late as they come in having scored 73 points or more in 6 straight games, while averaging 76.1 ppg over that stretch. The Owls have also averaged a healthy 79 ppg at home and 74.6 ppg in Atlantic 10 play. GW comes in having allowed 67.6 ppg in conference play, including 71.3 ppg in A-10 road games. Temple is an uptempo team this year and in the last 4 games GW has faced two uptempo teams (Lasalle & UMass) and they allowed 78 & 86 points in those two games respectively, with 151 ppg scored in the two games. In an uptempo game GW doesn't have good enough defensive play to hold teams down and they get into high scoring games. In those two game GW did put up 69 ppg, while in conference play they have averaged 64.2 ppg, and while they have struggled to score of late (57.6 ppg in their last 5 games), they should be able to grab at least 63 points vs a temple team that has allowed 66.6 ppg in Conference play and 70.7 ppg in their home games overall. In this game I can see Temple hitting at least 75 points, leaving GW with only 59 points to get and I feel that will be easy for them as well. This game should flirt with 140 points.
Pittsburgh -3 over SOUTH FLORIDA: The Panther have shaken off their rough start in the Big East to win 4 in a row and they have been impressive in doing so. The Panthers had lost 8 in a row, while scoring just 59.8 ppg and that was mainly due to the loss of Trey Woodall, but with him back they have looked much better at the offensive end, putting up 77.5 ppg in their 4 game win streak. South Florida has impressed this year as they are 6-4 in the Big East and 10-1 at home, but they have lost by 20 points to Marquette and 30 to Georgetown in their last 3 games. True those games where on the road, but it shows that this team will have problems with the better teams in the league and right now Pitt is one of the better teams in the league. Pitt seems to be finding its swagger, and at a scary time for the rest of the Big East. The once proud program has some ground to make up but figures to keep its momentum headed in the right direction Wednesday with a fifth consecutive win. KEY TRENDS--- S FLORIDA is 0-7 ATS when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 80%) this season, while PITTSBURGH is 17-8 ATS after 3 consecutive conference games over the last 2 seasons.
2 UNIT PLAYS
Michigan -3 over NEBRASKA: The Huskers are wearing down at the defensive end as they have allowed 76.3 ppg in their last 4 games. Michigan has been playing very good defense this year as they have allowed just 62.3 ppg overall. Even at home I don't expect the Huskers defense to let them stay in this one. The Wolverines get a rare road win here with ease. KEY TRENDS--- MICHIGAN is 14-4 ATS versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing <=14 turnovers/game over the last 2 seasons, while NEBRASKA is 8-21 ATS versus teams who average 33 or less rebounds/game on the season since 1997.
Baylor/ Kansas Under 143.5: The Over looks real enticing, especially after these teams combined for 166 in the last game, but I believe adjustments will be made and these two very good defensive teams will shine at that end of the floor. Kansas has allowed teams to score just 61.3 ppg (45th) on just 38.3% shooting (11th), while Baylor comes in allowing just 63.1 ppg (77th) on 39.6% shooting, including just 61 ppg on 38.8% shooting on the road, while at home they have allowed just 61 ppg on 36.4% shooting. Baylor's Big 12 games have averaged 144.4 ppg, but Kansas' conference games have averaged 137.7 ppg. Both teams can score and both teams may look to run, but this is also a very very big game and i expect the pace to really drop off in the last 10 minutes of the game as both teams work the clock and look for the perfect shot. This one should finish around 138.
1 UNIT PLAY
NC Wilmington +6 over DELAWARE: UNC-WILMINGTON is 10-2 ATS versus teams who average 6 or less steals/game on the season over the last 2 seasons, and 35-18 ATS in road games in February games since 1997
Erin Rynning
Houston at Portland
Play: Over 194
These two teams hook up for a second time this season with the Rockets winning the first meeting, 107-105 in overtime. The game was tied 97-97 at the end of regulation which fell just short of the closing total of 196. We’re looking to fade the massive totals move in this one. The total opened 197 and has now been pounded down to 194. Both teams shot below average the first time around as the pace was quite quick. Houston is certainly built to score with Kyle Lowry and Kevin Martin in the backcourt, while the offensively efficient Louis Scola opens up the perimeter with his low post play. The Rockets are deficient at guarding the rim and Blazers forward LaMarcus Aldridge should have a monster game. If he can score 39 against the bigs of the Thunder, the Rockets interior is in for a long night. Meanwhile, the Blazers have made the effort to establish tempo like they did in the early portion of the season. Over their last three home games they’ve averaged 112 points per game, which coincides with their recommitment to the run game. The Rockets will look to keep pace as well as they prefer an up-tempo style. Play this one over the total.
Jimmy Boyd
1 Unit Dallas Mavericks +1.5
Dallas and Denver will be motivated as both enter off three consecutive defeats, but I believe the Mavericks will want this game just a little bit more. The reigning NBA champs were embarrassed with a 22-point loss in the season's first meeting. That defeat will be the driving force behind a win tonight. Plus, the Mavs, who have had a full 3 days to prepare, enter this contest with a healthier roster.
Depth was the Nuggets' strength early on but that depth has been greatly depleted with Arron Afflalo, Rudy Fernandez, Nene, Timofey Mozgov, Corey Brewer and Danilo Gallinari all banged up. Afflalo and Fernandez should be on the floor tonight, but Nene's status is still up in the air and it looks like Mozgov and Brewer will be out. The biggest loss is Gallinari - the team's leading scorer - who is out indefinitely with a serious ankle injury.
The Mavericks are 13-3-1 ATS in their last 17 games as an underdog, and the underdog is 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings in this series. The Nuggets are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as a favorite and 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games as a home favorite. We'll take the Mavs.
Jeff Alexander
1 Unit South Florida +3
The South Florida Bulls have been a tremendous investment at home where they are 6-2 ATS in their last 8. They have been an even better investment at home when catching 6.5 points or less, going 9-1-1 ATS in their last 11 in this situation. The Pitt Panthers are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games as a favorite and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite of 6.5 points or less. We'll take South Florida and the points.
Dave Price
1 Unit Duke +6.5
Motivated by Sunday's loss to Miami and sitting a game out of first in the ACC standings, look for Duke to take North Carolina right down to the wire this evening. Duke has quietly won 4 of the last 5 in the series. Plus, the Blue Devils are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings at North Carolina, and the road team is 7-2 ATS in the last 9 meetings. The Blue Devils are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games following a loss and 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games as a road underdog of 6.5 points or less. Take Duke.
Steve Janus
Nebraska Cornhuskers +3
This may look like a safe spot to bet Michigan as a small road favorite, but I believe your money needs to be on the Cornhuskers. Michigan is simply not a very good team on the road, where Nebraska easily plays their best basketball at home. In conference play the Wolverines are just 1-4 on the road, with their only win coming by 2-points at Purdue. Eight of Nebraska's 11 wins have came at home, including a shocking win over Indiana as 3.5-point underdog.
Even though Michigan comes into this game off a loss, I think it's going to be extremely hard for them to get motivated to play a poor team like Nebraska, especially with two huge home games against Illinois and Ohio State next up on the schedule.
Nebraska simply isn't a popular team to bet on in college basketball, which in turn has allowed the oddsmakers to really set up the public. The Cornhuskers are 32-12 ATS at home when the line is +3 to -3 since 1997 and are 15-4 ATS as a home underdog of 3 points or less or pick since 1997.
Jack Jones
Atlanta Hawks -3
The Atlanta Hawks will be more motivated for a win tonight than at any other point of the season. They are in the midst of their first 3-game losing streak of the season. There's no question this team wants to put an end to it tonight.
Atlanta is showing some of their best value of the season due to this 3-game skid. As only a 3-point favorite over the Indiana Pacers, I'm certainly willing to pull the trigger. Atlanta is still 16-9 on the season, including 8-4 at home where they are outscoring opponents by 5.4 points/game.
The home team is 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings. Atlanta has really had Indiana's number as well, winning nine of the last 11 meetings. The favorite is an impressive 16-5 ATS in the last 21 meetings. Atlanta is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home meetings with Indiana.
This play falls into a system that is 76-35 (68.5%) ATS since 1996. It tells us to bet on home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (ATLANTA) - off a upset loss as a favorite, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a winning record. Bet the Hawks Wednesday.
Kyle Hunter
Duke vs. North Carolina
Play: Over 156½
Duke and North Carolina meet in the best rivalry in college basketball tonight. I was tempted to play the 'over' when I saw this open at 160.5, but I laid off. The line has been driven down to 156.5, where I think it is a solid value. I projected this one at 162 or 163 points. North Carolina will look to use their athleticism and get out in transition. Duke should be able to score from beyond the arc here. The value here is with the over.
Sam Martin
Cincinnati at St. Johns
Prediction: Cincinnati
Big revenge spot for the Bearcats here, who fell at home against St. John's when they were in an awful motivation spot with a letdown after a big win vs. Notre Dame as well as a lookahead to Georgetown. Cincy shot just 26% from the floor in the two-point loss, but that won't happen again as St. John's is allowing 45% shooting in conference play, and the Bearcats won't be caught off guard twice. Now it's St. John's in the bad motivational spot after playing Syracuse last and with Georgetown on deck, and we look for the Bearcats to show no mercy in the big win!
MTi Sports
Houston Rockets at Portland Trail Blazers
Prediction: Portland Trail Blazers
The Blazers have alternated SU and ATS wins and losses in each of their last eight games. They are on W here and we?ll stick with the pattern. The Blazers are 8-0 ATS (15.6 ppg) since March 15, 2011 after a loss in which Gerald Wallace took fewer than 10 shots and 4-0 ATS (17.0 ppg) at home after a loss in which Nicolas Batum was not the Trailblazers' high scorer. The Rockets are 0-6 ATS (-8.1 ppg) as a dog with at least one day of rest after a game in which they shot at least ten three-pointers and made at least half of them. Lay the points.
Larry Ness
Baylor -1.5
Scott Drew's Baylor team couldn't stop the inside-outside combination of the 6-10 Robinson (18.0-12.0) and Taylor (16.9-5.2 APG) on Jan 16 at Allen Fieldhouse as Robinson had 27 points with 14 rebounds and Taylor had 28 points with six assists in Kansas' 92-74 win which ended Baylor's school-best 17-0 start to this season. Baylor gets a top-10 rematch at home tonight (Baylor is No. 6 and Kansas No. 7), with the winner getting a share of the Big-12 lead with No. 4 Missouri, which has already beaten them both. Surely, Baylor's 6-11 standout Perry Jones III (14.8-7.9) is anxious to get another shot at the Jayhawks. He missed the first five games of the season because of an NCAA suspension and tweaked his ankle in the first Kansas game, although he still scored 18 points. Jones was still ailing against Missouri (Baylor's only other loss this year) but has averaged 19.5 PPG and 10.5 RPG in the four games since. Jones is joined up front by the 6-7 Acy (12.4-7.0 and 6-9 freshman Miller (12.4-5.3). The backcourt group is led by JC transfer Jackson (12.7-3.0-5.9), Heslip (9.6) and Anthony Jones (5.4-3.3). Kansas lost the Morris twins plus four guards who combined to contribute right at 30 PPG from LY's team. Robinson has thrived with the extra minutes up front and so has the 7-0 Withey (8.1-5.8 up from 2.3-1.8 LY). Taylor's help on the perimeter comes from Releford (9.6-4.2) and Johnson (9.2-2.8-3.6). You may have read that Kansas coach Bill Self hasn't lost back-to-back games since the 2005-06 season but I believe R-E-V-E-N-G-E is the word in this one. If the Bears are to win their first-ever Big-12 title, this one is a MUST! Take the Bears.
Tony George
Dallas +1
WOW. A 4 Point overlay on an NBA game is rare. If it were not for the fact I have 3 crucial NCAA Games out tonight, I would make this a premium play. I have Dallas at -3 on my power ratings here and I will tell you why. I like REVENGE spots with good NBA teams. Dallas came into this season fat and sassy off a world title. They got waxed the day after Christmas against the Nuggets at home after Miami beat them. Denver embarassed them by 22 points. The Nuggets are better than advertised this year, no doubt, but this is a spot where Dallas has had 3 days off and this one circled on the schedule since they got blasted at home by Denver.
The Nuggets also have dropped 5 out of their last 6 and while Dallas has been on a 3 game slide, they have been waiting in the bushes for this one. Denver has given up a 100 ppg their last 5 and are banged up on their roster coming into this one, and while they are a deep team on the bench, I have a very good feeling about Dallas in this spot pulling out a can of Whoop ass.