Free Picks: Service Plays for Wednesday, February 9,2011

Marc Lawrence

Charlotte Bobcats at Indiana Pacers
Prediction: Charlotte Bobcats

The schizophrenic Pacers gained another personality as head coach Jim O?Brien was canned after a 17-27 start and replaced by assistant Frank Vogel. To be honest, we?re not quite sure which Indiana team will show up tonight at Conseco Fieldhouse. Is it the one who topped the Nuggets, Heat, Lakers, Hornets and Mavs? Or the one who lost to the likes of the Wizards, Warriors, Bucks and Clippers? We do know, however, that the Pacers are just 7-17-1 ATS as favorites after mixing it up with Miami and 1-7 ATS over their last eight games this season when playing without rest. Series history also has us bobbing with the Cats as Charlotte is 11-3-1 ATS when taking points, including 4-0 ATS if the Pacers enter with no rest. Back the hard-trying Bobcats against these split-personality Pacers. We recommend a 1-unit play on Charlotte.

Tom Freese

San Antonio Spurs at Toronto Raptors
Prediction: San Antonio Spurs

Toronto is 14-38 straight up this year. The Raptors are 4-10 ATS their last 14 home games and they are 15-35-1 ATS their last 51 home games. The Raptors are 17-36-1 ATS their last 54 games when their opponent scores 100 or more points in their last game. San Antonio is 43-8 straight up this year. The Spurs are 35-17 ATS their last 52 games off a straight up win by more than 10 points. The Spurs are 6-1 ATS their last 7 games overall and they are 7-3 ATS when playing with no rest. The Spurs are 11-5-2 ATS their last 18 Eastern Conference games.

Frank Jordan

New Orleans Hornets vs. New Jersey Nets
Play: New Orleans Hornets -2

New Jersey is 15-37, but at home they are around .500 at 12-13. However against they went are just 7-14 as they welcome in the Hornets. New Orleans is 32-21 and 16-5 against the East, but on the road they are 12-14. In this one look for the old match up of Devin Harris and Chris Paul to be rehashed with Paul dominating in ever facet. Play New Orleans

Cajun Sports

North Carolina vs. Duke
Play: North Carolina +10

UNC makes the short trip to Cameron Indoor Arena for an ACC battle with instate rival Duke Blue Devils on Wednesday night. UNC point guard Larry Drew has decided to transfer after being benched for making so many mental mistakes and this appears to be an outstanding change for the Tar Heels. With him leaving true freshman PG Kendall Marshall has been playing at a very high level with an ACC high sixteen assists in UNC’s thumping of the Seminoles on Sunday. His decision-making and contributions have certainly helped with the team’s current five-game win streak. UNC has gotten production from inside the arc recently with over 56 percent of their offense coming from the two-point area of the floor, which is a solid average. We believe the Tar Heels have the advantage in this area including the paint which means Duke will have to be on with their trey’s to cover this huge number. UNC’s Tyler Zeller and John Henson should have the matchup advantage over Duke’s Plumlees and Kelly in the paint. Duke’s offensive production comes primarily from three-point land and with Strickland; playing well in the backcourt the Heels should be able to keep Duke’s Nolan Smith in check from outside. UNC is 41-27-1 in all games in this price range since 1999 and 26-8-1 ATS since 2005. UNC is a perfect 4-0 ATS as an underdog in this price range and 4-0 ATS as a road underdog in the same situation. The Tar Heels are 7-1 ATS after five against the spread wins and this game in the current price range. UNC is 67-50-1 ATS after playing their last game at home and 22-5 ATS after playing their last game at home and in the current price range. With UNC having little to no pressure on them for this game, many thought a month ago this game would be for UNC to prove they were the best number two team in the ACC but with their recent success this game could be to show who is actually the best in the ACC right now overall. Take the double-digit points as the Tar Heels of North Carolina take the Blue Devils right down to the wire.

Rob Vinciletti

Orlando Magic vs. Philadelphia 76ers
Play: Philadelphia 76ers +1.5

The Sixers off the blowout win in Atlanta qualify in a solid system that plays on home teams that are a dog or favored by less than 9 that come in off a win of 28 or more points provided they did not lose the prior game before the win as a home dog of 8 or more. These homers cash at an 82% clip long term. The Sixers are 22-9 ats with revenge, 11-2 ats vs South East Divisional opponents and are a perfect 4-0 straight as a home dog of 3 or less. These two have split a pair this season with bot previous games played in Orlando. The Magi are just 1-6 straight up as a road favorite of 3 or less. The Sixers have extra motivation as well as they no doubt hear D. Howard's comments on the interview on NBA TV. When asked about the Sixers earlier win in Orlando he was quoted as saying this ones not going into overtime, guaranteed. However the insinuation was taken as him guaranteeing a win in Philly. Look for the Sixers to get the cash as a small dog here tonight.

Jim Feist

Los Angeles Clippers vs. New York Knicks
Play: Los Angeles Clippers +7

The Clippers are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 vs. the Eastern Conference. The Knicks have a big game on deck coming up against the Lakers, a revenge game, and the Knicks are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 vs. the Western Conference. The Clippers can get in for easy shots against small teams, as Blake Griffin is second in the NBA in dunks (116) and Clippers center DeAndre Jordan stands third at 94. And when these teams meet the underdog is 7-1 ATS in the last 8 meetings. Play the LA Clippers.

Brent Brooks

Michigan -3

Several factors going into this play. Shurna hasn't shown us that he has recovered from the injury and may be playing hurt. Michigan's defense is worlds better than Northwestern. The Wildcats have a single conference road win at Iowa and have a track record of Big 10 road struggles.

Finally, Michigan struggles against teams with interior presence (Ohio State, Wisconsin, etc) and that isn't something they have to contend with here. Look for their defense to limit the Cats from deep and look for Darius Morris to have a 20 point game. I see this game being played Michigan's preferred pace.

Memphis +2.5

Talk about a tale of two seasons for UCF, ranked and dominant in non conference play on the virtue of beating some decent teams (Florida, Miami, Princeton) but since losing their second conference game they have gone cold and now stand at 1-7 in C-USA play. They get rocked on the road and edged at home.

Memphis turned a corner when Witherspoon returned to the lineup and their losses knocked them out of the top25. It seems young teams can really start to feel the pressure of being ranked early in the season and play tightly yet will bounce back once those expectations subside.

Choosing to ride the Tigers here as the Knights woes will continue for at least another game or two.

Bradley +15

The Braves lost at home earlier this year to the Bears by 11 so why take them on the road only getting 15? Simple. Both teams are playing differently now.

The Braves seem to finally getting some scoring help for Andrew Warren. That needs to continue here in this game and I believe it will. If either Dodson or Simms-Edwards steps up with about 12-15 points and Warren has an average night - we should be in good shape here.

As for the Bears? They've been scraping by or losing outright since playing the Braves and their ATS record has taken a hit. They continue to be overvalued so we pounce.

James Patrick Sports

Bobcats vs. Pacers

The Pacers let one slip away in South Beach last night against the Heat and Indiana is (1-7) ATS in their last eight games this season when playing without rest. Charlotte is a solid (11-3-1) ATS when taking points and Big Game James Patrick's Wednesday NBA complimentary selection is on the improved Bobcats. Take Charlotte Bobcats.

Matt Fargo

Texas vs. Oklahoma
Play: Oklahoma +11.5

Oklahoma is not getting a lot of respect here and for pretty obvious reasons. The Sooners are in a down season but they have been playing a lot better of late as they are 4-1 in their last five games, 7-4 in their last 11 games and 9-5 in their last 14 games following a 3-5 start to the season that included a five-game losing streak. The most recent loss came Saturday at Oklahoma St. but it was by only six points. This came after their first three Big XII losses by 17, 13 and 20 points. That 20-point defeat came at Texas which has been the top team in the conference through the first half of the season. The Longhorns have not only been winning but they have been winning big. They are 8-0 in the conference and all eight of those victories have come by double-digits. This includes road wins at Kansas, Texas A&M and Oklahoma St. which is even more impressive knowing that those three teams have only four combined home losses on the entire season. Those results should give Texas another easy win here on the road but it certainly is not that easy. The lines have been inflated because of this unprecedented run and because of that, the public is being asked to lay a lot more points than it should be. That definitely is not stopping the masses however as close to 80 percent of early action is on Texas with the not budging in most cases and actually coming down some in others. This reverse movement is favoring the Sooners. Play on underdogs of 10 or more points with a winning percentage between .501 and .600 that are revenging a same season loss against a team with a winning record. This situation is 73-37 ATS (66.4 percent) over the last five seasons. Texas is just 8-19 ATS in its last 27 games following a conference victory while going 1-5 ATS in its last six games following an ATS loss. The Sooners are 4-0 ATS in their last four games against teams with a winning record. 3* Oklahoma Sooners

Craig Trapp

Magic vs. 76ers
Play: Under 197

Already these teams have played twice this year with under in both games played. Even better ORL is coming off three under games in a row where their defense has not given up over 92 pts in any of the games. Defense is the constant for both of these teams and tonight this one looks like a game in the high 80's as we win with big under free play.

Jimmy Boyd

1 Unit on Chicago Bulls +1

Off back-to-back losses in which Chicago's defense let it down, expect the Bulls to tighten the screws and find the win column against the struggling Jazz tonight. Utah was lucky to get a win against lowly Sacramento in its last game, and it is worth noting that the Jazz haven't won consecutive games since they won 3 straight from Jan. 8-14. It is also worth noting that the Bulls haven't lost 3 in a row all season. In fact, Chicago is 15-4 ATS off 2 or more consecutive road losses over the last 3 seasons.The Bulls are 19-7 ATS in their last 26 games as an underdog of 4.5 points or less and 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games as an underdog overall. The Jazz are 6-15 ATS in their last 21 games overall, 3-8 ATS in their last 11 home games and 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning percentage above .600. Bet the Bulls.

Tom Stryker

Toledo vs. Ohio
Play: Ohio-16

Resting with a soft 11-12 SU record and staring at a pair of MAC road wars at Western Michigan and Buffalo, Ohio certainly won't take this 4-19 SU Toledo team for granted. The Bobcats can put points on the board in a hurry (average 74.3 ppg) and they'll have a field day matched up against this Rockets defense that can't seem to stop anyone (allow an average of 69.4 ppg).

According to the history book, the host in this series has been a sound investment posting a reliable 21-7 SU and 19-9 ATS record dating back to the 1990-91 season. A great deal of profit has been found when the home team enters off a pointspread loss - now 11-1 SU and 10-2 ATS in the last 12 meetings.

In case you haven't been paying attention, Ohio has done a great deal of damage at home inside The Convo posting a respectable 136-96 ATS record. In this role entering off two or more pointspread losses, the Bobcats have been in a zone posting a phenomenal 21-4 ATS mark including a nearly perfect 11-1 ATS record in this role priced as a favorite of -9 or more.

Toledo has dropped five straight to conference foes and the Rockets are locked into one of their worst team roles. When taking the floor with four or more days in between games, UT has produced a weak 9-44 SU and 14-34-1 ATS record including just 7-25 ATS in this role sporting a won/loss percentage of .170 or better.

On the MAC road, Toledo is on a dismal 1-28 SU and 10-19 ATS run. Matched up against a Bobcats bunch that is looking to get back to .500 the Rockets will be in serious trouble. Take Ohio. Thank you and best of luck, Tom Stryker.

Ray Monohan

Memphis vs. Central Florida
Play: Central Florida -2

Central Florida is out for revenge tonight at the UCF arena in Orlando as it tests their 11-3 home record against conference foe Memphis (17-6). Keep in mind UCF gets back A.J. Rompza tonight as well. The Knights are hoping his return will help shake them out of the throes of a seven-game losing streak. He is the leader of this team, and will make a world of difference. The last time these 2 teams met wasn't that long ago (Jan 26th) a 77-61 Memphis win, in Memphis. Since that game Memphis has gone 1-2 (1-2 ATS), and UCF has gone 0-2 (0-2 ATS). Nothing to right home about. But like I said I'm playing on the revenge angle on this one tonight. I like how these two teams matchup, and give UCF the edge in FT%, D, Rebounding, and T/O's, At home the Knights are averaging 69.2 scoring, and holding teams to 57.2 points scored on defense. Trends I like include, Knights are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games as a favorite of 0.5-6.5. Tigers are 6-13 ATS in their last 19 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Tigers are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 Wednesday games. Tigers are 9-23 ATS in their last 32 games following a S.U. win. I believe UCF's stingy D when playing at home will be the difference here tonight and have no problem giving the 2. (This line's moving at most books, up to -2.5 now. I'd grab it up to 3)

Chip Chirimbes

Dallas Mavericks vs. Sacramento Kings
Play: Sacramento Kings +5

The Sacramento Kings (12-36, #19-28-1) are playing their fifth straight home game hosting the Dallas Mavericks (36-15, #27-22-2) who have won nine straight. Although Dallas has dominated this series winning 15 of 17 the Kings are currently playing their best ball of the season led by rookie DeMarcus Cousins averaging over 20 points and almost 10 boards in recent play and with point guard Tyreke Evans emergence. Take the KINGS!