Sean Murphy
Miami (FL) @ Wake Forest
PICK: Wake Forest +9
This is a tricky spot for Miami, as it aims for its third consecutive win after 'surviving' a two-game homestand against Georgia Tech and Virginia (both wins came by two points - one in overtime).
The Hurricanes are just 3-6 in ACC play this season, but still haven't figured out how to win on the road, going 0-4 albeit against tough opposition in Duke, Clemson, N.C. State, and Virginia Tech.
It's worth noting that Miami has shown the tendency to get involved in tight contests, with eight of its nine conference games having been decided by seven points or less. Not surprisingly, the underdog is 7-2 ATS in those nine games.
A flu has done a number on the 'Canes this week, and while it looks like it will be all hands on deck tonight in Winston-Salem, it wouldn't shock me to see them lack some energy. Keep in mind, Miami will be playing for the third time in the last week.
Wake Forest is having a miserable season, and it's not much of a surprise given the roster turnover they've been forced to endure. The Demon Deacons went winless in trips to Florida State and Maryland last week, dropping blowout decisions by 24 and 21 points. That keeps them well off of most bettors' radar here tonight.
Wake did manage to notch a victory in its most recent home game - a 76-71 win over Virginia as a four-point underdog. The Deacons actually own a winning record here at home this season at 7-6. With a matchup against struggling N.C. State up next, they have the opportunity to build some positive momentum if they can pull off a shocker here tonight.
Note that these two teams actually boast similar offensive numbers on the season, and Wake Forest has been slightly better defensively here at home than Miami has been on the road.
The Demon Deacons are 3-2-1 ATS as a home underdog this season and 9-4-1 ATS in that role over their last 14 opportunities. Given Miami's struggles in the favorite role, there's reason to believe that Wake can stay inside the lofty pointspread tonight. Take Wake Forest.
John Ryan
Northwestern at Michigan Feb 9 2011 6:30PM
Prediction: Northwestern
5* graded play on the Northwestern Wildcats as they visit the Michigan Wolverines In Big Ten action set to start at 7:00 PM ET. My proprietary sports handicapping database and simulator shows a high probability that the Wildcats will lose this game by three or fewer points and has an excellent shot at winning the game. Michigan is playing their best basketball of the season and have covered four straight, but Northwestern has too much offensive firepower for Michigan to contain for an entire 40 minutes.
I also like the playing Northwestern on the first half line for a 3* amount fully expecting a very fast start by the Wildcats. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 25-2 ATS against the first half line for 93% winners since 1997. This system has gone 10-1 ATS over the past five seasons and 6-0 ATS over the past three seasons. This is the first qualifying play for this system this year. Play on road teams where the first half line is +1.5 to -1.5 and is a solid offensive team scoring between 74 to 78 points per game, after a win by 6 points or less and now facing an excellent defensive team allowing 63 or fewer points per game after 15 or more games.
The system has numerous parts to it and would require some work to track, but producing these kinds of records over 14 years is reason enough to take it upon yourself and monitor this money making system. Most importance is that it under scores the dominance that I strongly believe will occur in this game.
The Wildcats rank second in the Big Ten and 43rd nationally in scoring offense at 75 points per game. They are one of the few teams in the nation that are scoring more in road games than at home. They are averaging 77.1 points per game in road games this season. This undoubtedly will make the game more difficult for Michigan to manage.
Northwestern and Michigan are two of the worst rebounding teams in the Big Ten. Northwestern ranks dead last in 11th place in the Big Ten and 313th nationally in total rebounding getting just 31 boards per game. Michigan ranks 10th in the Big Ten and 290th nationally in total rebounding getting 32.0 boards per game.
Both teams prefer to pack in the defense into the paint area and have a strong focus defending their glass first. They rank poorly in offensive rebounding as well. This illustrates that the game will take on a half court Big Ten style of game. This heavily favors Northwestern and their superior ability to execute fundamental basketball plays in the half court sets and score points.
Northwestern is a great ball handling and ball movement team that will wear down and exploit the Michigan defense. Northwestern ranks best in the Big Ten and ranks 5th nationally in assists at 17.8 assists per game. By comparison, Michigan ranks 9th in the Big Ten and 131st nationally in assists getting 13.4 assists per game. You will see a tired Michigan defense in the second half of this game and a tired defense lacks the abilities to rebound the ball and get into transition quickly looking for high percentage fast break scoring opportunities. Take Northwestern.
JR O'Donnell
Colorado / Texas A&M Under 140
Jr O back to a solid ESPN HD NCAAB total here Wednesday as the #22 ranked and 17-5 Aggies behind coach Mark Tuergeon can and will play the D as these Aggies open a 2-game road swing vs. the Colorado Buffaloes 15-9 in Boulder @ the Coors Events Center. The Aggies got murdered by Texas 2 games ago and they were pasted and allowed Baylor to squeak by a basket. Colo Buffs got blasted by Mizzou and allowed 89 last outing. The Jr O zone notes that the Colorado leads the series, 9-8 & Texas A&M has won 7 in a row & these Aggies have won the last 3 @ the Coors Center. The Buffaloes are led by Coach Boyle and they are a banged up crew. Our O power ratings check in here @ 135.
These Buffs do "HOWEVER" create match up problems for the Aggies as the Big Guards from the Buffs in 6-6 sophomore Burks and senior Higgins will create back court problems for the Aggies. These Aggies are holding opponets to 59.9 ppg and 42 percent shooting the last 3 ballgames. The Under is 11-4 in Aggies last 15 games as a road underdog of 0.5-6.5. The Under is 8-2 in Aggies last 10 road games. The sharp total here is the "Under"
EZWINNERS
Cleveland Cavaliers -1
The Cavs have thirty five losses in their last thirty six games and the longest winless run that the NBA has ever seen, but I think this is the spot where they end their futility. Detroit has not been a good team on the road this season and the Pistons played a tough game last night at home against the Spurs. Now Detroit travels to Cleveland to play a rested Cavaliers team. Detroit is just 3-9 this season in the second game of back to backs and only 1-7 in the second game of back to backs if the team they are playing is rested. As bad as Cleveland is, they are getting nice line value from Vegas and they are actually on a nice 6-3-1 run against the spread in their last ten games. The team is still playing hard and they have not quit on Coach Byron Scott and I look for another strong effort tonight. Play on Cleveland.
SPORTS WAGERS
TORONTO +7 over San Antonio
The Spurs were a 6½-point choice in Detroit last night and beat them by 11. Now they’re a half point higher in Toronto and that looks pretty sweet when you consider that the Raps have one win in its last 14 games. A lot of folks have been cashing tickets by laying road points with good teams over bad one’s and that’s going to even out in favor of the bad teams real soon. The oddsmakers aren’t foolish, they know exactly who the money is going to come in on and they entice people into playing the wrong side. This is a classic example of that. The Spurs are 43-8 and have a comfortable seven-game lead over second place Dallas. At some point they’re going to relax and this looks like one of those games. This is a veteran squad that is not going to over-exert themselves vs this bottom feeder. San An is in the midst of an eight-game road trip with this being the middle game of that trip and the line suggests a breather. A Raps victory would not surprise but be very careful here if you were leaning to laying the points. Play: Toronto +7 (Risking 2.1 units to win 2).
WASHINGTON +100 over Milwaukee
Have no interest whatsoever in laying juice or points with the Bucks on the road. The Bucks keep every team in the game because they go on prolonged scoring droughts every game without exception. They have just eight wins in 27 road games while the Wiz are 13-11 at home. Washington is coming off back-to-back home losses to Atlanta and Orlando but this isn’t an upper echelon East team. The Wiz match up well with the Bucks in large part to Trevor Booker and JaVale McGee being able to go head to head with Andrew Bogut. Those second chance points and put-backs won’t be there with those two on the floor. Milwaukee has dropped three in a row on the road and six of nine with only wins over that stretch coming against Toronto, Cleveland and New Jersey. Wrong side favored. Play: Washington –102 (Risking 2.04 units to win 2).
SPORTS WAGERS
North Carolina +10 over DUKE
The Dukies are ranked 5th in the nation which is a complete farce because they’re not close to being the fifth best team in the country. Hell, we’re not even convinced that they’re better than the Tar Heels. Duke is 8-1 in the conference and 21-2 overall but so what. The ACC is weaker than it’s been in years and years and the Blue Devils have taken full advantage. What they’ve done is blow out a lot of bad teams and skewed their stats in the process. The Blue Devils have weaknesses that can be exploited. They rely heavily n the three-point shot and if that isn’t falling with consistency they’re in trouble. The Johnny’s absolutely ran over them and outside of a win over K-State earlier in the year, none of their wins have much merit. They beat a reeling Spartans squad by just five and they also lost to Florida State. Now the Dukies are being asked to lay 10 big points against its biggest rival in a game they could lose outright. The Tar Heels are coming on and they look better with each passing game. All of their five losses have been legit with the exception of the Georgia Tech defeat. The Tar Heels other losses were to Texas by a bucket and to Minnesota, Vandy and Illinois with the latter three coming in late November. Those are all quality teams and the Tar Heels have been on fire ever since. They can score, they can rebound, they can defend and there’s no way they should lose by double digits to this very overrated host. Play: #789 North Carolina +10 (Risking 2.16 units to win 2).
IOWA +7 over Wisconsin
The Badgers have been impressive lately with five wins in its last six with two of those being complete blowouts over MSU and Northwestern. That’s nice but the Badgers struggle on the road, they struggle to score points and they struggle to grab rebounds. That’s not a recipe for laying seven points on the road in rivalry week. The Badgers stock is too high right now and the Hawkeyes can be a legit opponent. Iowa went through a rough stretch but they’ve found some life with two straight wins including a road win over Indiana in its latest contest. The total in this one is just 122, which suggests a very low scoring game. When a total this low appears, taking the points is the prudent move. Play: #780 Iowa +7 (Risking 2.18 units to win 2).
Northwestern +126 over MICHIGAN
Northwestern is the better team. That doesn’t always guarantee a win but the Wolverines are too inconsistent to trust laying points or juice against a superior opponent. The Wildcats are coming off four straight games against ranked opponents in Wisconsin, Minnesota, Ohio St. and Illinois. They beat the Illini and they lost by a single point to the Buckeyes. After facing that quartet, the Wildcats take a big step down in class vs the Wolverines and we expect them to respond. Michigan has zero win this season over ranked opponents and are now 0-6 in those games. They recently lost six straight and they have a whole bunch of nothing wins this year. The Wolverines don’t stand out in any one category and frankly, they’re just a run of the mill team that is going to have a difficult time beating any quality opponent. The Wildcats beat them already by 14 this year and there’s no reason why they can’t duplicate that here. Play: #721 Northwestern +126 (Risking 2 units).
Telly
2 of my 5 plays today
Wofford -6.5
William & Mary +9
SPORTS WAGERS
Phoenix +131 over DALLAS
The Stars have been lights out at home this season but right now is not the time to play them. Dallas has just one win in its last six games and that lone victory came against the last place Oilers. What makes them especially risky as the chalk is the recent goaltending of Kari Lehtonen. He’s somewhat frazzled these days and neither he nor Andrew Raycroft has been able to come up with big stops when needed. In that aforementioned funk the Stars allowed 27 goals against in those five losses. Ouch. The Coyotes are warming up with back-to-back shutout wins. Those types of victories instill a lot of confidence in both the team and goaltender. They’re playing Coyotes hockey once again in that they’re a tough team to play and they refuse to get outworked. It’s also worth noting that the Coyotes have beaten Dallas two out of three times this season and that’s when the Stars were rolling. That’s no longer the case. Play: Phoenix +131 (Risking 2 units).
Ottawa +167 over CALGARY
The Flames are really playing well these days and have been for about three weeks now. Calgary has picked up points in eight straight games with only one OT loss during that stretch. Having said that, this is still an offensively challenged team that is in danger of losing to anyone at anytime. They really don’t create a lot of chances and they’re a huge risk as a big favorite. The Sens are reeling big time with 10 losses in a row and just one win in its last 17 games. However, they’re coming off a rock-solid performance in Vancouver in a game they probably deserved a better fate in. That effort coincided with the return of Jason Spezza and he was the best player on the ice for either team. Spezza is an impact player and he makes the Sens instantly better with his creativity and desire to win. The Senators are not as bad as their record indicates and they’re on the verge of ending this nightmarish streak. What we have here is an overpriced Flames squad vs an underpriced Senators are we’re buying some. Play: Ottawa +167 (Risking 2 units).
Chicago -½ -101 over EDMONTON
Losing this game for the Blackhawks is not an option. Chicago sits in 11th place in the West and those losses are difficult to make up for down the stretch. After back-to-back losses to Vancouver and Calgary, believe it or not, this game could be the pivotal one in the Blackhawks season. It’s the fourth leg of a six-game trip and they need wins. Coach Q put the team through a grueling practice yesterday in an attempt to wake them up. Actually, Chicago played outstanding in Vancouver and did not deserve to lose that one. They catch the Oilers returning home from a three-game trip and the only reason they won a game was because Devan Dubnyk played sick in Nashville. That whole game was played in Edmonton’s end of the rink. Anyway, this is all about backing the superior Blackhawks in a game that the coach and players know they have to win. Expect a similar effort to the one we saw in Vancouver and anything close to that and this one won’t be close. Play: Chicago -½ -101 (Risking 2.02 units to win 2).
Rocketman
Florida vs. South Carolina
Play: South Carolina +5
Florida is 2-11 ATS this year as a favorite. South Carolina is 10-3 SU at home this year where they are allowing only 64.2 points per game. South Carolina is 5-0 ATS overall vs Florida the past 3 years including 2-0 SU and ATS at home vs Florida past 3 seasons. Gators are 3-13 ATS in their last 16 games as a favorite. Gators are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as a road favorite. Gators are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games as a road favorite of 0.5-6.5. Gators are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as a favorite of 0.5-6.5. We'll recommend a small play on South Carolina tonight!
Wunderdog
Toledo vs. Ohio
Play: Toledo +16.5
The Toledo Rockets are just 4-19 on the season, and have yet to break through on the road where they are 0-11 for the season. While they have been a bad team, the oddsmakers often inflate the numbers to get action. The Rockets have responded with a 9-5 ATS mark in their last 14 taking doubles. This is an Ohio team that is below .500 for the season and not exactly burning up the court. They have been a 19-point dog, and never a favorite of more than 10, so this is a big number to conquer. The Bobcats sport a home-court disadvantage at 1-9 ATS in their last 10 played here. I'll take Toledo.
Joe Gavazzi
La Salle vs. St. Louis
PLay: La Salle +6½
It’s been another tough year for Rick Majerus who suffered the loss of his 2 best boys, Mitchell and Reed before the season began. At 8-14 SU, 7-12 ATS this young team continues to struggle. It’s hard to win by margins with patience and defense alone when you only average 61 PPG. Tonight they face a rejuvenated La Salle team who is playing with greater cohesion and intensity than at any time this season. Big men Murray and Williams will dominate the paint. La Salle has long played better on the road under seventh-year HC Giannini at 41-23 ATS. That include 3-1 ATS this year, where they have no road or neutral losses vs. Conference foes of more than 5 points. Home standing Bills just 6-5 SU this year on their home court.
Dave Price
1 Unit on Orlando Magic -1
The Magic are the more talented team in this matchup, and they will not take Philly lightly because of how tough the 76ers have played them this season. This is where I expect the Magic to flex their muscles. Over the last 3 seasons, the Magic have won 12 of 15 against Philly, including 6 of 7 on the road. Against teams with a losing record in the second half of the season, Orlando is a dominant 17-5 ATS the last 2 seasons. It is defeating these foes by an average score of 108.8 to 92.0. Take the Magic.
Info Plays
3* North Carolina +10
Reasons why North Carolina will cover:
1) Play on - road underdogs of 10 to 19.5 points (North Carolina) - off a blowout win by 20 points or more over a conference rival against opponent off 2 straight wins against conference rivals, as its 36-11 since 1997.
2) North Carolina is 8-0 ATS after 2 consecutive covers as a favorite over the last 3 seasons, and are 6-0 ATS in road games after 2 straight games with 19 or more assists over the last 3 seasons.
3) Duke is just 1-8 ATS in home games after successfully covering the spread in 2 or more consecutive games over the last 3 seasons.
Jack Jones
Cleveland Cavaliers -1
You're probably asking yourself the same question I asked myself this morning. Why are the Cleveland Cavaliers favored when they have lost 25 straight games? Your initial instinct is probably to take the Detroit Pistons. Not so fast. Cleveland is favored for a reason, and odds makers obviously believe this is where they put an end to the losing streak. The Cavaliers have been playing much better of late and have had several close losses, so they are primed to end this skid as they host the Pistons tonight.
"We're in the record books, we all know that, something we don't want to be a part of, but you can't go back and turn back the hands of time," said Antawn Jamison. "We've got to worry about moving forward. The most important thing is getting a win." The Cavaliers have come close to breaking through recently. Their last four losses are by a combined 21 points and they rallied from a 15-point deficit against the Mavericks before eventually coming up short 99-96 on the road last time out. Cleveland has won four straight and five of six at Quicken Loans Arena with Detroit. The Pistons are just 6-21 on the road this season, losing by 7.3 PPG. Take Cleveland Wednesday.
Steve Janus
2* Clippers +7.5
I think this is great opportunity to jump back on the Clippers at +7.5. New York is just 4-9 in their last 13 games, and really don't deserve to be favored by this much, especially with the way this team plays on the defensive end. New York has allowed the opposing team to score at least 100 points in 11 of those 13 games.
The Clippers aren't getting much respect after four straight losses and the fact that they are still without Eric Gordon, but their last four games have came against the likes of Chicago, Atlanta, Miami, and Orlando, four of the top five teams in the Eastern Conference!
The Knicks are just 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games as a favorite of 5.0-10.5, and only 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 vs. Western Conference.