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Free Picks: Service Plays for Wednesday, January 11

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DUNKEL INDEX

Oklahoma City at New Orleans
The Thunder look to build on their 6-0 ATS record in the last 6 meetings between the two teams. Oklahoma City is the pick (-7) according to Dunkel, which has the Thunder favored by 10. Dunkel Pick: Oklahoma City (-7)

Game 701-702: Atlanta at Indiana (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings:
Dunkel Line & Total:
Vegas Line & Total:
Dunkel Pick:

Game 703-704: Sacramento at Toronto (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Sacramento 111.023; Toronto 113.032
Dunkel Line & Total: Toronto by 2; 186
Vegas Line & Total: Toronto by 5; 189
Dunkel Pick: Sacramento (+5); Under

Game 705-706: Philadelphia at New York (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia 121.941; New York 120.416
Dunkel Line & Total: Philadelphia by 1 1/2; 190
Vegas Line & Total: New York by 4 1/2; 195 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (+4 1/2); Under

Game 707-708: Washington at Chicago (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Washington 108.721; Chicago 128.634
Dunkel Line & Total: Chicago by 20; 188
Vegas Line & Total: Chicago by 14; 180 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Chicago (-14); Over

Game 709-710: Oklahoma City at New Orleans (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Oklahoma City 122.134; New Orleans 112.171
Dunkel Line & Total: Oklahoma City by 10; 189
Vegas Line & Total: Oklahoma City by 7; 187
Dunkel Pick: Oklahoma City (-7); Over

Game 711-712: Dallas at Boston (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Dallas 118.073; Boston 121.807
Dunkel Line & Total: Boston by 3 1/2; 182
Vegas Line & Total: Boston by 5 1/2; 184
Dunkel Pick: Dallas (+5 1/2); Under

Game 713-714: Houston at San Antonio (8:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Houston 116.186; San Antonio 120.447
Dunkel Line & Total: San Antonio by 4 1/2; 200
Vegas Line & Total: San Antonio by 7; 198
Dunkel Pick: Houston (+7); Over

Game 715-716: New Jersey at Denver (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: New Jersey 110.292; Denver 123.730
Dunkel Line & Total: Denver by 13 1/2; 192
Vegas Line & Total: Denver by 12; 195
Dunkel Pick: Denver (-12); Under

Game 717-718: LA Lakers at Utah (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: LA Lakers 123.132; Utah 118.022
Dunkel Line & Total: LA Lakers by 5; 188
Vegas Line & Total: LA Lakers by 1 1/2; 185 1/2
Dunkel Pick: LA Lakers (-1 1/2);

Game 719-720: Orlando at Portland (10:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Orlando 122.140; Portland 124.077
Dunkel Line & Total: Portland by 2; 187
Vegas Line & Total: Portland by 3; 190
Dunkel Pick: Orlando (+3); Under

Game 721-722: Miami at LA Clippers (10:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings:
Dunkel Line & Total:
Vegas Line & Total:
Dunkel Pick:

NHL

New Jersey at Edmonton
The Oilers look to build on their 6-1 record in their last 7 games as a home underdog. Edmonton is the pick (-105) according to Dunkel, which has the Oilers favored by 1/2 a goal. Dunkel Pick: Edmonton (-105)

Game 1-2: Pittsburgh at Washington (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings:
Dunkel Line & Total:
Vegas Line & Total:
Dunkel Pick:

Game 3-4: New Jersey at Edmonton (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: New Jersey 10.857; Edmonton 11.204
Dunkel Line & Total: Edmonton by 1/2; 4
Vegas Line & Total: New Jersey (-115); 5
Dunkel Pick: Edmonton (-105); Under

 
Posted : January 11, 2012 8:58 am
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LSU at Alabama
The Tigers look to build on their 9-1 ATS record in their last 10 games against teams with a winning record. LSU is the pick (+11 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Crimson Tide favored by only 10. Dunkel Pick: LSU (+11 1/2)

Game 741-742: Northwestern at Michigan (6:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Northwestern 60.014; Michigan 73.756
Dunkel Line: Michigan by 13 1/2; 128
Vegas Line: Michigan by 8; 133
Dunkel Pick: Michigan (-8); Under

Game 743-744: St. John's at Marquette (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: St. John's 57.782; Marquette 69.820
Dunkel Line: Marquette by 12; 147
Vegas Line: Marquette by 13 1/2; 141 1/2
Dunkel Pick St. John's (+13 1/2); Over

Game 745-746: Syracuse at Villanova (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Syracuse 76.208; Villanova 65.855
Dunkel Line: Syracuse by 10 1/2; 153
Vegas Line: Syracuse by 9 1/2; 145
Dunkel Pick: Syracuse (-9 1/2); Over

Game 747-748: Rutgers at Pittsburgh (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Rutgers 57.136; Pittsburgh 66.794
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 9 1/2; 127
Vegas Line: Pittsburgh by 8 1/2; 133 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (-8 1/2); Under

Game 749-750: Northeastern at Hofstra (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Northeastern 50.168; Hofstra 52.088
Dunkel Line: Hofstra by 2; 136
Vegas Line: Hofstra by 4; 130
Dunkel Pick: Northeastern (+2); Over

Game 751-752: Rhode Island at George Washington (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Rhode Island 51.546; George Washington 55.177
Dunkel Line: George Washington by 3 1/2; 125
Vegas Line: George Washington by 7; 131 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Rhode Island (+7); Under

Game 753-754: Fordham at St. Joseph's (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Fordham 52.439; St. Joseph's 69.198
Dunkel Line: St. Joseph's by 17; 140
Vegas Line: St. Joseph's by 14 1/2; 133 1/2
Dunkel Pick: St. Joseph's (-14 1/2); Over

Game 755-756: Duquesne at Xavier (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Duquesne 62.472; Xavier 64.720
Dunkel Line: Xavier by 2 1/2; 142
Vegas Line: Xavier by 8; 147
Dunkel Pick: Duquesne (+8); Under

Game 757-758: Dayton at St. Bonaventure (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Dayton 60.565; St. Bonaventure 64.758
Dunkel Line: St. Bonaventure by 4; 131
Vegas Line: St. Bonaventure by 2 1/2; 128 1/2
Dunkel Pick: St. Bonaventure (-2 1/2); Over

Game 759-760: Wake Forest at Maryland (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Wake Forest 55.841; Maryland 56.820
Dunkel Line: Maryland by 1; 136
Vegas Line: Maryland by 5; 142 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Wake Forest (+5); Under

Game 761-762: Northern Illinois at Western Michigan (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Northern Illinois 39.667; Western Michigan 55.626
Dunkel Line: Western Michigan by 16; 134
Vegas Line: Western Michigan by 17 1/2; 127
Dunkel Pick: Northern Illinois (+17 1/2); Over

Game 763-764: Central Michigan at Eastern Michigan (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Central Michigan 50.396; Eastern Michigan 47.583
Dunkel Line: Central Michigan by 3; 110
Vegas Line: Central Michigan by 2; 111
Dunkel Pick: Central Michigan (-2); Under

Game 765-766: Akron at Bowling Green (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Akron 64.480; Bowling Green 56.238
Dunkel Line: Akron by 8; 139
Vegas Line: Akron by 2; 131 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Akron (-2); Over

Game 767-768: Buffalo at Ohio (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Buffalo 60.362; Ohio 63.308
Dunkel Line: Ohio by 3; 141
Vegas Line: Ohio by 7; 144
Dunkel Pick: Buffalo (+7); Under

Game 769-770: Miami (OH) at Kent State (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Miami (OH) 53.138; Kent State 60.494
Dunkel Line: Kent State by 7 1/2; 128
Vegas Line: Kent State by 11; 124 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Miami (OH) (+11); Over

Game 771-772: Houston at Central Florida (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Houston 54.224; Central Florida 66.031
Dunkel Line: Central Florida by 12; 129
Vegas Line: Central Florida by 10; 136
Dunkel Pick: Central Florida (-10); Under

Game 773-774: Charlotte at Massachusetts (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Charlotte 59.277; Massachusetts 60.713
Dunkel Line: Massachusetts by 1 1/2; 149
Vegas Line: Massachusetts by 5; 143 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Charlotte (+5); Over

Game 775-776: Southern Mississippi at Memphis (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Southern Mississippi 61.320; Memphis 70.328
Dunkel Line: Memphis by 9; 132
Vegas Line: Memphis by 7 1/2; 139
Dunkel Pick: South Carolina (+4); Under

Game 777-778: William & Mary at Towson (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: William & Mary 44.110; Towson 39.169
Dunkel Line: William & Mary by 5; 124
Vegas Line: William & Mary by 3 1/2; 119 1/2
Dunkel Pick: William & Mary (-3 1/2); Over

Game 779-780: Old Dominion at Delaware (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Old Dominion 57.518; Delaware 56.146
Dunkel Line: Old Dominion by 1 1/2; 122
Vegas Line: Pick; 126 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Old Dominion; Under

Game 781-782: Kentucky at Auburn (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Kentucky 75.156; Auburn 59.351
Dunkel Line: Kentucky by 16; 131
Vegas Line: Kentucky by 18; 135 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Auburn (+18); Under

Game 783-784: Marshall at UAB (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Marshall 61.922; UAB 58.135
Dunkel Line: Marshall by 4; 127
Vegas Line: Marshall by 2 1/2; 119 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Marshall (-2 1/2); Over

Game 785-786: Arkansas at Mississippi (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Arkansas 61.640; Mississippi 64.223
Dunkel Line: Mississippi by 2 1/2; 132
Vegas Line: Mississippi by 1; 139
Dunkel Pick: Mississippi (-1); Under

Game 787-788: Missouri at Iowa State (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Missouri 71.117; Iowa State 68.715
Dunkel Line: Missouri by 2 1/2; 156
Vegas Line: Missouri by 4; 151 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Iowa State (+4); Over

Game 789-790: UTEP at Tulsa (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: UTEP 59.001; Tulsa 60.259
Dunkel Line: Tulsa by 1 1/2; 127
Vegas Line: Tulsa by 6; 124
Dunkel Pick: UTEP (+6); Over

Game 791-792: Rice at SMU (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Rice 55.613; SMU 59.137
Dunkel Line: SMU by 3 1/2; 122
Vegas Line: SMU by 2; 125
Dunkel Pick: SMU (-2); Under

Game 793-794: Penn State at Nebraska (8:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Penn State 54.982; Nebraska 61.602
Dunkel Line: Nebraska by 6 1/2; 118
Vegas Line: Nebraska by 5; 114 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Nebraska (-5); Over

Game 795-796: Kansas at Texas Tech (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas 71.689; Texas Tech 59.872
Dunkel Line: Kansas by 12; 131
Vegas Line: Kansas by 14 1/2; 134
Dunkel Pick: Texas Tech (+14 1/2); Under

Game 797-798: Texas A&M at Texas (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Texas A&M 59.994; Texas 68.922
Dunkel Line: Texas by 9; 128
Vegas Line: Texas by 10 1/2; 122 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Texas A&M (+10 1/2); Over

Game 799-800: Georgia Tech at NC State (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Georgia Tech 55.799; NC State 68.267
Dunkel Line: NC State by 12 1/2; 134
Vegas Line: NC State 9 1/2; 138
Dunkel Pick: NC State (-9 1/2); Under

Game 801-802: Temple at St. Louis (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Temple 63.136; St. Louis 72.529
Dunkel Line: St. Louis by 9 1/2; 123
Vegas Line: St. Louis by 7 1/2; 130
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (-7 1/2); Under

Game 803-804: LSU at Alabama (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: LSU 62.526; Alabama 72.685
Dunkel Line: Alabama by 10; 124
Vegas Line: Alabama by 11 1/2; 117 1/2
Dunkel Pick: LSU (+11 1/2); Over

Game 805-806: Denver at Colorado State (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Denver 59.788; Colorado State 59.642
Dunkel Line: Even; 122
Vegas Line: Colorado State by 3 1/2; 127 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Denver (+3 1/2); Under

Game 807-808: Morehead State at Tennessee State (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Morehead State 48.024; Tennessee State 54.621
Dunkel Line: Tennessee State by 6 1/2; 137
Vegas Line: Tennessee State by 4 1/2; 130 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Tennessee State (-4 1/2); Over

 
Posted : January 11, 2012 8:58 am
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Marc Lawrence

Rice at SMU
Play: SMU

The 9-7 Owls are a wide-awake 8-1 SU against non lined-opposition but just a sleepy 1-6 SU and 2-5 ATS versus lined foes this season. All of which make us a bit leery of this 2-returning starter team that went 14-18 in 2010, yet somehow managed to knock off SMU in the first round of the Conference USA tourney last season? the same 20-win Mustangs team that advanced all the way to the semi-finals of the CIT tournament last season. SMU supporters will be happy to know that .500 or greater teams seeking last-season conference tourney revenge against Rice are 8-1 SU and 7-2 ATS. And with Ben Braun?s Owls off a double-revenger with Marshall ? and just 1-6 SU and 2-4-1 ATS in games following with the Herd ? expect Rice to get fried in their first conference road game of the season here tonight. We recommend a 1-unit play on SMU.

 
Posted : January 11, 2012 8:59 am
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Rob Vinciletti

Arkansas vs. Mississippi
Play: Mississippi -1

Ole Miss is 11-1 at home when the total is 135 to 139.5 and 26-9 ats vs teams who score 77 or more points per game. When they are a home favorite of -3 or less they are 7-2. They have dominated this series here at home vs Arkansas covering 12 of the last 13. Arkansas is a mediocre 6-18 straight up and ats as a road dog of 3 or less and 0-4 straight up on the road when the total is 135 to 139.5. In the second half of the season the last 3 years they have dropped 16 of 23 vs winning teams. Look for Ole Miss to get the win here. Lay the small number.

 
Posted : January 11, 2012 8:59 am
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David Chan

Atlanta @ Indiana
PICK: Under

It may come as a surprise to some, but Indiana has in fact been one of the better defensive teams this year.

But the Pacers stumbled on Monday to the 76ers, losing 96-86.

Note though that Indiana holds teams to an average of just 90-points so far this year.

In fact, it held its previous two opponents, Charlotte and Boston, to an average of just 75.5 points:

“We didn’t defend at a high enough level,” coach Frank Vogel said after the loss to Philadelphia.

And the Pacers are even more tenacious on the defensive side of the floor at Conseco Field House, holding opponents to under 83 PPG.

The Hawks are coming off a 106-101 win at New Jersey on Monday; suffice to say, I expect Atlanta to come in a bit complacent, looking ahead to its game the following night vs. Charlotte.

Danny Granger and Tyler Hansbrough are questionable for the Pacers.

The Hawks will be without Marvin Williams for a second straight game.

I believe all signs point to a low-scoring affair; how about you?!

 
Posted : January 11, 2012 9:00 am
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Sean Murphy

New Jersey Devils @ Edmonton Oilers
PICK: New Jersey Devils

The Devils got crushed by the Flames in Calgary last night, falling behind 4-0 after just one period.

Let's not get too down on New Jersey however, as it was in a typical letdown spot, following back-to-back wins, including a 3-1 victory as a +166 underdog in Pittsburgh on Saturday night.

The Devils remain a solid 11-6 over their last 17 games, and have held their own on the road this season, going 12-10-1.

The Oilers got off to a surprisingly hot start this season, but it's been all downhill from there. Edmonton's free-fall continues, as its dropped three games in a row and 17 of its last 21 overall.

This is a particularly tough spot for the young Oilers, as they return home following a long 1-6 road trip. While home cooking has served them well to a certain extent, they're in tough here, with an undermanned squad. Jordan Eberle and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins are among those sidelined for Edmonton right now.

We should see a strong response from the Devils in this spot, much like we did when they followed up an ugly 6-1 loss to the Bruins with a 5-2 win over the Panthers last week.

The last time New Jersey traveled to Edmonton back in March of 2010, it was listed as a favorite north of -200 (and lost). I expect a different result here, and we can get behind them at a much more reasonable price.

 
Posted : January 11, 2012 9:01 am
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Jim Feist

Miami Heat vs Los Angeles Clippers
Pick: Los Angeles Clippers

The Miami Heat still have that bullseye on their backs, but they are playing well. But this is a bad situational spot, all the way to the West Coast to face a talented young up and coming team that will be sky high for this showdown. The home team is 7-0 ATS in the last 7 meetings between these teams and the Heat is just 2-5 ATS in the last 7 meetings in Los Angeles. Look for a huge effort by the home team in an early statement game for the franchise. Play the LA Clippers.

 
Posted : January 11, 2012 9:01 am
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JR O'Donnell

NJ Nets +12.5

Back to the Nasty NBA Dogs here. The New Jersey will not be the popular side here guys as the Nuggets a re on a 2 game slide. The Denver Nuggets are banged up & these visitors will some how stay with in the 12.5 as the public ((65%)) on the Nuggets get squashed tonight in Colorado. Nene and Lawson are hurt and these Nuggets Win But NO COVER HERE by the home town boys. Power rated at Denver - 7.88 points. Nets get our edge on the Boards and from the charity stripe.

 
Posted : January 11, 2012 9:04 am
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David Banks

Heat / Clippers Over

Big time talent will take to the pro hardwood on Wednesday night when LeBron James and the Miami Heat invade Tinseltown to battle Blake Griffin and the Los Angeles Clippers; tip-off from the Staples Center is set to go live on ESPN at 10:30 ET.

Though Miami has been forced to deal with a multitude of injuries, the Heat enter their Tuesday night tussle at Golden State the lone team with just one loss to start the year. That came in a home game with Atlanta back on January 2nd, but was quickly avenged three nights later when Miami ousted the Hawks 116-109 in overtime. Unfortunately, that loss came with a price when Dwyane Wade aggravated a foot injury thats forced him to ride the pine throughout the Heats current three-game SU & ATS winning streak; Mario Chalmers has since stepped up in his absence, and both LBJ and Chris Bosh are also on personal tears. Miami has won all five of its road games against Dallas, Charlotte, Minnesota, Atlanta, and New Jersey by an average of 6.4 PPG and stands 3-2 versus the closing pointspread. Miami possess the top overall scoring attack in the league (#1 at 108.3 PPG), but its defense has left much to be desired.

While most teams have nine if not 10 games played under the belts, the Clippers are one of the few teams that have yet to feel the effects of a ridiculous schedule to start the season. Head Coach Vinny Del Negros outfit has only partook in six games heading into Tuesday nights trip to Portland, and all but two of those games had been played in the comfy confines of the Staples Center. Since dropping two of their first three games, the Clip-Joint has rattled off three straight wins as hosts (2-1 ATS) beating the likes of Portland, Houston, and Milwaukee. In all, CP3 and his mates check in 2-2 SU & ATS as a host on the year. LAs 99.7 PPG (#6) and 47.9 percent shooting percentage (#2) should have no problem picking apart a surprisingly suspect Miami defense that's allowed its opponents to score an average of 96.6 PPG (#24) on the year.

These teams split their two meetings a year ago with the home teams holding serve. The Clippers won the first meeting 111-105 as seven-point underdogs, but the Heat fired back with a 97-79 trouncing as 11.5-point chalk in the second go round. Miami has done exceptionally well against the Pacific Division going 36-14-2 ATS in the L/52 overall meetings, but has only covered two of its L/7 trips against the Clippers at Staples. LA has failed to cover each of its L/6 against the Eastern Conference, but has stepped up to the plate at home against +.500 opposition going 16-7 ATS the L/23 times. The home team has covered each of the L/7 in these teams recent series with the over going 9-2 in the L/11 overall clashes.

 
Posted : January 11, 2012 10:58 am
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Craig Trapp

Orlando Magic vs. Portland Trail Blazers
Play: Orlando Magic +3

One of the best homecourts over last few years is in Portland and this year is no different with PORT 6-0 at home straight up. ORL is a finesse team that will really struggle with the physical nature that PORT plays. PORT is playing in a back to back but it was fairly easy winner last night and with deep bench they should have no problem. 4 star play on Trailblazers

 
Posted : January 11, 2012 11:01 am
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NHL Predictions

Washington Capitals -125

The Penguins recent struggles continued last night with a 5-1 loss at home against the Senators. Pittsburgh has lost 5 straight games, and have only scored 6 goals over those 5 games. During that 5 game span the Penguins are also allowing an average of 3.60 goals against. The Penguins are just 10-9-2 on the road this season, and without three of their top players (Staal, Crosby, Letang) they have their hands full against on of the league’s best home teams. The Washington Capitals are 21-17-2 on the year, but 14-5-1 at home. After winning 4 straight the Capitals have dropped their last 2 in Los Angeles and San Jose. The Capitals are 6-1 in their last 7 home games. They are averaging 3.25 goals per game at home, while allowing just 2.50 against per game. We can expect Marc-Andre Fleury and Tomas Vokoun in net tonight, who have similar numbers. Fluery is 8-7 on the road this season, while Vokoun is 11-3 at home. Take note that the Penguins are just 7-20 in their last 27 vs a team with a winning record. These two teams have split their meetings this season, both winning at home, but the Capitals have won 8 of their last 10 meetings. Despite a few injuries themselves (Backstrom and Green questionable) the Capitals are a great home team, and are facing a slumping and injured Penguins team who lost at home last night. I’ll take the Caps at home with generous odds tonight.

 
Posted : January 11, 2012 11:32 am
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Jack Jones

Indiana Pacers -2½

The Indiana Pacers are showing awesome value tonight as small home favorite over the Atlanta Hawks. I'll pull the trigger on an underrated Pacers team that has yet to lose at home this year. The only reason they are a small favorite tonight is because they are coming off a bad road loss.

Indiana has managed to open 6-3 this season despite playing six of their first nine games on the road. They are coming off a 10-point road loss at Philadelphia, which really isn't a bad loss considering how well the 76ers have played in the early going. The Pacers are 3-0 at home this season, outscoring opponents by 13.7 points/game.

While I believe the Pacers are underrated this year, I also feel that the Hawks are a bit overrated right now due to their 7-3 start. This is a team that did not do much in the offseason, whereas the Pacers brought in several key players, including David West and George Hill. Indiana is the definition of a "team" with seven players averaging double-digits scoring.

This play falls into a system that is 58-24 (70.7%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet on home teams (INDIANA) - off a road loss by 10 points or more, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a winning record. The Pacers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a S.U. loss. The favorite is 15-3 ATS in the last 18 meetings, and the home team is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings. Bet Indiana Wednesday.

 
Posted : January 11, 2012 12:39 pm
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Steve Janus

Michigan -7½

My money is on the Wolverines to take care of business and hand Northwestern a big loss tonight. This might seem like a lot of points to lay in a conference game, but the Wolverines are a perfect 10-0 at home this season, winning by an average score of 68-52.

Northwestern is a solid team, as they come into this game with a 11-4 overall record, but the wheels have started to fall off. The Wildcats are just 1-3 in their last four games, including two ugly losses at Creighton and Ohio State.

The last time Northwestern played was last Wednesday. Rest is a good thing, but too much rest tends to lead to sluggish play in the first game back, especially on the road against a superior team. The Wildcats haven't exactly stacked up well against the top teams, as they are a dismal 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.

Michigan is a ridiculous 22-6 ATS in their last 28 games overall, 14-3 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games over the last 2 seasons, and 10-3 ATS in their last 13 home games.

 
Posted : January 11, 2012 12:41 pm
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SPORTS WAGERS

New Jersey +12½ over DENVER

The Nets won their opener but have lost eight of nine since and thus, their stock is extremely low. We're always in the market to buy low and it appears as though the Nets are being offered an inflated price here. The Nets are a lot moire competitive than they're getting credit for. Four of their starting five are capable of putting up 15-20 points a night. Deron Williams is one of the best PG's in the league and cn get them the ball. He's coming off a 15-point, 14 assist game against Atlanta. The Nuggets are 6-4 and they have a lot of upside. For instance, Andre Miller, Rudy Fernandez, Corey Brewer, Al Harrington and Chris Andersen are Denver's second five. Another reason to expect Denver to do exceptionally well at home is that the combination of altitude and pace is going to wreak havoc on exhausted teams sucking wind in the Mile High altitude. They have no stars but they have plenty of depth. Still, with the Heat on deck and more focus on them, this is certainly a game the Nuggets could overlook. In terms of situational plays, this one sets up nicely for an easily overlooked guest. Play: New Jersey +12½ (Risking 2.12 units to win 2).

Sacramento +4½/+165 over TORONTO

As an exhausted team playing its fifth game in six days, the Raptors went into Washington last night and lost by 15. It was the Wizards first win of the year. Toronto has now lost three of its last four games by 12 or more, including a 12-point home loss to the Nets. Now the Raps will play its third game in three days and its sixth game since last Wednesday. To make matters worse, it's also the third time in three days that they'll travel to its next destination. For elite teams, this would be a difficult assignment but for a team that was projected to win between 15-18 games, it's a daunting one at best. The Kings were whacked in Philly last night. They're 0-4 on the road with its closest margin of defeat being 17 points. At some point, Sacramento is going to put forth a solid road effort because they're better than recent form indicates. This is a great opportunity to do exactly that against a Raptors team that is subpar under the best of circumstances. Kings take this one outright. Play: Sacramento +165 (Risking 1 unit).

Washington +13 over CHICAGO

The Bulls will be playing this one under the most difficult of situations that we've seen in a long, long time. Consider that Chicago will be playing its sixth game in the span of seven days. They played in Minnesota last night and after building a 24-point lead they found the game tied with less than two minutes left in the third quarter. They eventually won by 11 but they used up lots of energy to get there. The Bulls will also be playing the tail end of three games in three days and they traveled in all three. In fact, the Bulls have traveled six times since last Wednesday. Incredible. The Wizards finally got into the win column last night after opening the year 0-8. One win does wonders to a team's psyche and while we're not going to try and make a case for the Wizards, we are taking a strong position on the situation, which is nearly an impossible one for the Bulls. Chicago also has the Celtics on deck Friday night. Wizards could actually pull off the upset here. Play: Washington +13 (Risking 2.2 units to win 2).

 
Posted : January 11, 2012 12:41 pm
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Posts: 318493
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MATT FARGO

Wake Forest @ Maryland
PICK: Maryland -4.5

This is a great number for Maryland as we catch two teams off two completely different outcomes. Wake Forest is coming off a win at home against Virginia Tech which was considered an upset as the Demon Deacons were 6.5-point home underdogs in that spot. Maryland meanwhile is coming off a loss at NC State Sunday but it was a much closer than expected game as the Terrapins lost by just five points as 10.5-point underdogs. Those results are giving value in the home team.

Maryland is playing much better basketball than it started the season with as it had won seven straight games prior to the loss on Sunday. Granted the wins did come against some lesser opposition but this team is a different unit right now. Alex Len, a 7-foot-1 freshman from the Ukraine, was declared eligible just before the New Year and he is helping right away by averaging 13.5 ppg and 8.8 rpg through four games. He gives Maryland a much needed boost inside.

Also in the mix is point guard Pe'Shon Howard who is averaging 6.8 ppg but more importantly, 5.2 apg through his first five games since returning from a broken foot. Maryland is shooting better over this stretch and it is defending better as well as opponents are shooting only 40.7 percent from the floor over the past five games. The rebounding has taken a big upturn as Maryland is outrebounding opponents by 9.4 rpg over the last five games.

Wake Forest is a surprising 2-1 on the road but it was blasted in the only game against real competition, a 14-point loss at Seton Hall. This is a definite letdown spot for the Demon Deacons and they are 3-11 ATS in their last 14 games following a game where they covered the spread. Maryland meanwhile is 19-9 ATS in its last 28 games following a straight up loss. The Terrapins easily won both meetings last season and we should see another relatively easy one here.

 
Posted : January 11, 2012 12:42 pm
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