BRYAN POWER
Philadelphia @ New
Pick: Philadelphia +4
Why is New York favored here? Oh, that's right, because they are New York. Granted, they have the home court edge, but right now there's no denying this Sixers team, which has won and covered six straight. Depth and defense, two foreign words in Madison Square Garden under Mike D'Antoni, have been the primary reasons for Philly's winning run. They are #1 in the league in scoring differential at a remarkable +16.0. Only the Heat and Bulls are within seven points of that number. The 76ers will not be scared of this venue considering they've won here four of the last six visits. The Knicks have been lousy against the spread this season, covering only two of nine games. This is a classic case of undervalued vs. overvalued. Go w/ the former (and the team that's playing better).
Tony George
Iowa State +4.5
Let this line creep up, as it has moved up from 4 in 2 books already by 10 AM today. Missouri is a horrific road team. One of the reasons they fired a good coach last year. Their last road game as a fav was against Kansas State and they got a woodshed ass kicking by 16 points. Mizzou a good team but lack size and again they are out-sized by a good Iowa State team off back to back wins at home and on the road against Texas ansd Texas AM. ISU is very tough at home, and can trade punches on the scoreboard here and I feel grab some easy points in the paint on the offensive glass. Mizzou has covered just 16 out of their last 55 road games, unreal. Not ready to lay points with them on the road against a team who can out rebound them and have good players and are well coached. Down to the wire game. Bear in mind Iowa State is 12-3 team.
WUNDERDOG
Atlanta at Indiana
Pick: Under 183
The Pacers were overmatched vs. a talented Miami team and allowed the Heat to burn them for 188, but all others have failed to reach the century mark. The Pacers have been perfect at 3-0 at home allowing just 80ppg. Atlanta is never in a hurry and a pair of overtime games has built the total points in their games. They have piled up the points on the road vs. the weaker teams but, as usual, have struggled to score in their last 38 in this situation, while the Hawks slowed down on the road vs. the better teams at 5-0 to the UNDER vs a winning team. Play on the UNDER.
Dave Price
1 Unit Boston Celtics -5
The Celtics hold the advantage because they have had 4 days to rest up and prepare for this game while the Mavs just played last night. Rest is very important to this veteran Boston squad, which will be fresh enough to put forth one of its best defensive efforts of the season. The Celtics are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games when playing on 3 or more days' rest.
Black Widow
1* San Antonio Spurs -7
The San Antonio Spurs have been simply unstoppable at home this year. I like their chances to cover this spread and win by double-digits Wednesday night against the Houston Rockets. The Spurs are 6-0 SU & 4-2 ATS at home this season, outscoring opponents 104.8 to 90.7 or by an average of 14.1 points/game. Considering Houston's road woes this year, I wouldn't be surprised to see the Spurs win by 14-plus again tonight. The Rockets are 1-5 SU & 1-5 ATS on the road this season, getting outscored 92.0 to 103.5 or by an average of 11.5 points/game. These numbers are simply too hard to ignore, and the safe bet tonight is on the home favorite Spurs. Take San Antonio and lay the points.
Jimmy Boyd
1 Unit New Orleans Hornets +7
The Hornets return home with some nice momentum on their side following an impressive 13-point win in Denver. That confidence-boosting victory will have New Orleans ready to give the fatigued Thunder a game tonight. The Thunder have won 4 in a row (in a 5-day span) and should show the effects of playing so many games in so few nights here. They had a tough one in Memphis last night, which opens them up to a potential letdown against a rested Hornets squad that has either won or lost by 6 points or less in 14 of the last 16 in this series. The Thunder haven't put away anyone on the road this season. None of their 4 road victories have come by more than 5 points. We'll take the points.
Jeff Alexander
1 Unit on Missouri -4
Had Missouri won at K-State in its last game, we might have been looking at a letdown tonight. The fact it was beaten by double digits plays right into our hands. Playing on road teams as a favorite or pickem off a road loss by 10 points or more, with all five starters returning from last season, has produced a phenomenal 30-9 ATS record the last 5 seasons. These teams have been favored by an average of 4.5 points and have won by an average of 8.7. The Cyclones have dropped 28 of their last 29 against Top 25 foes, losing the last 7 by an average of 15.0 points. Take the Tigers.
SPORTS WAGERS
New Jersey +101 over EDMONTON
Perhaps the Devils 6-3 loss in Calgary last night was the best thing that could've happened in terms of us getting a sweet price on them today. Fact is, that loss last night was one of the most misleading scores of the year. The Flames scored six goals on 14 shots and had Marty Brodeur not been pulled earlier, Johan Hedberg would have been pulled. The Devils were swarming all game Hedberg commented afterwards on how he was awful and cost his team the game. He'll get a chance to redeem himself here, as he's the confirmed starter. New Jersey rarely loses two in a row. It's only happened four times this season and as long as Hedberg holds his own, they won't lose to this vastly inferior team, especially after getting smoked 6-3 but one inferior team yesterday. Play: New Jersey +101 (Risking 2 units).
SPORTS WAGERS
MARQUETTE -13½ over St. John's
The Johnny's are a respectable 8-7 overall and 2-2 in the conference but against quality teams, they virtually have no shot. The Golden Eagles shot out of the gate with a 10-0 record and everyone took notice. The Red Storm has played five ranked teams so far and they're 0-5 in those games. Three of those were at home. In their two road games against ranked teams they lost by 22 and 14 points respectively. St. John's is a team that shoots a lot of low percentage shots with a lot or poor shooters taking them. They rank 203rd in the country in points per game and that's after playing at least eight cuopcakes, William & Mary, Lehigh, UMBC, St. Francis, Northeastern, Detroit, Fordham and Texas Pan Am. Now the Johnny's have the unenviable task of playing in Marquette after the Golden Eagles lost two on the road against #9 Georgetown and #1 Syracuse. Marquette opened the year 10-0. They won in Wisconsin and they've blown out every weak team they've played at the Bradley Center. The Red Storm are another weak team that is the Eagles next victim. Play: #744 Marquette -13½ (Risking 2.02 units to win 2).
We're also playing the following games:
Buffalo +7 over OHIO
Play: Buffalo +7 (Risking 2.1 units to win 2).
TENNESSEE ST. -5½ over Moreland State
Play: Tennessee St -5½ (Risking 2.1 units to win 2).
Larry Ness
Ohio -7
Buffalo visits Athens, Ohio to take on the Bobcats. Ohio U was 'knocking on the door' of the top-25 not long ago, opening the year 12-1, having lost to only Louisville, 59-54 as 16-point underdogs (Ohio U actually led late in that game!). However, at 12-1 and with just a final 'tune up' prior to the opening of league play, the Bobcats lost 70-67 at home vs Robert Morris ('Cats shot 35.3%, including 3-of-26 on threes). Ohio then opened MAC play by losing 67-57 at Bowling Green last Saturday, as the Falcons shot 52.2% while once again, the Bobcats were futile from three-point range (4-of-20). Buffalo edged Kent St in its MAC opener 66-65 to move to 8-4 overall on the season. Buffalo's 6-6 McCrea came off the bench last year but he starts now and leads the team by averaging 17.5 PPG and 7.7 RPG. He's joined in the starting lineup by the 6-10 Watt (15.3-7.8), swingman Barnett (7.2-6.1) plus guards Filzen (13.8) and Oldham (4.5-4.5-6.5). The Bulls don't have much of a bench but then neither do the Bobcats. After nine straight wins, the Bobcats are now 12-3 after those back-to-back losses. However, the team can't possibly continue to shoot as poorly as it did in those two defeats (36.7%, including 15.2% on threes), after the team was shooting 45.5% overall, including 37.4% on threes, in its first 13 games. Guard Cooper (14.1-4.0-6.3) is joined by Offutt (11.3-4.0), an Ohio St transfer, plus Kellogg (8.5) in the starting backcourt. A pair of 6-8 players, Baltic (11.1-5.2) and Keely (9.7-5.5) will have to contend with McCrea and Watt inside. The Bulls are never an 'easy out,' but off back-to-back losses, this is a game I expect Ohio U to win (and cover)!
Teddy Covers
Dayton at St. Bonaventure
Play: St. Bonaventure -3.5
Dayton has gotten off to a tremendous start in Atlantic-10 play, knocking off heavyweights Saint Louis and Temple in its first two conference games. But the injury bug has bitten the Flyers hard, leaving them extremely short handed for their trip to St Bonnie's tonight. Last week, Dayton lost big man Josh Benson for the season with a knee injury. Benson was second on the team in scoring, third in rebounding and the only legitimate shot-blocker on the roster. Now they've lost Chris Johnson to a concussion in practice on Monday, another key low post contributor: third on the team in scoring and second in rebounding. A third key low post contributor, Luke Fabrizius, suffered a fractured nose at Temple over the weekend, and will have to play with a mask for the first time in his career tonight. That leaves the Flyers with only eight healthy scholarship players in their rotation tonight, a very short-handed team. St Bonnie's can exploit Dayton's low post weakness tonight with one of the best big men in the conference, Andrew Nicholson, who should be able to pound away down low. Coming off a poorly played loss at Duquesne, this is a solid bounce back opportunity for the hungry and talented Bonnies against an injury riddled foe who they match up very well against.
Andrew Lange
Kentucky at Auburn
Play: Auburn +18
Even though Kentucky is a completely different team from a year ago, the make-up of the team is very similar – a load of talent and not a lot of experience. Going on the road with freshmen can be difficult on any team and Kentucky is no exception. Last season, the Wildcats went 2-6 SU on the highway in SEC play – a group that was two points from playing for the National Championship. Despite back-to-back horrendous road showings (29-point loss to Florida State and 30-point loss to Vanderbilt), I trust that Auburn is going to play much better at home against an opponent that won't be difficult to get up for. The Tigers weren't very good last season yet in SEC play, their home losses were by margins of 7, 5, 10, 13, 17 and 2. Over the past week we've seen both Georgia Tech (vs. Duke) and Illinois (vs. Ohio State) perform better than they have all season – at home vs. a top rated opponent. With a huge margin to work with, we'll take a shot with the home underdog.
Rocketman
Texas A&M @ Texas
Play: Texas A&M +12
Texas A&M is allowing only 57.5 points per game overall this year. Aggies are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 Wednesday games. Aggies are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games following a SU loss of more than 20 points. Aggies are 35-17 ATS in their last 52 games following a SU loss. Longhorns are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games following a ATS loss. Longhorns are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 home games. Longhorns are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 games overall. Longhorns are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games following a SU win. Longhorns are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Longhorns are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games vs. a team with a winning SU record. Longhorns are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. We'll recommend a small play on Texas A&M tonight!
John Ryan
Lakers vs. Jazz
Play: Over 184
My proprietary sports handicapping database and simulator shows a high probability that more than 190 points will be scored in this game. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 29-10 ‘over’ for 74% since 2006. Play ‘over’ with road teams played in January where the total is between 180 and 189.5 points that are poor three point shooting teams making less than 33% of their three point attempts. Now, for those who like daily action you will enjoy charting this system that has gone an amazing 1206-946 for 56% winners and has made a whopping 165.4 units per one unit wagered since 1996. Play ‘over’ with any team in a game involving two, poor three point shooting teams making less than 33% of their three point shot attempts. Lakers have a significant edge in rebounding and the simulator shows a high probability that they will have a minimum of four more rebounds than Utah. In past games, Utah is 24-7 ‘OVER’ when they grab 4 to 9 fewer rebounds than their opponents in a game over the last three seasons. Take the ‘over’.
Jeff Scott Sports
4 UNIT PLAYS
Kansas / Texas Tech Over 134: This is a rather OU line for this series, as the last 5 meetings between these teams has had an OU line of at least 145.5. Granted the OU is 2-3 in those 5 games, but these teams have still combined for 152.6 ppg. Texas Tech did score bit more the last few tear and Kansas' defense hasn't been as strong as it is this year, but i still see this one heading over the total. Kansas comes in averaging 75.1 ppg on the year and they are 34th in the nation in shooting (48%). Tonight they take on a Tech team that looks, on paper, like they have played defense well, but let's dig a little shall we. The Red Raiders have allowed just 65.6 ppg on the year, but in their 10 lined games they have allowed 69.6 ppg, with 6 of those 10 opponents putting up at least 70 points on them, plus they have allowed 140 points in their 2 Big 12 games. On Offense the Red Raiders have been average as they have put up 66.7. but they shoot the ball well as they are23rd in the nation in shooting (48.4%), plus they are 43rd from long range (38.5) and they hit their FT's as well (71.5%.). The Kansas defense is really playing well this year, but I feel that Tech will find a way to put enough points on the board for this one to go OvER the total. KEY TREND--- TEXAS TECH is 28-11 OVER in home games after one or more consecutive overs since 1997. This play has produced an average of 145.9 ppg.
Arkansas Pk over MISSISSIPPI: Looks to me like 40 minutes of hell is back in Arkansas. Even though the Hogs have been playing much of the season without Marshawn Powell who suffered a knee injury early on and is out of the rest of the campaign, Young (14.8 ppg), Wade (11.3 ppg) and Rickey Scott (10.3 ppg) have done their best to take up the slack and keep the team on track with better than 78 ppg thus fa, while on defense they have held their opponents to just 38.8 percent shooting from the floor and a resulting 65.5 ppg. This is a team that has been doing it on both ends of the floor. The Rebels defensive numbers are comparable to that of Arkansas, as they have allowed just 63.7 ppg on 39.5% shooting, but the problem for the Rebels in this one will be at the offensive end of the floor. the Rebels have averaged 65.5 ppg on 41.9% shooting overall this year, but in their last 4 games they failed to put more than 56 points on the board and have shot just 36.7 % over that stretch. That's not gonna get it done here vs this Hogs. Arkansas is 0-2 in their 2 true road games but 7 straight home wins has helped this team build confidence and they are ready for this one. Ole miss is off 26 point loss at the hands of a less talented (than Arky) LSU squad and they just don't have nearly enough offense to pull this one.
3 UNIT PLAYS
St John's +13.5 over MARQUETTE: I have had a good pulse on the Golden Eagles and it all started back in Hawaii, when my only loss in picking their games was in the Championship game vs Norfolk State. 7-1 now in Marquette plays. Let's keep it going tonight. I see this as a flat spot for Marquette as they are coming off BB road losses vs Syracuse and Georgetown and then they have a home date with Pitt on deck. Great spot to go against them here. St Johns has been inconsistent this year, but this young team has been playing better of late as they have gone 4-2 in their last 6 games, which has included a 24 point win over Providence (an we know what they did last night), plus a road win over Cincinnati in their last game. They did lose by 14 to UConn and 15 to Louisville, but they did play very well in the second half of both games and that shows that this team is not giving up and they are playing a full 40 minutes. Marquette does get a solid edge on offense, but St John's have played better defense of late, as they have allowed just 69.5 ppg in their 4 Big East games, while Marquette has allowed 74.3 ppg in their 4 big East games. The Red Storm have played hard for the full 40 minutes this year and that may be hard for Marquette do in this one, especially coming of those two tough road games, while having one eye to Pitt on deck. Marquette by no more than 8 in this one.
LSU +12 over ALABAMA: Google News Play. Emotion plays a big role in sports, especially college sports, where wins an losses deal with school pride rather than dollars and cents (Reason why I like college sports better than the pros). Emotion can have a good or bad effect on a team and tonight I feel it will work against the Tide and for the Tigers. Monday night the LSU Tigers were really humiliated in the BCS Title game by the Tide so you can expect their hoops team to come out and give it their all as they look for revenge. For the Tide emotion will not be so good as i'm sure this team has been partying right along with their football and may not be focused for this one. OK Emotion or not this is still a tough LSU team with a defense that is more than capable of keeping this one close. Alabama's offense is average and they have won their last 4 by 18.5 ppg, but when faced with a tough defense like this one and their inability to hit the three or put up a ton of points will not allow allow them to pull away. The point guard matchup puts two very quick and talented underclassmen head to head. With Hamilton and Mitchell battling inside, this should be a very physical competition. Just like when the schools met earlier this week, nothing will come easy for either offense and LSU's defense will allow them to keep it close here.
Denver/ Colorado State Under 128: Neither of these teams like to get out and run as Denver is 344th in the nation in shots per game (47.1), while Colorado State is 319th (49.9). The Rams come in averaging 79.6 ppg in their last 5 games, but for real they have played very poor defenses in that stretch, while the only defense that they played in the five games that was any good (UTEP, 84th in points allowed) they were only able to score just 56 points. Well Denver has an even better defense than that as they come in having allowed just 59.2 ppg, which is 24th in the nation, while they have allowed just 50 points in each odf their last 2 games. Denver on offense is just like watching paint dry as they are 344th in shots take and have averaged 66.5 ppg. They do shoot well though, hitting 47.9% of their shots, but I don't see them getting enough shots tonight for that to be a factor. This will be a slow grind it out game and, while CSU does't play defense all to well they will come up with enough stops to keep this one right around 120.
2 UNIT PLAYS
Temple/ St Louis Over 131: TEMPLE is 9-1 OVER when playing against a team with a winning record this season and 20-8 OVER after having won 5 or 6 of their last 7 games over the last 2 seasons.
Central Michigan -2 over EASTERN MICHIGAN: E MICHIGAN is 4-13 ATS versus good ball handling teams - committing <=14 turnovers/game over the last 2 seasons and 2-12 ATS off a win against a conference rival over the last 3 seasons.
1 UNIT PLAY
Rutgers +9 over PITTSBURGH: Play against a home team off a game where 80= points were scored by both teams if this is a game involving two good defensive teams (63-67 PPG). This play is 3714 the last 5 seasons.