Free Picks: Service Plays for Wednesday, January 13

Xander Locke

Panthers vs. Flames
Play: Under 5

There are a number of reasons why this is going to be a low scoring game. First of all Florida is extremely tired after finally losing to Vancouver in OT which ended their 12 game winning streak. Not to mention Florida is ranked 1st overall in goals against this season. The Panthers are also ranked 26th overall in power play percentage. The Flames are even worse ranking 30th overall in power play percentage. Calgary is also hungry right now for a home win after losing two straight there. This is going to be a huge motivator for the Flames to play fiercely on defense. This total won't go over three goals.

Rob Vinciletti

Jazz vs. Blazers
Play: Blazers -2

The Portland Trailblazers are hosting the Utah Jazz tonight and Portland has won 3 of the last 44 here vs Utah and 21 of 30 off a dog win. They are 4-1 with 2 days rest. Conference road teams like Utah that won and covered the spread as a road favorite while scoring 90 or less in their last game have lost 10 straight times to teams like the Blazers that scored 110 or more at home in their last game. Play on Portland.

Rob Vinciletti's Featured Package

Scott Spreitzer

Duke vs. Clemson
Play: Duke -6½

The Clemson Tigers are off a 66-62 win over Louisville, as a 6 1/2 point underdog. Clemson made just 14 FGs on 32.6% shooting, including just six 3-pointers on 30% shooting, yet won the game. The Tigers were afforded 44 free throw attempts to just 16 for the Cardinals, outscoring Louisville 32-11 at the stripe. I doubt highly they're given that kind of an advantage again. Clemson HC Brad Brownell mentioned after the game that his team is "...playing much better basketball." Really? 14 made FGs on 32% shooting? They won due to the free throw disparity, combined with an off night for Louisville, who as a team, made just 3 of 23 treys. Clemson has won three straight after getting clocked by North Carolina and Georgia, but I'm betting the winning streak ends against the Duke Blue Devils and their offensive firepower. Duke enters on a 7-1 ATS conference run and they're on a 17-5 ATS run against teams that allow no more than 64 ppg. Meanwhile, Clemson enters on a 3-13 ATS slide following a SU win as a home dog. I'm recommending a play on Duke minus the points on Wednesday.

Jim Feist

Warriors vs. Nuggets
Play: Warriors -9

Denver doesn't play much defense, 21st in points allowed and field goal shooting allowed. The Nuggets are 6-17 ATS in their last 23 games playing on 2 days rest and they face a powerhouse Golden State offense, No. 1 in scoring, No. 2 in field goal shooting defense! The Warriors are 20-7 against the Western Conference, plus 19-7-1 ATS in their last 27 road games. Marreese Speights shook off 36 minutes of rust to score the first six points of the fourth quarter to help the Warriors take control and go on to their 36th straight regular-season home win, 111-103 over the Heat on Monday night. Curry scored 31 despite an off-shooting night, Draymond Green added 22 points and 12 rebounds. And the Warriors are 6-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings in Denver.

Ben Burns

East Carolina +13½

The Pirates welcome a controversial SMU side to Williams Arena at Minges Coliseum Wednesday night, with the Mustangs riding a drama-filled 15-0 start to the season. Southern Methodist, on top of all its academic violations and suspensions, got a scare from head coach Larry Brown, who missed the second half of the UCF game due to vertigo. The Mustangs have failed to cover in three straight games and while ECU is likely out of its league, there is value in the home side getting this many points Wednesday. The Pirates average 77.5 points at home compared to just 61.5 points per road game and have played up to their competition by covering in five of their last six matchups against opponents with a win percentage of .600 or higher.

Ben Burns's Featured Package

Mike Lundin

Jazz vs. Blazers
Play: Blazers -2

This looks like a good spot to wrap up Wednesday night with a play on the Portland Trail Blazers to defeat the Utah Jazz home at Moda Center. Utah is off back-to-back wins against the Heat and the Lakers since Rudy Gobert returned to the starting lineup, but I'm not sure how much they'll be helped by his presence against a Portland team that makes most of its damage through its backcourt. Damian Lillard has averaged 35.5 points, seven 3-pointers and 9.5 assists in his last two games and C.J. McCollum added 22 points in Sunday's 115-110 upset win against the Thunder. Lillard scored 35 points when Portland won 108-92 at Utah on Nov. 4, and we can note that the Trail Blazers are 9-4 ATS in their las

SPORTS WAGERS

PHILADELPHIA -105 over Boston

OT included. The Bruins have dropped four of their last five games and seven of their past nine. Their only two wins over that span occurred against the depleted Devils and the sinking Senators. Boston has scored one goal in each of its last two games and has now scored one or less in five of its past nine. This will also be the Bruins fourth straight road game. The Bruins are really a middle of the pack squad. They rank 20th in Corsi against in five-on-five play and 16th in Corsi for in five-on-five play. The B’s have just six wins in 15 games against top-10 competition while their strength of schedule ranks 16th. Boston is a game over .500 and on the cusp of a Wild Card spot. That’s who they are and that’s likely where they’ll remain the rest of the season. The B’s do not do anything extraordinary whatsoever but they have many flaws, which includes a weak defense, where Claude Julien is forced to move players in and out of the lineup constantly.

Philadelphia has scored four goals in three straight games and won them all. Its last loss occurred on the road in Los Angeles by a score of 2-1. It’s no coincidence that the Flyers offense has come to life since Dave Hakstol put Wayne Simmonds with Jakub Voracek andClaude Giroux. That instantly makes that trio one of the best lines in the world. It may surprise you to learn that the Flyers are 8-7 against top-10 competition and they are just four points worse than the B’s with a game in hand. Philadelphia has been slowly working its way back into the playoff picture with 12 wins in their past 18 games. Take away a three-game slide on their recent trip to California and the Flyers would have 12 wins in 15 games. Philadelphia is coming on big time but the market is sleeping on them right now, which provides us with a great opportunity to purchase them at a cheap price at home. That’s exactly how we’ll proceed.

CALGARY +104 over Florida

OT included. Now that the Panthers winning streak has ended, getting back that intensity in this, their fifth stop on a six-game trip, may be challenging. After such a long winning streak we often see consecutive losses because there is an exhale of sorts. A winning streak that long takes on a life of its own. It becomes the main focus with both media and fans and players are constantly being asked the same questions. The players get emotionally involved in it too. Intensity is high, as every player digs down to extend it. They push themselves to extreme limits in an attempt to keep it going. This now becomes a very vulnerable spot and perhaps even more so after four straight on the road with the last two being in Edmonton and Vancouver. The third game of that Canadian West Coast trip is almost always the toughest. Furthermore, the Panthers end this trip with a game in Tampa Bay on Sunday so this one could also be considered a sandwich game between their long winning streak and their in-state rivals.

Calgary is coming off a 5-4 loss to the Sharks in a game they dominated throughout. Karri Ramo allowed five goals on 18 shots and that’s why the Flames lost. Calgary has now lost four of its last five home games after a 10-game winning streak at the Saddledome. However, it’s not as bad as it seems on paper, as the Flames have held three of those five opponents to 18, 21 and 24 shots on net respectively. It’s also worth noting that Jiri Hudler draws back into the lineup after missing the past three games with a minor injury. Calgary now concludes its four-game home stand here with a chance to go 2-2 and we trust them to come up with a big effort here. That said, this one is more about fading the Panthers in a difficult spot than it is about backing the Flames.

Note: Karri Ramo has now started 12 consecutive games for the Flames so at some point Bob Hartley figures to give him a break. This might be the game that occurs because Jonas Hiller is 5-1-0-0 against Florida in his career, including two shutout wins. Hiller possesses a 2.04 GAA and a .935 SV% over those six games. However, we refuse to back Calgary with Hiller in net so we are going to have to wait for a goaltender confirmation before we pull the trigger here. We’ll update this as soon as we know.

Larry Ness

USC at UCLA
Play: UCLA

A win over UCLA would almost certainly vault 14-3 USC into the top 25 for the first time since 2008. That said, the game is an important one for 11-6 UCLA, too. Head coach Steve Alford, who is in his third season with the Bruins, hasn't lost to USC. In fact, forward Tony Parker is the only UCLA player who has. For the first time since 2013, the game doesn't have a clear favorite, although UCLA has won the last SIX meetings. Steve Alford has relished chances to pound crosstown USC the past two seasons but as his son PG Bryce said, "You don't want to play cupcakes. I'm not saying that they were ever a cupcake, but we like that they're getting better and they're a lot better this year." Asked on a local radio program this week if a competitive USC was good for both teams, Steve Alford laughed and said, It's good for the fans.

That sets the stage as Andy Enfield's USC group has better scoring balance than most NBA teams, featuring SIX double digit scorers. That group includes the team's three starting guards, McLaughlin (13.1-3.8), Jacobs (12.9-5.3-5.1) and Reinhardt (12.1-3-1 plus sixth-man Stewart (10.8-4.1). The 6-11 Jovanovic (12.5-7.7) starts up front with 6-10 freshman Boatright (12.2-5.1), while 6-11 freshman Metu (6.3-3.2) and the 6-7 Clark (2.7-5.2) add frontcourt depth. That's quite a lineup but UCLA counters with all five of its starters averaging in double figures, as well. PG Alford (17.4-4.0-5.1) is joined in they backcourt by Hamilton (16.5-4.4) and Holiday (10.6-3.8 APG), with the 6-9 Parker (13.0-9.9) and they 6-10 Welsh (12.8-8.8) starting up front. The top two reserves are the 6-10 Bolden (4.6-5.1) and guard Ali (4.9).

Both schools knocked off Arizona last weekend and while I?m sold on the job Enfeld's done at USC, the Bruins have won NINE consecutive contests at Pauley Pavilion since a season-opening loss to Monmouth (including wins over Kentucky and Arizona), as well as 12 straight conference home games, too. Make it SEVEN in a row for UCLA over USC.

Bill Biles

UCLA -2

UCLA has some momentum sweeping the Arizona teams and beating Arizona State who was ranked 7 at the time. This is a big game for UCLA to help them in the Pac 12 standings so they will be motivated and ready to go for this one.

Chase Diamond

Hawks vs. Hornets
Play: Hornets +3

This game has the 23-15 Hawks at the 17-20 Hornets. Hornets have lost 7 straight and will be playing desperate tonight against the Hawks. Hawks won a closer one earlier this year 94-92. 86% of public cash is backing the road Hawks which is a recipe for disaster. We will follow the sharp cash here and play on the desperate Hornets plus the points.

Chase Diamond's Featured Package

Power Sports

New Orleans vs. Sacramento
Pick: New Orleans

Even w/ Anthony Davis being questionable to play, I think the Pelicans are a good value plus the points tonight in Sacramento. If Davis does play, consider it a bonus. The bottom line is that the Kings have not fared well when laying eight or more points this year. In fact, they are 0-3 ATS including two recent SU losses.

Those two outright losses came at the hands of Portland and Philadelphia and both were obviously here at home. They also failed to cover last week when laying nine to the Lakers as the final score ended up being 118-115. The Kings' last game saw them hang tough against Golden State, but ultimately lose 128-116 and not cover the 8.5-point spread. Note how many points Sacramento has been giving up lately. They are allowing an average of 116.4 their last seven games and while that includes a pair of game w/ the Warriors, they also allowed 110 to Philly, who is the worst offensive team in the league by a wide margin. What I'm trying to say here is the Kings are hardly an ideal candidate to be laying this many points.

New Orleans lost last night, 95-91 to the Lakers. It was their fourth loss in a row. But because they are playing the second game of a back to back and Sacramento is well rested (three days off), we are able to get a pretty nice value. My own power ratings suggest that this line should be lower if even Davis does not play. The Pelicans have shot poorly in every game during this losing streak and I would expect things to turn around here against a poor defensive team like Sacramento. My recommendation is to take the points.

Nelly

Georgia - over Tennessee

Georgia has a modest record at 8-5 with just a 1-3 start in SEC play but three of the five losses have come by two or fewer points. The Bulldogs have won five games in a row at home and there are some solid wins on the resume with lopsided home wins over Georgia Tech and Clemson as well as more impressive than they sound wins over High Point and Oakland. Tennessee has dropped six of the last 10 games including a brutally tough miss last weekend hosting Texas A&M. The Volunteers are 0-6 away from home this season including falling against some average teams such as Nebraska and Auburn. Georgia rates as the far better defensive team and while Rick Barnes has the Volunteers playing well on offense this isn't a good shooting team. Tennessee creates very few turnovers and struggles with rebounding and while they have not often been blown out they have had a hard time finishing games. Georgia hasn't loss consecutive games in almost a year and after a one-point miss at Ole Miss Saturday expect the Bulldogs to clamp down defensively to get back to .500 in SEC play.

Drew Martin

San Diego State at Colorado State
Play: San Diego State -3

San Diego State makes the trip to Fort Collins tonight in a critical Mountain West showdown. The Aztecs are tied atop the Mountain West standings at 3-0 in conference play and the Rams are just a step back at 2-1. CSU lost its opener at Boise who is also tied in first in the conference but has since put together back-to-back one-point victories. The Rams are led by senior guard John Gillon who has come on of late and is one of the nation’s best free throw shooters at over 92%. Defensively, however, CSU has struggled with an adjusted efficiency in the bottom half of the nation and a steal pct. among the lowest in the country. The San Diego State offense should be able to capitalize on the defensive shortcomings of Colorado State. SDSU is mostly known for all defense and no offense and the statistics bear that out. The Aztecs entered Mountain West play ranked last in the conference in scoring (65.0 ppg), shooting (41.4%), assists (9.8), and second to last in 3-point shooting (31.2%) and turnover margin (-1.1). That’s starting to change. The Aztecs scored 67 points against Wyoming, 70 on the road at Utah State, and then 77 against San Jose State. They shot 50 percent in the first half at Utah State and 51.9 percent in the second half against San Jose State while having three players finish with 17 or more points for the first time this season. Head coach Steve Fisher on his team’s current form: “I think we’re making some progress, which makes me feel good. Our offense is getting better. We need to keep the defense at the level that we’ve had it. But I like the way our offense is starting to resemble a Division I offense. It makes all of us feel good when can score in the 70s instead of grinding out one in the 40s or 50s.” Compared to some of their early seasons performances, even an average SDSU offense is far more capable than the rest of the Mountain West. Reasonable price here to take the road chalk.

Andrew Lange

Houston at Cincinnati
Play: Under 137.5

After dropping its AAC opener to Temple, 77-70, Cincinnati head coach Mike Cronin made it abundantly clear that his team was going to start guarding or else heads were going to roll. In typical Cinci fashion, they responded, and done so in a big way. Over their last three games, the Bearcats have held the opposition to 57, 59, and 51. And one of those games was on the highway against an SMU squad that has hung 80+ on a routine basis this season. Tonight's opponent, Houston, is also getting more defensive of late having allowed 54 ppg in three AAC wins. And for both squads, the pace of their games has slowed considerably with only one of seven contests topping 65 possessions and tonight's posted total of 137.5. Also note that thus far, the AAC ranks near the bottom nationally in free throw rate as we've seen a number of league games have that 2014-15 "feel" to it with low scores and low possessions. And while we use last year's results with a grain of salt, it's worth noting that both meetings failed to top 122 points. Appears that both teams' non-conference results are still impacting what should be a total lined in the low 130's as we look to play this one under.