Wunderdog
USC @ UCLA
Pick: USC +3
USC is well equipped to end a six-game skid against rival UCLA. The Trojans have six players averaging from 10.8-to-12.9 points and are winners of eight of their last nine games. USC has a big frontcourt and a starting backcourt that features two natural point guards who are working well together. Julian Jacobs averages 12.9 points and 5.8 assists, nearly identical numbers to Jordan McLaughlin's 12.9 and 5.2, though the latter is a much more dangerous three-point shooter at 44.6 percent. USC also has two big, productive forwards in Nikola Jovanovic (12.5 points per game, 7.7 rebounds per game) and Bennie Boatwright (12.3 ppg, 5.1 rpg). The Trojans are on a 15-5-1 ATS run. They matchup well with a shaky UCLA squad that has been a money-burner (6-11 ATS) and is just 3-3 straight-up the last six games, losing twice as chalk. And the road team is 15-6 ATS between these crosstown rivals.
Kyle Hunter
St. Louis at Duquesne
Play: Duquesne -8
The Duquesne Dukes have a tremendous home court advantage. They will be extremely anxious to get back on track here. Duquesne has been short-handed and they have lost four straight games. They were underdogs in all those games, and they played some very good opponents. The Dukes now get to play one of the worst teams in the Atlantic 10, St. Louis, on their home court. Duquesne has Micah Mason, one of the best shooters in the country, back in the fold now and that's key. St. Louis has major problems on offense, and they are no longer a strong defensive team like they have been in the past. Great bounce back spot for Duquesne. St. Louis is 12-38-1 ATS in their last 51 games. They are 1-10 ATS in their last 11 following a loss.
David Banks
Dallas Mavericks @ Oklahoma City Thunder
Play: Dallas Mavericks
Can the Mavericks fare any better in their second meeting with Oklahoma City? Dallas dropped a 117-114 decision to the Thunder back on November 23. Thunder guard Russell Westbrook scored 31 points and had 11 assists in that meeting, one in which Oklahoma City played without leading scorer Kevin Durant. Durant is back and has been playing well lately. The perennial All-Star leads the team scoring 26.5 per game. Westbrook adds 25.5 for the Thunder, the NBA’s second-leading scoring team.
The Mavericks like to push the ball on the offensive side too, and are mediocre at best defensively. Trying to shut down the tandem of Durant and Westbrook, who score on average 52 of the Thunder’s 109 points per game, is easier said than done. What Dallas can do though is take away any inside presence from Serge Ibaka and Enes Kanter. The Mavericks Dirk Nowitzki could play a big role in that. The 37-year-old veteran is always a matchup nightmare and he will have to be sharp against the Thunder defense.
The key for Dallas (21-16) is most likely point guard Deron Williams and the health of 6-10 Chandler Parsons. Williams is the team’s second-leading scorer (14.5 ppg) and dishes out almost six assists per game. Parsons is still working to get back to full strength following off-season microfracture surgery on his knee. As he continues to progress, the Mavericks will get better.
Jeff Saad
Minnesota at Houston
Play Over
Minnesota is weak on defense, 20th in points allowed, No. 21 in field goal shooting defense. The Over is 5-0 in the Timberwolves last 5 games playing on no days rest. Houston is No. 4 in the NBA in points scored, a run-and-gun team. They will run right at the road weary visitors and the Over is 9-3 in Rockets last 12 games vs. a team with a winning percentage below .400. And when these teams meet the over is 6-0, including 6-2 in the last 8 meetings in Houston.
Mr. Vegas
Bucks at Wizards
Play Under
Milwaukee is getting back to playing better defense, on a 3-2 run under the total. The offense is not in a groove, though, scoring under 100 in 4 of the last 5, ranked No. 24 in the NBA in scoring. Washington is in the middle of the pack in scoring and the under is 7-1 in the Wizards last 8 games playing on one days rest, including 6-1 under at home.
Brad Wilton
My free play winner for tonight is the SMU Mustangs minus the points at East Carolina.
It's down to SMU and South Carolina as the only 2 unbeaten major teams out there this season in college hoops, and I don't see the Pirates pulling the stunner here versus the Mustangs, even on their home floor.
SMU has won the last pair of series meetings, and 5 of the last 6 series meetings overall.
True, the Mustangs are just 3-3 against the spread in those 6, and Larry Brown's team stands at 1-4 against the spread their past 5 games, but the Pirates are not much better with 3 straight losses and an 0-2-1 spread mark in those 3.
SMU has won 3 of their last 4 games by double-digits, and I like them to do the same tonight, only tonight they do so by enough points to cover.
Take SMU.
1* SMU
Jeff Benton
After battling injuries, and a highly-competitive early season pre-conference schedule, the Shockers of Wichita State are on the fast lane heading into action this Wednesday night.
Wichita State has won 5 straight, and they have covered in 4 of the 5 wins.
Look for them to win and cover once again tonight at Missouri State.
The Bears have notched back-to-back wins in MVC play, but they had lost 4 in a row both straight up and against the spread their previous 4 games.
Missouri State has lost each of the last 10 series meetings against Wichita State, and they have failed 4 in a row against the spread, and are just 3-7 against the spread the last 10 times they have faced the Wheat Shockers.
Lay it with rolling Wichita State.
4* WICHITA STATE
Chris Jordan
Last night my top play was on the Indiana Pacers. So of course, after they cruised to an easy win over the Phoenix Suns, and I see them catching points tonight in Beantown, I love them against the Boston Celtics.
It wasn't easy, the recent four-game road trip the Pacers jus endured, but after concluding with a difficult overtime loss to the Houston Rockets, they bounced back with plenty of vigor against the Suns last night.
The Pacers (22-16) split their four games on the highway, losing the first and last ones in extra time. Yet they held double-digit leads in both. This is a team playing very well right now, and that is looking to build momentum.
As I told you last night, the Pacers hadn't gone over the 100-point mark in quite some time, but I thought it was the right game to do so. Sure enough, Indy put up a 116-spot. Tonight the Pacers keep it going on the road.
Take the road underdog here.
2* INDIANA
Scott Delaney
I won't go in too much with this one, cause I'm not thinking much on it. But I like the Oklahoma City Thunder for one specific reason tonight, and that's why it's my free play. Blame the schedule makers for the reason the Dallas Mavericks are getting thumped.
Last night the Mavs hosted the Cleveland Cavaliers. The game went into overtime. The Cavs won.
Tonight, the Mavs are dejected and tired. To survive a back-to-back against the likes of Kevin Durant and company is going to be a killer night for the Mavericks.
The home team has won five of the last six meetings, and tonight the Thunder will terrorize a tired Dallas team.
4* OKLAHOMA CITY
Craig Davis
Your free play of the day is the Minnesota T'Wolves plus the points over the Houston Rockets. At the time of this writing the Wolves are catching 8 1/2 to 9 points in Vegas and offshore.
Call it more of a hunch than anything else, but I think with the Wolves playing really well in the second half last night against the Thunder combined with the fact the Rockets are coming off a blowout win over Memphis and the ensuing game with Cleveland on the horizon, they're going to be looking past the Wolves tonight.
Yes, I'm fully aware of the Rockets current winning streak and the fact they are playing together better as a team over the last month. But this selection isn't as much about who the better team is or which team is hotter, it's a simple process of elimination.
Minnesota has the players in Zach LaVine and Ricky Rubio and Andrew Wiggins and Karl Anthony-Towns to compete with Houston's veterans for four quarters and they might just sneak up on them with a SU win tonight.
Take Minnesota plus the points as your free play of the day.
1* MINNESOTA
Gabriel DuPont
Tonight's free play: Miami at L.A. CLIPPERS (5', 198')
The STORYLINE in this game today - The Miami Heat are in town, to face the Los Angeles Clippers. And that means along with Dwyane Wade and company, there is Miami's own DJ Khalid and his Snapchat followers who can't get enough of him telling everyone the keys to success. That may sound crazy, but believe me when I tell you there's a part of Staples Center that will be popping because of Khaled's "fan luv," and will make the game that much more fun.
The X-FACTOR in making this choice on this game - The x-factor is the offensive games these two bring to the court tonight. Miami just lost in Oakland, to Golden State, on Monday, but put a 103-spot on the board. They also put 103 on Phoenix. The only place during this road trip the Heat didn't get into triple digits was Salt Lake, re: altitude. The Clippers just beat New Orleans 114-111 in overtime, in L.A. on Sunday. They're well-rested for this game and will be fresh for this clash.
BOTTOM LINE is - Two of the last three meetings have gone over the posted number. This is the first meeting since Jan. 11 , 2015. They're going to have some fun tonight and there will be a lot of points. And during timeouts when you see hoards of people in the corner of the court seats, that's Khaled and his fans. For those who understand what that means, "they don't want you to win these games, so we gonna win these games!" Now "Bless Up!" PLAY THE OVER.
2* Heat/Clippers Over
SCOTT RICKENBACH
Pelicans vs. Kings
Play: Kings -8
Tough back to back spot for the Pelicans who are off of a road loss against the awful LA Lakers and now face a tougher challenge tonight. New Orleans is 1-7 SU this season when playing the second game of a back to back. Also, the Kings most recent win was a non-cover but, prior to that, Sacramento's last five wins were all also ATS wins - a 5-0 ATS run in victories. The Kings are off of a loss but that defeat came at the hands of the #1 team in the league (Golden State) and prior to that loss Sacramento had won 3 of their last 4 games. This is the first meeting between these teams this season but the Kings have an incredible long-term run of 19-6 ATS in match-ups with New Orleans. The Pelicans come into tonight's game having gone 1-6 SU (and 2-5 ATS) in their past 7 games. New Orleans has only averaged 39% from the field in their last 4 games. The Pelicans floundering offense won't be able to keep up with a Sacramento offense that has hit nearly 50% of their shots in their last six games. The hot offense, the home team, the rested team...all edges are with the Kings here and the 8 point impost is certainly a reasonable number as I expect Sacramento to win this game by at least a dozen points.
DAVE PRICE
Dallas Mavericks +10.5
The Dallas Mavericks are catching too many points tonight on the road against the Oklahoma City Thunder. I realize that the Mavs played an overtime game last night, but the Thunder also will be playing the second of a back-to-back after a narrow 101-96 win at Minnesota last night. This team has been letting some bad teams hang around lately as the last three games have seen the Thunder beat the Lakers by 4, lose to the Blazers by 5, and beat the Timberwolves by 5. That's not the kind of play that you would expect from a team that is favored by double-digits tonight against a much better opponent in the Mavs. The Mavs have only lost one of their last 13 games by more than 7 points, so they do not get blown out very often. Only two times in the last 21 games have they lost by double-digits.
BRANDON LEE
Duquesne -8.5
Not often you see a team that has lost 4 straight, including a 25-point loss in their last contest, favored by this many points. That just goes to show you how bad St Louis is. The Billikens are one of the worst teams in the A-10 and come in just 2-9 over their last 11 games. St Louis is just 1-3 on the road, where they are losing by roughly 16.0 ppg. The Dukes are 6-1 at home where they are outscoring opponents by 13.1 ppg. Last year Duquesne defeated St Louis 79-66 at home and I'm looking for a similar type score tonight. Keep in mind the Dukes have been underdogs in all 6 of their losses this season.
MATT FARGO
St. Louis vs. Duquesne
Play: Duquesne -8½
While Duquesne wasn't picked to finish very high in the Atlantic Ten Conference, expectations are still pretty high in Pittsburgh. The Dukes had a rough season a year ago as they were 12-19 overall and as inexperienced as they were then, they are very experienced now. Four starters are back including three seniors, two of which have played in every game throughout their careers. They have opened 0-3 in the conference but two of those came on the road and all three have come against teams picked to finish in the top five. Now it is time for a big win over an overmatched opponent. St. Louis is 1-2 in the conference and after an upset win at home over George Washington, the Billikens were blown out against VCU in the next game. It is important to note that after the loss, George Washington faced Duquesne at home which was a horrible spot for the Dukes. They are just 1-2 on the road this season with the lone victory coming at SIU - Edwardsville and the two losses coming by 28 points each. St. Louis is 1-10 ATS in its last 11 road conference games while Duquesne is 11-3 ATS in its last 14 games following a double-digit loss.