JACK JONES
Denver Nuggets +9.5
The Golden State Warriors are overvalued due to having the best record in the NBA. Asking them to go on the road and win by double-digits to cover this spread is asking too much tonight. I'll gladly fade the Warriors here.
The Warriors are expected to be without arguably their most important player in Draymond Green, who is listed as doubtful tonight. Meanwhile, the Denver Nuggets are nearly fully healthy heading into this one for the first time all season.
The Nuggets have won two of their last three games and have been extremely competitive here of late. Indeed, they haven't lost by more than 7 points in any of their last seven games overall. That includes a 6-point loss to Cleveland and a 108-111 road loss at Golden State as 15-point underdogs against these same Warriors on January 2.
Denver is 140-97 ATS in its last 237 home games after having won two of its last three games coming in. The Warriors are 0-6 ATS in their last six games when playing on 1 days' rest. Golden State is 3-8 ATS in its last 11 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. The underdog is 11-5 ATS in the last 16 meetings.
JIMMY BOYD
Northern Iowa -1½
I believe we are getting some exceptional value here with the Panthers listed as a small road favorite against Indiana State. Northern Iowa comes in sitting at just 2-2 in conference play, but very easily could be 4-0. The Panthers had back-to-back heartbreaking losses on the road to Southern Illinois (73-75) and Missouri State (58-59). Northern Iowa was able to right the ship with a 77-44 blowout win at home over Drake in their last game, but are still being undervalued by oddsmakers due to their 2-5 ATS record over their last 7 games.
I strongly believe that this is one of the 3 best teams in the Missouri Valley. Northern Iowa defeated both North Carolina and Iowa State in non-conference play, which says a lot about what this team is capable of. Indiana State has won 3 straight and 6 of 7 overall, but it's hard to find a real impressive win on their resume. The fact that they have covered the spread in 6 straight games and are 11-4 ATS overall this season, also is playing into the favorable line here with Northern Iowa.
The Panthers are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 road games after allowing 65 or less points in 2 straight games, 12-4 ATS in their last 16 off a conference win, and 13-5 ATS in their last 18 road games after covering the spread in their last contest.
BRANDON SHIVELY
Fordham +14
This is a much improved Fordham team. I will say they have their best team that I can remember of. Fordham is led by senior guard Mandell Thomas and forward Ryan Rhoomes who are four year starters for the team along with John Severe who has been a starter for three years. That brings experience for this trio as they have been playing together for 3-4 years now beginning since freshmen on the team. These kids have been leading the freshmen and sophomores on the team and overall Fordham is shooting 46.6% from the floor scoring 77 ppg. They are playing defense also only giving up 65.5 ppg on 41.2% shooting.
Enter VCU a team that has started conference play going 3-0. They are 4-0 ATS their last four games. That's one reason this game is slightly inflated.
Starting guard Jordan Burgess is out for VCU with a broken finger. While Burgess only averages 5.4 points a game and 4.6 rebounds a game, he is third on the team in mutes played a game and coach Wade said he does a lot of the things that don't wind up in the box score. Obviously, Burgess will not move a 'line', but I feel like anytime you lose an experienced player like Burgess, it does throw the team for a loop as they have to adjust.
Fordham is 3-0 ATS in their last three road games against VCU. They have been a 13.5, 18, and 25.5 point dog. In those three games they lost by 6 16, and 16.
While this spread is smaller, Fordham is much better than in the past and honestly VCU has been winning, but there is something missing from the team. Perhaps it's not having Shaka Smart on the sideline. With the road team being 5-0 ATS the last five meetings and considering the fact that the line last year was VCU -13 and they are worse this year than last year while Fordham is better this year than last year, I expect Fordham to keep this one within single digits.
SPS Investors
Northern Iowa vs. Indiana St.
Pick: Indiana State
The Northern Iowa Panthers have been somewhat inconsistent this season. They hold extremely notable wins over the then #1 ranked North Carolina Tar Heels as well as the Iowa State Cyclones, however they have struggled somewhat when playing 'lesser' competition as they have alternated wins and losses over their last 6 contests.
A big reason for the Panthers success this season has been their outstanding percentage from the field. As a team they are shooting 57% from the floor, which is good for 11th in the nation. They are also a team that relies heavily on the 3 point shot as they average 22 shots from beyond the arc. When the Panthers have struggled however has been when their shots aren't falling or they struggle from the field. Northern Iowa has also been extremely protective of the basketball this season but that will surely be tested in this contest as Indiana State averages a forced turnover rate of 20.1% this season.
The Panthers are also not a good rebounding team. They rank 349th in the nation in offensive rebounding. Their opponents however have been extremely aggressive on the glass and are one of the better rebounding team in the country, coming away with 74.9% of the defensive rebounds which ranks 30th in the nation. If the Panthers struggle to find their shot, they likely won't have very many second chance opportunities in this contest. The Panthers have also shown their struggles away from home going just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games and are 3-6-1 ATS in the last 10 meetings at Indiana State.
Northern Iowa is the perceived "better" overall team in this contest, however we believe this matchup favors the home team. This is a game that could potentially come down to the final possession and if that is the case, the points could prove valuable in this instance.
Harry Bondi
RHODE ISLAND +1 over St Bonaventure
We have won 4 of our last 5 FREE WINNERS and tonight back Rhode Island over an overrated St. Bonaventure squad. The Bonnies have surprised a lot of people this year. They are first in the A-10 at 11-3 and are 6-3-1 against the spread. However, close examination of their schedule shows they haven’t beat anybody notable all season. There only win over a top 100 team was against Davidson. St Bonaventure's other victories have come against teams ranked 144th or worse! URI is a top 50 team that the Bonnies don’t match up well against.
GoodFella
Timberwolves +5 1st Half
A few too many points here IMO. I really think these TWolves play this Rockets club tight early on. The Rockets are an over-valued team here IMO, and I would play this down to Minny +3.5 fwiw. The Twolves have some real talent and should give this Rockets team a ball game this evening. I look for a strong 1st half out of the visitors this evening & I am on these Timberwolves and the +5 points for the 1st half.
Bruce Marshall
Wichita St -13.5
All of a sudden, the clouds have parted for Wichita, now beyond its early-season injuries to key components G Fred VanVleet and Cleveland State transfer PF Anton Grady and starting to roll, as expected, thru the Missouri Valley, as its weekend romp vs. upstart challenger Southern Illinois indicates. Granted, Mizzou State HC Paul Lusk has been having some success with a slower pace in recent upsets vs. Northern Iowa & Loyola-Chicago. But the Bears were forced into patient style with injuries to starters F Chris Kendrix & G Dorrian Williams, and MSU not likely to keep pace in this one if it can't crack the 60-point barrier. Remember that the Bears (only 44 ppg in two games vs. the Shockers LY) had dropped four straight prior to their recent mini-surge.
Dave Essler
Georgetown -8.5
Normally I'd have found any way possible to back St. Johns with G-Town having Villanova on Saturday, but without Yankuba Sima, the 6'11" C for the Johnnies, G-Town should crush these guys - hopefully not leaving the backdoor too open. Their (St. Johns) only other "big" is a Sophomore averaging about 15 minutes a game - and he's 6'9". THEN they go to 6'7" Yakwe, who is also a Frehsman whose had to triple his minutes. Bradley Hayes, G-Town's C, might score 25 points and Copeland may LIVE at the FT line. The Hoyas as a team get to the line a TON - meaning more fouls on an already thin Johnnies team that hasn't been able to score, shoots horrible from the line, and turns it over way too much, and the Hoyas lost here last season so they might not take them as lightly as they could.
Dr Bob
Opinion – OKLAHOMA CITY (-12½) over Dallas
Dallas is resting 4 of their 5 starters and my player specific ratings favor Oklahoma City by 14½ points if I assume Durant and Westbrook play fewer minutes than normal with a double-digit lead in the 4th quarter.
Opinion – LA CLIPPERS (-5½) over Miami
The Clippers are still without Blake Griffin (a positive) and they may be without DeAndre Jordon, who is listed as questionable. However, Miami will be without PG Goran Dragic, which would cancel out Jordon not playing (Jordan is really not that valuable). My ratings favor the Clippers by 8 points in this game but Miami is much better after a loss the last two seasons (35-23-2 ATS) than they are after a win (17-40-1 ATS), which will keep me from making this a Best Bet. I’ll lean with the Clippers at -6 or less.
Opinion – COLORADO (-4½) over Oregon State
Colorado has been struggling a bit lately (1-3 SU) while Oregon State has won and covered in 5 of their last 6 games. While I do think the Beavers are for real I also think Colorado is better than they’ve shown so far and tonight the Buffaloes apply to a 103-48-5 ATS high altitude home team situation that plays on altitude teams off a loss against teams from sea-level. Like most altitude teams, Colorado does tend to play relatively better at home while Oregon State is just 3-10 ATS on the road and 2-12 ATS as an underdog of 3 points or more in two seasons under coach Wayne Tinkle. My ratings favor Colorado by 5 points, so the line is fair, and I’ll lean with the Buffaloes to bounce back at home.