JR TIPS
Washington Wizards at Atlanta Hawks
The Washington Wizards will be without Agent Zero again when they visit the Atlanta hawks Phillips Arena tonight after they didn't show up against the struggling Detroit Pistons last night. The Wizards only scored 11 points in the second quarter and were dominated with interior play giving up rebounds and points in the paint to the Pistons. The Hawks have been on a slump in the past ten games only winning their last 4 out of 10 games; however, they did step it up and beat the Celtics twice although without Kevin Garnett. The Hawks are 14-4 at home ATS at home while the Wizards are 6-13 straight up and 7-10-2 ATS on the road. The Hawks play great offense at home averaging 109 ppg while the Wizards struggle on defense giving up 103 ppg on the road. On a back to back the Wizards defence will have even more struggles so look for this Atlanta team to enjoy a wide open court game as they will also slack off on defense after playing a high intensity game in Boston. This game will be more like a street ball game as both teams will get up and down the court.
Take OVER 205
Steve Merril
Pittsburgh vs. Connecticut
Play: Connecticut -6
Pittsburgh has surprised a lot of people so far this season. After losing a ton of talent from their Elite Eight team of a year ago, the Panthers’ roster was left with youth and inexperience, and just one returning starter. But that hasn’t mattered yet, as this team is currently 13-2 and 3-0 in conference play. They come into tonight’s game off two big road wins at Syracuse (+ 11) and at Cincinnati (+ 4), and they’ll look to make it three straight wins on the road as an underdog. But that’s a lot to ask of a young team, especially playing at a Connecticut team that is off a loss. This is a much bigger game for the Huskies, and head coach Jim Calhoun knows it. "It's not a critical game for us. It's an incredibly important game for us, as every single game would be. I said a long time ago, with 20 games to go, that we need to get our share of conference wins. We've got two so far, and we've got to get our share." While the situation and need greatly favor UConn, there are a few reasons why this selection isn’t rated stronger. After blowing that 19-point lead at Georgetown, the Connecticut player’s psyche is in question. "Any time you lose a game, something happens to you, and you're never really sure until you play again," Calhoun said. "I think Pitt probably just has a little more maturity than we do.” Pittsburgh has no such issues with their confidence. "This team is really tough and mentally strong," Pitt forward Gilbert Brown said. "A lot of people didn't expect a lot out of us. But I think we held high expectations of ourselves." The Panthers have also won the last two games in this series and their two losses before that only came by 7 and 4 points which makes the pointspread look a tad too high to make this a Best Bet selection.
Tom Stryker
West Virginia vs. South Florida
Play: West Virginia -8.5
West Virginia has dropped two of its last three games to Purdue and Notre Dame and that fact isn't sitting too well with Mountaineers head coach Bob Huggins. In order to be a contender, "Huggy" knows his kids have to find a way to win on the road. Knocking off South Florida on foreign soil will be a step in the right direction.
As a home dog, the Bulls have really struggled posting a soft 33-51 ATS record including a dismal 26-43 ATS in this role in conference play. To make matters worse, USF has hit rock bottom when matched up against a foe that checks in off a straight up loss as a favorite notching a woeful 13-27 ATS mark. This team trend crashes to a nasty 8-20 ATS provided the Bulls arrive off a SU loss as well.
One thing West Virginia has done lately is found a way to bounce back off a straight up loss. The Mountaineers are a reliable 25-7 SU and 19-12-1 ATS in this situation including a sensational 18-1 SU and 15-4 ATS priced as a favorite of -13 or less.
USF is 0-3 SU in the Big East and the Bulls are catching the Mountaineers at the worst time. Coach Huggins liked the way his team battled back from a 22-point deficit at Notre Dame but this time he wants them to get out of the gate early and then finish the job. Lay the lumber here men. Take West Virginia.
LT Profits
Davidson vs Furman
While the Davidson Wildcats are 7-9 and the Furman Paladins are 8-7 this season, we actually feel that this game is a bit of a mismatch in favor of Davidson, and this is one of the few times that we feel comfortable laying this many points on the road.
You must consider that except for an upset loss to Appalachian State on Saturday, the Wildcats were actually underdogs in each of their other eight losses, losing to the likes of Gonzaga, Butler, Rhode Island and a Cornell team that nearly knocked off Kansas. That loss to Appalachian notwithstanding, the grueling non-conference schedule Davidson faced should serve them well vs. the lesser teams of the Southern Conference.
Now granted, the 142 ranking for Davidson in the Pomeroy Ratings is not as high as from the days of Stephon Curry, but they are still ranked light years ahead of Furman, at 264! Also, this team has not lost its shooting touch since Curry moved on to the NBA, as the Wildcats are hitting on 37.3 percent of their three-point shots, which ranks 73 in the nation.
Meanwhile, outside of a road game at Clemson, Furman has not really faced anyone of note, so their record must be taken with a grain of salt. In fact, they have a losing 4-6 record against the spread, and their only home cover all year came vs. Dartmouth, an Ivy League school that has one of the worst teams in the country according to Pomeroy, ranking 333 out of 347 Division I schools.
Furman ranks poorly in both offensive efficiency (.958 points per possession, ranking 239) and defensive PPP (1.067, ranking 273), and they are only hitting on a dismal 44.0 percent of their two-point shots. If Davidson has a typical shooting night, the Paladins simply lack the firepower to keep pace.
Davidson had now won eight straight head-to-head meetings with Furman, and we look for them to make it nine straight in double-digit fashion tonight.
Pick: Davidson -6
Johnny Banks
Phoenix Suns vs. Indiana Pacers
Play: Phoenix -3
The Suns are the better team here Wednesday night and they have won 3 of their last 4 games. The Pacers are a terrible rebounding team with opponents averaging 61.8 rpg against them over their last 5 games and they are just 4-22 SU in their last 26 games as an Underdog. The Pacers are just 2-12 when playing a team with a winning record and the Suns win by double digits Wednesday night.
Jeff Alexander
1 Unit on New Orleans Hornets -7.5
It's going to be very difficult for the Clippers to challenge the Hornets tonight after just playing in Memphis last night and with both Chris Kaman and Marcus Camby banged up. Kaman is currently listed as doubtful and Camby is listed as questionable. The Hornets are coming of a loss that snapped a 6-game winning streak so they will be extremely motivated to get back in the win column tonight against a team they have owned. Over the last 3 seasons, New Orleans is a perfect 9-0 SU & ATS versus the Clippers and I look for this trend to continue. Take the Hornets for 1 Unit.
EZWINNERS
Philadelphia 76ers -3
The Sixers have dominated this series with the Knicks and I expect that domination to continue in this meeting. Philadelphia has won nine out of the last ten meetings between these two teams and they are 8-2 against the spread in those games. Philly has won back to back games and four out of their last six. Samual Dalembert is really playing well, especially on the defensive end of the court. Dalembert will be the key to this win as I expect him to do a good job of containing David Lee, the Knicks only real threat in the paint, limiting New York to solely a perimeter attack. Lay the points.
Bryan Leonard
Utah at New Mexico
The Lobos have fallen on tough times as of late with two tough losses knocking them out of the national rankings. But we like this Steve Alford coached team and they are extremely tough to beat in The Pit. Utah has a great deal of talent but we're not sure they can stay within this number on the road. Look for the Lobos to get out and run on these Utes and pull away for a satisfying victory.
PLAY NEW MEXICO
John Ryan
Texas at Iowa State
Play: Iowa State
3* graded play on Iowa State as they take on Texas set to start at 8:00 EST and will be seen on ESPN 360. Our handicapping model clearly shows that Iowa State has what it takes to compete against the number 1 ranked team in the land. I found it rather surprising hat this is the first time Texas is ranked number one in the history of the school. Not surprised given their current 15-0 record is the best start in 77 years. Still, they are in uncharted territory and they are truly wearing two bulls eyes every time they play. The first bulls is that every team wants to be the first to knock them off and the second having to face the hostile enthusiastic crowds when they are on the road against conference foes. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 101-49 against the money line and has made 52.8 units since 1997. Adding fuel to our Iowa State selection is the fact that Iowa State has a history of strong coaching that motivates their players to perform at their best levels against the best competition. Note that Iowa State is 30-15 ATS (+13.5 Units) in home games versus good shooting teams that are making >=45% of their shots after 15+ games since 1997. Take Iowa State and consider an optional 1.5* amount on the money line looking for the big time upset.
Tom Freese
Minnesota Timberwolves at Houston Rockets
Prediction: Minnesota Timberwolves
Double digit NBA favorites are just 36-63-1 ATS this year. Houston lost to Charlotte last night as 2.5 road dogs. Now they dress up as double digit home favorites in this game vs. Minnesota. After their dismal performance last night thay won't be able to cover the double digit spread tonight. We realize that Minnesota is a bad team and sometimes when we play on bad teams they play bad. The fact of the matter is that the T'wolves don't need to win the game they just have to stay inside the 10 point line. PLAY ON MINNESOTA +
Hollywood Sports
New York Knicks at Philadelphia 76ers
Prediction: New York Knicks
Philadelphia (12-25) rides a two-game winning streak after disposing of the Pistons in Detroit (as everyone in the NBA now does) and then earning a nice win at home against New Orleans. But the 76ers have failed to cover in 8 of their last 10 games off a victory. Furthermore, Philadelphia does not defend their home court well as they have won just 5 of 17 games in their own building while covering in only 3 of those games. Philly shoots only 45.2% from the field at home while allowing their guests to shoot 47.7%. On Wednesday, the 76ers face a New York Knicks team that has struggled on the road -- but Philly has failed to cover in 8 of their last 10 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. The Knicks (15-22) had been playing better basketball having won 4 of 5 games before suffering two road losses in a row culminating in Monday's 18-point defeat at Oklahoma City. The Knicks should bounce back as they have covered their last 4 games after a double-digit loss. Over their last 5 games, New York is scoring 105 PPG on sharp 49.2% shooting which has helped produce a net point differential of +5.0 over that span. The Knicks' defense is holding their opponents to under 45% shooting from the field over these last five games as well. This is a good spot for the Knicks as they have covered four of their last five games against teams with a losing record. Take the Knicks over the 76ers on Wednesday.
Ron Raymond
MIN +105 vs VAN
Keys to selection: When ANY NHL Team played as a home team - With 1 day off - Last 3 years - Coming off a Home win as a Underdog - Coming off a 3 game winning streak; the Home Team is 14-7 (66.6%) SU in this role L3Y.
Tony George
So Illinois vs. Creighton
Play: So Illinois +4.5
Although Creighton is 6-1 SU at home, they are just 2-8 ATS at home their last 10 games, and the Blue Jays, once a conference giant along with the Saluki's here, are down this year. Both teams are actually down this year and while the home team always has an edge in mid majors, I like Southern Illinois here playing with triple revnge, with a better team overall to win this SU as an outright dog winner tonight.
Creighton is struggling from ther free throw line at barely 60% in their last 5 games and also in their last 5 games have managed just 27% from beyond the arc. Look for So. Illinois to win a squaeker in Omaha tonight. The once mighty Blue Jays are just 5-15-1 ATS their last 21 games overall!
Rocketman
Minnesota vs. Houston
Play: Houston -9.5
Minnesota comes in with a poor 8-31 overall record this year while Houston is now 21-17 overall this season. Minnesota is only 3-16 SU on the road this year where they are allowing a whopping 108.8 points per game. Houston is 8-0 SU and 6-0 ATS overall vs Minnesota the past 3 years. Houston is 5-0 ATS their last 5 as a home favorite. Houston is 41-19 ATS last 60 games after an ATS loss. The favorite in this series is 10-0 ATS the last 10 meetings. Houston is off a loss last night in Charlotte so I'm expecting them to bounce back in a big way here tonight. We'll recommend a small play on Houston tonight!
Matt Fargo
Akron @ Ohio
PICK: Ohio -1.5
This is a nice line for a solid Ohio team that is going to make some noise in the MAC. The Bobcats were picked to finish near the bottom of the conference but they are going to surprise some teams and one of those will be tonight. They are 0-1 in the conference following an opening loss against Kent St. on Saturday and their 9-6 overall record is certainly nothing to jump up and down about. However, it could be so much better as of those six losses, four have come by two points or fewer while another came on the road at a tough Marshall team by seven points. The sixth loss was at Pittsburgh so no shame in that one. The addition of Armon Bassett, a transfer from Indiana, has been enormous and Ohio now boasts one of the best backcourts in the conference with him along with D.J. Cooper and Jay Kinney. Cooper is just a freshman at point guard but he has scored in double figures in 10 of his first 13 games, averaging 12.8 ppg, 5.6 apg, 5.1 rpg, and 3.0 spg. Preseason MAC favorite Akron is 11-4 to start the season including a win in the conference opener on Saturday at home against Bowling Green. This marks only the third road game for the Zips which is a surprise since every other team in the conference has played more road games while their 10 games at home thus far are the most in the conference. They have split those roadies with a loss at Texas A&M and a win against a very average Wyoming team. Overall, Akron has played just the 330th ranked schedule in the nation while Ohio has played the 177th ranked schedule and despite this variance, the Bobcats have significant statistical edges with free throw shooting topping the list. The Bobcats fall into a great situation as well. Play on home teams that are coming off a conference loss as a home favorite going up against an opponent off a conference win by 20 points or more. This situation is 27-7 ATS (79.4 percent) over the last five seasons. 3* Ohio Bobcats