Dave Price
1 Unit on Houston Rockets -9
I know the Rockets just played last night, but I don't think tired legs will be enough of a factor to keep them from a double digit win here. The Timberwolves are 0-8-1 ATS in the last 9 meetings in this matchup, losing the last 4 meetings by at least 11 points. Houston is 11-4 SU & ATS at home this season and a perfect 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games as a home favorite. Minnesota is just 3-16 on the road this season, losing these games by an average of 11.7 points. Take the Rockets for 1 Unit.
Craig Davis
Tonight's free play is on the Dallas Mavericks at home. A few things play into my decision with the Mavs tonight. First, they've proven they can beat the Lakers as they went into Staples Center earlier this year and walked out with a 14-point win. Second, they're ticked because the last time they went in there the Lakers blasted them by nearly 40. Third, Los Angeles was beaten soundly by the Spurs last night and the general public will assume they'll bounce back. But the Mavs aren't the type of team you "bounce back" against... it's not like they're playing the Pistons. These are the Mavs, the second-placed team in the West and a team that would love nothing more than to gain a game on the Lakers in the tiebreaker department. Dallas has been playing better defense recently and with revenge on their minds and the fact the Lakers are playing back-to-back tell me I'm on the right side here. Lakers will drop two straight and no one will be expecting it.
2♦ DALLAS
Michael Cannon
Orlando at DENVER -5
I am now 62-43-3 with my last 108 free plays.
Take the Nuggets as the home chalk over the Magic.
Good situational matchup for Denver, as they catch Orlando playing its fourth game in six days.
Nene and Chris Andersen can both control Dwight Howard and keep him from going off. With their best player contained, the Magic just don’t have the depth to matchup with the Nuggets.
The return of Carmelo Anthony is a real boost for Denver. They can now get back to playing like they were at the beginning of the season when they looked like a legitimate contender in the West.
Orlando is just 2-4 SUATS in its last six overall. The Magic are also just 2-6 SUATS in their last eight road games.
The chalk is on a 12-4 ATS run in the last 16 meetings and the SU winner is 10-0 ATS in Orlando’s last 10 games and 10-2-1 ATS in Denver’s last 13 games.
Take Denver minus the points as they grab the home win and cover.
3♦ DENVER
DAVE COKIN
TEXAS / IOWA STATE
TAKE: IOWA STATE
Texas is clearly superior to Iowa State and on paper this game is not close. But if there's one thing we should all know from past experience, it's that vaulting into the number one position in the rankings is not always a great thing. Texas now wears the ultimate target and the Cyclones, along with their fans, are going to be completely revved up tonight. I don't envision the home dog having quite enough to win outright, but I fully expect them to make things tough on Texas. The number is substantial enough for me to go Iowa State's way.
Insider Angles
The Western Michigan Broncos have won five straight games, and we look for them to extend that streak in their MAC road opener when they visit the Northern Illinois Huskies tonight.
In fact, the Broncos are only one four-point loss to USC away from riding a seven-game winning streak right now, and they are winning with stiff defense. Western Michigan is allowing only 65.5 points per game vs. Division I opponents while limiting them to a scant 39.8 percent shooting from the floor. They should have no trouble containing a Northern Illinois offense that is not as good as their already low 63.8 points per game would indicate.
The Bronco defense looks even better according to the Pomeroy Ratings, as after adjusting for schedule, they are allowing only .943 points per possession, which ranks them number 71 in the country. They also rank 55 in effective field goal percentage against, a ranking that is bolstered by the fact that they are only allowing their opponents to hit on 43.7 percent of two-point shots.
Getting back to the Huskies offense, they are only averaging .933 points per possession, ranking them 274 out of 347 Division I schools. As if that is not bad enough, they turn the ball over on 24.5 percent of their possessions (ranking 316), they are only hitting 27.8 percent of their three-point shots (329), 46.7 percent of their two-point shots (201) and 60.1 percent of their free throws (338).
Considering the defensive prowess of their opponent tonight, Northern Illinois may have a tough time getting out of the 50s here the way that they have been shooting, so Western Michigan should be able to put enough on the board to grind out a road win.
Pick: Western Michigan -1
ALEX SMART
Pittsburgh @ Connecticut
PICK: Connecticut -6
If you're a Pittsburgh betting fan, you couldn't expect to be in much better shape than this to start off the '09-'10 campaign. In a year where many didn't know whether the Panthers would be dancing again or not, it sure looks like they're going to get their ticket punched to the NCAA Tournament as long as the wheels don't fall off of them. The return of G Gilbert Brown to the lineup has made a real difference for Pitt. He has only played in four games this year, but in those four, he has scored an average of 10.0 points per game. He joins G Ashton Gibbs and G Brad Wanamaker as the only Panthers that are scoring double digits in terms of points per game.
All of Connecticut's numbers looked fantastic coming into Big East play this year, but things just haven't translated into SU victories for HC Jim Calhoun's club. Still, the trio of G Jerome Dyson (19.3 points, 5.5 rebounds, 5.3 assists per game), F Stanley Robinson (17.1 points, 7.7 rebounds per game), and G Kemba Walker (12.7 points, 5.9 assists per game) is amongst the best threesomes in the entire country. It's not that they've been stopped in Big East play this year; it's just that the Huskies haven't quite been able to finish the deal late in games.
Connecticut will be looking for some payback after the Panthers stole both NCAA basketball wagering battles last year between these two squads. The Huskies' last victory in this rivalry came back in February 2008. Pitt is 4-1 ATS in the L/5. While the Panthers are hot of late, UCONN’s hotter! They’ve covered each of their L/5 games and have taken care of business on this court against each of their first two Big East foes. With Dixon recently putting a charge into the Panthers offensive output, this line looks to be a head scratcher. With that being the case, I’ll resort to the notion of “It if looks too good to be true…
Jimmy Boyd
1 Unit on NY Knicks +2.5
Off back-to-back defeats, and further motivated by an earlier season loss to the 76ers, look for the Knicks to pull off the small upset tonight. Philly is only 1-8 ATS in home games versus good offensive teams scoring 99 or more points per game this season, losing to these teams by an average score of 96.7 to 103.6. The 76ers are just 5-14 SU & 3-14-2 ATS at home this season and they have been absolute poison as a home favorite as just 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games in the role. The road team is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings and NY is 13-4 ATS when revenging a home loss of 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons. Take the Knicks
SPORTS WAGERS
INDIANA +1.56 over Phoenix
Two things to note here with the first being that the Suns are a completely different team on the road than they are at home. Phoenix is 9-10 on the road but they’re just 1-7 in its last eight road games. No doubt this visitor is not playing nearly as good as they were out of the gate. The next thing to note, which is even more significant, is the small number the books put out there. The books are going to take a ton of action on the Suns and they design it that way. They could have come out with a 5½ and not swayed a single bet the Pacers way. There’s not a lot else to say about this game. The Pacers are a bad team from the East and although they have some key bodies back, they get very little support from the wagering public. Of course anything can happen but the Suns are the sucker bet of the night. Play: Indiana +1.56 (Risking 2 units).
Milwaukee +2.22/+6 over PORTLAND
I’m going to split this up and play Milwaukee straight up for one unit and take back the six points for one unit. The Bucks are definitely not one of the best road teams in the NBA but they’re really in a decent spot tonight and they’re ready to pop on the road any time now. The Blazers have had nothing but trouble against teams with a lot of bigs like the Bucks have. The Grizz is loaded with bigs and the Blazers haven’t been able to beat them all year. These two met in Milwaukee about a month ago at a time when the Blazers were hot and the Bucks were cold and Milwaukee won that one in OT. The Blazers aren’t as hot anymore, while the Bucks are playing much better and that, too, works to our advantage. Lastly, the Blazers are coming off games against the Lakers and Cleveland and they have the Magic on deck. This is a vulnerable spot for them. Play: Milwaukee +2.22 (Risking 1 unit) Play Milwaukee +6 (Risking 1.05 units to win 1).
OKLAHOMA CITY –2 over San Antonio
The Spurs are coming off a big win last night over the Lakers and will now travel to a place they’ve always had trouble winning at and that was a time when the Thunder was awful. Well, they’re not awful anymore and in fact, just might be the league’s most improved team. Not only are they tough at home but they’re going good, they’re well rested and the joint will be absolutely rocking tonight. This venue has perhaps the most passionate fans in the NBA and they really get the team fired up. The Thunder have won two in a row and eight of its last 10 and nobody can argue that Kevin Durant, if he isn’t already, is the next big star in this league. Thunder will be ready for this one and the same might not hold true for the Spurs. Play: Oklahoma City –2 (Risking 2.1 units to win 2).
ANAHEIM -½ +1.17 over Boston
The Ducks woke up a few games ago and the other teams in the West had better hope this team doesn’t make the playoffs because this is not the team you want to draw in the first round. The Ducks have been wildly inconsistent with so many disturbing losses and this year is really a mirror image of last season when they were also so inconsistent but rallied late to make the playoffs. They have now won four in a row and that includes a 3-1 win in Chicago in its last game, despite being outplayed. Over that stretch the Ducks outscored its opponents 14-6 and to top it off, Jonas Hiller is really in a nice groove right now. When he’s on, Hiller has proven he’s one of the best. Enter the Bruins, a team that had dropped three of four, that’s struggling miserably to score goals and that has some key players on the rack. This is a place the Bruins seldom visit (one game here in the past seven years) and they have the Sharks up next tomorrow night. These Ducks are not a non-playoff team, yet the find themselves six points out right now. However, they’re wickedly dangerous when they show up and cannot afford not to. Play: Anaheim -½ +1.17 (Risking 2 units).
King Creole
MIN +9.5 vs HOU
1-11 ATS since Nov. 1st: All NBA non-division BIG favorites of 8 > points playing off a SUATS road dog loss (Rockets).
5-0 ATS since Dec. 1st: All NBA teams playing in their 3rd STRAIGHT road game playing off BB SU losses... BUT an ATS win in their last game (TIMBERWOLVES).
Spartan
OKL -1 vs SAN
I cannot help but feel this is a really lousy spot here for the Spurs fresh off a big win at home against the champs! I rode the Oklahoma City Thunder to a nice win against the Knicks on Monday night and I do believe I'll side with them once again here at home. The Spurs have not exactly been challenged on the road this season, the schedule has broken just right for them in that they have only faced one winning ball club over a span of the past five weeks when playing away from home. I feel the Spurs will be coming into town tonight a little tired and basically be in the wrong place at the wrong time as I expect a rested Thunder team to be ready and waiting for a chance to get out and get after it. Also, keep it mind the Thunder have cashed against the number the last four times they have squared off against the Spurs. In my view here guys the Thunder is definitely the way to go.
GREG SHAKER
Mississippi Rebels at Georgia Bulldogs
Play: Under 143
I have been watching this total go upward since the opening at 141 and while I think it could go higher, I am going to go ahead and get this number. Georgia cannot compete in this game unless they keep the scoring down to a level they can handle and that level is under what is the current line. They have played some up-tempo teams and they have gone OVER the mark 7 out of 10 times this year but with lower posted totals than this with the exception of the game at Mizzu. That is the key because that game was on the road. Here in Athens they have controlled the pace better and they have played much better defense. In fact they have limited comers to just 58 ppg at this arena and that does include games with High Tempo Ga Tech and Fla Atl who got 66 and 60 when they came here. CBB Squads are just better at dictating what happens on the court when they are at a Friendly Court and as evidenced by that, Ole Miss with their Huge Pace are 8-2 UNDER the last 10 they have played away from Oxford and at a homecourt of somebody. The Rebels can score but they too have a solid D and both teams have limited their opponents to Under 40% shooting in the situation they find themselves in tonight. Interestingly, the GA/GT game featured a total of 132. Oddsmakers know that bettors know what Ole Miss does. They have overstepped this one and I would play down to 137. Most likely this total will rise some more though because bettors love Overs and these teams have done that a lot this year. Trends can be your friend and they can be your enemy. It is your enemy tonight and I don't think the 140 barrier will be broken or even near it.