Free Picks: Service Plays for Wednesday January, 16

Ben BurnsFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Chicago vs. TorontoFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: TorontoFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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I had to settle for a push with my play on the Raptors yesterday. With this line climbing from its opener, I'm willing to give them another shot today.

Earlier this season, I visited Toronto and took in a Raptors game. The Raptors were still winless (0-2) and they were off a 7-point loss at Brooklyn the previous night.
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The group of people I went with, all of them "Raptor fans," weren't giving their team much of a chance ...

I made a play on Toronto in that game and told them that I wasn't concerned with the back-to-back spot and that I liked what I'd seen from the Raptors at Brooklyn.
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Unaffected by the b2b situation, the Raptors would go on to reward me with a convincing 105-86 victory over the T-Wolves, their first "W" of the season.

They've continued to perform well when playing the second of back-to-back games too. In fact, the Raptors are 7-2 ATS in that situation this season, including 3-0 SU/ATS when playing at the Air Canada Centre.
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Going back a little further finds them at a profitable 11-3 ATS the last 14 times that they played the second of back-to-back games, 28-19 ATS the last 2+ seasons.

True, the Bulls are off an impressive "beatdown" of the Hawks. Keep in mind that they're still only 8-14-1 ATS when laying points. (They're also 2-4 ATS off a double-digit win.)
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As noted, this line has climbed from its opener, creating extra line value, as the betting public seemingly can't get enough of the Bulls. Note that the Raptors are 3-0 ATS as home underdogs in the 3.5 to 6 range.
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The most recent meeting between these teams (102-101 home win for the Bulls) was decided by a single point. The Raptors lost the last time that they hosted the Bulls but had beaten them in three of the previous five games here and five of the previous eight. Consider grabbing the points.

Sean MurphyFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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New Orleans vs. BostonFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: UnderFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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What to expect: The Hornets will face a lot more resistance than they did last night in Philadelphia. New Orleans busted out with a 111-point effort against the 76ers, but now travels to Boston to take on a Celtics squad that is absolutely locked in defensively right now. Boston has reached the century mark in back-to-back games, although it only got there thanks to some curious fouling from the Bobcats in the closing minutes of Monday's game. The Celtics have topped out at 103 points over their last 16 contests, reaching at least 100 points only four times over that stretch. Defensively, the C's haven't allowed more than 96 points since December 30th, and have limited six of their last seven opponents to 93 points or less. Look for Boston to take away the Hornets perimeter game tonight, which is half the battle with New Orleans boasting sharp shooters like Ryan Anderson and Eric Gordon. While Gordon is expected to play tonight, it's worth noting that he is still nursing a nagging ankle injury. I don't expect the Celtics to explode offensively in this one, as the Hornets have actually been playing some solid 'd' of their own lately, and far weaker New Orleans teams have enjoyed considerable success at that end of the floor against Boston in recent years.

Marc LawrenceFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Illinois St. vs. Wichita St.FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: Wichita St.FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Wichita State strolled into last year’s Missouri Valley Conference tourney as the top seed with a gaudy 26-4 record. After cutting down Indiana State in their opening game, 72-48, WSU was shocked (sorry, couldn’t resist) in the semifinals by these Redbirds, losing 65-64 as 12-point chalk. Now, as they say, is when the chickens come home to roost: Wichita has gone 8-0 SU and 6-1-1 ATS playing with LTKO revenge, plus the Shockers are 10-1 SU and 8-3 ATS at home in all revenge games against MVC foes, including 4-0 SUATS when off a spread loss of more than 5 points. And the last two times WSU has been looking to ‘get even’ in this series, Gregg Marshall’s team won and covered both contests. Meanwhile, Illinois State is off to a painfully slow start in conference play this year, going 0-5 SUATS to date. And while they have managed to hold their own against weaker opposition this season – 9-2 SU and 6-2 ATS versus .800 or less foes – the Redbirds have been shot down by .880 or greater teams, going a futile 0-3 SUATS. Factor in ISU’s mediocre 4-8 SUATS log versus teams with LTKO revenge and we recommend a 1-unit play on Wichita State.

David ChanFORFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Cleveland vs. PortlandFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: ClevelandFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Cleveland is 9-31 SU and 17-22-1 ATS; it's coming off three straight losses, including a 124-118 setback at Sacramento on the 14th as a 6 point underdog. The Cavs are on the cusp of breaking out though, and are getting big contributions across the board.
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Dion Waiters had 33 points; CJ Miles had 17; Tristan Thompson had 17 points and 15 boards.

Kyrie Irving had 15 points.
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In all the team shot almost 49% and made eight of 16 3-pointers.

Note that Cleveland is 13-10 ATS on the road.
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Portland is 20-18 SU and 17-18-2 ATS; it's coming off a game in Denver last night.

Note that Portland is just 6-12 ATS when playing against a team with a losing record.
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There's no need to overanalyze this pick; Portland comes in with "heavy legs", and the under the radar Cavs atone for the 118-117 loss at home to the Blazers on December 1st by keeping this one much closer than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe; consider a second look at the visitors in this one!

Bruce MarshallFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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St. Mary's vs. Brigham YoungFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: Brigham YoungFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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With the edge of the Big Dance bubble appearing as if it could be pretty crowded in early March, these WCC contenders are well-advised to stick as close as possible to high-flying Gonzaga in order to gain notice from the NCAA Selection Committee. But in Provo, it’s advantage BYU, as revenge-minded Cougs (who lost twice by double-digit margins last season vs. Gaels) have brought out the hammer at Marriott Center this term (victory margin 33 ppg last four home wins!). And HC Dave Rose is very encouraged by the recent contributions of soph G Matt Carlino, who was having trouble finding shots with return of high-scoring G Tyler Haws from an LDS mission, but has now scored 17 ppg in a recent four-game stretch. This current SMC editon might lack the inside presence of recent Gael versions to deal with the likes of 6-9 Cougar PF Brandon Davies (18.4 ppg) in the paint.

Hollywood SportsFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Heat at WarriorsFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Prediction: OverFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Golden State (23-13) has lost three of their last four games after their 116-105 loss at Denver on Sunday -- and they have played 7 of their last 8 games Over the Total after scoring at least 100 points in their last game. The Over is also 7-2-1 in the Warriors last 10 games after scoring at least 100 points in their last contest. And in their last 11 games on their home court, the Over is 7-3-1 in Golden State's last 11 games. Miami (24-12) has also lost three of their last four games after their 104-97 loss at Utah on Monday. The Heat have played 10 of their last 14 games Over the Total after allowing at least 100 points in their last game. Take the Over in this one.

Kyle HunterFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Houston +6FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Houston Cougars and East Carolina Pirates are actually pretty similar teams. Both like to run and gun and put up a lot of three-point shots. East Carolina's home wins against teams that are worse than Houston have been less than impressive. The Cougars have plenty of scoring options and I think they should at least keep this game very close. Houston is 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games against East Carolina. Take Houston.

Rob VincilettiFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Xavier +1½FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Xavier has Conference tournament knockout revenge in this one and they have better overall numbers. The Muskies have a 93 RPI Ranking and have played the 54th toughest schedule in the country. They have won 3 of 4 vs teams like St. Bonaventure that are ranked from 150 to 200 in the RPI. The Bonnies are ranked 183 and have lost all 3 games vs top 100 RPI Ranked teams this season. They have also dropped 4 of 5 vs teams who play good defense and allow 65 or less points per game. In January they have struggled losing their last 3, and 6 of 8 vs teams over .500. Xavier has cashed 5 of 6 as a dog and 5 of the last 6 at this venue. Over the last 3 years in the 2nd half they have won 8 of 9 vs teams under .500 and 21 of the last 29 when playing off a conference win. Take Xavier tonight.

Dave CokinFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Toledo at Western MichiganFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: Western MichiganFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Not much attention will be paid to this unattractive MAC hookup. But I see this as a decent spot for the home team. Toledo is ineligible for post-season play this season, so I've been trying to find spots that are meaningful and also searching for those that might not fall into that category. Coming off an OT win last time out, this could fall into the latter realm. But the impetus for this opinion is more on Western Michigan. The Broncos have a wide disparity in their home and away stats this season. Awful on the road, not so bad at home. WMU comes into this on an 0-3 skid, but the losses were to far better teams they just didn't figure to hang with. Actually, they just missed the upset last game with a narrow loss to Ohio. The Broncos were a pathetic 55/169 from the field in that trio of contests, but should warm up some against a softer Toledo defense. Basically, I'm playing the host as they drop in class from recent opposition and my number on this game was Western Michigan -4. Good enough for a tilt to the Broncos laying about half that.

Jim Feist

Hornets at Celtics
Pick: Under

Boston has been putting its defensive face on (finally), on a 6-1 run under the total. That's also keyed their 6-game win streak. In fact, the Celtics have surged to 7th in the NBA in points allowed. Into town comes New Orleans, a team with no offense, 28th in the NBA in points scored. They prefer a slow paced game allowing 96.8 ppg -- 12th in the NBA. The under is 6-0 in the Hornets last 6 vs. a team with a winning record. This is the second of a back to back spot, too, and the under is 4-1 in the Hornets last 5 games playing on no days rest. The under is 11-2 in the last 13 meetings in Boston between these teams. Play the Hornets/Celtics under the total.

JR O'DonnellFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Buffalo PkFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Jr Goes OVER THE TOP HERE tonight with a hungry Buff Bulls play... We grab the spot up MAC play here @ home boys as I tried so hard to make a case for the 10-6 Golden Flashes (1-1 MAC)... THIS LINE SMELLS BOYS.. 5-11 and losers of 3 in a row The Buff Bulls (0-2 MAC) now host a Golden Flashes ball club ... Huge Edges on the Glass for the Bulls and a powerful stat of the home team here @ a 8-1-1 ATS MATK.... We feel that it is way way too easy to grab the Flashes .... Reggie Witherspoon runs the show there boys and the Alumini Center has a strong home court ..last year these Bulls were a strong 75% home cover... Power rated @ Bulls - 1.3 points..

Jimmy Boyd

Northern Illinois vs. Ohio
Play: Northern Illinois

Northern Illinois +19 over Ohio This is a lot of points for a conference game so I'll bite. Northern Illinois isn't good, but they have done a good job for their backers at the pay window, cashing seven of their last nine tickets. This team pulled an upset last time they took to the road, beating Miami (OH) by 11 as an 8 point underdog. Both Ohio and N. Illinois have played UMASS recently. Ohio last on the road by nine points to the Minutemen while the Huskies only lost by five at home. After the Bobcats only managed to beat Western Michigan by two points when the Broncos shot 28.3% from the floor, I don't see how they can win by 20+ points tonight against Northern Illinois. Fade double digit favorites off a close road win by three or less with a winning record on the season when they are playing a sub. 500 team. This situation is 69-36 (65.7%) the last five years

Matt Fargo

Richmond vs. Butler
Play: Richmond

Butler has been on a roll with 11 consecutive wins and it is off to a 2-0 start in its inaugural season in the Atlantic Ten. The Bulldogs have not only been winning but they also have been covering as they are 6-3 ATS in the nine lined games over that stretch. Tonight they are laying a smaller than expected number and the bandwagon is even more full because of it. There is a reason for the shorter number however as guard Rotnei Clarke was injured in the last game and will be out here as well as Saturday against Gonzaga. It is a big blow as Clarke is the Bulldogs leading scorer, averaging 16.3 ppg while shooting 44.4 percent from long range. Richmond is coming off a loss at LaSalle on Saturday to fall to 1-1 on the season in the conference and this has now turned into a good opportunity to steal a quality win on the road. The Spiders were picked to finish in the middle of the Atlantic Ten in the preseason after a disappointing season a year ago but expectations are pretty high now after a strong start. The Spiders are not without their own injury issues as forward Derrick Williams is out with an ankle injury but the advantage is that they have already played three games without him and the proper adjustments have been made. Richmond has a very solid backcourt led by guard Darien Brothers, who averages 15.1 ppg and ranks among the national leaders in three-point shooting at 51.1 percent. While Butler has a solid home court advantage, it is 0-7 ATS in its last seven home games coming off a road win while going 1-4 ATS in its last five home games against teams with a losing road record.

Dave Price

Miami Heat -2

The reigning NBA champs have been struggling, but I expect them to dig down deep to come up with a win tonight. Motivation can be an issue in the regular season for teams like the Heat, who have made back-to-back trips to the NBA Finals, but I don't expect them to have any trouble getting up for this one because they were defeated at home by Golden State last month. The road team is 5-1-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings, and the Heat are 5-2-1 ATS in the last 8 meetings at Golden State. Take Miami.