Wunderdog
Kansas State at TCU
Pick: Kansas State
The TCU Horned Frogs are playing for the first time as a full member of the Big-12. They have entered the deep end of the pool, and their first three games show them at 0-3 and still looking for their first conference win. They have not been competitive in any of the three games, and their one other encounter this season with a BCS Conference team resulted in a 20+ point blowout loss. Kansas State is 13-2 on the season, and the two losses have both come at the hands of top 10 teams. The Wildcats have been rolling as they have delivered six straight wins, and their defense should strangle TCU here as Michigan is the only team to reach the 70-point mark against them all season. Take K-State.
John Ryan
Ball State at Akron
Prediction: Akron
The simulator shows a high probability that Akron will win this game by 23 or more points. I rarely play large favorites and they account for less than 5% of all of my plays with about 80 to 85% being dogs in any given season. However, these rare findings are for solid reasons. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 40-15 ATS mark for 73% winners since 1997. Play on a home team that is a good offensive team scoring between 74 and 78 PPG and is now facing a good defensive team allowing between 63 and 67 PPG and after allowing 55 points or less 2 straight games. The sim also shows that Akron will hit between 47 and 53% from the field, will allow Ball State fewer than 60 points, and will score between 75 and 80 points. In past games, Akron is a rock solid 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) when they make 47% to 53% of their shots in a game over the last 2 seasons; 12-2 ATS (+9.8 Units) when they allow 60 or less points in a game over the last 2 seasons; 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) when they score 75 to 80 points in a game over the last 3 seasons. Take Akron.
Tony Karpinski
Loyola Marymount vs. San Diego
Play: San Diego
UNLV looks to be a bunch of ball hogs and they worry about personal performances instead of team play. There aren’t enough basketballs on the court to suit the Vegas stars if they insist on adhering to their preferred individual roles, and SD ST will take advantage tonight and get the double digit win.
Bryan Leonard
Evansville +1
Important game for the Purple Aces who were swept by the Bulldogs last season. But overall Evansville has played pretty well over the years in the Knapp Center winning 7 of 15 straight up while cashing 10 times. Evansville has played well all season when not taking a major step up in class as its last losses came against Creighton and Butler on the road.
Drake is off an impressive road upset of Illinois State as an 11 1/2 point dog. But it was clear that the Redbirds took them for granted after watching Drake lose by 12 at home to Missouri State as a double digit favorite followed by a 30 point blowout loss at Creighton.
SPORTS WAGERS
Washington +160 over SACRAMENTO
En route to a disturbing 4-28 record to open the year, the Wizards rarely got blown out and their 19-14 record versus the number can attest to that. Then Nene got healthy while John Wall returned and is slowly getting back into game shape. The Wiz are an outstanding rebounding club, they've won three in a row and they embark on a five game trip beginning here. With confidence much higher, expect another strong performance.
The Kings are too inconsistent to trust as chalk. They'll commonly play one strong game and follow it up with two poor ones. They've won just three of their last eight and those victories came against the Cavaliers twice and the Raptors once. Sacramento has Memphis on deck and like they often do, they could pull a no show here. Even at their best, the Kings are beatable. Strong value on this live pooch.
PORTLAND -6 over Cleveland
The Cavaliers have two wins in their past 10 games. During that stretch, they've defeated the Bobcats and the reeling Hawks. They've allowed 112 points or more in four of their past six and it's become blatantly clear that they can't play defense without Anderson Varejao who remains out. The Cavs will now play their fourth road game in six days.
The Blazers have won 13 of 18 home games and only one of those came against a team under .500. The last two trips here by Cleveland resulted in 20 and 41-point wins by the host. The potential impact of a tiring OT loss in Denver last night has the Blazers undervalued for this one. Not to worry, as Portland is 6-3 against the number on zero days rest and the Cavs are on a current 0-4 run against the number as a road dog of five or more
SPORTS WAGERS
MARQUETTE -9½ over Seton Hall
The Halls' 12-5 overall record has them overvalued and we'll look to take advantage of that again here. Prior to conference play, the Pirates were 12-2 but their strength of schedule ranked 233rd in the country. After Big East games against Notre Dame, Louisville and Providence, Seton Hall's SOS increased but they were exposed with double-digit losses in all three games with two of those being on its home floor. They're likely to be exposed again, this time on the road, where the Golden Eagles have won 18 straight.
Marquette doesn't usually fair too well in close games. They should have little trouble keeping a distance here. The Golden Eagles schedule has been the 28th toughest in the country and after playing UConn, Georgetown and Pitt, they take a huge step down in class against these imposters. Seton Hall can compete and beat weak clubs. Against the powers in the Big East they cannot and Marquette qualifies as such on its home hardwood.
Steve Janus
Washington Wizards +4
The Wizards aren't exactly a great team to back on the road, but with the way this team is playing right now I think they are showing some solid value against the Kings. Sacramento had a difficult time beating the Cavaliers at home in their last game, while Washington won their third straight with an impressive 120-91 victory over the Magic. Personally I think the Wizards have an excellent shot at winning this game outright. The Kings defense of late has been awful, allowing at least 110 points in each of their last five games. Washington on the other hand has held 9 of their last 11 opponents under 100 points. Adding even more value is the fact that the Kings are just 3-13 ATS in home games after allowing 100 points or more in 4 straight games over the last three seasons.
Brandon Lee
New Orleans Hornets +7½
The Celtics come in having won six straight and are clearly playing much better basketball, but I think they are being overvalued against a Hornets team that is playing extremely well of late. New Orleans has won five of six and are more than capable of keeping this game close. You also have to factor in that Boston only beat the Bobcats at home by 11 in their last game and could be looking ahead to Friday's big home game against the Bulls. Take the Points!
Jack Jones
Indiana Pacers -1½
The Indiana Pacers have been one of the most underrated teams in the league all season. They are off to a 24-15 start this season, which would have them as the No. 3 seed in the East if the season were to end today, just 1.5 games behind first-place Miami.
Indiana doesn't get a ton of recognition because they are in a small market. Plus, they play a 'boring' style of basketball. That style has proven to be effective considering they are the best defensive team in the league, allowing just 88.9 points/game on 41.1% shooting.
The Pacers got their offense going in a 103-76 win at Charlotte last night, and they'll certainly have an excellent chance to keep it going against Orlando tonight. The Magic have lost 11 of their last 12, and they are giving up 113.6 points/game over their last five contests.
Indiana has won four straight meetings with Orlando. The Pacers are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. The Magic are 5-17 ATS in their last 22 home games following a road trip of 7 or more days. Orlando is 0-8 ATS in a home game where the total is between 180 and 189.5 points this season. Bet the Pacers Wednesday.
Jeff Alexander
Fresno State +4½
Playing against any team (Wyoming in this case) that has covered the spread in 4 of its last 5 games, provided it has won 80% or more of its games on the season and is matched up against a team that has won 20% to 40% of its games, has produced a 44-22 (66.7%) ATS record the last 5 seasons. Take the points with Fresno State behind this solid system.
Charlie Sports
Washington Wizards at Sacramento Kings
Play: Sacramento Kings
The (7-28) Washington Wizards of the NBA Eastern Conference Southeast division will take on the (14-24) Sacramento Kings of the Western Conference Pacific division in 2013 NBA action. Washington has won their last 3 both Straight Up and Against The Spread since the return of point guard John Wall. Sacramento is 4-2 ATS their last 6 vs. The Wizards and are 2-3-1 ATS their last 6 at home. Sacramento gets the home cover.
LEGIT PICKS
Wednesday 1/16/13 Plays...
3* HEAT -2
7:30PM PST
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