Free Picks: Service Plays for Wednesday, January 17

DUNKEL INDEX

NCAAB

Iowa at Purdue
The Boilermakers look to bounce back from their 67-62 loss to Wisconsin and build on their 7-0 ATS record in their last 7 games following an ATS defeat. Purdue is the pick (-10) according to Dunkel, which has the Boilermakers favored by 12. Dunkel Pick: Purdue (-10)

Game 541-542: Michigan State at Michigan (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Michigan State 75.555; Michigan 70.756
Dunkel Line: Michigan State by 5; 131
Vegas Line: Michigan State by 1; 133
Dunkel Pick: Michigan State (-1); Under

Game 543-544: Georgetown at DePaul (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Georgetown 68.577; DePaul 57.646
Dunkel Line: Georgetown by 11; 152
Vegas Line: Georgetown by 8; 146 1/2
Dunkel Pick Georgetown (-8); Over

Game 545-546: Auburn at LSU (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Auburn 53.466; LSU 65.922
Dunkel Line: LSU by 12 1/2; 118
Vegas Line: LSU by 9 1/2; 121
Dunkel Pick: LSU (-9 1/2); Under

Game 547-548: Texas Tech at Oklahoma (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Texas Tech 51.872; Oklahoma 67.477
Dunkel Line: Oklahoma by 15; 138
Vegas Line: Oklahoma by 13 1/2; 135
Dunkel Pick: Oklahoma (-13 1/2); Over

Game 549-550: Iowa at Purdue (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Iowa 59.061; Purdue 70.870
Dunkel Line: Purdue by 12; 148
Vegas Line: Purdue by 10; 143
Dunkel Pick: Purdue (-10); Over

Game 551-552: Maryland at Florida State (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Maryland 59.456; Florida State 68.841
Dunkel Line: Florida State by 9 1/2; 128
Vegas Line: Florida State by 12; 133
Dunkel Pick: Maryland (+12); Under

Game 553-554: Arkansas at Kentucky (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Arkansas 63.733; Kentucky 78.156
Dunkel Line: Kentucky by 14 1/2; 155
Vegas Line: Kentucky by 17 1/2; 147
Dunkel Pick: Arkansas (+17 1/2); Over

Game 555-556: Boise State at Colorado State (10:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Boise State 57.011; Colorado State 66.927
Dunkel Line: Colorado State by 10; 157
Vegas Line: Colorado State by 6; 152
Dunkel Pick: Colorado State (-6); Over

Marc Lawrence

Golden State Warriors at Cleveland Cavaliers
Prediction: Golden State Warriors

When the Warriors meet the Cavs at Quicken Loans Arena Tuesday evening Golden State will take the court knowing they've bagged the cash in each of the last five games in this series. In addition, Cleveland returns home off a 7-game road trip looking ahead to a major showdown up next with the Bulls. With the Warriors 6-2 ATS as dogs of more than three points this season, look for the Cavs to burn the money for the sixth time in a row in this series here tonight. We recommend a 1-unit play on Golden State.

Sean Murphy

Arkansas @ Kentucky
PICK: Over 147

Both of these teams have seen their last two games stay 'under' the posted total, but those are streaks I expect to see come to an end on Tuesday night.

Arkansas is off to a fine 2-1 start in SEC play, but not only will the Hogs be facing their toughest conference opponent to date, they'll be going up against the best team they've faced all season.

The Razorbacks have held the opposition to 39.1% shooting this season, but I don't think they have any hope of slowing down the Wildcats, especially when you consider Kentucky carries a chip on its shoulder after back-to-back sub-60 performances against Auburn and Tennessee. Keep in mind, those games were played on the road. Here at home, the Wildcats are averaging 83.3 points per game on 48.5% shooting.

Believe it or not, Arkansas' best shot at staying competitive in this game may come by pushing the pace. The Hogs have been more comfortable in games where the shot totals have eclipsed 60. I don't see them changing their gameplan against the Wildcats, even if it means they end up allowing Kentucky to hang a crooked number on the scoreboard.

The Wildcats will likely welcome an up-tempo affair after getting bogged down against Auburn and Tennessee in their last two games. Keep in mind, we've seen Kentucky give up its fair share of points here at home, despite its overall stingy defensive numbers. The 'Cats have allowed over 60 points in seven of their last 10 home tilts.

The last time these two teams met in Lexington, the host Wildcats put up 101 points in a 31-point rout. I expect to see a more competitive game than that on Tuesday, but don't be surprised if we see a similarly high-scoring contest.

Jim Feist

Denver Nuggets vs. Milwaukee Bucks
Play: Denver Nuggets -2½

Have to back the rested Denver Nuggets and their explosive offense, second in the NBA in scoring (104.1 ppg) and tops in assists. They will run right at a Milwaukee team that is not any good, but also in the second of a back to back spot, playing at Philadelphia last night. The Bucks are 1-12 ATS in their last 13 vs. the NBA Northwest and 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games playing on no days rest. And the Nuggets are 16-6-1 ATS in the last 23 meetings. Play the Nuggets!

Matt Fargo

Golden State Warriors vs. Cleveland Cavaliers
Play: Cleveland Cavaliers -2

Cleveland is coming off a win at Charlotte on Monday, capping off a long and tough seven-game roadtrip. And to be honest, it wasn't that bad as the Cavaliers went 3-4 as it defeated the teams it should have defeated and lost to the teams it should have lost to with the opener at Toronto being the only exception. Tonight's game falls into that former category as despite the nearly two-week roadtrip, Cleveland should have gained some positive momentum from yesterday's late comeback. Golden St. is also coming off a win as it defeated Detroit on Sunday for its first road win of the season. The Warriors were probably looking forward to this roadtrip as the four-game set is against bottom-tiered teams in the Eastern Conference and while a 4-0 trek was the goal, that is already done after a bad loss against a bad Charlotte team got everything started. The Warriors have not won two straight games on the road since the second week of last season and they are now 9-33 in their last 42 road games. The Cavaliers are off to a 6-6 start and even though they are just a game better than this point last season, this team is clearly better. They are playing with a lot more energy and they continue to fight. The addition of rookie Kyrie Irvin is going to be huge as he is a superstar in the making and with now 12 games under his belt, he is showing what he can do. He started the season slow as any rookie does but he has averaged 22.6 ppg over his last five games and most impressive is that has come on 55 percent shooting. Cleveland aims for its third straight win at home as this is just its fourth home game this entire season, the fewest home games played by any team in the league. The fact that it is 6-6 makes it even more impressive. The Cavaliers are looking for some double-payback here as they lost both meetings to Golden St. last year and neither were close as they lost by 18 and 10 points. Going back to last season, Cleveland is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 games against teams with a losing record.

Rob Vinciletti

Bruins vs. Lightning
Play: Over 5.5

Boston takes to Tampa with the #1 scoring offense in the league. They may not meet much resistance against a 30th ranked Tampa Bay defense here tonight in a game that should fly over the total. The Bruins have played over in 5 of 6 January games . Tampa has played over in 14 of 18 at home when the total is 5.5 and 7 of the last 10 when they are off 3+ losses. When taking on winning teams 15 of their last 22 have soared over the total and they have flown over in 8 of their last 10 games. Its no wonder their home games have averaged 6.4 goals per game. Look for this one to go over the total tonight.

Bryan Power

Winnipeg @ New Jersey Devils
PICK: New Jersey Devils

This is the completion of a home & home series between the two clubs, although for Winnipeg they had a game in between - last night in Ottawa, where they surprised what had been a hot Senators teams, 2-0 as a sizable underdog. The Devils took the first meeting 2-1 in Winnipeg, their fourth win in five games, and I don't see the Jets gaining a measure of revenge due to being at the disadvantage of having played last night. Despite last night's win, Winnipeg is still struggling on the offensive end w/ only 15 goals scored the last nine games. They have certainly had some trouble in the past getting the puck past Devils goalie Martin Brodeur, who has a 1.71 GAA the last four times he's faced the Jets (going back to their days in Atlanta), all wins, including stopping 43 of 46 shots in a pair of victories this season.

Ben Burns

Edmonton Oilers @ Columbus Blue Jackets
PICK: Columbus Blue Jackets

Not exactly a clash of the titans here. The Oilers are in 13th in the West, 13 points back of the 8th place team. The Blue Jackets have been even worse. In fact, not only are they 15th (out of 15) in the West, they've got the fewest points in the entire league.

Both teams should view this as an opportunity to pick up a rare victory. With this game being played at Columbus, I expect the Jackets to have the advantage.

The Oilers won this season's lone earlier meeting, a 6-3 victory back in early December. That came at Edmonton though. The Jackets are now 0-3 their last three visits there and 5-15 their last 20.

Recent games at Columbus have been a different story. In fact, the Jackets are a perfect 4-0 when hosting the Oilers, since the start of 2009. The Jackets were laying a minimum of -155 (and as much as -220) for those games. We're getting them at a far more reasonable price here. I feel that's providing us with solid value. Consider a play on Columbus.

Dave Cokin

Michigan State vs Michigan
Pick: Michigan

Revenge will be on the minds of the road team as Michigan State lost both meetings to Michigan last season. But the Spartans might just find the going rougher than they'd like once again as the Wolverines have been a tremendous team at home, especially against the number. Michigan is also a robust 20-7 ATS off a loss, while MSU is a less than stellar 3-7-1 in the same scenario. The visitors are favored, but I'll side with Michigan to get the win and cover tonight.

EZWINNERS

Miami Heat -7

The Heat return home having lost the last three games of their five game road trip and will be without guard Dewayne Wade who will be out with an ankle injury, but I like them to pick up the win. The Spurs have been great at home this season, but they are a different team on the road. On the road the Spurs have gone 0-4 so far this season and have allowed 106.3 points per game on 52.5 percent shooting. San Antonio has allowed each opponent to shoot 50.6 percent or better and score at least 105 points in those games. Last year the home team won each game in blowout fashion in the two games that these teams played and I look for the same in this one. Lay the points.

JR O'Donnell

Purdue -10.5

Hawkeyes are 11-8, 8-6 ATS and 2-3 ATS on the road, while Purdue is 13-5, 9-7 ATS and 6-2 ATS at home! A big difference is that the Hawkeyes overall only outscore their opponents 74.2 to 71, but on the road they score only 66.6 ppg to an opponents 77.6! Contrasting the Boilers average 72.4 overall, surrendering 61.6, but at home up it to 74.1 and crank it down to only allowing 53.7 in the friendly confines! As for signatures wins, the Hawkeyes do have wins over Wisconsin & Minnesota on the road + a Michigan win at home. Still they have losses to Creighton (-23), Campbell (-16), Clemson (-16), Michigan State (r) by "34" and Ohio State by "29" at home. Purdue on the other hand has wins over Temple (+8), Miami (+11), Illinois (+15) and Minnesota (+13) and tough losses to Aabama, @ Xavier -3, Wisconsin and Butler. UP is 13-5 SU in their last "18", 9-1 SU in their last "10" at home, and 5-1 SU in their last "6" home to Iowa! Iowa is 3-12 SU in their last "15" on the road, 2-4 ATS last "6" at Purdue and 1-5 SU in their last "6" vs. Purdue on the road.

MTi Sports

Suns at Bulls
Play: Under

The Bulls are 0-9 OU (-10.7 ppg) with at most one day of rest after a game in which less than 45% of their baskets were assisted and the Suns are 0-10 OU (-11.5 ppg) on the road after a loss in which they scored less than 15% of their points from the free throw line. Also, Phoenix is 0-9 OU (-11.6 ppg) on the road after a loss in which Jared Dudley took fewer than 10 shots and the Bulls are 0-7 OU (-15.6 ppg) at home after a loss on the road in which Joakim Noah shot worse than 33% from the field. Consider these two UNDER.

SPORTS WAGERS

Ottawa +111 over TORONTO

The Senators came up a flat last night in a home loss to the Jets. It was their first regulation loss in three weeks and it was also the first time they were shut out this season. The last time the Sens lost in regulation they subsequently went on a 8-0-1 run. Now the Sens embark on a six-game trip that begins here and teams often play their best in the first game of a long trip in an attempt to set the tone. They also get a chance to face James Reimer, who is the confirmed starter for the Maple Leafs. Reimer hasn't played since New Year's Eve. In his last three games, Reimer has a 4.11 GAA and there's little doubt that he'll be feeling some pressure at home with the Leafs on a two-game losing streak. In the last two games that these two played against one another, the Sens scored eight times and won both. Play: Ottawa +105 (Risking 2 units).

Detroit -½ +105 over DALLAS

Both teams will play their third game in four days but the difference is that the Red Wings are in much better form, they're deeper and they're healthier. The Red Wings are coming off a 5-0 win over Buffalo last night while the Stars were shutout in St. Louis. With that win last night, Detroit has won three in a row and outscored the opposition 11-4. By contrast, Dallas has scored once in its past two games and has lost three of its last four games. The Stars also lost Jamie Benn (42 points in 43 games) as he joins Mike Ribeiro (31 points in 40 games) on the rack. For an offensively challenged team, losing both those guys is a huge handicap and it's no mystery as to why the Stars have scored just once in two games. That leaves Loui Erikson as the Stars’ only bona fide scorer while Detroit has numerous threats. This is a cheap price for a superior team against a seriously hurting Dallas club that among issues mentioned, is also forced to go with its backup netminder tonight. Play: Detroit -½ +105 (Risking 2 units).

N.Y. Islanders +159 over WASHINGTON

The Islanders lost 3-1 to the Preds yesterday but Nashville scored on its first two shots on net against backup goaltender Kevin Poulin (0-2-0). It'll be Evgeni Nabokov back between the pipes tonight against a strongly overvalued and overrated Caps team. The Islanders are playing some decent hockey right now but this one is all about taking back a pretty sweet price against this falesly perceived “good team”. They're not good. The Caps have won three in a row but the combined January record of opponents they've beaten is 5-13-2. In its last game against Carolina, the Caps were outshot 44-24. Only once in their past six games and twice in its past 10 has Washington mustered more than 24 shots on net. On most nights they're around the 21 shots on net range or about seven a period. In its last four games, they've been outshot 44-24, 31-20, 30-21 and 35-22. The Capitals are no better than most of the teams behind them in the standings and that 17-5-1 home record they possess is extremely misleading and fortunate. Playing against the Caps at these prices comes highly recommended because over the remainder of the year, it's likely going to be hugly profitable. Play: N.Y. Islanders +159 (Risking 2 units).

SPORTS WAGERS

Detroit +293/+7½ over HOUSTON

Great spot for the Pistons to come in here and steal a win. Detroit is 3-10 and is coming off a home loss to the Warriors. The Rockets are 6-7 and they're coming off three straight wins over Portland, Sacramento and Washington. Despite this recent run, the Rockets are weak in the middle and weak off the bench. That has them very vulnerable in unfavorable situations like this one. Chances are that they take the 3-10 Pistons very lightly. Houston will play its fourth game in five nights, the tail end of back-to-backs and the sixth game since last Tuesday. This is where they can run out of steam. The Pistons will come in much fresher and surprisingly better than their record indicates. The Pistons have had one of the more difficult schedules in the league, having already played the Bulls twice, Pacers twice, Knicks, Boston, Philly, Milwaukee, Orlando and Dallas. That's tough. They should control the middle tonight with stud Greg Munroe playing lights out and guard Ben Gordon finding his game. Detroit has a poor record but they play hard each night and they should not be grouped with the likes of the Kings, Bobcats and Wizards (three of the past four teams the Rockets have beaten). We're definitely giving the Pistons a chance to win straight up and will play a unit on both the money line and spread. Play: Detroit +293 (Risking 1 unit). Play: Detroit +7½ (Risking 2.1 units to win 2).