Jimmy Boyd
1 Unit Miami Heat -7
With 3 full days of rest and hungry to end a 3-game skid, expect the Heat to roll at home tonight. Miami will likely be without Dwayne Wade, who is dealing with an ankle injury, but it still has the horses to cover this number against a San Antonio team that is without Manu Ginobli and has really struggled on the road. The Spurs are 0-4 SU and ATS away from home this season with those losses coming by an average of 11.2 points. It is worth noting that 3 of those losses came to Houston, Minnesota and Milwaukee, who definitely aren't of Miami's caliber. The Spurs are 1-11 ATS in their last 12 road games and 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games as a road underdog. Also, plays on home favorites off a road loss by 10 points or more, a good team winning 60% to 75% of its games playing a team with a winning record, are 54-18 ATS the last 5 seasons. Teams fitting into this situation have won by an average of 9.0 points.
Brad Leeb
Ottawa vs. Toronto
Play: Toronto
The Ottawa Senators are in Toronto to play the Maple Leafs at the Air Canada Centre. Ottawa lost its last outing, a 2-0 result against the Winnipeg Jets on last night. The Senators are currently in 5th place in the Eastern Conference. They are 8-1-1 in their last 10 games with a 11-7-5 record on the road. Last time out for Toronto, they were a 3-0 loser as they battled the New York Rangers at home. The Leafs are currently in 9th place in the Eastern Conference. They are 5-4-1 in their last 10 games with a 12-6-4 record on home ice. The Senators are the hottest team in the NHL right now, and they are pushing the Boston Bruins for top spot in the Northeast Division. The Senators will be playing their 2nd game in as many nights. James Reimer will be back in net for the Leafs, and he will be looking to regain his number 1 spot. The Leafs will be ready for this battle of Ontario and will be trying to knock the Senators off their perch. Back-to-back nights may prove to be too much for Ottawa in this matchup. Bet the Toronto Maple Leafs on the Moneyline.
NHL Predictions
Washington Capitals -170
The Islanders are coming off a 3-1 home afternoon loss yesterday against the Predators. They went 2-2 in their four game home stand and are 2-4 in their last 6 games overall. On the season New York is 16-21-6 and just 6-10-3 on the road. The Islanders are averaging just 2.3 goals per game on the year, but just 2.05 goals per game on the road this season while giving up 3.53 goals against per game away from home. Washington has enjoyed 3 straight home wins and looks to go 4-0 on their home stand with a win tonight. The Caps have beaten Carolina, Tampa Bay, and Pittsburgh on this mini home stand and have now won 7 of their last 9 games. The Caps are 17-5-1 on home ice this season, where they are averaging 3.13 goals per game. With Mike Green and Nicklas Backstrom out of the lineup the Capitals have relied on depth to win games. Over their last 9 games the Capitals have held opponents to 2 or less goals 6 times. Take note that the Islanders are playing their 3rd game in 4 days and are 1-4 in their last 5 times in that situation. The Caps are 5-0 in their last 5 games as a favorite. New York took these two teams only meeting so far this year in New York, but the Capitals are a much different team at home. The Caps had won 6 straight versus the Islanders before their loss in New York. Look for Washington to get some revenge by beating up on this Islanders team who is playing their 3rd game in 4 nights.
Kings / Canucks Under 5
The Kings enter tonight's game with a 22-15-9 record, and 9-5-6 on the road. Los Angeles is scoring just 2.2 goals per game, and a lower 2.15 goals per game on the road. While their scoring is giving them troubles, they are playing solid defensively. The Kings are allowing just 2.13 goals against per game and 2.30 goals against per game on the road. The Canucks dropped their first game back after a 4 game road trip to the Ducks on Sunday 4-2. Vancouver is averaging 3.2 goals per game on the year, but are averaging just 2.63 goals per game over their last 8 games. The Canucks and Kings always seem to play low scoring games. Over their last 6 meetings we have seen totals of 5, 5, 4, 4, 5, and 3. Jonathan Quick has a stellar 1.90 GAA and .933 SV% this season. Roberto Luongo has a 2.41 GAA and .916 SV%. Take note that the UNDER is 25-11 on the season for the Kings (not including pushes) and 11-4 on the road this season. Playing to the UNDER isn't uncommon for the Kings, as the UNDER is 36-16-12 in their last 64 games overall, and 33-14-7 in their last 54 road games. The UNDER is 9-3 in the Canucks last 12 home games vs a team with a losing record, and 21-8-1 in their last 30 games as a favorite of -151 to -200. The UNDER is also 6-1-1 in their last 8 meetings in Vancouver. Even with the total set at 5 I still think there is value on this play.
WUNDERDOG
Los Angeles at Vancouver
Pick: Over 5
This is an LA team that was just not able to do much scoring for a long stretch of the season. They went through a 16-game stretch where they failed to score as many as 4 goals in a contest. That has changed as the offense has come to life and since that 16-game stretch they have now scored 4 or more in five of their last 11, including three of their last four. It certainly poises them as a much bigger threat as they have found their legs on offense. To a low total here, we stand a good chance at winning the over as the Canucks have been vulnerable in front of the net, allowing 15 goals in their last five games, so take the OVER in this one.
Andrew Lange
Maryland at Florida State
Play: Maryland +6.5 1st half
Beating North Carolina at home wasn't that monumental of an achievement for Florida State – despite what the Seminoles’ student body showcased after the buzzer. However, hanging 90 on the Tar Heels in route to a 33-point victory is no doubt going to make FSU's players feel good about themselves. Letdowns happen all of the time in college hoops and the odds of that occurring to the Seminoles – for at least parts of tonight's game – are pretty good. I will say that of all of the potential letdown victims, it is the teams with elite level defenses which are typically the least susceptible – something that FSU without question has. The one thing the Seminoles don't have though is the ability to consistently knock down shots. Against a majority of the better teams on their schedule, the Seminoles failed to top 1.0 point per possession. Maryland is a different squad than it was at the start of the year. After adjusting some to first-year head coach Mark Turgeon and going to battle with a full complement of players, we've seen the Terps play some competitive basketball with 9 out of 10 wins (lone loss, 79-74 at NC State). They take a big step up in class defensively against FSU but this is a scrappy enough team to hang around. Look for the home side to come out a little flat as we make a play on the underdog in the first half.
Teddy Covers
Golden State @ Cleveland
PICK: Golden State
Expect another strong effort out of Golden State tonight as they continue their road trip with a game in Cleveland against the Cavs. Here’s what forward David Lee said on the eve of the trip: “If we come back with a losing record from this road trip, it should be a huge disappointment. This is a road trip to places where we need to go take care of business and get three or possibly four victories. I don't see it any other way at this point."
But Mark Jackson’s squad started the trip with a complete no-show in Charlotte, blown off the court by the lowly Bobcats. They were outscored 66-46 before halftime, and never came close to making up the deficit in the final 24 minutes of play. Forward Dominic McGuire: “We took it for granted. We came out thinking this was an automatic win….I don't think it was anything they did. They were hitting shots but ... 38 points for the Bobcats in the first quarter? C'mon."
The Warriors bounced back strong against the Pistons on Sunday, coming away with an eight point road win as a 4.5 point underdog. And their primed to do it again tonight, facing a tired Cleveland squad, playing on the second night of back-2-backs with their ninth consecutive court change as they return home following a grueling seven game road trip.
The Cavs stepped up in the second half to earn a much needed win at Charlotte yesterday, leaving them a tad bit ‘fat and happy' here, as evidenced by this quote from head coach Byron Scott: “I told the guys that if we can come off this seven-game trip with three wins, it’d be pretty good. And we did that. And we had some other close ones, so the road trip pretty much was a success.” Look for the Cavs to really struggle matching the Warriors intensity this evening, especially without injured sharpshooting starter Anthony Parker in the lineup. Take Golden State.
Jack Jones
Utah Jazz -4
The Utah Jazz are one of the most underrated teams in the league in the early going. This team has done a remarkable job of replacing Deron Williams in such a short period of time. They now play together more as a team than they did when they had Williams, and it's starting to pay off.
Utah is off to an impressive 8-4 start this season. The Jazz have been really hot of late, going 7-1 in their last 8 games with their only loss coming in overtime to the Los Angeles Lakers. Utah has gone 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games as well.
The Jazz are 6-1 SU & 5-2 ATS at home this season, outscoring opponents by 6.5 points/game. The Los Angeles Clippers are just 1-2 on the road this year, giving up 102.0 points/game and 48.7 percent shooting. A big reason for this play is that the Clippers are going to be without Chris Paul (hamstring) and Mo Williams (ankle), so they are certainly short-handed at the guard position.
The Clippers are 25-45 ATS in their last 70 games following 3 or more consecutive wins. The Jazz have been playing tremendous defense, and they are an impressive 15-4 ATS after 5 straight games - allowing a shooting pct. of 42% or less. The Clippers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as a road underdog. The Jazz are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 home meetings with the Clippers. Bet Utah Tuesday.
Steve Janus
Milwaukee Bucks +3
It might seem like easy money to lay the 3-points on the Nuggets at Milwaukee tonight, but I think it's the Bucks who have the edge in this matchup. Milwaukee comes in off a 82-94 loss at Philadelphia yesterday, but that game was closer than the final score leads on. In fact, I believe it has added great value to the Bucks game tonight.
Milwaukee is a perfect 4-0 at home this season, which includes a 106-103 win over San Antonio as a 2-point underdog. On the flip side, the Bucks have lost all 8 of their road games. The fact that they have played twice as many road games, has the public thinking poorly of this team. That perception allows oddsmakers to list the Bucks as a small underdog at home, even if they think they will win the game outright. Knowing that the public will be quick to jump on the Nuggets, if they really thought Denver was going to win this game they would likely have them favored by more than 3-points.
This isn't a guaranteed system by any means, but one that I have had some success with. There are some valuable trends that add even more value to this play.
Milwaukee is 11-2 ATS in home games off a road loss by 10 points or more over the last 3 seasons and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a home underdog, while Denver is just 5-15 ATS in their last 20 games as a road favorite of 0.5-4.5.
John Ryan
Georgetown vs. DePaul
Play: Georgetown -9
5* graded play on Georgetown as they take on DePaul in Big East action set to start at 7:00 PM ET. My proprietary simulator and statistical database shows a high probability that Georgetown will win this game by 10 or more points. There are two systems supporting this play with one working for a play on GT and the other to play against Depaul. The first one has posted a 30-8 ATS mark for 79% winners since 1997. Play against home dogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points that are average three point shooting teams making between 32 and 36.5% of their shot attempts and now facing a solid three point shooting defense allowing <=32%, and after two straight games making 37% or less of their shot attempts. The second system has posted a solid 38-13 ATS mark for 75% winners since 2006. The second system has produced a 38-13 ATS mark for 75% winners since 2006. Play on a road team that is an excellent defensive team allowing 80% over the last two seasons. GT is off a 69-49 blowout win over St. johns and easily covered the seven point spread. GT is a perfect 8-0 ATS after a blowout win by 20 points or more over the last 2 seasons. Take the Hoyas!
Dave Price
1 Unit Golden State Warriors +2.5
The Warriors have been a nice underdog investment of late, going 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog and 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games as a road underdog of 4.5 points or less. The Cavaliers are 8-20 ATS in their last 28 games as a favorite, 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games as a home favorite and 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games as a home favorite of 4.5 or fewer points. The Warriors have won the last two in this series straight up, and they are 5-0 ATS in the last 5 matchups. Take Golden State.
DAVID BANKS
Clippers / Jazz 190.5
A pro hardwood confrontation between second place teams is set to go on Tuesday night when Blake Griffin and the Los Angeles Clippers (6-3, 5-4 ATS) invade EnergySolutions Arena to battle Paul Millsap and the Utah Jazz (8-4, 7-5 ATS); tip-off from Salt Lake City, UT is set to go live on Fox-West and ROOT (UTAH) starting at 9:00 ET.
Habitually ranking out in the bottom of the Pacific Division standings for what seems like forever, the Los Angeles Clippers have been on a steady incline ever since selecting Blake Griffin in the NBA Draft. Though he missed a bulk of his 2010-11 campaign, he made an impact a year ago that earned him Rookie of the Year accolades and the third-year big man with ridiculous athleticism has run with it to make the Clippers one of the hottest tickets in Tinseltown. Most recently, the Clippers let it be known that they werent going to be playing second fiddle to the Lakers anymore by beating Kobe Bryant and their hated rivals by a 102-94 final count as short 2.5-point favorites. The win was the teams second in a row both SU & ATS after getting the best of LeBron James and the Miami Heat in overtime their previous game. Lob City will look to secure its seventh win of the season at home where it will host the New Jersey Nets on MLK Day before hitting the road for this one; LAs 1-2 SU & ATS on the road to date.
The Jazz were by far the laughing stock of the league at the outset of the strike shortened season after getting rolled up in three of their first four games and getting beaten by an average of 19 points per game. However since then, Head Coach Tyrone Corbins squad has rattled off wins in seven of their L/8 (6-2 ATS) with only an overtime loss at home to the Lakers on the resume during that stretch; not too shabby for a Jazz squad void of any superstar talent! Center Al Jefferson (18.7 PPG) and forwards Paul Millsap (15.6 PPG) and Josh Howard (10.7 PPG) are the only double-digit scorers on the roster, with the prior two leading the team in rebounding with 8.9 & 8.6 RPG respectively. The Jazz rank amongst the top 15 in points scored (#14 at 94.7 PPG) and allowed (#15 at 94.7 PPG), and have outboarded their opposition by half a rebound per game. Theyve successfully defended their court six out of seven times and covered the closing number in five of those contests.
Utah has flat out dominated this match-up dating back to 2008 winning nine of the 10 overall meetings while covering the oddsmakers number in eight of those games; the over has cashed in each of the L/3 meetings but the O/U is split at 5-5 the L/10. Utahs won each of the L/5 games they hosted the Clippers by an average of 15.6 PPG but only won last years confrontations by a bucket. LAs 4-1 ATS its L/5 versus Northwest Division opposition while the Jazz stand just 2-6 ATS their L/8 against the Pacific Division, but the home team has covered 15 of the L/22 in this conference rivalry.