Free Picks: Service Plays for Wednesday, January 19,2011

Marc Lawrence

Virginia at Boston College
Play: Boston College

Led by four returning starters, Boston College clearly has conference payback on their minds this season. After suffering through a 15-16 2009 campaign that included a 6-11 ACC record, the Eagles have come out of the gates soaring. First-year HC Steve Donahue has BC off to a 13-4 start, including a perfect 3-0 in conference play. Those three conference wins (Maryland, Georgia Tech, NC State) avenged last season losses but the biggest is yet to come. Not only did the Cavaliers knock the Eagles out of last year?s ACC Tourney but the loss also ensured Boston College?s second losing season in three years. With BC 7-1 SU and ATS in its last seven conference home games with revenge, look for the payback to continue. Virginia?s 1-9 ATS log after dueling with the Dukies is the cement. We recommend a 1-unit play on Boston College.

Tom Freese

New York Knicks at Houston Rockets
Prediction: New York Knicks

Houston is 19-23 straight up this year. The Rockets are 3-8-2 ATS their last 13 games overall. The Rockets are 6-18 ATS their last 24 Wednesday games. Houston is 2-6-1 ATS their last 9 games when playing with one day of rest. New York is 22-18 straight up this year. The Knicks are 21-9 ATS their last 30 games overall and they are 16-5 ATS their last 21 road games. New York is 43-21-1 ATS their last 65 road games vs. a team with winning home record. The Knicks are 17-5 ATS after scoring 10 or more points in their last game.

VEGAS EXPERTS

Washington Wizards at Milwaukee Bucks

Really? The oddsmakers are only making us lay seven points against the Wizards on the road? Washington is a pathetic 0-19 SU in road games this season (5-14 ATS) and for the first time in a long time comes in off BB wins. So far this season, the Wiz are just 1-10 ATS off a straight up win. They lose by an average of 12 PPG on the road. The Bucks are 6-1 ATS head to head vs. Washington and 9-1 ATS at home off BB road losses the last two seasons. Lay the points.

Play on: Milwaukee

SEAN MURPHY

Iowa @ Ohio State
Pick: Ohio St -19.5

The first meeting between the Hawkeyes and Buckeyes this season was a close one, with Ohio State pulling out a 73-68 road victory. In fact, the last six matchups in this series have been relatively close, with Iowa going 5-1 ATS.

I expect to see a different story unfold on Wednesday.

Ohio State took that earlier meeting over in the second half, outscoring the Hawkeyes by 11 points en route to a five-point win. If it weren't for Iowa's sharp shooting from beyond the arc (46.7%), that game wouldn't have been close. The Buckeyes shot an impressive 55.4% in the game, and got just about whatever they wanted at the offensive end of the floor. I don't see how anything changes tonight.

What will change is Ohio State's defensive focus. The Buckeyes continue to win games, but lately we've seen them suffer more than a few defensive lapses and check into this one riding a four-game ATS losing streak. This is a nice spot for them to get it right against an Iowa team that has been held to just 52 and 59 points in two Big Ten road games - shooting a combined 41-for-111 (37%).

Keep in mind, Iowa has been awful defensively in recent games, allowing its last five opponents to shoot 53.5%.

I'm confident that Ohio State can approach 80 points in this game, but I don't see the Hawkeyes getting to 60. Iowa is coming off an ATS win against Minnesota last time out, and that's key as the Hawkeyes own a miserable 1-8 ATS mark in their last nine games following a pointspread cover. Take Ohio State.

Tom Stryker

Washington @ Milwaukee
PICK: Milwaukee -7

Off a pair of surprising straight up home wins over Toronto and Utah, Washington will get a quick reality check when it visits Milwaukee on Wednesday night. The Wizards are 0-for-the-2010-11 road sporting a nasty 0-19 SU and 6-13 ATS record and this trip to Wisconsin will be a tough encore.

Off two or more straight up wins and running against a rested opponent, Washington has struggled something fierce notching a pathetic 46-80 SU and 44-81-1 ATS record including just 16-58 SU and 23-50-1 ATS priced as a dog in this role. This series hasn't been magical for the Wizards either. In the last 36 meetings against the Bucks, Washington has produced a soft 14-22 SU and 12-23-1 ATS record including just 6-10 SU and 4-11-1 ATS in this role checking in off a straight up win.

Off three consecutive losses to San Antonio, Philadelphia and Houston, Milwaukee will be champing to get back on the winning track. According to my NBA database, the Bucks have ripped off an impressive 33-16 SU and 29-19-1 ATS mark at home arriving off a straight up loss including a juicy 28-5 SU and 22-10-1 ATS priced as a favorite or pick. With those two parameters in play and Milwaukee battling a conference foe, this team trend explodes to a phenomenal 20-1 SU and 16-4-1 ATS!

The Bucks last five home games were against San Antonio, Miami, Dallas, Atlanta and Utah and they were fortunate enough to at least win one of those against the Mavs. Washington is a serious step down in class compared to those juggernauts so expect head coach Scott Skiles' troops to take control early and cruise to an easy victory. Take Milwaukee.

Scott Spreitzer

Indiana @ Golden State
PICK: Golden State -4

I had the Warriors on these pages on Monday and we cashed the ticket. As I said on Monday, the Warriors are getting healthy and along the way they're putting "greenbacks" in your pocket. Golden State is on a 10-3 ATS run and they just handed the improved LA Clippers a 122-112 loss before the win and cover on Monday afternoon. Getting healthier by the day and playing just their third game since Friday night, I expect the Warriors to slam the struggling Pacers without much trouble. Indiana is on a 2-8-1 ATS slide away from home, while the Warriors have covered six in a row at this venue. I'm laying the points with Golden State on Wednesday.

Jim Feist

Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Los Angeles Clippers
Play: Minnesota Timberwolves +7

You need a big body to throw at Blake Griffin up front, and Minnesota has one in Kevin Love, a rebounding monster in this own right. The Timberwolves are also one of the best three-point shooting teams in the league at .389%, tied for No. 3. They face a Clippers team that allows 39% shooting from beyond the arc -- tied for second worst. The young uptempo visitors have more than enough to hang within this number. Play the Timberwolves.

John Ryan

Phoenix Suns vs. Cleveland Cavaliers
Play: Cleveland Cavaliers +8

5* graded play on Cleveland as they host Phoenix set to start at 7:00 PM ET in NBA action. My proprietary sports handicapping database and simulator shows a high probability that Cleveland will lose this game by fewer than seven points. Cleveland is arguably the worst team in the league, but Phoenix is three games under 500 and no team that ranks 30th in scoring defense allowing 109.3 points per game should be favored by seven points in a road game. Phoenix allows 12.5 offensive boards per game reflecting extremely poor defense and fundamental rebounding. The simulator shows that Cleveland will get between 10 and 15 offensive boards in this game. Note that Cleveland is a solid 30-16 ATS in home games when they grab 10 to 15 offensive rebounds in a game over the last three seasons. Phoenix is just 6-19 ATS (-14.9 Units) in road games after allowing 55 points or more in the first half in 2 straight games over the last 3 seasons. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 37-17 using the money line that has made 32.5 units since 2005. Play against any team using the money line off an upset win as a dog facing an opponent off three or more consecutive road losses. Take Cleveland and add a 2* amount on the Money Line.

Craig Trapp

Iowa vs. Ohio State
Play: Iowa +20

Love playing against newly #1 ranked teams as they usually have big letdown. Last year this angle won ATS in 5 of 6 times we did it. Iowa also has covered last three game against OSU. Iowa actually matches up well with OSU and think they keep this around 10 pts comfortably in a safe cover. OSU wins but no way they cover 20.

Jimmy Boyd

1 Unit on Boston Celtics -11.5

Boston will be out to avenge a 12-point loss at Detroit late last month. Kevin Garnett suffered a calf injury in the 1st quarter of that game and Rajon Rondo didn't play at all. With these two in the lineup, we can expect a much different result this time around. "We look like a totally different team out there," forward Paul Pierce said. "You can't replace what Kevin gives to a ballclub. ... He raises everyone's play when he's on the court." This was certainly the case in his return against the Orlando Magic Monday. Plus, it will be even more important to have Rondo in the lineup. Everything the Celtics do goes through the league leader in assists. Rondo dominated the Pistons while dishing out 17 assists in a 109-86 win at Detroit on Nov. 2. Boston is 10-1 ATS over the last 3 seasons when revenging a road loss vs. an opponent of 10 points or more. Lastly, the Pistons are just 3-7 ATS in the last 10 meetings in this series. Bet Boston.

MTi Sports

Memphis Grizzlies at New Orleans Hornets
Prediction: Memphis Grizzlies

The Hornets have won five straight since losing 101-97 to the Lakers in LA on the 7th. They scored many upsets, but in their last game they were almost an upset victim, as the got by the Raptors 85-81 after trailing throughout most of the game. We expect another ?tired? effort from the Hornets here.

New Orleans is 0-12 ATS as a favorite with at most one day of rest after a game in which they had an assist to turnover ratio of at least two and 0-9 ATS (-9.9 ppg) as a favorite with at most one day of rest after a game in which their field goal attempt per turnover ratio was at least eight.

Also, New Orleans is 0-6 ATS (-7.8 ppg) with at least a day of rest after a win in which David West was the Hornets' high scorer and 0-5-1 ATS after a win in which Chris Paul scored fewer than 10 points.

Memphis is off a bad home loss to the Bulls in which Rudy Gay was 1-of-10 from the field with NO assists. Marc Gasol was a efficient 5-of-7 from the floor in just 26:22 of PT. We look for them to bounce-back in this spot.

Memphis is 5-0 ATS (+9.1 ppg) after a game in which they had fewer than fifteen assists, 5-0 ATS (+9.6 ppg) after a loss in which they were outshot by at least 10 percent and 9-0 ATS (9.9 ppg) when their next game is at home.

Also, the Grizzlies are 6-0 ATS (+9.1 ppg) THIS season on the road after a loss in which Rudy Gay had more turnovers than assists and 6-0-1 ATS on the road after a loss at home in which Marc Gasol shot better than 60% from the field.

Finally, Memphis is a perfect 5-0 ATS since the start of the 2009-10 season after a home loss in which Rudy Gay shot worse than 33% from the field, covering by an average of 13.5 ppg and winning every game straight up. Grab the points.

Tony George

Xavier vs. St Bonaventure
Play: Xavier -5

The Musketeers are on fire and I do not see St. Bonny even hanging tight here, even at home. When the Musketeers lose it is to good teams and they are simply blowing out weak oppoenents and I see no way that St Bonny can trade punches on offense in this one boys, a short and sweet writeup, but Xavier is going to shoot them out of the gym tonight, a short number for a better team who is explosive against a team who has recently struggled to score points. This line has jumped a full point for a reason, lay it.

Chip Chirimbes

Indiana Pacers vs. Golden State Warriors
Play: Indiana Pacers +4

It doesn't appear that either of these two clubs will make the playoffs but we can still make money of them as both the Indiana Pacers (16-22, #17-19-2) and Golden State Warriors (22-17-1) have turned profits for their backer in recent weeks. The Warriors are on a 12-4 ATS run while the Pacers have gotten the cash in six of their last nine. Indiana is 12-4 against the points in their last 16 meetings with Golden State and they get the 'money' again tonight! PACERS!

David Chan

Columbus Blue Jackets @ Florida Panthers
PICK: Florida Panthers

I bet value where I see it and believe that the Panthers are going to shred the Jackets this evening, as Columbus comes into this contest off a 3-2 shootout loss in Tampa Bay last night.

The Blue Jackets will also be playing against the "revenge factor" tonight, as they've taken three of the last four in this series, including having outscored Florida 6-1 over the last two-meetings (note though that the Blue Jackets are on a 1-9-4 run away from friendly confines).

Our sources tell us that Mathieu Garon will get the start between the pipes for the struggling Jackets; Garon has lost six-straight and is 2-2-0 lifetime vs. Florida.

Florida is 3-0-1 on a six game home stand; it will be looking to return to form after blowing a two-goal lead in a 3-2 shootout loss to the Thrashers on Monday.

The Panthers have been extremely effective with their power kill unit; opponents are 0-14 with the man advantage over their past four-games.

Tomas Vokoun is 7-2 his last nine vs. Columbus.

All signs point to the FLORIDA PANTHERS as the sharp wager in this contest.