DAVE COKIN
NEVADA AT WYOMING
PLAY: NEVADA +3.5
It’s the second time around already for MWC rivals Nevada and Wyoming. The Wolf Pack won the first meeting in Reno, and they’ll go for the series sweep tonight at Laramie.
Nevada has shown some real improvement this season. The Wolf Pack have already exceeded their win total from a year ago, and with Eric Musselman now running the show, fans in Reno have a right to be excited about the future of the program. As for Wyoming, even with the rock solid Larry Shyatt in charge, the Cowboys figured to be down some this season, and that has indeed been the case.
The first game between these two teams was very competitive, with Nevada earning a 71-68 decision. That was a pretty tight game throughout, with eight points the greatest separation at any point. I’d expect more of the same this evening.
Tempo figures to be a key tonight. Nevada wants to push the ball and Wyoming wants to go the snail route. This is clearly a push vs. shove duel with two dramatically different philosophies going head to head. Being that this game is in Laramie, I won’t be surprised if Shyatt wins the pace battle.
But that doesn’t mean that Wyoming automatically gets the win by slowing the Wolf Pack down. Breaking down this game categorically, the fact is that the guys from Reno get multiple check marks when matched up head to head with the Cowboys.
I think a vital factor tonight will be Wyoming’s accuracy from the field. If the Cowboys are able to knock down shots on a regular basis, the scattershot Wolf Pack could be in trouble. But in looking at what took place in the first game. even that’s not an absolute. In that matchup, Wyoming did a terrific job hitting their threes, got to the foul line on a more frequent basis, won the offensive glass battle, and still lost the basketball game. What that tells me is that Nevada was able to garner a win in spite of not having a great game statistically, and I think that bodes fairly well for them tonight.
The revenge factor is in play for Wyoming, but Shyatt is just 6-9 outright in conference revenge games since returning to the Wyoming sidelines. In fairness, he’s done okay when trying to avenge a road loss, while actually going 0-7 when it’s the other way around. I also see that revenge angle being in the line to a minimal extent, as I made this game Wyoming -2. But this is more on matchup than value for me, and I see Nevada having a good chance to win again on that count. I’ll take the available points with the Wolf Pack tonight.
Sleepyj
Cleveland -12.5
Teams coming off blowout losses are often times good wagers...I like this one here tonight with the Cavs..If this game was played in Cleveland, i might actually stay away from the Cavs...This one is on the road however, so it may in fact be a challenge for the Cavs..I expect them to be on high alert here tonight...The way they got beat the other night by Golden St. was an all out embarrassment..The Cavaliers should be a bit salty for this one tonight...These teams matched up back in November in Cleveland.....Brooklyn gave the Cavs a tough game in fact..Cavs almost had to go into OT if Lebron doesn't hit a game winning shot with a few ticks left on the clock...Lebron and Love both had 26 pts in that contest..Nets are a little different from then though..Jarrett Jack is now sidelined and the Nets are ice cold right now...Nets have lost 8 out of the last 10 games....Nets have allowed teams to eclipse the century mark in 8 of the last 10...Lebron is now being questioned if he is the best player in the league..According to the highlights and the hardware right now, Steph Curry looks to be the man..I'm sure that doesn;t sit well with the so called "King"....Cavs will remember that fight at home Vs. Brooklyn..They will also remember the beat down they just incurred...I look for the Cavs to finish tonight on all levels..On the offense and defensive ends of the floor..To assist the ball and to rebound here tonight..Create turnovers and most of all to finish at the end of every quarter...Cavs have 4 home games after this road game..I expect them to get this one over early tonight..Clippers are on deck and the entire Cavs team will play lights out IMO...Bunch of points to lay here on the road, but I think the Cavs come with a big effort and Lebron James tries to silence the critics in this one.
Rob Vinciletti
UCF vs. South Florida
Play: UCF -2½
UCF has won all 6 times vs losing teams. They have covered 3 of 4 after scoring 80 or more points in their last game and are 6-0 to the spread as a favorite. Tonight they take on South Florida who is a dismal 7-42 vs winning teams, including 0-12 this season. USF has failed to cover 20 of 27 in games where the total is 135 to 140. Look for Central Florida to get the win and cover.
Jim Feist
Hawks vs. Blazers
Olay: Over 208½
These are a pair of attacking offenses that like to run, with Atlanta No. 9 in the NBA in points scored, Portland No. 14. Atlanta is on a 12-4 run over the total and the over is 8-2 playing on one days rest. Portland has quietly run 4 of the last 5, on a 4-1 spread run. They are home from a three-game road trip, winning at Washington as a dog, 108-98. Portland is 6-1 over the total playing on one days rest, plus 10-4-1 over vs. the NBA Southeast.
Mike Lundin
Celtics vs. Raptors
Play: Raptors -3
The Raptors are on a roll and will be looking to make it a season-high six wins in a row as they host Atlantic Division rivals the Boston Celtics Wednesday night. Toronto is 6-1 ATS versus division opponents this season and this looks like a good spot to back the red hot Raptors. The Celtics are off a 118-113 OT upset loss at Dallas Monday and will play their third road game in five days, a pretty rough spot. They're 0-4 ATS in their last four when visiting a team with a winning home record have already suffered one defeat against the Raptors this season as they lost 113-103 when the Raptors came to Boston back in October.
Scott Spreitzer
Wichita State vs. Northern Iowa
Play: Wichita State -6½
The Shockers struggled a bit early in the season, but once all hands returned, the Mo-Valley front-runners got right back on track. And while many had the Shockers advancing to the Sweet-16 and beyond before the season began, most also realized this would be a rebuilding year for Ben Jacobsen at Northern Iowa. The Panthers lost a few key hands from last year's squad and have now dropped four of their last five games SU & ATS. In fact, UNI has not won two straight games since beating North Texas on November 30, and they're 5-8 SU in their last 13 games, overall. The Panthers' biggest problem is on the defensive end where they rank 221st in FG percentage allowed. Wichita State, on a 7-2 SU run (6-2-1 ATS) in this series, won those seven games by an average margin of 15 ppg. They have held their last three opponents to 35%, 33%, and 37% shooting, with the closest margin of victory coming by 16 points. The Shockers have been a momentum team under Gregg Marshall, posting a 9-0 SU/ATS mark on the road after winning three straight games by at least 15 points each. I expect the streak to continue. Northern Iowa will be pumped when this one tips-off, but I don't believe they'll hang around down the stretch.
Jesse Schule
Atlanta Hawks vs. Portland Trail Blazers
Play: Portland Trail Blazers +2
The Blazers are back home after winning two of three on the road, and they will be an underdog to the visiting Hawks. Atlanta is coming off consecutive home wins, but it's lost it's last two road games at Milwaukee and Charlotte. The Hawks have a .500 record on the road, and they've lost four of their last away from Atlanta. They've failed to cover in seven of their last eight versus Northwest Division opponents. Portland shot a season high 54.8 percent from beyond the arc in a 108-98 win at Washington on Monday, and C.J. McCollum was 6-of-10 with three pointers in the victory. Only the Golden State Warriors are averaging more made three-pointers per game (11.7) than the Blazers (11.1). I don't like Atlanta's chances playing on the road out West against a hot Portland team.
Ricky Tran
Cleveland vs. Brooklyn
Play: Cleveland -12½
Cleveland will come in pissed off after Monday's embarrassing blowout loss to the Warriors. A matchup with the lowly Nets could be just what the doctor ordered to get back on track though. Brooklyn has lost 3 straight and 8 of its last 9. It lost 112-100 at Toronto on Monday and it is 1-8 ATS in its last 9 games overall. The Nets still have interim coach Tony Brown in charge and the uncertainty around who will take over as head coach must be tearing on the team.
Power Sports
Cleveland vs. Brooklyn
Pick: Brooklyn
Conventional wisdom would say that the Cavs will be "out for blood" here following a humiliating home loss (by 34!) to the Warriors Monday. But I anticipate that Brooklyn won't be lacking for motivation either as they're still looking to turn things around after a coaching change. This is too many points to lay on the road.
Cleveland isn't likely to play a worse game all season than they did their last time out. Still though, the oddsmakers are smart enough to anticipate the public sentiment that LeBron and company will want to "bounce back" here and thus have inflated this line. Consider that when the Cavs hosted Brooklyn back in November (won by only 2), they were just nine-point favorites. Granted, the Nets are a lot worse off now than they were back then, but it still seems to me that we're getting plenty of "free" points to work with in this spot.
Remember, I went against the Cavs Monday. I also cashed the Under in Thursday's loss to the Spurs. So, I've got a pretty good read on this team right now. Similarly, I also had Brooklyn on Monday and it looked like they would roll to an easy cover, and possible outright win, but they faded late in Toronto (pushed at +12). Having dropped eight of their last night (1-7-1 ATS), the Nets are in dire need of a strong performance. I think they'll stay within the number here as Cleveland is just 4-13 ATS this season when facing a team w/ a losing record.
Larry Ness
Cleveland vs. Brooklyn
Pick: Cleveland
The Cleveland Cavaliers had won eight straight games before losing a hard-fought 99-95 decision at San Antonio last Thursday. The Cavs completed their road trip with a 91-77 win at Houston and then returned home for a showdown Monday (MLK Day) with the Golden St Warriors. Few DON’T know that outcome of that one, as the Cavs fell flat on their faces. The Cavaliers fell behind by 30 in the first half and allowed the lead to grow to as much as 43 in a 132-98 home loss. LBJ (15-5-5) was a non-factor while Love (1 of 5 for three points) and Irving (3 of 11 for eight points) were downright embarrassing. Kyrie Irving told reporters before that game that Cleveland needed to “make a statement” against the Warriors. I think it’s fair to say tat the csav didn’t make the “right” statement.
Cleveland still owns the best record in the Eastern Conference at 28-11 but is having some trouble against the best teams from around the league. “Against the top teams, you want to play well, and we haven’t done that,” James said “We’re 0-3 versus the top two teams in the West (Golden State and San Antonio). We’re 0-1 against the Bulls so far. We’ve got to play better basketball. We’ve got a long way to go.” Brooklyn (11-31) is undoubtedly not one of the top teams around the league and interim head coach Tony Brown is trying to guide the team while dealing with constant rumors about who will replace him as coach and who might be his next boss as general manager.
The Nets have lost 11 of their last 12 at home, while the Cavs have won SEVEN of their last eight on the road. During Cleveland’s eight-game winning streak (prior to the loss in San Antonio), Cleveland was averaging 108.9 PPG and the fact that when these teams last met (back on Nov 28), Cleveland had to rally in the final 2:45 of the first meeting this season, as LBJ needed to hit an eight-footer with ONE second left to secure a 90-88 victory, should have the Cavs’ attention. That, plus wanting to clean up the ‘stench’ from the team’s AWFUL performance vs the Warriors.
The Nets should play the perfect foil here, as they enter having dropped three in a row and EIGHT of nine with the defeats coming by an average of 15.6 PPG.
SPORTS WAGERS
Buffalo +132 over COLORADO
OT included. While we like the Avalanche as a pooch, we can’t get behind them when they’re favored in this range. Colorado has won two of its past three games but those victories occurred against Winnipeg and New Jersey. In between those victories was a loss to the Jackets. Prior to that, the Avs were buried by Chicago and Tampa Bay by a combined score of 10-3. The Avs return home from a brief two game trip in Columbus and Winnipeg and they have a much more important game on deck Tuesday when the Blues visit the Pepsi Center. While all games are important in this tightly contested race to get into the playoffs, the Sabres are a team that the Avalanche rarely see so there are no scores to settle. In terms of situational wagering, this could very well be a vulnerable spot for the host.
Conversely, the Sabres may have a score to settle here. You see, the last time the Sabres defeated Colorado was back in December of 2005, a span of more than a decade. It’s only been nine games over those 10 years but it’s still a monkey that the Sabres are surely aware of and surely want to get off their backs. More than that, however, is that the Sabres have won four of five with only loss over that span occurring against the Bruins. During this current run, Buffalo has victories over Minnesota, Winnipeg Washington and Arizona. Three of those four wins occurred on the road. The Sabres’ player’s dads joined them on this two-game trip to Arizona and Colorado and it’s a real bonus for these young guys to have their fathers along for it. They also play hard because they do not want to embarrass their dad in front of the other dads. It’s very simply the human element at work here. The price and situation here is certainly in the Sabres favor. Colorado, like many of the NHL’s second or third tier group is beatable on its best day and we’re suggesting this isn’t going to be their best day.
Scott Rickenbach
Hawks vs. Blazers
Play: Hawks -1½
The Hawks have won 11 of their last 16 games but they lost their past two road games. That ensures the proper focus here as Atlanta begins a 4 game road trip against Western Conference foes. The Hawks have won each of their three prior meetings with the Trail Blazers and I look for continued series domination tonight as Atlanta is catching Portland at the ideal time to get the road win. The Blazers just returned from a successful 2-1 road trip back east but they faced three teams with losing records including the hapless Sixers and Nets. Tonight Portland will be taking a big step up in class to face a solid Hawks team and Atlanta truly has the travel edge here since they are off of back to back home games and the Blazers come in off of three straight road games. The Hawks knocked off Orlando by 17 points on Monday and Atlanta is 37-23 ATS the past three seasons when off of a win by a double digit margin. The Hawks are also 25-13 ATS in January games the past three seasons combined. Portland has gone 15-23 ATS in January games the past three seasons combined and the Trail Blazers are also 12-19 ATS in home games with a posted total between 205 and 209.5 points.
SPORTS WAGERS
SETON HALL +7½ over Villanova
The Wildcats have been paying off like a broken slot machine. Since the beginning of the 2013/14 season up to its very last game against Georgetown, Villanova has gone an incredible 56-27 against the spread. The ‘Cats are coming off an historic 33-3 campaign and they’re off to another great start this year with a 16-2 overall record, which includes a perfect 6-0 mark in conference play. There is nothing fluky about the Wildcats' success. With such a stranglehold on the league, all it takes is a small regression to offer bettors opportunity. Last year's regular season for ‘Nova was for all intents and purposes perfect. Keep in mind there was literally no time lost to injury out of Villanova's core group of players. With the losses of valuable seniors Darrun Hilliard and JayVaughn Pinkston and Dylan Ennis (transferred to Oregon), covering numbers at such a high clip appears unrealistic. This isn't the type of team you sit back and blindly fade from here on in but there are going to be prime spots and prices to bet against this squad and we trust we found one such case here.
Villanova’s two losses this year came against two ranked teams in Oklahoma and Virginia. The Wildcats didn’t just lose, they lost by 23 and 11 points respectively. The only other two ranked team the ‘Cats played was Xavier and Butler and while they whacked the Musketeers, they won by just five over Butler. 14 days ago, the Wildcats were a 15½-point home favorite over Seton Hall and defeated them by just nine. ‘Nova led by seven at the half and the Pirates hung around throughout with a terrific second half. That score is a little misleading as well, as the Wildcats kept clanging shots off the rim but forward Daniel Ochefu played like a man possessed and kept cleaning up all those missed shots. Villanova is on a serious roll with 49 wins and five losses since the start of last year. To back them here, you are paying a serious premium and that’s something we cannot get behind. Besides that, Seton Hall is absolutely improved but their 3-2 conference mark has them far under the radar.
Things got really bad for Seton Hall last season with locker room issues and the Pirates' two best players and co-alpha dogs, Isaiah Whitehead and Sterling Gibbs, unable to coexist on the floor at the same time. Gibbs is gone, leaving the talented Whitehead in charge. The Pirates have a 20-point win over a greatly improved Marquette squad. They have a notable out-of-conference 12-point victory over Ole Miss. They have a notable road victory over Providence by nine points. Overall the Pirates are a quiet 13-4. Head coach Kevin Willard is brilliant in his preparation and matchups, getting the right people on the floor at the right time. Now Willard has had two weeks to look at game film from his previous encounter with Villanova 14 days ago. The Hall won't garner much betting attention here because all focus is on the Wildcats and that provides us with this outstanding buy-low/sell high opportunity. Upset possibility.
Alex Smart
St. Joe's vs. Pennsylvania
Play: St. Joe's -11
While its never an optimal wager, from a long term perspective, to lay DDs in any sport with a road team, there are circumstances when an inevitable discrepancy in talent makes such a wager viable. So what Im betting on tonight when a powerful St.Joseph's Atlantic 10 basketball program visits Pennsylvania, is that they come into this game motivated enough to showcase their superiority and coast to what under 9 out of 10 opportunities would be a easy victory. From a mathematical perspective my own numbers make St.Joe's 12 point favs so, thus there is value on the line , all be it just a slight edge. Also the Hawks who are 10-1 in their L/11, are playing in only their second game this week,, and dont play for three more days after tonight, and will have plenty of gas in the proverbial tank to run this game, like its a track meet. Note: Penn has also been off since Jan 9th and being rusty against this kind of foe is never a good thing.
Jimmy Boyd
Michigan State -14
Coming off back-to-back losses and a huge home game against Maryland on deck, this is the definition of a must-win game for Michigan State if they want to stay in the race for the Big Ten regular season title. I look for the Spartans to come out as focused and motivated as we have seen them all season and I just don't see Nebraska putting up much of a fight.
The Cornhuskers come in having won 3 straight, but that's come against 3 of the bottom feeders in the Big Ten in Rutgers, Minnesota and Illinois. Prior to that Nebraska had lost their first 3 conference games by at least 9 points and two of those came at home. The Cornhuskers are not a good road team and are way outclassed in terms of talent.
Michigan State not only is going to be motivated here off two game skid, but they will be out for revenge against the Cornhuskers, who have won each of the last two meetings in the series, including a shocking 60-51 win in their last visit to Michigan State. The Spartans also are going to want to make a statement on their home floor after getting embarrassed in their last home game by Iowa (59-76).
Spartans are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 as a home favorite of 12.5 or more points, 11-2 ATS in their last 13 after losing 2 of their last 3 and 20-7 in their last 27 off a conference loss by 3 points or less. Nebraska is 2-10 ATS in their last 12 road games after covering 4 or more consecutive games and 4-14 ATS in their last 18 road games after scoring 75 or more in back-to-back games.