Bruce Marshall
Vanderbilt -2.5
After slumping in late December, Vandy might be putting its season back together, as last week's wins over Auburn and Alabama suggest. The Commodores finally have a healthy look, with versatile 7-footer Luke Kornet (combined 17 boards and 12 blocks vs. the Tigers & Tide!) having recently returned to active duty. Meanwhile, UT could be a bit compromised if effective 6-4 F Armani Moore (who does much of his work in the paint) remains sidelined with an ankle injury that kept him out of last Saturday's game vs. Mississippi State. Coach Kevin Stallings also won't have to remind his troops that the Vols knocked Vandy out of the SEC Tourney in an upset result last March.
Dave Essler
West Virginia -11.5
I do like the over here as well - I expect, at home, WVU to rebound and take it out on Texas. In Conference-only play, WVU is the #1 defending team and #1 in creating turnovers, and steals, as you'd expect. But they are also #1 in all three categories in the nation, Big 12 play or not. That's something I can get behind. Texas is the worst offensive rebounding team in the Conference, and they are a terrible FT shooting team (admittedly WVU isn't much better, but they get there a whole lot more). The game will be played fast, and although Texas has a deep bench, West Virginia has a deeper one. WVU's closest home game was the 11 point win over Kansas. Texas' only road win was a two point win at Stanford. Texas is at Kansas Satuday - a bigger "rivalry", if you will. It's a huge "must win" for WVU, who fly back out to play T-Tech this weekend. In the end, WVU has just about every way to win this game, offensively or defensively, as you want if you were to lay chalk.
Wunderdog
Miami @ Washington
Pick: Miami +4.5
The Washington Wizards sure looked like a team on the rise last year, but at the midway point of the season they are a disappointing 19-21, and appear to be a stretch to make the playoffs. Despite the LeBron James departure a couple of years ago, the Miami Heat still have enough pieces to be a playoff team. At 23-19 so far, they have done a good enough job to be considered. The Heat have done it with defense, as they rank fourth in the league in allowing opponents 95 points or less 17 times on the season. Since December 1st, the Wizards have allowed 103.7 points per game, and that keeps holding this team back. Against a team that yields very little, they are going to be in trouble in this one as they have been out-scored by over eight points per game when facing a team that allows fewer than 96 points per game.
Drew Martin
Nebraska at Michigan State
Play: Under 142
Two teams heading in opposite directions will meet tonight in East Lansing. The visiting Cornhuskers come in on a three-game winning streak to face the Spartans who are on a two-game losing skid. Michigan State was overpowered by up-and-coming Iowa last Thursday and then lost a heartbreaker on the road in Madison. More important is that MSU lost the leader of their team in starting point guard Tum Tum Nairn who is prized by head coach Tom Izzo for pushing the pace on offense. Izzo said he didn't know when Nairn would be back but would not play against Nebraska. Michigan State ranks 39th in the nation in defensive adjusted efficiency which is a step up in class from what Nebraska has faced to this point this year with an opponent’s defensive efficiency ranking of 181st. This combined with the fact that Nairn is out should mean a different offensive philosophy for the Spartans the next couple games: “The guy does a lot for us,” Izzo said. “He’s one of those guys that the players appreciate and so that was a big loss for us. We think we could have ran them. Unlike other Wisconsin teams they go to the boards a little bit more which means they’re susceptible to the break. We got a couple right down the middle, we got a couple right in the corners. But it’s no question we’re not as good running without Tum.” Good situation to step in and play the under.
Andrew Lange
UCLA at Oregon State
Play: Under 145
UCLA's schedule through 18 games has been littered with teams that prefer to play with pace or can score at an efficient rate or a combination of both. On the season, the Bruins have faced the 8th toughest schedule in terms of opponent's offensive efficiency. I won't try to portray the Bruins as a good defensive team but tonight should serve as a step down in class as Oregon State's offense has struggled to score at times. And from a situational angle, you would expect both teams to bring effort on the defensive end with this being a very important game as they sit 2-3 in league play. UCLA's Bryce Alford on his team's defense of late: "We go a couple possessions in a row, or even a couple games in a row, where we play pretty decent defense," guard Bryce Alford said. "And then all of a sudden, I don't know what it is, but all of a sudden you have a lot of shutdowns, a lot of places where you break down. And you can't have that." UCLA isn't going to turn into a lock down unit overnight but again, the PAC-12 schedule hasn't been friendly with the Bruins yet to play Cal, Stanford, Colorado, Utah, and Oregon State -- the bottom five squads in the PAC-12 in terms of offensive efficiency in league play. As for OSU, the Beavers are limited on offense with Gary Payton Jr. the only true scorer. The Beavers netted only 107 points on their recent road trip to Boulder and Salt Lake City. Head coach Wayne Tinkle has a pretty strong track record of slowing down the pace of games and trying to grind out wins. We'll look to play this game under the total.
Kevin Rogers
Kansas St. at Baylor
Play: Kansas St.
Baylor has won and covered four straight games since getting blown out at Kansas, as the Bears host Kansas State tonight. The Wildcats are 5-1 ATS in their last six games, while covering in road losses at Texas and Oklahoma. The Bears have beaten K-State by double-digits in each of the past two home matchups, while blowing out Oklahoma State and TCU at home in conference play this season. K-State has been one of the best underdog bets this season at 5-1-1 ATS when getting points, as I'll back them at Baylor.
Greg Shaker
Colorado / Washington Under 77.5 1st Half
This Number has been crazy with the Full Game Number jumping from the open of 157.5 all the way up to 164-ish at most books. That has actually given us a solid betting opportunity for the game and the 1st Half. Our Database shows 1st Half is the superior play here. As always the 1st Half Total is around 47% of the game total in case you did not know that. If you don't bet 1st Half Totals then you might not. I did see a 78.5 pop up for a few minutes and some books do have the 78 here. I would just get the best number that you can.
King Creole
Thunder -9.5
Yes, we're aware that the Thunder played last night in the thin air of Denver. But we'll still lay the points tonight against the Charlotte Hornets. Ok City has been one of the league's BEST 'no rest' teams as of late. The THUNDER are 8-1 ATS at home with NO REST... including a PERFECT 5-0 ATS in a '0/1' rest situation. And besides...
NBA non-conference home favorites who played the PREVIOUS night in Denver )OK CITY) have gone 7-1 ATS in the last three seasons.
THIS Season: NBA home teams with NO REST off a division game (THUNDER) have gone 23-8 ATS... including a VERY profitable 16-2 ATS versus any opponent off a SU win (Hornets).
The Thunder will need to win this one by DOUBLE-DIGITS for us to cash... as they are currently -9.5 favorites.
17-5 ATS since 2011: All non-conference favorites of -9 > points (THUNDER) off an ATS loss in their last game (Ok City won but did NOT cover last night).
The HORNETS have gone 4-17-2 ATS since 2013 as non-conference underdogs versus any UNRESTED opponent... including 1-8 ATS on the ROAD.
GoodFella
Pistons / Rockets Over 207
I have this total set at 209 so value for me at this number. These Rockets are much more potent offensively when playing on their HOME court. These Pistons are giving up a lot of points the last 2 weeks, and I don't see that changing much tonight vs this Rockets club playing on their home floor. The last meeting between these clubs easily went OVER the total, and I see more of the same here tonight. Bottom line for me is that I have at least 210 points being scored between these teams tonight & I am on the OVER 207.
Tony George
Texas vs. West Virginia
Play: Texas +12
Amazing as this sounds, the Longhorns kind of own Huggy Bear and the Mountaineers as of late, winning 4 out of the last 6 meetings by double digits. The Longhorns have Kansas on deck so this is the most winnable game they have on the docket in the next 5 days and while I do not think Texas can win in here, I think this number is too large. It opened at 12.5, dropped down to 11 and now is back up at a dozen.
Texas is long and athletic and is not getting much respect after wins against Iowa State and Okie St their last 2 games, and remember Texas also beat North Carolina earlier this year and as the season gets longer, wins do not come easy for anyone in the Big 12, just as Kansas who got waxed by Okie St last night. Neither team has been hitting lights out from 3 point range and both teams allow around 71 ppg on defense. Texas is a terrible cover team this year at 5-11 ATS, but as my Insider source in Vegas texted me this morning, there are numerous “Sharps” on Texas tonight and the points and they have played solid their last 2 games despite almost blowing a 23 point lead in their last game.
Dave Price
San Jose State +19.5
San Jose State is vastly improved over a year ago in which it was one of the worst teams in division 1 college basketball. The Spartans continue to be treated like the team they were last year instead of the team they are this year from oddsmakers. As a result, they have gone a very profitable 9-5 ATS in all lined games. They have really been delivering at the pay window since conference play started, going 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games overall. They lost by 7 at Air Force as 9-point dogs, by 15 at SDSU as 19-point dogs, by 1 at home to Colorado State as 6.5-point dogs, and by 7 at Fresno State as 15-point dogs. They also upset Wyoming by 7 as 4-point home dogs. I believe this team to be fully capable of staying within this massive 19.5-point spread at Boise State tonight given what they've shown me thus far in conference play. The Spartans are 10-1-1 ATS in their last 12 road games. The Broncos are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 home games.
Brandon Lee
Cavs / Nets Under 198
I don't think there's any doubt how the Cavaliers are going to come out after getting embarrassed on their home floor by the Warriors in their last game. Cleveland is going to be a pissed off bunch and will be out to make a statement against the Nets. I'm expecting max effort here defensively from the Cavaliers and they should have their way on that side of the ball with a bad Brooklyn offense that only averages 95.7 ppg. Given it's the Cavaliers and they are playing at home, we can also expect to see the Nets give one of their better defensive efforts of the season in this one, which should be more than enough to keep this game well below the mark set here.
Jack Jones
Virginia Tech +13
The Notre Dame Fighting Irish are coming off a huge 95-91 upset road win at Duke as 8.5-point underdogs. It's only human nature for the Fighting Irish to suffer a letdown off such a big win, and I believe that will be the case tonight as they fail to show up with the kind of effort it's going to take to put away Virginia Tech by more than 13 points.
Even if they weren't in a letdown spot, it would be tough for the Fighting Irish to beat the Hokies by this margin. That's because the Hokies are one of the most improved teams in the country this season. They have gone 12-6 on the year, and Buzz Williams is really starting to put his stamp on this program.
The Hokies have opened 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in ACC play this season. They beat NC State 73-68 as 2-point home dogs and Virginia 70-68 as 12.5-point home dogs. They also topped Wake Forest 93-91 as 1-point home favorites before upsetting Georgia Tech 78-77 as 7.5-point road dogs. Their only conference loss came at Duke.
Notre Dame is 8-19 ATS in its last 27 games as a home favorite. The Fighting Irish are 10-23 ATS in all home games over the last three seasons. Notre Dame is 3-12 ATS in its last 15 home games vs. a team with a winning percentage between 60% and 80%. The Hokies are 6-1 ATS in their last seven vs. ACC opponents. The road team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.
Brandon Shively
Heat vs. Wizards
Play: Wizards -4
This Miami team came off a terrible six game road trip on Sunday. They had to come home, pack their bags, and didn't get a chance to practice on Monday night before playing the Bucks as they have to start another road trip. That didn't fare well as they got blow out by the Bucks last night.To make it worse, they are short at the point guard position with Dragic and Beno Udrih out. Tyler Johnson at the point guard might be the worst point guard in the NBA, especially going up against John Wall which might be the mismatch of the season. Dwayne Wade playing on a back to back also is not favorable. The Heat also have more injuries with Josh McRoberts and Chris Anderson out down low and Gerald Green with a bad knew. Also Whiteside has been battling a sore knee. Again, playing on a back to back here does them no favors. Luckily for the Wizards, they got a day off after losing by 10 at home against Portland. After winning four straight, they have now lost two straight. The good news is they are averaging 110 ppg over their last five games and Bradley Beal is back in the lineup. The line for this game gives us value on the Wizards. Look for them to roll tonight with an easy cover.
Jeff Saad
Minnesota at Dallas
Play: Over
Minnesota likes to run behind Andrew Wiggins and Ricky Rubio. Over his past 21 games Rubio is 22-for-53 on three-pointers (41.5 percent). They come off Sunday's 30-point victory over a the Phoenix Suns. Minnesota had to play last night and the over is 6-0 when the Timberwolves are playing on no days rest. Minnesota is also 5-1 over on the road. Dallas has the offense on track, off a win over Boston, but they've allowed 113 and 112 the last two games. And the Over is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings in Dallas.