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Free Picks: Service Plays for Wednesday, January 20,2010

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JR O'Donnell

Michigan vs. Wisconsin
Play: Wisconsin -8½

Standing at (14-4) the Wisky Badgers Coach Bo Ryan will have his squad ready as he is super mad!! The badgers are ready to pound somebody off a Oso drubbing 60-50 last game. Tonight's 10-7 Mich Wolves will be run right off the court, We note that the Wolves are one of the poorest ats travelers in the Big 10. Living and dying by the 3 and getting pounded on the boards will let the Badgers ROLL by double digits. A FEW FAST FACTS: Badgers 7-1 Ats at the Kohl Center & Michigan 5-15-2 in this spot..

 
Posted : January 20, 2010 11:01 am
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Johnny Banks

Dallas Mavericks vs. Washington Wizards
Play: Dallas Mavericks -4½

The Mavericks have covered in 4 of their last 5 road games when playing a team that has a losing record. The Wizards have not done well against teams with winning records as they are just 9-26 ATS in their last 25 games against a team with a winning record. The Mavs win big on the road Wednesday!

 
Posted : January 20, 2010 11:01 am
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Stephen Nover

Indiana at ORLANDO -11'

The Pacers were blown out last night by Miami, a team they do not match up well to having lost all three meetings.

Prior to that loss, however, Indiana had won four of its last seven games. The Pacers have been playing better since Danny Granger, Troy Murphy and Mike Dunleavy - their three best players - all have gotten healthy.

The Pacers match up better to Orlando. They defeated the Magic, 97-90, earlier this month. Center Roy Hibbert held his own with Dwight Howard scoring 26 points on 10-of-19 shooting from the floor.

Orlando just returned from a four-game West Coast trip where they went 1-3. Orlando has dropped seven of its last nine games.

Vince Carter is back playing for Orlando after suffering a shoulder injury. But that's not necessarily a positive. He's having his worst shooting season. Still bothered by pain in his shoulder, Carter has missed 14 of his last 18 shots from the field.

4♦ PACERS

New Mexico at AIR FORCE +12

Back New Mexico at home, fade the Lobos on the road is a safe way to profit.

The Lobos have failed to cover seven of their last 10 away matchups. They are 2-5 ATS in their last seven as road chalk.

I see New Mexico struggling in this Mountain West Conference matchup. Air Force is primed for a big home effort. The Falcons have covered nine of the last 11 times as an underdog.

The Falcons overcame a 13-point halftime deficit to take the lead against TCU in their conference opener only to fade. Then in their last game against BYU, the class of the conference, the Falcons trailed by just five before fading again.

Air Force is due to play a more complete game. New Mexico isn't nearly as intimidating on the road. The Lobos aren't as athletic as some may think.

Air Force does have some injuries on its front line. But I still like the Falcons in this spot. They'll play a slowdown, deliberate style of game well-suited for a big underdog.

3♦ AIR FORCE

 
Posted : January 20, 2010 11:03 am
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Terron Chapman

UTEP vs. Memphis U
Play: UTEP +8

The UTEP Miners (11-5) will walk into FedEx Forum tonight in Memphis with hopes of ending the longest conference winning streak in NCAA history. It has been 1,419 days, and the 64-game winning streak ties Kentucky for the longest conference win streak in Division I history. Kentucky had its 64-game streak from 1945-1950.

The Tigers (13-4) enter winners of four of their last five, but will face a tough challenge tonight from the visiting Miners. The Miners have played well against Memphis the past two seasons. The Tigers tamed the Miners 70-63 last year in the Don Haskins Center. Two years ago, on the FedEx Forum floor and with Memphis ranked No. 1 in the nation, UTEP led 60-58 with 3:45 to play, trailed by one, 63-62, with 1:18 to go, before falling 70-64. These two teams in their current form are actually quite similar. Statistically, the two teams almost are a mirror image. Each team has four players averaging in double-figure scoring. UTEP averages 76.8 points a game, fourth best in C-USA. Memphis averages 75.9 points, fifth in the conference. UTEP is shooting 46.2 percent from the field, third in the conference. Memphis is shooting 45.1 percent, fifth best in C-USA.

The Miners won’t be intimidated at all by Memphis and their current streak. If anything, it will only add to the motivation of the visitor who has five players on their roster who call Memphis home. Look for an inspired performance from the visitor and a game closer than the marketplace currently suggest. Play on the UTEP Miners for 1 unit.

 
Posted : January 20, 2010 11:48 am
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Ben Burns

Vancouver Canucks at Edmonton Oilers
Prediction: Edmonton Oilers

We've enjoyed some success with 'puckline' plays recently and this looks like another good spot for one. With eight straight losses, the Oilers come in desperate for a victory. Note that three of those losses came by a single goal. While I won with the Canucks in their last game (6-2 win over the Penguins) it should be noted that they're just 1-3 their last four games. Two of those were also decided by a single goal. Even with the victory over Pittsburgh, the Canucks are still just 10-21 (-22.4) in the month of January the past 2+ seasons.

 
Posted : January 20, 2010 11:49 am
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Dave Price

1 Unit on Minnesota T-Wolves +6.5

Minnesota has quietly covered the spread in 3 of its last 4 games and I expect the T-Wolves to pick up another ATS win for backers tonight. The Timberwolves are an impressive 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games as a home underdog and a perfect 5-0 ATS in their last 5 vs. fellow NBA Northwest Division opponents. While the Thunder are a much improved team this season, they haven't showed that they are deserving of this much respect on the road yet, especially in a divisional matchup. Expect the T-Wolves to keep this one close. Take the points.

 
Posted : January 20, 2010 11:49 am
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Stan Lisowski

Kent St

Golden Flashes look to shake things up after blowing a big lead in their last game. They stand 8-2 straight up in their series with Buffalo, while they are a 78% proposition as a host after a prior home beat.

 
Posted : January 20, 2010 12:25 pm
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Larry Ness

LAC -3 vs CHI

The Bulls opened a season-long seven-game road trip on Monday night having won their previous four games (three coming at home). The first stop came in Oakland on Martin Luther King Day and while Chicago had to consider this contest one of the most winnable games on the trip, the Bulls got 'pasted,' losing 114-97 by the short-handed Warriors. The loss dropped the Bulls to a woeful 4-14 SU on the road this year (they are slightly better ATS going 7-11), including 1-5 SU against Western Conference opponents. The Bulls better focus here, as tonight's matchup with the 18-22 Clippers is the only one left during the trip against a team which currently has a record below .500. However, the Bulls will have no easy time with the Clippers. They have won SEVEN of their last eight home games (7-0-1 ATS), including wins over the Celtics and Lakers. The lone loss in that span was a one-pointer against the Cavs this past Saturday, a game starting center Chris Kaman (20.4-9.3) sat out. The Clippers haven't lost at home since a 115-90 loss to the Spurs back on December 13 and I see little reason for them to lose to the poor-traveling Bulls tonight.

 
Posted : January 20, 2010 12:30 pm
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GoodFella

CHL -4 vs MIA

Miami comes into tonight's game off a blowout win over the Pacers last night. The Heat have not fared well in back to back spots this season--as they are 1-5 SU & 2-4 ATS in back end of back to back games. Larry Brown really has this Bobcats Ball club playing well & they are very tough to beat at home. The Bobcats sport a (17-4) home mark this season & the Bobcats are on a roll going (8-1 L/9) games overall & tonight's game concludes their 6 game home stand. Charlotte did win at Miami (107-97) in these teams only meeting this year- but the Heat won 3 straight over the Bobcats prior to this seasons meeting. I look for the Bobcats to keep up their dominant play at home tonight and while Miami does have some in-season revenge going tonight--we can see that they do not fair well in back 2 back spots & that's the exact spot they are in tonight. Lay the points with the Bobcats tonight guys.

 
Posted : January 20, 2010 12:32 pm
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John Ryan

New Jersey Nets vs. Phoenix Suns
Play: New Jersey Nets +12.5

3* graded play on New Jersey as they face Phoenix set to start at 9:00 EST. Our handicapping model clearly shows and projects that New jersey will cover this double digit spread. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 33-7 ATS for 83% winners since 1996. Play against home favorites that are solid 3PT shooting teams hitting >=36.5% and facing a poor 3PT defense allowing >=36.5% and is an average rebounding team posting a +/-3 reb/game differential facing a horrible rebounding team posting a <=-5.5 reb/game differential. Strange is it may sound this system calls to back the worst teams in the NBA, but those battered teams somehow manage to play some of their best games in these roles. 50% of these games covered the spread by 7 or more points. Phoenix does not concern themselves with playing lock down defense. They have allowed 50%+ shooting in BB games and allowed 50 rebounds in 11 straight games. In 3 of these games the opponent got 60 or more rebounds. New jersey matches up well enough to keep this game under 10 points. Take the Nets.

 
Posted : January 20, 2010 1:41 pm
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Craig Trapp

Xavier vs. Temple
Play: Xavier +4.5

XU is the most talented team in the A10 and have lately really started to put it together with a string of 4 straight wins and 6 of last 7 as well. Temple has won 4 in a row as well but only one win was against a top team (Rhode Island where they won by 4 in OT). These two are always playing for what seems like a conference championship and this year is no different. Temple must win with great defense and rebounding as they don't have the superior individual athletes. The trouble with Temple is that they really have struggled to score against the top teams this year and XU is very good defensively. Look for Crawford to carry XU and for this one to come down to the last few possesions. Take the points and love it.

 
Posted : January 20, 2010 1:41 pm
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Alex Smart

Baylor @ Kansas
PICK: Kansas -14

Baylor's offense had yet another fantastic outing on Saturday in an 83-70 home victory over Oklahoma State. Leading scorer, G LaceDarius Dunn led the way with 25 points to lead the Bears to victory. His 9/17 shooting highlighted a solid 52.5% effort by the team. Baylor went 7/16 from beyond the arc and outrebounded the Pokes 39-24. A huge rebounding advantage is becoming the norm for the Bears, who are fourth in the nation on the glass, averaging 40.4 rebounds per game, while allowing just 26.8, good enough for #10 in the country. A large part of that advantage on the inside is thanks to F Ekpe Udoh, who is coming off of another double-double against OSU. Udoh already has 71 blocks on the season, and he is hauling in 11.4 boards per game, the seventh most in the NCAAs.

The Jayhawks put together their best game since January 2nd on Saturday when they disposed of Texas Tech 89-63 at Allen Fieldhouse. Nine players saw at least 11 minutes of action for HC Bill Self, who normally uses at least a dozen players on any given night. A 42-18 first half advantage was clearly the difference. F Marcus Morris shot 7/10 from the floor to total a game-high 20 points. It was yet another solid outing for junior C Cole Aldrich, who scored 14 points to go with seven rebounds. Expect to see Aldrich be the man in charge of keeping Udoh off the glass on Wednesday night. The difference-maker may be F Xavier Henry, who has absolutely lived up to the hype in his freshman campaign. After his 14 point showing against the Red Raiders, Henry is averaging 15.1 points and 4.7 rebounds per game this season.

It's payback time. The Jayhawks had won eight straight in this series before the Bears sprung the upset last season. They are 5-3 ATS this year at Allen Fieldhouse, but their average margin of victory there has been a stellar 34.2 points per game. KU has won 22 consecutive games at home, and it hasn't been beaten there in Big XII play in its L/21 tries. Only twice in those 21 games was an outcome decided by less than double digits and the average MOV has been 22.9 points per game. Expect to see another lopsided one in Wednesday night's NCAA basketball betting affair.

 
Posted : January 20, 2010 1:42 pm
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Hollywood Sports

Toronto Raptors at Milwaukee Bucks
Prediction: Milwaukee Bucks

The Raptors face a tough turn-around game on Wednesday as they have to travel to Milwaukee after facing a big challenge against LeBron and the Cavaliers in Cleveland Tuesday night. Toronto has failed to cover in seven of their last nine games when playing without a day of rest. On the road, the Raptors struggle as they are just 8-14 with a -5.2 net point differential. One of Toronto's problems on the road is that they allow their home hosts to shoot 48.5% from the field. Milwaukee will enjoy playing in front of their home fans again after a six-game road trip that began on January 10th. The Bucks have covered in eight of their last ten home games after road trips that were at least a week long. Milwaukee comes off a disappointing 101-98 overtime loss to Houston on Monday. But the Bucks sport a respectable 11-7 record on their home court so they have an excellent opportunity to catch the Raptors in a difficult spot. Play the Bucks on Wednesday.

 
Posted : January 20, 2010 1:43 pm
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Joseph D'Amico

Villanova vs. Rutgers
Play: Villanova -13½

The #4 ranked Villanova Wildcat's are 16-1 SU, 12-4 ATS, 3-1 away, and a perfect 5-0 in Conference play. They are shredding opponenets by an average of 14.1 PPG. They face a mediocre Rutger's squad that is 0-5 SU vs. Conference foes TY. The Wildcat's have covered 6 of their L7 while the Scarlet Knight's come into this matchup on a 6 game losing streak in which they have failed to cover their L5 in a row. Earlier this month, Rutger's lost 2 key players.in Forward Echnique and Guard Hasani. The absence of these players have made it even tougher on Rutger's to compete. I have Villanova stronger in every offensive category and a much deeper bench. The Wildcat's are 6-1 ATS their L7 overall, 5-1 ATS their L6 vs. the Big East, and 5-1 ATS their L6 as a favorite of 13+ points. The Scarlet Knight's are 0-7 ATS their L7 as a home 'dog and 1-10 ATS their L11 vs. the Big East. Villanova rolls.

 
Posted : January 20, 2010 1:44 pm
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Nelly

Charlotte - over Miami

Miami delivered a convincing win over Indiana at home last night but the Heat are back on the road again, having played six of the past seven on the road, making this the seventh road game in the last twelve days. The Heat has been decent road performers but Charlotte has been dominant at home. The Bobcats are 17-4 S/U at home this season with a 13-8 ATS mark. Charlotte failed to cover Monday afternoon at home but was up 24 in that game at one-point before a sloppy finish. That narrow win and a poor finish should help keep this team motivated for another strong performance. Charlotte has historically played well in this series covering in seven of the last ten including four of the last five meetings. The Bobcats won in Miami earlier this month and the Heat are allowing ten more points per game than Charlotte over the last five contests. Miami is a poor defensive team that is now thrown into a very tough travel spot and Charlotte should prevail.

 
Posted : January 20, 2010 1:52 pm
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