Matt Fargo
Michigan Wolverines
Michigan is coming off another big win over the weekend, this one against Connecticut and the Wolverines are starting to finally get their act together. They have the players and the coaches to go a long way but inconsistent play early in the year got them out of the gate slower than expected. There are areas for improvement everywhere from boosting their three-point shooting percentage to staying out of foul trouble. But what’s incredible to consider first is how far the Wolverines have already come. The defense is at the top of the list and the players are finally starting to buy into the John Beilein system of good defense produces a good offense. More players have contributed on offense and re-dedicated themselves to defense and that is such an important move. Wisconsin dropped to 4-2 in the conference with a loss at Ohio St. on Saturday and a return home should help get it back into the win column but it is not going to be easy. The loss of forward Jon Leuer cannot be downplayed as he was the second leading scorer on this team before going down with a broken wrist. In definitely hurts both the offense and the defense as he was the leading rebounder as well but it also cuts into the depth and this is now a five-to-six man rotation for the most part with only eight players catching minutes. Both teams have played very solid schedules so both are up to the task of playing in a big game like this. Wisconsin is just 3-12 ATS in its last 15 games in the second half of the season against teams that are outscoring opponents by four or more ppg while Michigan is on a run of 4-1 ATS against teams with a winning record. The Badgers have owned this series of late but the gap is definitely closing but the numbers are not as this line is actually higher than last year’s matchup in Madison and I believe Wisconsin is a slightly worse team this time around while the Wolverines are moving in the right direction. 3* Michigan Wolverines
Rocketman
Wyoming @ BYU
Play: Wyoming +22
Wyoming is scoring 78.1 points per game overall this year. Cowboys are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS win. Cowboys are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 road games. Cowboys are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games as a road underdog. Cowboys are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 vs. Mountain West. Cowboys are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 games as an underdog. Cowboys are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600. Cowboys are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Cowboys are 15-7 ATS in their last 22 games overall. Cougars are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games after scoring more than 90 points in their previous game. We'll recommend a small play on Wyoming tonight!
King Creole
Buffalo +4.5 vs Kent St.
Playing with Conference Tournament REVENGE from last season has simply NOT WORKED this far in the 2009/2010 College season.... particularly for teams that come in of a SU loss (like the Golden Flashes).4-17 ATS so far this season: All Conference teams playing with 'LSTR' (Last Season Tourney Revenge).... and also off a SU and ATS loss (Kent State). And when taking on a confident opponent that's playing off a SU win (like BUFFALO), these "Revengers" are 1-8 ATS.
We love playing on Conference teams who are playing with EXTREME confidence. As in multiple wins in a row... with the last as an Underdog. 13-1-2 ATS this season: All Conference teams playing off 3 or more SU and ATS wins in a row.. with the last win as an Underdog (BUFFALO).
Lenny Del Genio
North Carolina -6.5 vs Wake Forest
Last night, we cashed a play on Purdue, who came in riding a three-game losing streak following a 14-0 start. We said we couldn't see the Boilermakers losing a fourth straight game based on the sheer talent in West Lafayette. Same thing applies to North Carolina tonight as the Tar Heels enter this game with Wake Forest off back to back losses. They have never lost three straight games in the Roy Williams era. From an ATS perspective, history supports our decision as UNC is a perfect 7-0 ATS off an outright loss as a favorite, six of those coming in ACC play. They are 8-1 ATS off a SU loss period the last three seasons and are 26-9 ATS since '97 off a loss by six points or less. Take North Carolina.
Spartan
Baylor +14.5 vs Kansas
Playing the Kansas Jayhawks in Allen Field house in a daunting task, it is a miserable place for visitors. Trust me, I've been in that box and it get's downright nuts. Kansas has now prevailed in 52 straight home games and currently boasts the longest home winning streak of any team in the country. But if you can pick your spots sometimes you can locate some real value going against KU in their house, just a couple of weeks back I posted a releases on Cornell +21.5 at Kansas and the game went into the final minute with the outcome very much in doubt. Cornell had them on the ropes. Tonight we get another opportunity in my view with a very talented Baylor team coming to Lawrence and catching a huge 14.5 number. I feel the odds makers make the public pay an absolute premium for supporting a play on Kansas at home and the value here is with the visiting Bears. Baylor is currently on a hot streak against the number going 7-1 the last 8 games, 5-2 in conference action and 7-1 against winning ball clubs. Traveling is always risky business in the Big 12 but too many points here in my view. Take Baylor to cover the hefty number guys!