Free Picks: Service Plays for Wednesday, January 22

DUNKEL INDEX

NCAAB

Arkansas at Tennessee
The Razorbacks head to Knoxville tonight looking to bounce back from their 66-61 loss at Georgia and build on their 8-1 ATS record in their last 9 games following an ATS defeat. Arkansas is the pick (+6 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Volunteers favored by only 3. Dunkel Pick: Arkansas (+6 1/2)

Game 721-722: Wake Forest at Virginia Tech (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Wake Forest 59.872; Virginia Tech 57.310
Dunkel Line: Wake Forest by 2 1/2; 124
Vegas Line: Virginia Tech by 1 1/2; 129 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Wake Forest (+1 1/2); Under

Game 723-724: Massachusetts at Richmond (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Massachusetts 62.535; Richmond 66.775
Dunkel Line: Richmond by 4; 147
Vegas Line: Richmond by 2; 142 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Richmond (-2); Over

Game 725-726: Northeastern at Towson (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Northeastern 50.654; Towson 55.329
Dunkel Line: Towson by 4 1/2
Vegas Line: Towson by 7
Dunkel Pick: Northeastern (+7)

Game 727-728: Rhode Island at St. Joseph's (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Rhode Island 55.545; St. Joseph's 65.662
Dunkel Line: St. Joseph's by 10
Vegas Line: St. Joseph's by 9
Dunkel Pick: St. Joseph's (-9)

Game 729-730: Iowa at Michigan (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Iowa 76.854; Michigan 75.401
Dunkel Line: Iowa by 1 1/2; 155
Vegas Line: Michigan by 2 1/2; 149 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Iowa (+2 1/2); Over

Game 731-732: William & Mary at Hofstra (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: William & Mary 52.457; Hofstra 50.540
Dunkel Line: William & Mary by 2
Vegas Line: William & Mary by 4 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Hofstra (+4 1/2)

Game 733-734: Louisville at South Florida (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Louisville 71.838; South Florida 60.430
Dunkel Line: Louisville by 11 1/2; 130
Vegas Line: Louisville by 13 1/2; 136 1/2
Dunkel Pick: South Florida (+13 1/2); Under

Game 735-736: St. Louis at Duquesne (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis 67.959; Duquesne 55.252
Dunkel Line: St. Louis by 12 1/2; 126
Vegas Line: St. Louis by 10; 132 1/2
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (-10); Under

Game 737-738: NC-Wilmington at College of Charleston (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NC-Wilmington 43.084; College of Charleston 58.907
Dunkel Line: College of Charleston by 16
Vegas Line: College of Charleston by 10 1/2
Dunkel Pick: College of Charleston (-10 1/2)

Game 739-740: VCU at Dayton (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: VCU 65.458; Dayton 69.565
Dunkel Line: Dayton by 4
Vegas Line: Dayton by 2
Dunkel Pick: Dayton (-2)

Game 741-742: George Mason at Fordham (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: George Mason 55.269; Fordham 53.757
Dunkel Line: George Mason by 1 1/2
Vegas Line: Fordham by 1
Dunkel Pick: George Mason (+1)

Game 743-744: Bowling Green at Ohio (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Bowling Green 51.945; Ohio 61.437
Dunkel Line: Ohio by 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Ohio by 11
Dunkel Pick: Bowling Green (+11)

Game 745-746: Central Michigan at Miami (OH) (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Central Michigan 44.860; Miami (OH) 50.548
Dunkel Line: Miami (OH) by 5 1/2
Vegas Line: Miami (OH) by 7
Dunkel Pick: Central Michigan (+7)

Game 747-748: Akron at Eastern Michigan (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Akron 52.563; Eastern Michigan 61.276
Dunkel Line: Eastern Michigan by 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Eastern Michigan by 3 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Eastern Michigan (-3 1/2)

Game 749-750: Northern Illinois at Toledo (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Northern Illinois 49.059; Toledo 62.084
Dunkel Line: Toledo by 13
Vegas Line: Toledo by 16
Dunkel Pick: Northern Illinois (+16)

Game 751-752: Duke at Miami (FL) (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Duke 74.611; Miami (FL) 66.754
Dunkel Line: Duke by 8; 124
Vegas Line: Duke by 5; 128 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Duke (-5); Under

Game 753-754: Texas Tech at West Virginia (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Texas Tech 59.507; West Virginia 70.005
Dunkel Line: West Virginia by 10 1/2
Vegas Line: West Virginia by 6 1/2
Dunkel Pick: West Virginia (-6 1/2)

Game 755-756: Arkansas at Tennessee (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Arkansas 68.415; Tennessee 71.617
Dunkel Line: Tennessee by 3; 133
Vegas Line: Tennessee by 6 1/2; 137 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Arkansas (+6 1/2); Under

Game 757-758: Drake at Southern Illinois (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Drake 52.505; Southern Illinois 55.367
Dunkel Line: Southern Illinois by 3
Vegas Line: Southern Illinois by 1 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Southern Illinois (-1 1/2)

Game 759-760: Wichita State at Illinois State (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Wichita State 70.771; Illinois State 59.686
Dunkel Line: Wichita State by 11; 134
Vegas Line: Wichita State by 8 1/2; 125 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Wichita State (-8 1/2); Over

Game 761-762: Indiana State at Loyola-Chicago (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Indiana State 59.593; Loyola-Chicago 57.147
Dunkel Line: Indiana State by 2 1/2
Vegas Line: Indiana State by 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Loyola-Chicago (+5 1/2)

Game 763-764: Northern Iowa at Bradley (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Northern Iowa 60.611; Bradley 55.595
Dunkel Line: Northern Iowa by 5
Vegas Line: Northern Iowa by 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Bradley (+5 1/2)

Game 765-766: Auburn at Mississippi State (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Auburn 60.018; Mississippi State 56.506
Dunkel Line: Auburn by 3 1/2
Vegas Line: Auburn by 1
Dunkel Pick: Auburn (-1)

Game 767-768: Oakland at WI-Green Bay (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Oakland 51.687; WI-Green Bay 66.898
Dunkel Line: WI-Green Bay by 15
Vegas Line: WI-Green Bay by 11
Dunkel Pick: WI-Green Bay (-11)

Game 769-770: Cleveland State at Illinois-Chicago (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland State 59.177; Illinois-Chicago 51.783
Dunkel Line: Cleveland State by 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Cleveland State by 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cleveland State (-5 1/2)

Game 771-772: South Carolina at Georgia (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: South Carolina 59.249; Georgia 66.069
Dunkel Line: Georgia by 7
Vegas Line: Georgia by 4 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Georgia (-4 1/2)

Game 773-774: Mississippi at Vanderbilt (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Mississippi 63.030; Vanderbilt 61.589
Dunkel Line: Mississippi by 1 1/2
Vegas Line: Vanderbilt by 1
Dunkel Pick: Mississippi (+1)

Game 775-776: Wyoming at Air Force (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Wyoming 58.917; Air Force 56.025
Dunkel Line: Wyoming by 3
Vegas Line: Wyoming by 1
Dunkel Pick: Wyoming (-1)

Game 777-778: TCU at Oklahoma (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: TCU 54.642; Oklahoma 68.709
Dunkel Line: Oklahoma by 14; 156
Vegas Line: Oklahoma by 15 1/2; 150 1/2
Dunkel Pick: TCU (+15 1/2); Over

Game 779-780: Wisconsin at Minnesota (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Wisconsin 72.040; Minnesota 72.922
Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 1; 141
Vegas Line: Wisconsin by 2 1/2; 144 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (+2 1/2); Under

Game 781-782: LaSalle at St. Bonaventure (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: LaSalle 59.514; St. Bonaventure 64.564
Dunkel Line: St. Bonaventure by 5
Vegas Line: St. Bonaventure by 2 1/2
Dunkel Pick: St. Bonaventure (-2 1/2)

Game 783-784: San Diego State at San Jose State (10:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Diego State 69.206; San Jose State 51.960
Dunkel Line: San Diego State by 17
Vegas Line: San Diego State by 14
Dunkel Pick: San Diego State (-14)

Game 785-786: Oregon State at Washington State (10:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Oregon State 62.025; Washington State 57.912
Dunkel Line: Oregon State by 4
Vegas Line: Oregon State by 1 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Oregon State (-1 1/2)

Game 787-788: Nevada at Fresno State (10:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Nevada 53.825; Fresno State 60.211
Dunkel Line: Fresno State by 6 1/2
Vegas Line: Fresno State by 2
Dunkel Pick: Fresno State (-2)

Game 789-790: Utah State at UNLV (11:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Utah State 58.274; UNLV 64.698
Dunkel Line: UNLV by 6 1/2
Vegas Line: UNLV by 4
Dunkel Pick: UNLV (-4)

Game 791-792: California at USC (11:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: California 67.351; USC 61.439
Dunkel Line: California by 6
Vegas Line: California by 8
Dunkel Pick: USC (+8)

Game 793-794: Niagara at Canisius (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Niagara 47.586; Canisius 56.420
Dunkel Line: Canisius by 9
Vegas Line: Canisius by 11 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Niagara (+11 1/2)

River City Sports

Richmond -2

One of the Sharps favorite angles comes into play tonight, so we are going to gladly take our shot. If you look at the statistics and numbers for UMass vs. Richmond, it would be tough to make a case to go with the Spiders. UMass comes into the game ranked 13th in the country at 16-1. The one loss was a controversial loss at Florida State, so they are rolling. After a shaky start to the season, Richmond is playing much better basketball as evidenced by their gutty win over Dayton this weekend. All of that said, we hold true to a system that hits at over 75% and we have the situation tonight...

Always play the unranked home favorite over the ranked road dog ATS. This system has a historical success rate of over 75%, which is gold in this game. We need Richmond to just make a few more shots to get some confidence. Richmond -2 vs. the 13th ranked team in the country means they are "begging" you to take UMass here. No trap for us! We like the way Richmond is playing right now and we think that UMass is due for a stumble on the road, where it is always tough to win in the A10 on the road.

Brandon Shively

Texas Tech vs. West Virginia
Play: West Virginia -6½

This is going to be a play on West Virginia tonight in what I will call a 'bounce' game for both teams. Texas Tech is coming off a big win vs. Baylor, then a win on the road vs. TCU. The Red Raiders are not that good, especially on the road. Texas Tech only shoots 41% from the floor (19% from the 3 point line) and have a very bad assist: turnover ratio at 0.71. Looking at west Virginia, this is a team that has a 1.90 assist:turnover ratio at home and are shooting a respectable 46% from the floor. I love Juwan Staten for West Virginia and his 2.94 assist:turnover ratio. West Virginia has two other guards on the wing in Eron Harris and Terry Henderson who can score with ease and they also shoot free throws at 80+%. Devin Williams is West Virginia's key big man. He is a big 6'8" 250 lb. freshman who was the #13 power forward coming out of high school. West Virginia has now lost their last two home games and I like the value with them tonight in a bounceback game. Look for them to win this game by double digits.

Brandon Shively's Featured Package

Jim Feist

Chicago Bulls vs. Cleveland Cavaliers
Play: Cleveland Cavaliers -2½

Very interesting dynamic in tonight's contest as forwar Luol Deng faces his old team (Bulls) for the first time since being traded for Andrew Bynum. The Bulls, in essence, got nothing for Deng who has averaged 20 ppg for the Cavaliers since being traded. You have to believe that Deng will be putting extra effort into tonight's contest against his old club. This will be the fourth meeting between these clubs this season. The Bulls won and covered both contests on their home floor at the United Center, while Cleveland covered the one game on their home court at Quickens Loan Arena. This young Cavs team is playing better and better, evidenced by their 4-3 S/U record in their last seven contests. Chicago currently sits sixth in the Eastern Conference while Cleveland is tied for 10th, but just two games back of Charlotte for that 8th playoff spot. Chicago has pretty much lived and died with their defense, which ranks 2nd in the NBA. They had a stretch of nine games where they allowed more than 100 points just one time. Since that time, they have given up more than 100 points in three of their last six games and gone OVER in five of their last six games. The home team has covered four of the last five meetings in this series and I look for that to continue here tonight. The Cavs will give Chicago all it can handle tonight especially with Deng looking forward to showing his old club what they are missing.

Nick Parsons

Dallas Mavericks vs. Toronto Raptors
Play: Toronto Raptors -1½

Toronto traded Rudy Gay on December 9th to the Sacramento Kings and would then go on a tear winning nine of 11. The Raptors have cooled since, losing five of their last nine. They've also gone just 1-3 ATS in their last four as well, including failing to cover in two straight.

The last time these clubs got together though, the Raptors would hold Vince Carter scoreless and win 109-108 in overtime in Dallas back on December 20th.

While I always take the "revenge factor" into consideration when making my plays, in my opinion, this will be a moot point tonight as it will be all hands on deck for the home side in an attempt to stop the slide.

It's interesting to note that this is in fact a spot that Dallas has struggled in all season, just 7-8 ATS in revenging a loss vs. an opponent and 0-3 ATS vs. Atlantic division opponents.

And note that Toronto is 11-7 ATS this year vs. poor defensive teams that allow 99-plus points per contest.

I believe there are enough situational, motivational and trend based factors to seriously consider getting down on the home side in this one.

Rob Vinciletti

Indiana Pacers vs. Phoenix Suns
Play: Indiana Pacers -5

The Pacers have been playing lights out and have not skipped a beat even on the road in these tough Western Conference Venues. Tonight they travel to Phoenix riding a 5 game straight up and ats win Streak. The Pacers are 11-2 straight up and ats vs non conference teams and have covered 16 of 22 vs opponents who allow 99 or more points per game. Specifically vs Pacific teams they have won and covered all 4 times. Phoenix and all League wide home dogs with a total that is 190 or higher that scored 110 or more at home and had 15 or less turnovers are 1-10 straight up and ats vs an opponent off a road dog ats win that scored 100 or more. The straight up winner in Phoenix home games has a 17-2 spread record. The straight up winner in the Pacers road games has a 19-2 spread record. The Pacers are the better team and are our choice tonight.

Rob Vinciletti's Featured Package

Don Best Consensus

Bulls at Cavaliers
Pick: Under

You gotta give it to the Bulls, they are one scrappy bunch. They could have easily shut it down after losing Rose for the season (again) yet they continue to compete like professionals. The only problem is they don't have much firepower and rely on defense to win or stay in games. The Cavs are still trying to become cohesive unit with the recent changes to their roster. Until then their success or failure offensively have fallen on the shoulders of one man. This should be a hard fought game with key defensive stops down the stretch leaving this one under the total.

Marc Lawrence

Cleveland State at Illinois Chicago
Pick: Cleveland State

Another tale of long-awaited revenge unfolds tonight at the UIC Pavilion. Cleveland State had grown quite accustomed to tying Illinois-Chicago to the whipping post twice each season, winning 12 straight meetings with the Flames, until last year’s Horizon League tournament rolled around. After beating UIC by double digits in both regular season contests, the Vikings ran aground in the opening round of the conference tourney when they were ambushed and pillaged by the windy city twine-ticklers in a stunning 82-59 setback that ended CSU’s season. Well, it’s time to pay the piper and with the visitors holding a 7-2 ATS series edge in the last nine meetings, tonight’s Viking invasion should restore order to this previously one-sided rivalry. Bad enough that the hosts are just 4-11 ATS in the previous 15 games against CSU on this court, Illinois-Chicago takes the floor off an LTKO revenger of its own against Wisconsin-Green Bay, and UIC owns a paltry 2-9 SU mark after playing the Packers… err, Phoenix. The Vikes are getting a huge boost from local favorite G Trey Lewis who transferred from Penn State while UIC’s season has already gone down in flames with a 5-12 effort. Hey, when we’re faced with two teams heading in opposite directions, we always enter the elevator and punch the ‘Up’ button. Again. We recommend a 1-unit play on Cleveland State.

Stephen Nover

Charlotte +6

This is hump day and a hump game for the Clippers, who are in the middle of a seven-game road trip. This marks their fourth road game in six days. The Clippers are playing well despite being without Chris Paul. So are the Bobcats, though. Charlotte has won three of its last five with one of those defeats coming in overtime to the Heat. The Bobcats defeated a hot Toronto in their last home game. Charlotte has been good this season in a underdog role and usually can be counted on to play hard for 48 minutes. The Bobcats shouldn't lack for motivation after being embarrassed 112-85 by the Clippers at Staples Center on New Year's Day. Kemba Walker, Charlotte's top scorer, is out with a sprained ankle. However, I've always liked backup guard Ramon Sessions. He looked good against the Raptors two days ago scoring 23 points. The Clippers are tough up front with Blake Griffin and DeAndre Jordan. The Bobcats, though, have a counter with Al Jefferson, who is averaging 26.9 points and 13 rebounds during the past five games.

Stephen Nover's Featured Package

Freddy Wills

Wisconsin vs. Minnesota
Play: Minnesota +125

I'll take Minnesota at home here against Wisconsin who is ranked #9. This is a big game for Minnesota that they will need to help build their resume while I think Wisconsin is a top 10 team I don't think they are unbeatable especially in conference play on the road.

Freddy Wills's Featured Package

EZWINNERS

Iowa +2.5

Iowa is a very good team that is capable of beating anyone in the country. The Hawkeyes have played one of the toughest schedules in the nation and I'm sure they will be looking to atone for the ass kicking that they took when they visited Ann Arbor last season. Iowa has been shooting well from three point range which gives White and Marble a lot of room to work with opposing defenses having to stay home on the shooters. Michigan has too be feeling really good about themselves coming off of their win at Wisconsin and jumping into the rankings this week, but now they are the favorite with a focused Iowa team coming to town. Take the points with the Hawkeyes.

DAVE COKIN

TEXAS TECH AT WEST VIRGINIA
PLAY: TEXAS TECH +6.5

It’s rematch time tonight in the Big 12 as Texas Tech travels to Morgantown for a battle with West Virginia. The first meeting between these two was a thriller, with the Mountaineers pulling out the 89-86 overtime victory in Lubbock.

That initial hookup was a tough loss for the Red Raiders. They fought back from a double digit second half deficit to eventually grab a late lead. But Terry Henderson drained a three with a handful of seconds left to get the game to OT and West Virginia eventually escaped with the win.

The fortunes of these two teams has flipped a bit since that first game. West Virginia has dropped three in a row, while the Red Raiders just missed against Texas before knocking off both Baylor and TCU.

The big issue recently for the Mountaineers has been a very shoddy defense. In their last two games, they’ve gotten torched for better than 50% shooting by the opposition. That could bode well for a Texas Tech squad that isn’t much from outside, but is actually one of the most accurate two-point field goal shooting teams in the country.

There’s a decent combo of elements in play here. Same season revenge for the road underdog, and they’re off back to back wins and covers. Add in the poor current form of the host team, and the ingredients seem to be in place for a run at the upset by the underdog. I like the idea of taking the points with Texas Tech in what has a good chance to be another close game.

Wunderdog

Cleveland State at Illinois Chicago
Pick: Cleveland State -5

The Cleveland State Vikings are a respectable 11-9 on the season, and have gone out and played some pretty good teams. They went to Rupp Arena to take on the multi-talented Kentucky Wildcats and gave them fits before losing by just 7. They went to Toledo to take on a then unbeaten Rockets' team that has yet to lose at home, and lost by just 4. Illinois, Chicago has recorded just three wins vs. Div-1 schools, where they are 3-14 overall. The Flames are also quickly losing whatever confidence they had, as they're mired in an eight-game losing streak. The Vikings have eaten up bad teams to the tune of a 9-2 ATS mark vs. a team below .400, and are 4-1 ATS here in the last five meetings. Take Cleveland State.

Hollywood Sports

Indiana at Phoenix
Prediction: Under

Indiana (33-7) has won five straight games after their 102-94 win at Golden State on Monday. The Pacers have reached the century mark in four straight of these winners -- and this sets up an intriguing contrarian angle with the Under.

Phoenix (23-17) has scored 62 and 56 points at the half in each of their last two games respectively -- and in games with the Total set in the 190-199.5 point range involving one team that has scored triple digits in at least three straight contests faces a team that has scored at least 55 points at the half in two straight games, these games then finished Under the Total in 32 of the last 40 situations (80%) where these conditions applied since 1996. Considering that the Suns have played 6 of their last 8 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on the road and that the Under is 4-0-1 in the Pacers' last 5 games on the road, take the Under in this one.