Sam Martin
Louisville at South Florida
Prediction: Louisville
Louisville Cardinals haven't looked as dominant as they did last year on their run to the National Championship, however they have won three straight including two impressive wins by blowout margins against Houston and most recently on the road at Connecticut, and we'll back them to win big again tonight on the road at South Florida.
Bulls haven't put up much of a fight against anybody lately, falling outright six times in their last eight games - and that includes against much easier competition than they'll face tonight. Losses against Mississippi State, Santa Clara, Houston, and SMU don't give us any confidence South Florida can hang with the Cardinals here, and with USF scoring less than 60 points and shooting under 40% in three of their last four games overall, we think this margin of defeat can be enormous. USF 1-8 ATS after playing as a home dog and they don't stay close to Louisville tonight.
Jimmy Boyd
Auburn -1
The Auburn Tigers might be the most underrated team in the SEC. They have played an extremely difficult conference schedule this year, and I think that has created value for today's matchup with Mississippi State. The Tigers have faced two ranked conference opponents at home, and they have had played two very talented teams on the road during conference play. Their SEC opponents combined record is an impressive 52-17 this season.
Auburn is averaging 73.6 points per game this year which is over three points per game more than their opponents defensive scoring average. The Bulldogs on the other hand are averaging less than their opponents defensive scoring averaging which is a strong indication that they are not as good as their 12-5 record would indicate. Auburn is a very good ball control team averaging just 12 turnovers per game. Mississippi State is 8-19 ATS against good ball handling teams that are committing less than 14 turnovers per game after 15 or more games in the season.
Steve Rosen
Philadelphia 76ers vs. New York Knicks
Play: Philadelphia 76ers +8
The New York Knicks were full of positive feelings during a five-game winning streak that began on Jan. 5, but all of those good vibes have drained away again with four straight setbacks. The Knicks will try to pull out of their latest funk when they host the Philadelphia 76ers on Wednesday. New York was embarrassed 103-80 at home by the Brooklyn Nets on Monday and the last four games have been decided by an average of 18.8 points.The Knicks were a different team on Jan. 11, when they went into Philadelphia and came away with a 102-92 triumph that marked No. 4 of the five-game win streak. New York held opponents to an average of 89 points while putting that surge together but is surrendering 109.3 in the last four contests. With no Stoudemire and Martin the Knicks don't stand a chance!
Dave Price
Iowa +3
I have little doubt Iowa will be the more motivated team. The Hawkeyes were absolutely destroyed 95-67 in last year's trip to Ann Arbor, and that loss will provide the fuel tonight. Michigan played perhaps its best game of the season that day, connecting on 58.1% of its shots and knocking down 10 three-pointers. That Michigan team had Trey Burke, Tim Hardaway Jr. and Mitch Mitch McGary in the lineup, and this one won't. Michigan is off a huge win over Wisconsin and has in-state rival Michigan State on deck so the Wolverines might not take a team they crushed last season as seriously as they should. Iowa is the more experienced team and the much deeper team, and that depth has been wearing teams down in the latter stages of games. The Hawkeyes are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road games and 17-5 ATS in their last 22 in Big Ten play. Iowa is also 16-3 ATS the last 2 seasons versus teams with a win percentage of 60-80%, and it has defeated these teams by an average score of 70.0 to 62.8. Take Iowa.
John Ryan
Rhode Island vs. St. Joe's
Play: Rhode Island +9
The Northeast had a heavy snow storm Tuesday with as much as a foot of snow and now very heavy drifting winds. I have attempted to confirm that Rhode Island ahs made the trip to Philadelphia down the I-95 corridor. Based on the facts I know, this game is still scheduled to be played. The simulator shows a high probability that Rhode Island will lose this game by fewer than 9 points. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 64-26 ATS for 71% winners since 2008. Play on road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (RHODE ISLAND) that is an average offensive team (67 to 74 PPG) and is now facing an average defensive team (67 to 74 PPG) after 15+ games and after scoring 30 points or less in the first half in 2 straight games. SIM projects that Rhode Island will make between 40 and 46% of their shots; will have at least 9 offensive rebounds; and will have between 34 and 39 total rebounds. In past games, Rhode Island is a 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) in road games when they make 40% to 46% of their shots in a game over the last 2 seasons; 10-1 ATS (+8.9 Units) when they grab 9 to 13 offensive rebounds in a game over the last 2 seasons; 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) when they grab 34 to 39 rebounds in a game this season. Take Rhode Island.
Rickie Robbins
TCU vs. Oklahoma
Play: Over 152
Storyline: 25th-ranked Oklahoma saved itself from being bounced from the national rankings this week by following the loss to Kansas State with its upset of then #12 Baylor Saturday. The Sooners will now look to build on the win when they host a slumping TCU side Wednesday that's still searching for its first conference win.
The Breakdown: The Sooners have yet to string a couple of wins together since opening conference play with an 88-85 victory over Texas, sandwiching their two losses to Kansas and Kansas State with stunning defeats of highly-regarded (at the time) Iowa State and Baylor teams. With Oklahoma State and another matchup with Iowa State looming in the near future, the next two outings against TCU and Texas Tech might provide OU with its best chance at consecutive wins for a while. On the season, the Sooners have played the country’s 16th-ranked schedule and rank 9th nationally with 84. 7 ppg, 49th in rpg with 38.8, 72nd in apg with 14.6 and 137th with a 45 percent shooting average. Senior F Cameron Clark leads the team in scoring with 17.1 ppg, followed by sophomore G Buddy Hield with 16.6 ppg.
Meanwhile, TCU has just about sealed its Big 12 fate with its latest loss to Texas Tech Saturday. The Horned Frogs shot less than 30 percent from the field for the second consecutive game, totaling a dismal 10 of 49 from the field and 2 of 10 from outside the arc. TCU has now dropped five straight by big double-digit margins and averaged just 55.4 ppg in that stretch, or about 10 points per game below its season average. Against the Red Raiders, not much went right for the Frogs, aside from a 14-0 run right before the end of the half that gave them a 24-23 lead. TCU’s advantage would be brief, though, erased 15 seconds into the second half and Tech would never trail again. Junior F Amric Fields was the high man 15 points and 8 rebounds. Through 17 games, the Horned Frogs are averaging 65.9 ppg on 41 percent shooting and junior G Kyan Anderson leads the team with 14.6 ppg, followed by Fields at 13.7 ppg.
Trends
Over is 6-0 in Sooners last 6 Wednesday games.
Over is 13-3 in Sooners last 16 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
Over is 20-6 in Sooners last 26 home games.
Over is 16-5 in Sooners last 21 games following a S.U. win.
Over is 12-4 in Sooners last 16 vs. Big 12.
Over is 20-7 in Sooners last 27 overall.
Over is 25-10 in Sooners last 35 games following a ATS win.
Doug Upstone
La Salle vs. St Bonaventure
Play: La Salle +3
Two pretty similar teams hook up here tonight at the Reilly Center. La Salle has played a tougher schedule so far this season and that will bode well for them in conference play. Take the 3 points with the Explorers tonight.
Joe Gavazzi
Miami, FLA +4
A home romp over NC State is not the solution to Duke’s problems. No issues with that offense behind Parker and Hood. But, new rule changes have negatively impacted the Duke perimeter defense which combined with a lack of a rim protector, leave them vulnerable in the paint. That win vs. NC St. also keys a situation that finds Coach K to be just 3-23 ATS as road chalk of two or more, following a SU and ATS win vs. a conference foe, if now playing a solid winning team. At 10-7 SU, Miami has become just that under crafty HC Larranaga. His teams have always been outstanding at home where they have posted a long-term record in conference play of 83-55 ATS. This year, with less athletic talent, Larranaga has slowed the tempo and focused on defense. As a result, Miami qualifies as a Defensive Dandy aided by the fact they have positive margins in rebounding, assists, and TOs. When a team coached by Larranaga is playing at home and has allowed 65 or less points in consecutive games (Miami has allowed just 51 PPG L7 games), Larranaga’s teams are 37-16 ATS at home.
Jack Jones
Los Angeles Clippers -6
The Los Angeles Clippers should have no problem taking care of business against the Charlotte Bobcats in blowout fashion Wednesday night. As a result, I'll side with them as a generous 6-point road favorite.
Despite being without Chris Paul, the Clippers have won six of their last seven while averaging 111.0 points per game during that span. They have the talent to make up for his absence as Darren Collison is one of the better back-up points guards in the league, while Jamaal Crawford, Blake Griffin and DeAndre Jordan have really stepped up their games.
Charlotte is getting a lot of respect here due to taking Miami to overtime before beating Toronto on Monday. However, it recently lost point guard Kemba Walker to a sprained ankle. It does not have the talent to make up for his absence over an extended period of time.
The Clippers have won six straight over the Bobcats by an average of 16.7 points per game. Los Angeles is 5-1 ATS in its last six games vs. a team with a losing record. Charlotte is 14-35-2 ATS in its last 51 vs. Western Conference opponents. Los Angeles is 7-1 ATS in its last eight meetings with the Bobcats. Bet the Clippers Wednesday.
Jesse Schule
Chicago Blackhawks at Detroit Red Wings
Pick: Chicago Blackhawks
The defending champs will be in Detroit tonight, and they should have their way with a beaten and battered Wings team. Detroit was already without Pavel Datsyuk, Johan Franzen, and Daniel Alfredsson, but now Jimmy Howard has gone down with a knee injury. Howard had been standing on his head, keeping them in games even when they were being badly out-played. Now they turn to Johan Gustavsson, who is making his first start since coming back from an injury. Gustavsson won three of his last five starts, but he was torched for 16 goals in those five games. Detroit has 21 wins on the season, and only seven of those have come at Joe Louis Arena. Corey Crawford has dominated in Detroit, with a record of 6-1-1 and a 1.70 GAA in his career versus the Wings. Take the Hawks.
SPORTS WAGERS
ORLANDO +190 over Atlanta
It’s not easy pulling the trigger on the Magic here. They will come into this game against a rested Hawks team that will play just their second game in six days while Orlando will play its fifth game in seven days, third game in four days and tail end of back-to-backs after losing in Brooklyn by 11 points last night. To make matters worse, Orlando has dropped 11 of its past 12 games. However, the Magic played a decent game last night but a poor shooting third quarter did them in. The Nets came to play last night and made a slew of difficult shots but Orlando didn’t give up. It was the type of game for the Magic in which a keen observer could take plenty of positives from. Orlando is not this bad. Victor Oladipo is on the verge of becoming an impact player. Aaron Afflalo, Glen Davis and Jameer Nelson are proven players. Kyle O’Quinn is becoming a productive player off the bench that is not only a very good rebounder but that has scored double-digits in three of his past four games. The Magic are very close to turning this thing around and it could start here in this winnable game.
Atlanta is coming off a win over Miami and they have the Spurs on deck, making this one your classic “sandwich” game. Furthermore, the Hawks have just six wins in 19 road games but have just one road win since Al Horford was lost for the season on December 26. That lone victory on the road occurred against Boston by one point.. As road chalk, Atlanta is good fade material without Horford because they have not proven that they can win without him when traveling. Let’s also not ignore that Atlanta will play its second game back after returning from a trip overseas and defeating Miami upon its return. While it may appear that the Hawks are the more rested team, a trip overseas in the middle of the season has to have an effect. After that big win over Miami, the effect will likely be felt here. Keep the points.
SPORTS WAGERS
SOUTH FLORIDA +13½ over Louisville
With their win over UConn on Saturday, the Cardinals went from being ranked #18 all the way up to being ranked #12 for this one. While that win over the Huskies was convincing, we’re still not sold on the Cardinals being this highly ranked. The Cardinals have a lot of skewed numbers because of a cupcake schedule that has seen them play only two true road games. They have difficulty on the boards and in fact, Louisville ranks 286th in defensive rebounding percentage. They will now play back-to-back road games for the first time this season and this game is sandwiched between Saturday’s win over Connecticut and a huge game with Cincinnati up next. It should also be noted that the Cardinals will have a full week off after this game to prepare for Cincinnati, making this one of those dangerous spots for a ranked outfit.
Basketball is all about matchups and the South Florida Bulls could cause some problems for the Cardinals. Start with defensive rebounding. After fielding a lineup without a true center or any interior depth last season, the Bulls addressed that by landing land center John Egbunu. Egbunu is 6-foot-10, 230 pounds with speed, leaping ability and a willingness to attack the rim. Head Coach, Stan Heath also landed Chris Perry, a four-star power forward who is 6-8 and 245 pounds with a 7-5 wingspan. "He's a traditional low-post player," Heath said of Perry. "He likes to play around the basket." Both players have shown improvement with each passing week and if those big bodies can start producing a little more, the Bulls are going to be a tough out. USF just hosted #15 Cincinnati this past weekend and gave the Bearcats a big run for their money, losing by just 7. For South Florida, this now becomes its biggest game of the year and they figure to be a lot more jacked up than the Cardinals, who are looking to get this game over with as quickly as possible, move on to their eight-day layoff and get ready for its showdown with Cincinnati. Big points being offered in a good situational spot for the dog is a profitable recipe.
DAYTON -2 over Virginia Commonwealth
The Atlantic-10 is a deep and very talented conference that could legitimately send four teams (five if you consider Richmond) to the tournament in March. VCU and Saint Louis got all the preseason ink but Dayton (and UMass) are both legit A-10 contenders and both are probably better than the Rams. VCU comes into this contest getting a little bit too much respect because of its 14-4 overall record and 2-1 conference record. However, the Rams two conference wins have come against George Mason (0-4 in the conference) and Duquesne (1-3 in the conference). Six of the Rams last seven games have all been at home and in their only road game over that span they lost to George Washington by 10 points. Indeed the Rams have some nice victories this season but Dayton has been the A-10’s most overlooked squad so far and this is an opportunity to cash in on that.
The Flyers are 1-2 in the conference with only win occurring against Fordham. Big deal, right? However, Dayton’s two conference losses came against Saint Louis and Richmond, two very tough conference foes. In fact, the books have so much respect for Richmond that they’ve made the Spiders a two-point choice tonight over #13 UMass. Prior to conference play, Dayton went 12-3 overall with one of those defeats occurring by one point against then #24 Baylor. Another loss occurred in OT against Southern Cal. The Flyers have an impressive win over then #11 Gonzaga. They should have victories against Baylor and Southern Cal because both those losses turned into defeats when the Flyers got extremely unlucky in both. The Flyers are the superior shooting team here, ranking 41st in the country in FG % (VCU ranks 289th), they own a rebounding edge, they’re at home and they have an outstanding opportunity to get a key win here.
Pass NHL
Teddy Covers
California vs. USC
Pick: California
USC is the worst team in the PAC-12 and it’s not even close. And one of the best ways to make money betting college hoops is to bet against the very worst teams!
The Trojans have lost all five of their previous PAC-12 contests thusfar by 18 points or more, non-competitive in every game. USC isn’t playing any defense in the post or on the perimeter, allowing opponents to hit more than half their shots against them in conference play. They’re getting crushed on the boards, outrebounded by more than five per game.
The Trojans certainly aren’t loaded with offensive creators, held to 41 percent shooting (25 percent from three point range) as they’ve gone 0-5 SU and ATS to start conference play. Nearly 16 turnovers per game hasn’t helped matters, nor has their dismal 63 percent free throw shooting. Right now, Byron Wesley is the only guy that first year head coach Andy Enfield can rely on for points, and even Enfield is struggling, suffering two of his three lowest scoring games of the season in the Trojans last two losses.
While USC is struggling, Cal has emerged as an elite team in a quality conference, reeling off a perfect 5-0 SU and ATS run to open PAC-12 play. Mike Montgomery’s team has been ‘spot-proof’ thusfar, able to avoid any sort of a letdown even in some very iffy situations. The Bears have shown no mercy towards weaklings, cashing at a 67 percent clip for the season as favorites of -7 or higher. Ride the hot, fade the cold.
Nelly
Atlanta Hawks - over Orlando Magic
Orlando is 1-11 in the last 12 games and only one of the 11 losses came by fewer than six points. They did beat the Hawks at home in late December, winning by just seven despite shooting over 55 percent. This will be the third game in four nights for the Magic with travel to Brooklyn mixed in between home games and the Hawks have had a day to regroup after a big win over Miami on Monday afternoon. The Hawks are only 6-13 S/U on the road this season and Atlanta has performed better against quality teams but the Hawks are 7-4 ATS as a favorite of at least five points but less than nine points. This is only the third time all season Atlanta has been a road favorite (1-1) while Orlando is 3-7 ATS the last 10 games as a home underdog. Given that Orlando has won the last two meetings in this series this should be a game the Hawks are focused for and the Magic have really struggled since losing Nikola Vucevic, going just 1-7 ATS in his absence. The Hawks are 15-5 ATS in the last 20 meetings between these teams including 8-2 in the last 10 trips to Orlando so the recent results losses in this series have been out of the norm. The Magic are a bottom five team in offensive efficiency and the Hawks will push the pace of this game with Orlando going 0-9 S/U and 1-8 ATS the last nine games when allowing triple-digits.
Carlos Salazar
Boston Celtics at Washington Wizards
Play: Washington Wizards -7
Carlos likes the Wizards here on Wednesday night against the Boston Celtics. Even though the Celtics have gotten back Rondo he's still not 100% and the Wizards lead by Beal and Wall will be too much for the over matched and undermanned Celtics team.