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Oregon Ducks -9.5FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Oregon Ducks should be a much heavier favorite over the Washington State Cougars tonight. I look for them to roll by double-digits at home tonight while remaining unbeaten in Eugene this season.
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Oregon is 16-2 this season, including a perfect 12-0 at home. It is outscoring opponents 75.9 to 55.7 at home this year, or by an average of 20.2 points/game.
Washington State is just 10-8 this season, including 2-5 on the road. It has really bowed down to its tougher competition this season as it is just 1-4 SU & 1-4 ATS in conference play.
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The Cougars have lost both of their Pac-12 road games this season in ugly fashion against lesser competition than Oregon. They fell 67-78 at Stanford as a 9-point dog, and 54-67 at Cal as a 5.5-point dog. A third straight double-digit road loss in conference play is in store tonight.
Washington State is 0-7 ATS in road games in January games over the last 2 seasons. Oregon is 9-1 ATS after playing 2 consecutive road games over the last 3 seasons. The Cougars are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 road games.
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The Ducks are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400. Washington State is 0-4 ATS in its last 4 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. Oregon is 20-6 ATS in its last 26 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. The Ducks are 6-1 SU & 6-1 ATS in their last 7 meetings with the Cougars. Bet Oregon Wednesday.
Steve Janus
Indiana Pacers +1.5
Indiana's head coach Frank Vogel has made a point to his team that they have to play better on the road if they want to be taken seriously. The Pacers responded in their last game by going into Memphis and beating the Grizzlies 82-81 as a 6-point underdog. Knowing that they got two difficult games at Denver and Utah to finish up their 4-game road trip, this is a very important game for the Pacers. You have to like Indiana's chances of getting a win tonight against a Portland team that is playing with zero confidence. The Trailblazers have lost six straight overall, with three straight losses at home against the likes of the Cavaliers, Bucks and Wizards.
Matt Fargo
FLORIDA vs. GEORGIA
PLAY: GEORGIA
It isn't very often we see road favorites this big, no matter how good the favorite is or how bad the underdog is. Florida is certainly a very good team but Georgia is not as bad as this is indicating. The Gators have won six straight games all of which have come by blowouts by at least 17 points and an average of 24.2 ppg. Because of this tremendous run, the number had to be inflated because runs like that gets even more of the public involved. Georgia is coming off a win in its last game as it took out LSU by nine points at home on Saturday. That snapped a three-game looking streak which started with a loss in Florida to the Gators so the Bulldogs will be out to make up for that defeat. Georgia has yet to win on the highway, going 0-4 in true road games and 0-2 on a neutral floor but it is a much more respectable 7-4 at home. Even though Florida won the first meeting by 33 points, that was at home and we need to look at the line value associated with this rematch. The Gators were favored by 19.5 points and now they are favored by just 2.5 points fewer on the road. Georgia falls into a solid situation here as we play against favorites of 10 or more points with a winning percentage of .800 or better on the season after successfully covering the spread in four or more consecutive games, playing a team with a losing record. This situation is 40-15 ATS (72.7 percent) over the last five seasons. The home team has covered four straight meetings and with this generous number, we can make it five straight after tonight.
Brandon Lee
Pistons +6.5
The Bulls are coming off a huge 95-83 win at home over the Lakers, but I think they will struggle to cover the spread tonight against the Pistons. Detroit is coming off a 105-90 win at home over the Magic last night and will be extremely motivated tonight. The Pistons haven't won in Chicago since Dec. of 2008. Their 16 straight home wins over Detroit is tied for the second longest active streak. The key here is that the Bulls are still playing without Derrick Rose and could be without Luol Deng. Chicago is relying almost only on their defense to win games right now, and I look for the defensive effort to be lacking after laying it all on the line Monday against the Lakers. Take the Points!
Dave Price
Southern Illinois +11
The value lies with Southern Illinois here. Northern Iowa checks in off a 30-point win over Drake, and Southern Illinois enters off a 14-point loss to Illinois State. With these contests in mind, consider that plays against favorites of 10 or more points that are coming off a blowout win of 20 points or more over a conference rival and are matched up against an opponent that is coming off a loss by 10 points or more to a conference rival are 72-37 ATS the last 5 seasons. In addition, Northern Iowa is on a soft 20-36 ATS run as favorite of 10 or more points. Southern Illinois lost both meetings with N. Iowa last season but kept the margin to single digits in both. The Salukis are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 road games and 7-2 ATS in their last 9 road games versus a team with a winning home record. Take the points.
Dennis Macklin
Texas A&M +1
Neither one of these teams could score in the solitary confinement ward of a women's prison, A&M posting 47 and 49 in their last two games and LSU shooting less than 30% from downtown and just 61% at the foul line. In the Aggies defense, that's just what they do. In fading LSU, they're just a bad up tempo team that can't shoot. Texas A&M plays great defense and then runs a very slow deliberate offense that runs 25 seconds off the clock before it begins to run a play. When the Aggies play well, they are a handful. Three back they beat Kentucky which in itself is not all that impressive now. In their last, they snatched defeat from the jaws of victory with a bad final minute at Alabama. Further, the Aggies are 7-1 SU and ATS against teams outside the Top 100 and generally fare well against their own kind. LSU is 0-4 in the SEC after playing a non-conference schedule (ranked #325) full of tomato cans. This one will be hard on the eyes to watch but easy on the wallet when you cash your ticket. Take Texas A&M
Jeff Alexander
New Orleans Hornets +8.5
The Spurs are getting a little too much respect from oddsmakers here against a Hornets team that is playing well and has given the Spurs problems. New Orleans is 7-2 SU and ATS in its last 9 games. This run includes a 95-88 win over the Spurs. San Antonio won the season's first two meetings but only by 4 and 5 points, respectively. The Hornets have been extremely reliable in the underdog role at 52-37 ATS when catching points the last 2 seasons. They are 32-17 ATS as a road underdog over the last 2 seasons. The underdog is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings. Take New Orleans and the points.
Nelly
Georgia Tech + over North Carolina
With four straight losses Georgia Tech's strong start to the season had faded but they have had to play some of the best teams in the ACC to start the conference season. Georgia Tech lost to Miami, NC State, and Duke and then also lost in overtime against Virginia Tech for a 0-4 start in conference play. The Yellow Jackets only lost twice in non-conference play, losing away from home against California and Illinois. They picked up wins over St. Mary's and Georgia and the defense has led the way. Georgia Tech is allowing just 58 points per game while holding foes to only 37 percent shooting. North Carolina has great talent but this is a team that would be squarely on the NCAA tournament bubble right now as the resume is not very impressive. The Tar Heels have five losses including bad losses to Texas and Virginia and both ACC wins came in very tight games. Those wins over Florida State and Maryland as well as a narrow win over UNLV are the best wins on the resume but this is a team that has shown great inconsistency due to its youth. Georgia Tech has won S/U in four of the last five meetings between these teams and has gone 16-5 ATS in the last 21 meetings as this will be a much bigger game for the underdog. North Carolina has a huge game with NC State on deck so overlooking this game is a real possibility and the Yellow Jackets will play with desperation with the 0-4 start through a brutally tough starting slate in the ACC. Four of the last five wins for North Carolina have come by 10 points or less and all but one major conference win came by 10 or less as this is not a team likely to play clean enough to deliver a blowout in this situation.
Harry Bondi
NC WILMINGTON (+7.5) over Georgia State
We had the Panthers of Georgia State on the "Steam Team" phone service Monday in their 71-69 outright win over Towson as 5 point underdogs but will go against them here as they should not be laying this kind of lumber to anyone in the CAA even NC Wilmington. Georgia State is not real deep and will be playing their third game in five days while Buzz Peterson's Wilmington squad has been off for a week. This is as big a favorite as Georgia State has been all year and they will not get over the number. Take NC-Wilmington plus the points.
Joe Gavazzi
Miami +3
Even Plumlee admits it, "we are not the same team without Kelly." And until Duke makes the needed adjustments, they are far from their current #1 ranking. Eleven nights ago, we faded Duke as 3 point road chalk in their lone loss of the season (and only road game) at NC St. It dropped Coach K's record to 3-22 ATS road fav -2+, following a conference SUATSW, if now playing a greater than .650 foe. Now they are facing a team who is BETTER than NC St. The Hurricanes had a bit of trouble adjusting to the loss of big man Johnson. Losing in Hawaii to AZ and IN St early in his absence. Since that time, however, they have won five consecutive games. With HC Laranaga they give away little on the pine to Coach K. This is a terrific defensive team allowing just 58/38/31 with positive rebound margin, TO margin, and assist / TO margin. They turnover ball less than 11 times per game. Laranaga has outstanding point spread marks, including 77-51 ATS home vs conference foes, 32-14 ATS if allowing sub 65 in consecutive games, and 37-16 ATS following consecutive victories. Wrong team favored as #1 loses again.
Iowa St -10 ½
With defenses even at 70 PPG for each, this becomes an offensive game. That makes it no contest. TTRR is a team in coaching turmoil, with former assistant Chris Walker at the helm. They convert just 43% from the field, 27% from the arc, and turnover the ball more than 15 times per game. They are on a run of 4-10 ATS home dog, and a pair of home games vs Kansas and Baylor, they have lost by an average of 23 PPG. Enter high scoring Iowa St who under HC Hoiberg (the Mayor of Ames) love to launch the three. This team averages 81 PPG, shooting 45% from the field, and knocks down nine threes per game at 36%. But they are more than just a pretty face, with a defense that allows just 40% from field and 30% from the arc. Hoiberg and his minions are on a 20-6 ATS run in conference play. Cyclones blow'em away.
Jeff Scott Sports
4 UNIT PLAY
New Mexico State/ Denver Over 114.5: (Added) Ok here we have a Denver team, who's games average 118.1 ppg and on the other side we have a New Mexico State team, who's games have averaged 132.6 ppg on the year. Both of those numbers are higher than tonight's total and if we middle them we get a total of 125.3 ppg. Denver comes in allowing 48.8 ppg in their last 5 games, but none of those teams were good offensive teams, like the one they will face tonight. The Aggies have averaged 72.9 ppg and have shot an impressive 51.9% at home on the year. I do not see them being held in the 50's in this one. At home the Aggies have allowed just 58.3 ppg and Denver scores just 57 ppg on the road, but I feel that Denver can reach the 60's as well. Denver's offense has picked up of late as they have averaged 67 ppg on 51.1% shooting in their last 5 games, while the Aggies have allowed 64.9 ppg (regulation) in their last 8 games overall. Clearly I expect both teams to hit the 60's here as this game puts up at least 125 points.
3 UNIT PLAYS
Washington State +11 over OREGON: In their first 5 conference games the Ducks have taken on OSU, both Arizona squads (at home) and USC and UCLA on the road. Yes they won all 5, but now must come home and face a lowly Washington State squad that is just 1-4 in the conference. I smell a letdown here. I just can't see Oregon getting too excited about this one, especially with Washington on deck. WSU is just 1-4 in the conference, but just one of those losses were by double digits and they have been outscored by just 5.6 ppg in Pac-12 play this year. This really looks like a flat spot for Oregon and that should allow the Cougars to keep this one i single digits.
Duke/ Miami Over 130: Would have been nice to get this a bit earlier at 128, but I still expect 135+ points in this one. Miami's ACC games have averaged just 114.5 ppg, but a closer look shows that 3 of those games were vs BC, Maryland and Georgia Tech, which are 3 of the slowest paced teams in the conference. They did have a game vs Carolina, in which just 127 points were scored, but that is an inconsistent Carolina squad and not the same as in years past. Duke is one of the better teams in the ACC and their offense has been solid all year, averaging 78.7 ppg overall and 76 ppg on the road, while not being held to less than 67 points all year. Duke's defense has been solid this year, but mostly at home as they allowed 84 points in their lone true road game and have allowed 67 ppg in ALL games away from home this year. Miami should also hit the 65 point mark here, as they come in averaging 73 ppg on their home floor. Miami games have gone 0-10-1 to the under this year, but feel that ends tonight as his game hits at least 135 points.
Florida/ Georgia Over 120: The Over is 8-1-1 the last 10 in this series. Earlier when these teams met there were 121 points scored and i feel we can get a few more out of this one. The Gators are playing at such a high level right now especially defensively, but still they do allow 53.8 ppg on the road this year and just 2 of their last 10 games put up less than 120 points and one of those was 119 vs FSU. Florida allowed Georgia just 44 points in the first meeting, but the Bulldogs have scored 63.3 ppg in their 3 games since that game and they have averaged 63.6 ppg at home. Have to believe that the Dawgs can notch 53 or 54 in this in this one. That would be golden cause I really don't see Florida scoring less than 70 in this one. Florida put up 77 points in the first meeting and they average 71.8 ppg on the road, plus they will be taking on a Bulldog tea that has allowed 72 points or more in 4 of their last 6 games and 3 of their last 4 vs the SEC. I clearly expect 125+ points to be scored in this one.
Steve Merril
Washington vs. Utah
Pick: Washington
We’ll take the points with the confident underdog as they take this game right down to the wire.
Washington is playing terrific basketball right now; the Wizards have won five of their last seven games and they’ve also covered the pointspread in eleven of their last fourteen ballgames. John Wall’s presence on the court just makes this team a whole lot better; he returned for the Wizards 93-83 win over Atlanta last Saturday night. Washington also has defensive stopper Trevor Ariza and Nene back on the court which makes them a complete team on both ends of the court. “It completely changes the dynamics of this team,” Martell Webster said. Washington is 2-2 SU on their current 5-game road trip, but their two losses have come by a combined 8 points.
Utah is also playing well right now; the Jazz have won 3 consecutive games and five of their last six games overall. But their momentum has been interrupted since they’ve had a full three days off since playing their last game. While the rest is nice, it’s also a negative when a team is in good rhythm which Utah was in. The Jazz also have a bigger game on deck in Los Angeles against the Lakers so they may be peeking ahead a bit to that game. We’ll take the points with the confident underdog as they take this game right down to the wire.
Jesse Schule
L.A. Lakers vs. Memphis
Pick: Memphis
Now an UNBELIEVABLE 13-1 with complimentary hoops plays in 2013! I will test that record with another FREE play on the Grizz tonight. The Lakers will come into Memphis tonight with a 5-14 record on the road this season, taking on the best defensive team in the NBA.
The Grizz boast an impressive home record of 15-6 in Memphis, but they have lost two of their last three at home. One of those losses was against the Clippers, and the other was an 82-81 loss to Indiana.
L.A. has lost six straight road games, and it seems almost mind-boggling that they are only a slight underdog here in this game. The Grizz have won and covered in each of the last two meetings with L.A. The Lakers haven't been a good bet when they have played the Grizz in recent seasons, with a record of 6-13 ATS in their last 19 meetings.
The Lakers are 1-10 against teams with a winning record away from home this year, yet they are getting just a couple of points against one of the best teams in the Western Conference.
Dwight Howard is already starting to speak out, saying he isn't happy in L.A., this is something we have heard before from Howard, who cried like a baby because he wanted out of Orlando for the past two seasons. Kobe is starting to question his teammates as well as his coach, saying: "We're going to have to look at some things," he said. "We're going to have to change something. Probably going to have to post the ball a lot more, slow the game down a lot more. That's just my intuition, but that's my gut right now."
The bottom line is, the Lakers simply aren't a good team, and yet the public is still backing them. They are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games overall, and I think they are going to continue to struggle in Memphis tonight.
Kyle Hunter
South Florida +5½
The South Florida Bulls are good at staying in the game because of their style of play. South Florida slows the game down in a big way, and the Bulls play very good defense as well. Seton Hall is a young team and I don't expect them to handle the defensive pressure from USF very well. I'll take the points with the more experienced and better defensive team here. Take USF.
Charlie Scott
Colorado State vs. New Mexico
Play: New Mexico
Time to come back to reallity for Colorado St players and fans. Colorado St is coming off One of their biggest wins ever, a 66-61 win vs UNLV at Moby arena Saturday. Meanwhile New Mexico has had a week off to prepare and rest. New Mexico's Home Court (Pit) will be loud and as Rebel fans know, the Pit Home court advantage isn't just about the noice level, but always seems to brings some "Home Cooking" calls from the officials.