Tom Stryker
Air Force vs. Colorado St
Play: Colorado St -8½
Off a home loss to No. 9 BYU and with a road war at Utah on deck, you can bet your last dollar that Colorado State won't overlook Air Force on Wednesday night. The Falcons visit Moby Arena off a monster 21-point home win over Wyoming and they have CSU's full attention.
If you want to fade the Flyboys, the perfect place to do it is when they're on the road. As a guest, AFA is a dismal 8-36 SU and 16-27-1 ATS including a woeful 4-13 SU and ATS in this role matched up against an opponent that scoots in off a straight up loss. Even worse, in conference action entering off two or more pointspread wins, Air Force has crash landed notching a dismal 4-12 SU and 3-13 ATS mark including a stunning 0-8 ATS in this set on the road.
Quietly, Colorado State has been playing some incredible basketball posting a respectable 29-22 SU and 27-18-2 ATS record in its last 51 games. The Rams have enjoyed some tremendous success against Mountain West opponents too during this run notching a strong 14-8 ATS record including a perfect 7-0 SU and ATS in this role priced as a favorite. Also, as a conference host coming in off a straight up home loss, CSU is a reliable 23-12 SU and 21-14 ATS including a stunning 14-5 SU and ATS provided they check in off a blemish of six points or more.
If you want to beat the Rams, you better be able to put some points on the board. CSU is averaging 76.1 points per game and connecting on nearly 50 percent (.497 to be exact) of its shots from the floor. Off the loss inside Moby Arena to the Cougars, the Rams will bounce back nicely here. Take Colorado State.
Chip Chirimbes
San Antonio Spurs vs. Utah Jazz
Play: Utah Jazz +4
The Utah Jazz have fallen upon hard times of late failing to cover in 13 of their last 16 games while winning just 7 and losing 9. Returning home after a five-game road trip might be just what they need as they have been one the NBA's best at home over the years. The Jazz swept San Antonio last year and will be looking for their first win over the Spurs this season tonight...they get it. Take UTAH!
Bryan Leonard
Central Florida at Memphis
Play: Central Florida
The Golden Knights were the talk of the town early in the season, getting recognition at ESPN and cracking the Top 25. But they have fallen on hard times as of late losing four straight games including back to back efforts at home. That puts Central Florida in a must win situation tonight when they head to Memphis to take on the Tigers.
While we know we will get a supreme effort from the visitor we're not sure we can say the same for the host. Memphis has reeled off three straight victories, including back to back nail bitting upset wins on the road at Southern Miss and UAB. The Tigers expended great energy in those two games and they may not have the killer instinct tonight. After all they have won the last five games in this series and have come up short ATS 8 of 11 games this year against teams with a winning record. We expect Memphis to struggle to put away a feisty bunch of Knights tonight as Central Florida takes this one to the wire.
JR O'Donnell
James Madison -4.5
These Drexel Dragons just can't hang on the road, We are based here near Philadelphia and this Bruzzer Flint crew is not the right side tonight. The Dragons are $$$ at home but are true strong play against prop on the road as they have dropped 5 in a row by 12.4 points. The big big factor here is that if you dig deep is the Dragons are awful from the FT line away.. How about a 58% spot on the road from the stripe. POOR POOR STAT there gang, The flip side is this 15-6 JMU crew can hoop it up!! The Dukes are off a heart breaker vs the Hofsta Pride & we will look for the Dukes to bounce back after 3 ugly losses . ODU, G Mason & Hofsta ouch.... The Dukes average 74 ppg #1 in CAA & they are the best in the Conference behind the 3 point Arc!! 42% WOW! The Dragons do play D, however these Dragons live and die by the play of sophomore guard Chris Fouch who will be shut down by the Dukes.... JMU is a terrific spot as the Favorite is 3-1-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings and these Dragons are 1-4 ATS in the last 5 meetings in James Madison.
Tony George
Texas -4.5
Everyone is going to be on Okie State tonight as Stillwater is a BRUTAL PLACE to play and the Cowboys are undefeated at home. I am taking the contrarian play here with who I feel is playing the best ball in the Big 12 tonight without question and off a confidence boosting 11 point road win at Kansas , who also has a brutal home court to win on, when they were a 7 point dog on Saturday and I nailed them as a Top Play. Just too much depth and talent and a solid advantage at scoring and a big rebounding edge. Texas swept the series last year including a 12 point win in Stillwater. Okie State off a 19 point road loss to Baylor, and texas far superior to Baylor, even playing on the road. Lay the wood with Texas
Jimmy Boyd
1 Unit on Penn State -7.5
Off back-to-back losses at Ohio State and Purdue by a total of 4 points, the Nittany Lions will be ready to take out their frustrations on one of the worst teams in the Big Ten this evening. Iowa has lost all 3 of its Big Ten road contests by 10 or more points. In fact, 5 of Iowa's 6 conference defeats have come by 10 or more points. Iowa is coming off a double-digit win over Indiana - it's first Big Ten victory - but this is not the time to side with the Hawkeyes. Consider that Iowa is 0-6 ATS in road games following a win of 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons, losing by an average of 18.0 points in this situation. We also can't ignore the fact that Penn State is 10-0 ATS in its last 10 games as a home favorite of 6.5 to 9 points, winning these contests by an average of 17.8 points. Take Penn State.
Matt Fargo
San Diego State vs. BYU
Play San Diego St +5.5
There has been a lot of hype building up for this game and for very good reason as it is a rarity to have two top ten teams from a non-major conference squaring off. For BYU, the game will feature a top 10 BYU team taking on a top 10 opponent in the Marriott Center for the first time in the facility’s history. The Cougars are 8-0 at home this season and their only loss came against UCLA on a neutral floor in Anaheim. This has become one of the toughest venues for visiting teams to have success in. San Diego St. looks to remain one of only two undefeated teams in the country but it will not be easy. The Aztecs, despite being undefeated and ranked higher, are getting a healthy number here. This is a spot we would normally look at the home team based on public perception and perceived value but sometimes those angles are overshadowed by pure matchup advantages and that is what San Diego St. possesses and it is something you won’t see in the stats. Malcolm Thomas, Kawhi Leonard and Billy White form arguably the best frontcourt in the country. This is an issue for the Cougars because they simply cannot match up down low which will enable San Diego St. to dominate down low with easy baskets and a formidable rebounding advantage. Cougars forwards Brandon Davies and Noah Hartsock are playing well but cannot compete here. BYU Guard Jimmer Fredette is the best player here but even he cannot do it all when things will come so easy for the Aztecs down low. San Diego St. falls into a very solid situation as well. Play on teams that are coming off two consecutive conference wins by 10 points or more going up against opponents that are coming off a road win scoring 85 or more points. This situation is 27-6 ATS (81.8 percent) over the last five seasons. The Aztecs are 7-0 ATS this season against elite teams that are outscoring opponents by four or more ppg this season but BYU is 0-6 ATS this season following a spread cover. 3* San Diego St. Aztecs
Rob Vinciletti
Denver Nuggets vs. Detroit Pistons
Play: Detroit Pistons +2.5
This game looks like a trap game for Detroit coming off a huge Double digit dog win at Orlando and now coming home to take on an un rested Denver team off a road favored win and cover vs Washington. The Pistons though have won 14 straight here at home vs Denver and qualify in a 51-22 system that plays on home dogs with a win percentage of .333 or higher off a dog win at +6 or more vs an opponent off a win if both teams have 1 or less day of rest. The Nuggets are just 1-3 this year as a road favorite of 3 or less, while Detroit is 4-1 straight up as a home dog of 3 or less. Very hard to believe Denver has a 5-13 road record this season. Look for Detroit to get the cash.
Ross Benjamin
Oklahoma City @ Minnesota
Play: Minnesota +5.5
Minnesota has won 8 of its 10 games this season at home. The Wolves are also shooting a blistering 43.1% from beyond the three-point line at home this season which often times is the great equalizer for a decided underdog. Minnesota has shot 50% or better from the field in their last 2 games. While the Thunder has allowed their last two opponents on the road to shoot 50% or better from the field. Despite the huge disparities in the records between these two clubs there is value in the home underdog in this spot. Any road favorite of between 3.5-9.5 that has gone under the total in their last 4 or more games in a row is 24-53 ATS since the start of the 2005-0006 season. Play on the Minnesota plus the points as my free selection of the night.
John Ryan
New Jersey Devils at Detroit Red Wings Jan 26 2011 7:35PM
Prediction: New Jersey Devils
5* graded play on the New Jersey Devils as they take on the Detroit Red Wings set to start Wednesday at 7:00 PM ET. My proprietary sports handicapping database and simulator shows a high probability that the Devils will win this game.
Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 41-39 making 42.8 units since 2005. Play against home favorites of -200 or higher against the money line off a home loss against a division rival. The average play has been a +193 DOG making this one incredible system to retain for your records and track for qualifying money making plays.
This system is analogous to playing Black Jack at the casino and playing 80 hands and winning two more hands than you lost. Wagering $10 per hand you walk out with a $20 profit disregarding double-downs and Black Jack winning hands. With the system you are essentially getting paid $1.93 for every winning $1.00 played. So, if you wagered $10 on every hand with the system results you would have made a whopping $428 profit.
Devils are not a strong offensive team ranking in the bottom third of NHL teams in most major offensive categories. They rank 10th best in penalty killing preventing goals in 83.4% of their opponents power play opportunities. This matches up well against a high powered Red Wings power play unit.
Red Wings are strong on the offensive end ranking 2nd in scoring at 3.4 goals per game and 5th on the power play converting 21.8% of their power play opportunities.
The Chicago Black hawks did an excellent job on the defensive end and defeated the Red Wings 4-1 this past Saturday. New Jersey has the personnel to get the same results. Moreover, they are a solid 22-9 against the money line making 11.2 units per one unit wager after having won five or six of their last seven games over the last two seasons.
Take the New Jersey Devils.
SPORTS WAGERS
DETROIT +109 over Denver
The Nuggets never win at the Palace and there’s no reason to believe that’ll change here. For one, the Pistons are playing great with five wins in their last seven games and that includes a win in Orlando in their last game. The Pistons are 12-9 at home while the Nuggets have won just six of 19 road games. Furthermore, the Nuggets will play their third game in four nights and their fifth game in seven nights and again, this venue is one they’d like to avoid. So yeah, the Nuggets look appealing as a small road favorite but the situation is a tough one for them and the number suggests just that. Play: Detroit +109 (Risking 2 units).
XAVIER –13 over George Washington
This is a complete mismatch, as Xavier is undefeated in A-10 action and they’ve also won 35 straight games at home against conference foes. The Colonials are 10-9 overall but so what. They’ve played every dreg in the nation and when they play even the slightest tough competition they get rolled. Over its last two games, GW was outscored by Richmond by 19 points in the second half and followed that up with a 13-point home loss to the Bonnies. They’ll come into this game knowing they have no shot of winning. The Musketeers own this conference and have for years. At St. Bonnies two games ago, Xavier won by 14, the same team that the Colonials lost on their home floor to by 13. This is about as daunting a task as the Colonials will face all year, that being, playing on the road against a vastly inferior Musketeers club. GW can’t score, they have awful percentages from the floor and again, that’s after playing a whole slew of bad teams. It gets worse here. Play: Xavier –13 (Risking 2.1 units to win 2).
New Jersey +165 over DETROIT
Pretty hard to ignore the red-hot Devils at this price against a banged up and somewhat struggling Red Wings. Detroit has just two wins in its last six games, against the Blues and Jackets and both came in OT. Conceivably, they could be on a six-game losing streak. Detroit is really banged up with some key injuries and with a whole slew of aging players they’re as anxious to get to the break as any team in the league. The Red Wings are also aware that Pavel Datsyuk, Danny Cleary, Mike Modano and Tomas Holmstrom are all close to returning and three of the four could get back into action right after the break and that’s when the real Red Wings will appear. The Devils wish there was not a break right now. They’ve won six of seven with one OT loss and most of the wins were of the impressive variety. Over that stretch, New Jersey has outscored its opponents 28-13. Also during that stretch the Devils beat the Bolts twice and the Flyers once and two of those three were on the road. Great price on the hot team. Play: New Jersey +165 (Risking 2 units).
ATLANTA +120 over Washington
Speaking of teams looking forward to the break and one need not look further than the Caps. For the first time in years the Caps had a very frustrating first half. They’ve been struggling offensively for weeks and have scored three goals or fewer in 19 of its past 21 games. Over their last 24 games the Caps have just nine wins. Washington’s last three wins have come against Ottawa, the Islanders and the Leafs, arguably three of the worst teams in the NHL. The Thrashers aren’t exactly setting the world on fire either but the Caps seem to bring out the best of them. Atlanta has won the last two games against the Caps and outscored them 8-1. It’s also worth noting that the Thrashers are coming off a humiliating 7-1 loss to the Bolts, a team they never beat and surely they’ll be a lot more focused here against a team they know they can beat. Caps favored on the road are unappealing at best. Play: Atlanta +120 (Risking 2 units).
San Jose +106 over LOS ANGELES
Two underachieving clubs meet here with both being on modest winning streaks. The Sharkies have reeled off four straight while the Kings have won two in a row for the first time in a month. The difference is that the Kings have won just three of their last 11 games vs Western Conference opposition and the Sharks have won an incredible 16 of their last 21 games in Los Angeles. At this point the Kings are not to be trusted as the chalk, as they’re just not winning enough when they’re favored and the Sharks are always a live pooch. Overall, the Kings have dropped seven of their last 10 games at Staples and always have a tough time with this intruder. Play: San Jose +106 (Risking 2 units).
Carolina -½ +129 over N.Y. ISLANDERS
Don’t like laying pucks on the road but this one has some merit. For one, the Canes have a huge edge in net with Cam Ward over anyone the Islanders can throw out there. Hopefully, it’ll be that stiff Rick DiPietro. Then we have the Islanders playing an extremely physical game in Pittsburgh last night, as both teams were hitting everything in sight and both teams played with a ton of intensity for 60 minutes. The Islanders lost 1-0 and losing takes its toll a lot more than winning. Now the Islanders will play their third game in four days, both losses and this is a team they have nothing but trouble against. The Canes are rested and they’re healthy. They have no players on the rack while the Islanders have nine at last count. Carolina beat the Islanders 7-2 in the only meeting this season and beat them twice last year too. Over the last three games against the Islanders the Canes have outscored them 14-4. This is a favorable spot for the Canes and there’s no excuses whatsoever for losing this one. Play: Carolina -½ +129 (Risking 2 units).
Wunderdog
TCU vs. New Mexico
Play: TCU +12.5
The Lobos streaked out early to a 10-1 start, but have really shown vulnerability since as they have posted just a 3-6 mark and have dropped their last three. The Horned Frogs have been unimpressive on the season and have posted just a 1-7 straight up mark in their last eight games. Those Numbers show positive signs for TCU as they have had good bounce back off an ATS loss, following with a 7-2 ATS mark. The Lobos are not getting it done at home where they are now 4-10 ATS in their last 14 and just 1-7 ATS in their last eight games overall, as well as 0-5 ATS as a favorite. The road team has taken four straight and, although the 9-1 home record is impressive for the Lobos, the ATS mark shown above tells a different tale. I'll go with TCU in this one.
Jack Jones
Magic/Pacers OVER 203
I'll side with the OVER tonight in the Magic/Pacers game Wednesday. These teams have combined to score 204 or more points in six of their last eight meetings overall, so as you can see there is some value with this OVER tonight. Orlando is scoring at a much higher rate since making their blockbuster trade. The Magic have put up 104 or more points in 11 of their last 15 games overall. Indiana is also starting to get more done on the offensive end, putting up 102 or more points in five of their last seven contests.
The Pacers have almost forgotten how to play defense here of late, allowing 103 or more points in five of their last eight games. They have given up 110-plus in three of their last four, yielding an average of 110.5 PPG during this stretch. The OVER is 6-2 in Orlando's last 8 road games. The OVER is 5-1 in Pacers last 6 games following a S.U. loss. The OVER is 4-1 in Pacers last 5 games playing on 2 days rest. With the way both teams are playing of late, the final combined score of this contest should sail OVER the number tonight. Bet the OVER Wednesday.
Ray Monohan
San Diego St vs. Brigham Young
Play: Brigham Young -5
The San Diego State Aztecs are 20-0, and they have some solid wins already this year. They go on the road tonight taking on #9 BYU Wednesday night in Provo, Utah. BYU is 19-1 and they are unbeaten on their home court. Both of these teams have a chance to make some serious noise in March. The BYU Cougars are led by Jimmer Fredette, who is a legitimate player of the year candidate. Fredette is averaging 26.6 points per game and he has topped 40 points twice in the last three games. BYU averages 85 points per game, which is good enough for fifth in the nation. The Cougars swept San Diego State last season and have won five of the last six meetings. BYU figures to jump San Diego State in the rankings with a win as long as it doesn’t stumble Saturday against New Mexico. Both of these teams are far better than most people realize and the winner will have a leg up in the battle for the regular-season Mountain West crown. BYU is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games, 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home, and 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing at home against San Diego State. I'm on the home team tonight.
Jeff Alexander
1 Unit on Oklahoma State Cowboys +5
Off a big upset win over Kansas, the Longhorns are in for a letdown when they hit the road tonight. Oklahoma State, meanwhile, finds itself in a bounce back spot following a disappointing performance at Baylor. It has not been good practice to go against the Cowboys at home. They are a perfect 10-0 SU at home this season and 5-0 ATS in home lined games. Looking back, the Cowboys are an impressive 37-12-2 ATS in their last 51 home games. Texas has been a poor investment when laying points on the road. The Longhorns are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games as a road favorite and 5-15-1 ATS in their last 21 games as a road favorite of 6.5 points or less. Take the Cowboys and the points tonight.