Info Plays
3* Detroit Pistons +2.5
Reasons why Detroit will cover:
1) Denver got a rare road win and cover at Washington last night. The Nuggets are just 9-19 ATS as a road favorite over the last 2 seasons, and just 2-11 ATS as a road favorite of 3 points or less over the last 2 seasons.
2) The Pistons are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games as a home underdog, and are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record.
3) Denver is just 6-17-5 ATS in their last 28 games following a SU win of more than 10 points, and are only 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games playing on 0 days rest.
Steve Janus
2* Phoenix Suns -6
The Suns will be looking for revenge after falling to the Bobcats by 18 points earlier this season. Phoenix comes in off two losses on the road, and will look for a third straight cover on their home court, where they are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games following a road trip of 7 or more days.
Phoenix is 25-10 ATS when playing against a team with a losing record - 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons, and are 15-7-1 ATS in their last 23 games as a home favorite of 5.0-10.5.
Charlotte has struggled against high-powered offenses this season, as they are just 1-8 ATS when they allow 99 to 104 points in a game this season. Phoenix is averaging 107 a game at home this season, and should have no trouble taking down the Bobcats, who won at Sacramento last night. Charlotte is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games playing on 0 days rest.
Black Widow
1* on Charlotte Bobcats +7
Charlottte gets the call Wednesday as a nice-sized road underdog against the struggling Phoenix Suns. The Bobcats have taken three in a row from Phoenix by an average of 16.4 points, and they have nine wins in 15 games overall since Paul Silas replaced Larry Brown as coach Dec. 22. The Bobcats have allowed 85.5 points per game over back-to-back road wins. One player who is a Suns killer and is a big reason why they are 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings with Phoenix is Boris Diaw. Diaw, who spent three-plus seasons with the Suns, is averaging 22.4 points - 12.7 more than his career mark - in five games against his former team since he was traded in the deal that involved Jared Dudley in 2008. This team is 17-6 ATS in their last 23 against Pacific Division teams overall. The Bobcats are 10-1 ATS (+8.9 Units) when playing their 2nd road game in 2 days over the last 3 seasons. This trend just goes to show the mental toughness that Charlotte has as a team, and also the fact that they are undervalued quite frequently when playing the second of a back-to-back on the road. Take Charlotte and the points.
Dave Price
1 Unit on Thunder/Timberwolves OVER 220
Play Over on road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (OKLAHOMA CITY) after a close loss by 3 points or less, against an opponent that scored 105 points or more last game, are 49-21 (70%) since 1996. We are seeing an average of 222.3 total points scored in this situation. These 2 teams have been over this total in 2 or their last 3 meetings and I'm expecting another high scoring affair this evening. Bet the Over.
Karl Garrett
Philadelphia (-4') at TORONTO
NBA free play for Wednesday now, and it is a "triple-revenge" spot for the 76ers, as Toronto has held Philly at bay the last 3 times the teams have played, and have also won 6 of the last 7 straight up in this series.
Philadelphia though is in a good spot to exact some revenge, as Doug Collins' team heads north of the border with a modest 2 game winning streak on their side, and wins in 4 of their last 6 overall.
On the road, the Sixers are on a 10-4 spread run their last 14, and they are catching the Raptors at the right time as Toronto has lost 8 in a row straight up.
The Raptors are also just 9-12 against the spread at home this year, dropping 8 of their last 11 on their home floor to the number.
Revenge time for Philly tonight, lay it!
3♦ PHILADELPHIA
Scott Delaney
Denver (-2) at DETROIT
The Nuggets opened up an East Coast road trip with a blowout win over the Wizards, and I wouldn't be surprised to see them dismantle the rest of their hosts: Detroit, Cleveland, Philadelphia and New Jersey - all of whom have records below .500 this season.
This is the perfect spot for Denver to pick up some momentum prior to the All-Star Break.
The Nuggets are going to be fired up for this one, too, as they're hoping to end a 14-game losing streak in Motown, and I believe they'll do it, while covering the low number.
Though the Nuggets tend to struggle on offense in Detroit, averaging 89.2 points during their slide, they come into this one pouring in an average of 117.0 in their last eight games.
Let's take a shot with the Nuggets tonight.
4♦ DENVER
Bobby Maxwell
Oklahoma City (-5) at MINNESOTA
I'm 3-1 with my last four FREE plays and scoring a winner tonight on the NBA hardwood as I go ahead and lay the points with Oklahoma City on the road in Minnesota to take on the Timberwolves.
For my comp winner, Oklahoma City is looking to get out of a rut on the road and they have the perfect opponent to snap their three-game highway losing streak. The Thunder go to Minnesota tonight where they have won four straight games and against the Timberwolves who they have beaten seven straight games. That’s why I’ll lay the chalk with the Thunder on the highway tonight.
Oklahoma City went to Minnesota back on December 8 and scored a 111-103 win as five-point favorites and they already own two wins over the T’Wolves this season. The Thunder are 11-5-1 ATS in the last 17 meetings with Minnesota.
The T’Wolves have dropped four straight and nine of 10 overall and they have been a disaster at the betting window, dropping seven of nine ATS. They lost at home to Houston on Monday 129-125 as a three-point ‘dog and they were crushed in Los Angeles by the Clippers a week ago.
The Thunder have struggled lately, losing three of four overall, including Monday’s 91-89 loss at New Orleans, but they did cash as a 3½-point underdog. Oklahoma City is on ATS surges of 11-4 as a favorite, 37-15 after a straight-up loss, 4-1 as a road favorite and 7-2 against losing teams. The T’Wolves are on several ATS skids, including 1-5 at home, 4-10 on Wednesdays and 16-46 at home against teams with a winning road record.
Minnesota has no answer for Oklahoma City’s Kevin Durant who has averaged 30.9 points per game during the Thunder’s seven game winning streak. Guard Russell Westbrook has averaged 22.5 points and 11 assists in the two matchups this season. Lay the points and play Oklahoma City tonight.
2♦ OKLAHOMA CITY
Chuck O'Brien
Oklahoma City (-5) at MINNESOTA
For Wednesday’s NBA complimentary selection, take Oklahoma City as a slight road favorite at Minnesota.
The Thunder haven’t exactly been dominant of late, losing three of their last four games both straight-up and against the number, and all three losses occurred on the road. Then again, take a look at the opponents: Lakers, Nuggets and surging Hornets, and OKC lost that trio of contests by 7, 5 and 2 points, respectively.
Now the Thunder head to Minnesota to face a Timberwolves outfit that they’ve defeated eight straight times going back to March 2009. That includes four wins in Minnesota and two victories this season (117-107 as a 9½-point home favorite; 111-103 as a five-point road chalk). In the last five meetings, Kevin Durant and Co. have torched the lackluster TWolves defense for 109, 109, 116, 117 and 111 points.
Well, look at how that defense has performed over the last 10 days: 108-99 loss to the Magic; 113-102 loss to the Blazers; 126-111 loss to the Clippers; 129-125 loss to the Rockets. That four-game losing skid is part of a 1-9 slump for Minnesota, with the only win coming at home against the Wizards (who are 0-21 on the road. Additionally, despite catching some big pointspreads, the TWolves are just 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games (1-5 ATS at home).
Take out two games against defensive-minded squads (the losses to the Lakers and Hornets), and in five other contests since Jan. 8 Oklahoma City has tallied 101, 107, 125, 118 and 109 points. That’s an average of 112 ppg, and the Thunder will have no trouble meeting that average tonight against the defenseless TWolves. Oklahoma City (ATS runs of 37-15 after a loss and 11-4 as a favorite) cruises to the double-digit win.
4♦ OKLAHOMA CITY
Derek Mancini
Atlanta at MILWAUKEE (+2)
Taking Atlanta as the small road chalk seems like an excellent bargain, right? WRONG! This line makes absolutely no sense, and I for one am calling bull on this number. The public may not believe me, but that was the same thing they said the other day when I gave you the Pistons (who won outright) over the Magic Monday... So buyer beware, 'capping the NBA is a lot easier said than done.
Here's my point: its been well documented that this will be the first time the Hawks have a virtually healthy roster in recent memory (yes, I know Pape Sy is out but so what). We also know that both Salmons and Gooden are out to along with Jennings. So there's a huge disparity in talent here, and yet the oddsmakers seem to be ignoring that fact with such a close line. So what gives?
The answer lies in the chemistry of this Hawks team, as they seemed to excel with Marvin Williams out, and that's almost certainly because there was more shots to go around. Coach Drew decided not to comment on his lineup, and that shows just the kind of issues he's going to have getting everyone minutes. Eventually things will work themselves out, but for right now, I expect to see some growing pains.
The last factor to consider is motivation and focus. Looking for a letdown here from Atlanta as they poured everything they had into beating the Bobcats this past Saturday, following that disgusting loss to New Orleans. We know the Hawks are littered with a bunch of boneheaded players (see Johnson, Smith, Williams), all of which are infinately susceptible to lapses in focus. Coming into this game expecting to beat a short-handed Bucks team will be their downfall. Small play on Milwaukee plus the points over Atlanta Wednesday.
1♦ MILWAUKEE
Chris Jordan
Charlotte (+6) at PHOENIX
The Suns started a recent road trip looking awfully good, but stumbled at the end and now catch a rather upbeat Bobcats team that has been reujuvenated by offensive-minded coach Paul Silas, who replaced Larry Brown on Dec. 22.
I don't know if the Bobcats can win back-to-back games on the road, after winning last night in Sacramento, but I do believe they're going to give the Suns all they can handle in this one.
Straight out, Phoenix just looked sloppy and out of sorts at Detroit and Philadelphia, and I'm wondering if it'll come into this one thinking it can just snap back against a less-than thought of Charlotte team.
Well, think again. The Bobcats have won three straight against the Suns by an average margin of 16.4 points, and rides into the desert having won nine of 15 since Silas was named interim coach by Michael Jordan.
Charlotte has covered five straight with a suitcase in hand and seven in a row as an underdog. On the flipside, research reveals the Suns are mired on ATS slides of 3-8 as the installed chalk, 3-8 at home and 2-6 when laying points at home. I'll play the underdog.
3♦ CHARLOTTE
Stephen Nover
San Antonio (-3') at UTAH
I have two free Wednesday selections one of which is taking San Antonio to cover against Utah.
Utah is in a bad way right now. The Jazz are proving to be vastly overrated having lost five in a row - all on the road.
It's not just the losses but how bad the Jazz have been playing in these defeats. Utah has lost its past five matchups by an average of 15.8 points per game. The Jazz have shot 42 percent from the floor and averaged 91 points a game during this span.
Utah's latest loss occurred on Tuesday night to the Lakers, 120-91. The game was over by halftime with the Lakers leading, 66-38.
Now the Jazz have to play the best team in the NBA, San Antonio, with no rest. This is Utah's fourth game in six days and second in two nights. It's also the Jazz's first game back from their five-game road swing, marking their sixth different site in six games.
San Antonio is 38-7, easily the best record in the NBA. The Spurs are 32-0 when out-shooting their opponent. The Spurs are 14-5 on the road, 12-6-1 ATS. Utah has failed to cover in nine of its last 12 games versus Western Conference opponents.
San Antonio and Utah met once this season back on Nov. 19 with the Spurs winning, 85-72. The Jazz were playing much better back then and still lost by 13.
5♦ SAN ANTONIO
Joel Tyson
Villanova at PROVIDENCE (+5')
As for Wednesday's free play, the Providence Friars were able to put to bed a 6-game losing streak with the home upset win over Louisville this past Saturday, and now they take on another big gun from the Big East in Villanova.
My feeling is the Wildcats are laying a few points too many tonight, as 'Nova is only 2-2 against the spread in their true road games thus far this season.
Villanova has been able to capture the last 8 series meetings straight up, but they did fail to cover the double-digit impost the last time these 2 schools met last February.
One gets the feeling that the 17-2 Wildcats will come into Providence feeling very confident against a team they have owned. But conversely, the Friars have to be feeling good about the upset they sprung on Louisville this past Saturday, and I feel sure they will play this game with another huge chip on their shoulders.
Gotta take the points in this one and look for Providence to make a contest of it.
2♦ PROVIDENCE
Karl Garrett
St. John's (+8') at GEORGETOWN
After losing 3 in a row, including a loss at St. John's, the Hoyas have rallied back to win and cover back-to-back Big East battles as they enter play this Wednesday night.
Not exactly sure I am willing to lay close to 10 points in this game however, as the Red Storm are a desperate bunch as they head to D.C. for this Big East conference showdown.
Steve Lavin's team has been in a tailspin since knocking off the Hoyas, losing their last pair and 4 of their last 5 overall.
The good news for the Johnnies is the fact they have been a tough matchup for Georgetown, as the Red Storm has won outright in 3 of the last 4 meetings, and they have covered the spread the last 5 times these teams have gotten together.
G-Man gonna grab the generous impost as St. John's proves "sticky" once again for the Hoyas.
4♦ ST. JOHN'S
Chris Jordan
St. John's at GEORGETOWN (-8')
Great spot for the Hoyas tonight, who can pummel a league foe and gain some high marks for doing so.
Though the Red Storm are now 11-7 overall and 4-4 in Big East action, make note four of their last five league games have been losses. Not a good sign in coming into a hostile environment, to play a rugged Hoyas team that has won back-to-back games to improve to 3-4, and desperately needs another win to pul to .500 in Big East play.
Georgetown has been off since Jan. 18, and should be well-rested for a St. John's team that comes in after shooting a mere 39.5 percent from the field against Cincinnati and that ranks 164th in the nation with its 69.7 points per game average.
That's not going to cut it against a Georgetown team that ranks second in D-I basketball with its 50.8 field goal percentage and 46th in the nation with 75.8 points per game.
St. John's doesn't have the personnel to stay in this game, as it's mired in a 1-4 spread slide in Big East play, while the Hoyas have covered two in a row now. Lay the points tonight.
3♦ GEORGETOWN
Derek Mancini
Charlotte at TEMPLE (-16)
Seems like a lot of points to lay at first glance, but after watching the 49ers on the road plenty this season, there's no question there is for trouble tonight at Temple. Biggest issue they have is their already suspect defense completely evaporates on the road, allowing 77 ppg on nearly 46% shooting. That's bad news vs. an Owls squad that is markedly better at home offensively, shooting 48% from the field while averaging 73 ppg.
We also have to look at the revenge factor, as Temple used to dominate this series, winning 4 of the last 5 (5-0 ATS) prior to their most recent match up. In that game, the 49ers easily won outright 74-64 as a 1' point home dog, but that was a very different Charlotte team. No Shamari Spears has created a major hole for this 49ers squad, and hole that Temple can take advantage of with Allen and Randall (28 points at Xavier). Braswell's good, but without Spears to play off of, this 49ers frontcourt is vulnerable.
Finally, its no big secret the Owls have been a solid bet for some time now at home, going 38-14-1 ATS over their L53 there. Also, 49ers-backers will tell you how dangerous it is to back their team on the road, where they've gone 10-26-1 ATS over their L37 away. Long story short, look for the Owls to regain the upper hand in this series, and take it to the road weary 49ers tonight. Lay it with Temple big over Charlotte Wednesday.
2♦ TEMPLE
Bobby Maxwell
Texas at OKLAHOMA STATE (+5)
For my comp winner, Texas has struggled in visits to Stillwater, Okla. over the years and I expect more of the same tonight so let’s play this one smart and grab the points with Oklahoma State.
In this rivalry, the home team is 6-2-1 ATS in the last nine meetings and Oklahoma State is 9-0 at home this season, going 4-0 ATS in the four lined games. The Cowboys have already welcomed in rivals Iowa State and Kansas State and taken care of business.
Texas scored a big win at Kansas on Sunday, winning 74-63 as a seven-point underdog. You know the Longhorns were geared up for that one and there has to be a letdown going to play Oklahoma State tonight. That letdown is where we will get the cover. Texas might win the game, but they aren’t going to get the cover. This one will be a Cowboys’ victory or it will be a nail-biter for the Longhorns.
Texas is just 7-18-1 ATS in its last 26 Big 12 contests, while the Cowboys come in on ATS surges of 35-16-2 overall, 37-12-2 at home and 8-3-1 against teams with a winning record.
Grab the points and go with the home ‘dogs tonight. Play Oklahoma State.
5♦ OKLAHOMA STATE
Craig Davis
Texas at OKLAHOMA STATE (+5)
Today's free play is on Oklahoma State over Texas as they are a home dog getting around 6 points or so.
First off, the Cowboys haven't lost a home game yet this year. They are a perfect 9-0 at Gallagher-Iba Arena, beating teams like Kansas State, Iowa State, Stanford, Alabama, and Missouri State.
This is one of the toughest venues in all of college basketball to play in, and seeing that Texas enters tonight's game off a very emotional second-half domination of Kansas and an eventual 11-point win. Remember, they were trailing by 12 at halftime and battled all the way back for a very important win.
This game was Kansas's for the taking and they completely fell apart in the second half. Texas battled with everything they had to win that game, and I think they'll be a little flat tonight.
Oklahoma State scores nearly 80 points per game at home while allowing less than 66, and although I'm not calling for a 14-point OSU win tonight, I think it's ridiculous that they are catching this many points at home... no matter how well the Longhorns are playing.
OSU has beaten Texas two of the last three times they visited Gallagher-Iba, and we might be making it three of four tonight. Texas struggles from the free throw line this year, hitting just 66% of their shots from the stripe. That will come back to haunt them tonight.
Take OSU +5 or +6 as your free play of the day.
3♦ OKLAHOMA STATE
Chuck O'Brien
Texas Tech at IOWA STATE (-11)
For Wednesday’s complimentary college basketball selection, take Iowa State as a big home favorite against Texas Tech in Big 12 action.
Strictly a play against the Red Raiders here. Even though Texas Tech snapped five-game losing skid and finally got its first conference win of the season Saturday (72-71 over Nebraska), this is still a program that’s going backward. The one-point home victory over the mediocre Cornhuskers was without question Tech’s biggest of the season (the other wins have come against Delaware State, Texas A&M-Corpus Christi, Texas-Arlington, Oral Roberts, Georgia Southern, Liberty, Stephen F. Austin and Louisiana-Monroe).
And not only have the Red Raiders not won a game in seven trips away from Lubbock, they haven’t even been competitive, losing by double digits at Oklahoma, Kansas State (94-60!), UTEP, Washington (108-79) and North Texas (92-83), plus neutral-site losses to St. Mary’s (88-68) and South Florida. Texas Tech didn’t cash a single ticket in any of those contests, part of a dreadful 3-12 ATS mark overall.
True, Iowa State has struggled out of the gate in conference play, losing four of its first five games. However, three of the four losses were on the road (including a one-point loss at Nebraska and an overtime loss at Oklahoma State), and the other was a highly-competitive 84-79 home loss to Kansas as a 9½-point underdog.
The Cyclones’ only ugly performance all season came on Saturday at Missouri (87-54 loss as a 10½-point underdog). All of which means they’re going to be pissed off when they take the court tonight and ready to dole out a whipping against an inferior opponent that’s giving up 91.8 ppg on the road. Iowa State (14-6-1 ATS last 21 overall; 7-2-1 ATS last 10 conference games) rolls to an easy 20-point victory as the favorite cashes for the eighth time in the last 11 meetings in this rivalry.
4♦ IOWA STATE
Michael Cannon
San Diego State (+5) at BYU
Take the points with San Diego State on the road over Byu.
If this is a trap, I’m taking the bait. I just can’t see the Cougars separating themselves from an undefeated Aztecs team that returns all five starters from last season.
San Diego State is strong up front, but point guard D. J. Gay is probably the most important player on the roster. He is the one that gets the offense going and makes it possible for all those athletic frontliners to dominate.
Byu can’t match the quickness and productivity of Kawhi Leonard, Billy White and Malcolm Thomas. Instead, the Cougars rely on Jimmer Fredette for the majority of their offense.
That’s fine and all, but the Aztecs have enough balance to offset whatever damage Fredette does.
Take the points with San Diego State as they stay within the number.
3♦ SAN DIEGO STATE
Stephen Nover
San Diego State (+5) at BYU
It's not often you get to take this many points with a 20-0 top 10 team.
No knock on BYU. The Cougars are very good. But so is San Diego State. Maybe this is the spot where the Aztecs take their first loss, but I'll take this many points to have that proven.
San Diego State has had a full week to prepare, while BYU defeated Colorado State on the road this past Saturday. The extra time off should help the Aztecs deal with playing in high altitude.
San Diego State is 17-5-1 ATS in its last 23 road contests.
From a fundamental matchup perspective, the Aztecs have double revenge, experience, focus and a front line edge in talent and athleticism to pull the upset.
The Aztecs have used their extra practice time to work on cutting off BYU's high screens, a staple of the Cougars' offense used to free up Jimmer Fredette. Slowing down Fredette is the key to beating the Cougars. The Aztecs have the front court players to achieve this.
2♦ SAN DIEGO STATE
Sports Insights
Philadelphia 76ers -4.5
This looks like an ugly game on paper. Both the 76ers (19-25) and Raptors (13-32) have losing records and lack the starpower to keep most fans interested. However it is often the "under-the-radar" games that can have some value to sports bettors.
These two teams have been moving in opposite directions lately. Toronto has lost 9 of their last 10 games to climb further down into the cellar, while Philadelphia has gone 6-4 in their last ten games to try to get back to .500 on the season.
The betting percentages for this game are not as lopsided as usual for games that we highlight. In fact, the 76ers are currently receiving 53% of the bets, but we can not ignore some sharp money indicators on this game. Sports Insights has tracked an Olympic Smart Money Play (37-28 +5.67 units won) and a CRIS Steam Move (147-123 +10.77 units won) on the 76ers. These moves have pushed the line to 4.5 at most books, but make sure to shop for the best line before getting down on this game. Our Premium Pro members can also use the Line Watcher tool to setup popups and e-mails to alert them of line changes.
Although it is unusual, we will actually give up the points tonight, and hope to get back on the winning track. As always, you can sign up to have all of our Marketwatch articles sent directly to your inbox by signing up here.
OC Dooley
Louisville -7
Visiting West Virginia is severely shorthanded this evening with only 8 scholarship players available due to a pair of unusual circumstances. The Mountaineers have suspended star guard and leading scorer Casey Mitchell (16’ ppg) due to a major violation of team rules. What makes this suspension hurt even more than normal is the fact that Mitchell last time on the floor recorded his initial “double double” of the campaign in both the scoring and rebounding categories. West Virginia’s depth took another hit when forward Dan Jennings inexplicably walked off the team bench during the second-half a home victory back on Sunday and will also not be available for this particular ESPNU national cable broadcast. Due to a very tough schedule that sees Louisville after tonight traveling to a pair of very tough venues (Connecticut, Georgetown), this particular contest becomes vital for the Cardinals who will play 3 of the next 4 games on the road. The venue of tonight’s game is critical as Louisville ranks #15 nationally in average “steals per game” (10.5) at their brand new HOME facility. In this series Louisville has successfully “covered” the spread 5 of the past 7 times they have faced West Virginia including almost exactly one year ago when the Cardinals went into enemy territory as a substantial underdog of 6’ points and stayed within THREE points of the Mountaineers. I will admit that Louisville is coming off a stunning outright loss against a “beatable” opponent (Providence) where the offense was a dreadful 4-for-23 from behind the three-point arc. But for the entire season to date Louisville is UNDEFEATED where it counts (6-0 ATS) when off a low scoring affair which stayed “below” the posted total. The Mountaineers are off a very low scoring 56-46 triumph which opens the door to another staggering angle from my database research. In the past three years West Virginia is a disastrous 0-7 ATS when off a game where “115 or less” combined points were put on the scoreboard