DAVE COKIN
PITTSBURGH AT CLEMSON
PLAY: PITTSBURGH +3
Clemson was somewhat of an early season disappointment, but the Tigers have been a very pleasant surprise since ACC play got underway. Nevertheless, I see tonight’s game against Pittsburgh as a difficult challenge for Clemson and I’ll be lining up on the Panthers.
Clemson has succeeded in slowing down several opponents and creating some frustration for those teams in the process. I don’t think that’s as likely to be the case this evening. Pitt will be happy enough to play the game at a snail’s pace.
If that’s the scenario that unfolds, I believe it favors the Panthers are they are a very efficient offensive team when it’s not up and down the court. That’s not to suggest that Clemson is overmatched in any way tonight. But the numbers are pretty clear that in a duel of teams that are similar in approach, Pittsburgh does most things just a little better than the Tigers.
Both the Panthers and Tigers have a pair of frontcourt stars, and the likelihood is that the pairing that produces the better numbers tonight will end up leading their team to the win. It’s the Artis/Young combo for Pittsburgh going head to head with Blossomgame/Nnoko for Clemson. The Panthers should get some help with the possible return of Sheldon Jeter, a valuable commodity off the bench who has had some nice offensive games for Pitt.
This is close enough on paper, and I will be surprised if either team runs away with this one. That means a tight skirmish that likely goes down to the last few possessions. If that’s the case, grabbing three points could be very helpful. I’ll do exactly that here with the play on Pittsburgh.
Ken Thomson
Utah -5.5
Utes just finished up playing 5 of their first 7 PAC-12 games on the road. They won their past three roadies at Colorado and then swept the Washington schools with a rout of Wazzu and an OT Thriller at Washington vs. the Huskies. Jordan Loveridge hit 8 three's in the two wins in Washington and Jakob Poetl is starting to assert himself as the dominant pivot man we all anticipated coming into this season. California is still without Tyrone Wallace for another few weeks and that hurts the offense. The hometown faithful are looking for a game to get loud about at the Huntsman Center and this game should have the place rocking. If Brandon Taylor can contribute offensively the way he did in Pullman, Utah should roll.
Rob Vinciletti
Nuggets vs. Celtics
Play: Celtics -8½
Boston has covered the spread all 3 times as a home favorite from -6.5 to -9 and won and covered both times this season vs North West divisional teams like Denver. The Nuggets embark on a road trip after 8 straight home games the last of which was a bad loss to Atlanta. Denver has struggled losing 19 of 24 vs winning teams. Rested home favorites that covered by 10+ points as a road dog and scored 110 or more are cashing 75% long term vs a team that lost and failed to cover, despite scoring 100 or more as a home dog. Look for Boston to take this one.
Heath Mac
Phoenix at Cleveland
Play: Under 211
This game looks like a blow out win to the Cavs, but the Cavs own just the 17th ranked offense putting up 101.3 ppg. The Suns meanwhile have been crippled with injuries to their two leading scorers in Bledsoe and Knight and have struggled to put up competitive totals, averaging just over 95 ppg in their last 10 games. The Suns have topped 100+ points only once in their last 5 games (against the 76ers).
The fact that the spread on this game is currently at 16.5 points would indicate we are unlikely to see free throws and clock stopping at the end of the game. The Suns are forced to play both Alex Len and Tyson Chandler at the moment for big minutes, which gives them two legitimate shot blockers and also 2 very good rebounders. The key to OVERs betting sits largely with three point shooting and the Suns have very little, hitting 6 or less in 3 of their last 5 games. With the Suns struggling to put up points and the Cavs being a very solid defensive unit, this one goes UNDER.
The total has gone UNDER in 11 of Phoenix's last 13 games when playing Cleveland. The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Phoenix's last 5 games when playing on the road against Cleveland. Cleveland has allowed the third fewest points in the league at 96.0 per game.
Scott Spreitzer
St. Louis vs. Dayton
Play: Over 137½
After losing 72-56 to VCU on January 10, SLU had lost nine of 11 games and they flat-out stunk on the offensive end. Their was truly no light at the end of the tunnel, playing their typical deliberate brand of basketball. Jim Crews decided to loosen the reigns and allow his team to play a much quicker brand of basketball and the Billikens have actually won two of their last four games, including two straight. They have scored an average of 83 ppg over their last four outings, while allowing 84 ppg. And after struggling with their accuracy when playing a slow tempo, SLU has connected on 64 of 122, 52% of their FGA over the last two games, combined. Their biggest issue now is their play on the defensive end, still leaving a lot to be desired. Dayton enters having made 46% of their FGA on the season, while averaging nearly 75 ppg. Their numbers are even better at home where they have nailed virtually half of their shots. SLU enters on a 4-0 Over run after Crews loosened the screws, and we expect another higher scoring game tonight.
Will Rogers
California vs. Utah
Play: Utah -4½
The California Golden Bears will be on the road at Utah on Wednesday. Both teams are 4-3 in conference play, and the Utes are just a slight favorite at home in this contest. The Utes beat California by a score of 76-61 in Utah last season, and I think the home team will prevail once again.
Here are my keys to the game:
1. Previous History - The Utes have won four of their last five overall, and they've won three of their last four versus California. They've scored a ton of points at home, averaging 85.1 points on 50.8 percent shooting while winning nine of 10.
2. Home Cookin' - The Utes are 22-4 ATS in their last 26 home games vs. a team with a losing road record, while Cal is 2-5 ATS in it's last seven road games.
3. X-Factor - The Bears will be without senior PG Tyrone Wallace, who is sidelined with a hand injury.
Jim Feist
Mavs vs. Warriors
Play: Under 215
Dallas can play defense, No. 16 in the NBA in points allowed, No. 15 in field goal shooting defense. Dallas is 7-1 under the total on the road and 12-4-1 under against the Western Conference. It's the second of a back to back road spot, so they won't want to run, and run into a dominant Golden State defense ranked No. 2 in the NBA in points and field goal shooting defense allowed. They just held San Antonio to 90 points in a blowout win. Golden State is 50-21-1 under the total against the NBA Southwest division. And when these teams clash the under is 8-3, including 4-1 under in this building.
Big Al
Philadelphia vs. Washington
Pick: Over
The feeling that the DC area has had after being slammed by blizzard Jonas, forcing the postponement of many events, including the Caps weekend games, is the same feeling that most opposing teams have had all season when facing the Caps on the ice. DC's hockey team's start is tied for the best ever for an NHL team in its first 46 games (35 wins) and the Caps show no sign of slowing down any time soon. Their overall scoring rate of 3.33 goals per game is impressive enough, but consider the fact that that number goes up to 3.45 when the Caps play here at Verizon Center, and you begin to understand what the Flyers are up against tonight. These two teams played four times last season, and all four of those went under the total, but that changed dramatically in their first meeting of this season back in mid-November when seven total goals were scored in Philadelphia. Goaltender Michal Neuvirth returns to Washington, the place he called home for the first four+ seasons of his NHL career and unfortunately for him, Neuvirth must face a much more potent offense than the one he backed up for much of 2009-2014. The over is 3-0-1 in the Caps' last four home games.
Power Sports
Oklahoma City vs. Minnesota
Pick: Minnesota
We saw two teams (Orlando, Sacramento) that were coming off overtime games lose last night and while the situation is a little different w/ OKC here (they won), being asked to lay this many points w/o any rest and having played five extra minutes certainly does them no favors. I'd lean towards taking the points here.
The Thunder have not been a strong team at the pay window this season, in fact they currently own the second worst ATS record in the league at 18-28-1 (tied w/ Phoenix) and that includes a money-burning 5-15-1 on the road. They're 0 for 3 against the spread on the current road trip, which ends tonight in Minnesota where they failed to cover two weeks ago, winning only 101-96 as 10.5-pt chalk. (I had the T'wolves in that one). While the spread isn't quite as high this time, OKC must deal w/ the disadvantage of having been taken to OT last night in New York where they ended up allowing 122 points despite not facing Carmelo Anthony. Kevin Durant (season-high 44 pts) and Russell Westbrook combined to score 74, which is basically the "script" most Thunder wins have followed this season.
Minnesota, meanwhile, has had its issues covering the spread here at home. They're 6-17-1 ATS for the season at the Target Center, but that does include three straight covers, so we're starting to see some good old fashioned regression towards the mean. After beating Memphis outright their last time here, the T'wolves were then able to stay within a generous number Monday night in Cleveland, losing by only seven. Having averaged 106.5 PPG the L2 games, look for them to take advantage of the fact that OKC allows 104.4 PPG on the road.
Soccer Authority
Cope Del Rey: Barcelona -v- Athletic Bilbao
Play Over 3.5
Barcelona carry a one goal lead into this 2nd leg Copa Del Rey Quarter Final after the first leg ended in a 2-1 victory to La Blaugrana
Barcelona have a fantastic record against Bilbao especially at home, Barca are unbeaten in the Camp Nou in their last 17 meetings. Bilbao last beat Barca at the Camp Nou back in November 2001.
Team News: Messi and Suarez will return to the squad after missing Barca's last game, Busquets, Alba and Arda Turan are all doubts for the game, Neymar may also be rested despite Luis Enrique saying he was 100% fit.
Bilbao will be almost at Full Strength with Iker Muniain returning to full fitness after playing 70+ minutes at the weekend
Key Points:
Bilbao have scored at least once in all their previous 9 Copa Del Rey Games
Bilbao have scored against Barca in 5 of their last 7 meetings
Barca have conceded in 5 of their last 7 Copa Del Rey home games
Ter Stegen will start in Goal for Barca tonight, When he starts Barca concede on average 1.75 Goals per game (La Liga this season). Also including this season and last 100% of games involving Ter Stegen have had Over 2.5 Total Goals. (Again these stats are for the League only)
Barcelona's next League game is against Atletico Madrid, for this reason we may see some rotation in the starting XI
Verdict:
Bilbao will come at Barcelona with everything they have and should be confident of at least finding the net once. With Ter Stegen in Goal for Barca and Sergio Busquets possible out we can't look past Bilbao scoring at least once in an open game that see's goals at either end. Expect Goals and take Over 3.5 Total Goals before the price shortens
Alex Smart
Mavericks vs. Warriors
Play: Warriors -16
In most cases laying this many points with NBA sides, is long term suicide, but from a short term perspective, we actually have value laying points with a revenge minded champions in this spot. Add to that the Dubs are no ordinary team, and recently just crushed San Antonio by 30 points, and two of the Easts best teams Chicago by 31 and Cleveland by 34. What sets this lay the DD points scenario, down, is back on Dec 30th, Dallas dismantled and humiliated Golden State at home in the American Airlines Center by a stinging 114-91 count. Very few teams over the last couple of seasons, have spanked the Warriors like that and now its revenge time in Oakland in the rematch.
This is Golden States third straight home game, while the Mavericks are off playing last night against the Lakers, and on tired legs as they play their third straight road tilt. Like I said, above I am not always comfortable laying this many points in the NBA, but spot situations do occur and present themselves, and this is one of them, all be it though via a more conservative wager
Golden State is 9-1 ATS L/10 off back to back home wins of 10 points or more with the average margin of victory ringing in at 17.9 ppg
Dave Essler
Arkansas +3.5
I doubt they can possibly play as poorly as they did when we had them against Kentucky - and I am betting on them for many of the same reasons I did against the Wildcats. This is a team that beat Vanderbilt and took Dayton to overtime on the road. Yes, they've lost three straight, by two at LSU and in OT at UGA - sandwiched around the aforementioned Kentucky game. The point is that they're probably not playing as badly as their W/L record might indicate. They've played the third toughest conference schedule to date (while A & M has played the worst SEC schedule). Arkansas was totally humiliated at A & M earlier this season, so there's that. A & M is a great team - but not one that finds itself in this spotlight often and is looking at a non-conference game against Iowa State Saturday then a game at Vanderbilt, so we'll see who the real Aggies are, starting tonight. One troubling thing about the Aggies is their 64% FT shooting, which as most know is something I have a hard time getting behind. They're winning with defense, which does travel, but the Hogs have been very good at protecting the ball and are shooting 45% in SEC play from behind the arc. The Aggies shot 11-26 from deep in the earlier pasting they gave the Hogs - that should regress for any number of reasons. They (Arkansas) let Jalen Jones completely go off - so I would expect Anderson to force someone else to beat them. Tyler Davis (Aggies starting center) didn't play against Missouri due to a foot injury, so he could be out/less than 100% - but I have looked at the game as if he is playing, so bonus if not - and without him they actually struggled a bit to beat Missouri. I'm putting the Aggies on potential upset alert.
Jeff Saad
Clippers at Hawks
Play: Under
A pair of talented defensive teams meet -- and a high total. The Clippers wrap up a five-game road trip here and the second of a back to back road spot, so they won't want to run. The Under is 7-2 in the Clippers last 9 games playing on no days rest. Atlanta is No. 8 in the NBA in points allowed and No. 10 in field goal shooting defense, on a 5-1 run under the total.
Mr. Vegas
Nashville at Calgary
Play: Calgary
A tough situational spot for Nashville, the second of a back to back road spot while playing its 11th road game over the last 14 contests. Nashville has a losing road record and the Predators are 16-35 in their last 51 games playing on no days rest. Calgary is 13th in the NHL in goals scored and on a 13-4 run at home.
Sleepyj
Murray St./Eastern Kentucky Over 150
I'll grab the over in this one tonight..My line was 156.5...So i find value in the over here..Some of my totals have been off, but everything i see right now says the over has a good shot here..E. Kentucky is one of the higher scoring offenses in all of CBB..They also stink on defense as they rank 332nd in the nation..Both teams rebound poor, so we can get some 2nd chance points here and points in the paint as well....I also like the fact that we have a good assisting team with E. Kent..Murray St is the better of the two defenses by far, but the assisting can help keep the E. Kent team getting high % shots...We also have two teams that are very good from the charity stripe..We need those free baskets in a game like this..E. Kentucky will control the pace here at home, so i see no reason Murray won't run with them...Most might not see it, but this will be one of the better games tonight..I will play the over as my numbers suggest this line is wrong.