John Fisher
Purdue at Minnesota
Play: Purdue -14
The last time Purdue lost to Iowa they bounced back with a vengeance versus the Wolverines by 17. This time they try to bounce bounce away from Home but against an awful Minnesota team who just does not have the players to compete in this game. When a team like Minnesota losses 9 games in a row it's difficult not seeing them get crushed here versus an angry Purdue team. This line begs to pick Minnesota at Home as DD Dogs but I see Purdue up by 11 at half and then getting up by 24 points before they call off the dogs and win by 17 to 18 points.
Matt Fargo
Georgia Tech at North Carolina St
Pick: Georgia Tech
After a big upset at Pittsburgh to pick up its first conference win, NC State could not carry that momentum into Saturday at home against Duke as it stayed close for the majority of the game until the Blue Devils pulled away late. The Wolfpack are now 1-6 in the ACC which is a huge disappointment as they were picked to finish in the top half of the conference following a solid 22-14 season last year. The three home conference losses have come against Duke, Louisville and Florida St. and now they finally get to face a bottom tier team as they welcome Georgia Tech but they may do so without their top player Anthony Barber who injured his knee in the Duke game and is questionable so he is not close to 100 percent. The Yellow Jackets are 1-5 in the ACC with the lone victory being a shocking upset against Virginia and while they have also struggled, they have lost their ACC games by 4, 1, 8, 5 and 8 points and against much better opposition that they are facing tonight. The Wolfpack are 1-5 ATS in their last six home games while the Yellow Jackets are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games following a straight up loss.
Wunderdog
Oklahoma City @ Minnesota
Pick: Oklahoma City -7
Oklahoma City has beaten Minnesota nine times in a row, including 113-93 on Jan. 15 when the Thunder shot 52.8 percent from the field and held the Timberwolves to just 40.0 percent. The Thunder had six players score in double figures led by Kevin Durant with 21 points. Minnesota continues to be a terrible home team with a 7-17 record at the Target Center. The Thunder has won eight of its last nine games after a 128-122 overtime win at New York last night. Durant scored 44 points and Russell Westbrook added 30 points and 10 assists and the Thunder was 11-of-20 from beyond the arc. The Timberwolves lost at Cleveland on Monday 114-107 with Karl Anthony-Towns scoring 26 points but it wasn't enough to counter the Cavaliers' .506 field goal percentage. Minnesota is 2-8-1 ATS after scoring 100-plus points and the Thunder is 4-1 ATS with no rest. Also, the Wolves are 19-41 ATS at home dating to last season.
SPORTS WAGERS
Philadelphia +192 over WASHINGTON
OT included. Despite losing three in a row, the Flyers continue to play well. All three losses were by one goal and the last time they lost by more than one goal was 11 games ago on December 30 in San Jose. The Flyers have picked up points in 11 of their past 16 games and although they’re eight points out of a Wild Card spot, they have at least two games in hand on the teams above them and four games in hand on four of them. During the past month, few teams have created more opportunities to score than Philadelphia but the puck has not been going in. Still, in the 18 games from the day after Thanksgiving through to the January 9 win over NYI, the Flyers reached the four-goal mark eight times and didn’t go more than three consecutive games without a four-goal night. We’re merely pointing out how dangerous this team can be and how worthy they are taking back a price in this range. We also like that Michal Neuvirth gets this start for Philly, as he has never faced Washington. Neuvirth was drafted by the Caps in the second round in 2006 and appeared in 134 games for them over six seasons. We know for sure he’ll be jacked up and so will his teammates.
Washington has won 12 consecutive games at Verizon Center, marking the longest home winning streak in the NHL this season and the Capitals longest home winning streak since they won a franchise-record 13 consecutive games during the 2009-10 season. We are not going to suggest for a second that the Caps are weak. They are a beast of a team that is 24 games over .500. However, situational betting is a key criterion we employ and we just might catch the Capitals in an extremely vulnerable spot here. The Caps were scheduled to play on Sunday in Pittsburgh on NBC on Championship Sunday in the NFL. It was a Crosby/Ovi showdown that the media was building up. It was supposed to be a 1:00 PM start ahead of the two NFL games but Mother Nature said no. Now the Caps have been off for eight days, which is an incredibly long time. What makes that layoff even more difficult is that the All-Star break begins tomorrow. Not only is it difficult to play once in eight days but the Capitals may have already checked out for the break with such a comfortable lead in the Metro. We saw a similar example of a first place team checking out before the break last night, when the Blackhawks showed up in body only in Carolina and got whacked, 5-0. If indeed Washington has checked out, this ticket will cash. If the Caps haven’t checked out and play their usual strong game, this ticket can still cash. The risk is worth the reward.
SPORTS WAGERS
Saint Louis +17 over DAYTON
Dayton is 16-3 overall and they’re 6-1 in the A-10 but they are not built to blow out teams. The Flyers do have some blowout victories but all quality outfits do. We want to pay more attention to the Billikens here and we also want to pay attention to the Flyers close calls. Three of Dayton’s last four home games were decided by six, seven and four points respectively against GW, Davidson and Arkansas with the latter occurring in OT. The Flyers have a one-point win over Miami (Ohio), a three-point win over Monmouth and another three-point win over William & Mary. The Flyers also have a home loss to Chattanooga and a four-point loss on the road to La Salle.
Once again Dayton made some noise in March of last year. The Flyers knocked off Boise State in the First Four and followed it up with a nice win over Providence before falling in a hard fought game to #3 seed Oklahoma. Coach Archie Miller has another good team, but he lost his best player to graduation and he has had to fill other holes as well. Miller is still trying to develop some consistency in the frontcourt. The Flyers are not a top-5 A-10 team in many key categories and they rank 9th in the conference in scoring.
The Billikens used to be a A-10 power but they have fallen completely off the map over the past two seasons. However, Saint Louis is showing signs of being relevant again and while it will not happen this season, they are primed to at least be competitive the rest of the way. At times last season, the Billikens offense seemed at a standstill, struggling to generate shots and ultimately points. Coach Jim Crews has worked diligently to find a solution by adjusting the system and trading structure for freedom in a motion offense that by all accounts is starting to pay dividends. After losing 13 of 15 games, the Billikens are coming off back-to-back victories over Davidson and UMass while racking up 96 and 86 points respectively. We cannot overstate what one or two victories does to a teams’ psyche. This is a Billikens team that is now 3-4 in the conference with their other victory occurring against a very decent GW program. The Billikens are a long way from mastering the motion offense but they have a different feel about them after those two aforementioned wins. Last season with a lost team, Saint Louis lost twice to the Flyers by 16 and seven points respectively. This year they’re better and right now the Billikens are filling it up offensively. The market has not made adjustments to the Billikens improvement and we'll attempt to cash in on it.
VA TECH +10 over Louisville
Virginia Tech has been frequently undervalued. Most recently, the Hokies took the top-ranked North Carolina Tar Heels to the brink as a 12½-point home pooch. The Hokies managed to draw level and keep the game close, despite UNC building an early lead, further showcasing that this host has the grit and determination to play with literally anyone in the country. The Hokies would achieve a similar feat against Notre Dame on the road, four days previous to their encounter with UNC. As a 12½-point dog, the Hokies would force Notre Dame to play a full game and while the Fighting Irish may not be a top-ranked squad, they are an impressive 14-5 on the year, the defending ACC Tournament Champion and coming in off an Elite Eight appearance at last year’s tournament.
Previous to those two aforementioned games, the Hokies would win outright at Georgia Tech when VT would close as a 7½-point hound. Now, here we are again, a team playing host to the #14 Louisville Cardinals and the market has little faith in the Hokies again. Well, we have little faith in the overpriced Cardinals. The Cardinals are 3-7 in their last 10 against the spread. In nine of those 10 games they were favorites, many of which they were favored by considerable margins. The Cards managed to cover as a 24-point favorite against UMKC, but so what. Rick Pitino loves blowouts and he schedules blowouts. The other two covers were against FSU and Pitt at home in back-to-back games in which Louisville was a -7 and -9½-point favorites respectively. Over that span, Louisville did not cover once on the road and they are 2-2 straight up on the road during this 10-game slate.
As road chalk, Louisville lost outright to Clemson as a 6½-point favorite. They also narrowly escaped Georgia Tech 75-71 when offered at an identical price and once again failed to cover against N.C. State when they were positioned in similar fashion, three days before the Clemson defeat. We aren’t going to flood you with statistics and rhetoric but the point is that the proof is in the pudding. Virginia Tech plays great teams tough and knows they can play with the very best for four quarters. Tonight, Va Tech will be back again on their home court, entering with heightened optimism in light of a tough loss. One has to figure that the Hokies are on the verge of that next step and that could come here against a falsely ranked visitor that has had great difficulty playing on the road against a quality outfit. Virginia Tech won’t be any more welcoming and neither will their rabid fans.
Larry Ness
Pittsburgh at Clemson
Prediction: Clemson
Clemson lost 80-69 at then-No. 7 North Carolina back on Dec 30, falling to 7-6. However, head coach Brad Brownell came away pleased with the effort. The Tigers followed with FIVE straight wins after losing to the tar Heels, including consecutive victories over ranked teams Louisville, Duke and Miami (Fla). "We had a chance to win (at North Carolina). Ever since then we felt really confident," said the 6-7 Jaron Blossomgame, the Tigers top scorer (16.4) and rebounder (6.9). "That's taken this team to where it is right now. The sky's the limit for this team." However, the Tigers run ended Jan 19 with a 69-62 loss at then-No.13 Virginia.
Jamie Dixon is in his 13th season at Pitt, leading the Panthers into the postseason each year, 10 of them into the “Big Dance.” However, last season was a big disappointment, with Pitt finishing just 19-15 (8-10 in the ACC), after a 1st-round NIT loss. Pitt has rebounded nicely this season at 16-3 (5-2 in the ACC), led by an excellent pair of forwards, the 6-9 Young (16.8-6.7) and the 6-7 Artis (16.1-4.5), along with senior PG Robinson (10.1-5.0 APG). However, Pitt will be tested here in Clemson, up against the well-rested Tigers (last played on Jan 19).
Getting back to Clemson, the 6-8 Grantham (10.3-3.9) joins Blossomgame up front, as well as a pair of 6-10 centers in Nnoko (8.9-5.8) and Djitte (5.2-5.9). Holmes (9.8) and Roper (9.2) start in the backcourt, with DeVoe (5.6) coming off the bench. Picked to finish 12th in the ACC in the preseason media poll, Clemson surprise again.
Jimmy Boyd
Timberwolves +7½
This is a great spot to back the Timberwolves as a decently priced home dog. Minnesota has won 2 straight at home and are coming in off a strong showing in Monday's 107-114 loss at Cleveland. I look for the Timberwolves to come out extremely motivated against a Thunder team they have lost twice to recently. Minnesota fell 96-101 at home to OKC on 1/12 and a few days laster got embarrassed in a 93-113 loss on the road.
The key thing here is this time they catch the Thunder in an awful spot. Oklahoma City will be playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back road set and last night's matchup against the Knicks went to overtime. All 5 starters for the Thunder logged at least 35 minutes with Ibaka, Durant, Westbrook and Waiters all playing 43 or more. OKC simply isn't going to have the legs to turn this into a blowout and I could easily see them not taking this game all that serious given they have just recently beat the Wolves twice.
Thunder are just 5-15 ATS in their last 20 road games (0-7 L7), 9-20 ATS in their last 29 after winning 8 or more of their last 10 games and 2-11 ATS in their last 13 road games after scoring 100+ points in 2 straight games.
Dave Price
Denver Nuggets +9.5
Oddsmakers are asking the Boston Celtics to win this game by double-digits to cover the spread, which is simply too much. The Denver Nuggets are no pushovers like this line would indicate. They are actually playing their best basketball of the season coming into this game. They have gone 4-4 SU & 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games overall. Three of the 4 losses came by 6 points or less as well to Memphis, Oklahoma City and Miami. They have upset the Warriors, Pacers, Pistons and Hornets during this stretch as well. In fact, the Nuggets have only lost one of their last 14 games by double-digits, so they have been extremely competitive over the last month.
Brandon Shively
Texas A&M vs. Arkansas
Play: Arkansas +3
The Aggies ran away with a 92-69 victory earlier this month against Arkansas on their home court. Since that win they have climbed to #5 in the national rankings. Arkansas on the other hand has lost three straight games, but two of those losses have been close games, losing by three in overtime at Georgia and by two at LSU. That sets the stage for tonight's game.
The home team is a PERFECT 6-0 SU in this series. Arkansas has a strong history of playing good basketball at home. So much, that while this is their third game of the season as a homedog, they have only been a homedog nine times in the last six years. They have won 25 of their past 30 SEC games and in my opinion, they have the best home court advantage in the SEC.
For Texas AM, this game is a huge trap for them and I am betting they fall into it. The Aggies are ranked 5th in the nation which is the highest ever for them. They are on a 10 game winning streak which is also their longest since the 2010-2011 season. Texas AM has a huge game that is being talked about coming up against Iowa State, who has beaten Oklahoma and Kansas in the recent weeks.
In true road games this season, the Aggies are 1-2-1 ATS. I feel like this is a spot where they overlook Arkansas and slip.
Arkansas is shooting 48.6% from the floor at home this year. A&M is only shooting 40.8%. While the Aggies have the better defense, I think in a game like this is comes down to home court and teams making shots. I think Arkansas gets the job done here. Take the Razorbacks to get the cover here.
Jack Jones
St. Joseph's -13.5
The St. Joseph's Hawks are arguably the best team in the Atlantic 10 this season. They have gone 16-3 SU & 13-4-1 ATS to make backers a ton of money as they've been undervalued all season. I don't believe they are laying enough points to an awful UMass squad tonight.
The Hawks have won 12 of their last 13 games overall with their only loss coming to VCU by 3. They are 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in their last five games with four straight blowout victories all by 14 points or more. Three of those even came on the road.
UMass is just 8-10 on the season in what is a rebuilding year for the Minutemen. They have really struggled in conference play, going 0-5 SU & 0-5 ATS in their last five games overall. They have lost all five games by 11 points or more despite playing three of those games at home.
The Minutemen are 1-9-1 ATS in their last 11 games vs. a team with a winning record. UMass is 1-9-1 ATS in its last 11 vs. Atlantic 10 opponents. The Minutemen are 0-8 ATS in their last eight games following a loss. The Hawks are 13-2-1 ATS in their last 16 games overall.
Brandon Lee
Virginia Tech +10
I like the value we are getting here with the Hokies as a double-digit home dog against the Cardinals. While Virginia Tech comes in off 2 straight losses, they played extremely well in both defeats, losing by just 2-poitns at Notre Dame and 5-points at home to North Carolina. Prior to that we saw the Hokies roll off 4 wins in 5 games. Virginia Tech is without a doubt playing their best basketball and should be able to keep it close enough to cover and potentially pull off the upset. Louisville is a great team don't get me wrong, but are not as good on the road. They only won 75-71 at Georgia Tech and 77-72 at NC State, while losing 62-66 at Clemson in their 3 conference road games so far.
Scott Rickenbach
Boise State vs. UNLV
Play: Under 149
I don't normally put too much weight into "day of the week" trends but some of them are too strong to ignore and so that's where I start with this one. The under is a tremendous 14-2 in Boise State Wednesday games the last 3 seasons combined. The under is also a perfect 6-0 in UNLV Wednesday games this season. This total has been jumping up ever since a number got posted on it and I believe the under is worth a look here. The last time these teams met they totaled just 101 points! While I don't expect a total that low tonight I do expect the Rebels to struggle to shoot well and they tend to live and die with the 3 ball and, overall, with their perimeter shooting whether inside the arc or out. They are facing the top team in the MWC and that spells trouble for the UNLV offense tonight. The Rebels last 8 wins have seen them hold their opponent to 69 points or less 7 of the 8 games. They know they can't afford to get into a shootout with the top team in the conference so I look for UNLV to try and slow down the pace some in this one or to at least be forced into slowing down the pace. Boise is 6-2 to the under when they are off of a game where they scored 80 points or more. The Broncos are also 8-3 to the under in their games against teams with a winning record. Versus teams averaging 77 points or more this season the under is 6-3 in UNLV games this season so don't be surprised to see this one turn into enough of a dogfight to keep it under the big total.
David Banks
Houston Rockets @ San Antonio Spurs
Pick: San Antonio Spurs-10
The slumping Houston Rockets travel to Southwest Division leader San Antonio for a third meeting between the two division foes. The Rockets lost three of four between Jan. 15 and 20 and dropped their last meeting with the Spurs, on Jan. 2, 121-103. Houston will have to play much better on the defensive end this time around if they are to have any chance at defeating San Antonio, which holds the NBA’s second-best record at 38-6.
In the first meeting between the two teams back on Christmas Day, the Rockets played their best defense of the season holding San Antonio to a season-low 84 points in an 88-84 Houston win. The Rockets have won 18 games in a row when holding teams to under 90 points. Can they do it again in San Antonio?
The Spurs have won 13 in a row (prior to a Jan. 25 showdown with Western Conference and NBA leader Golden State) and have not lost at home all year. Veteran Tim Duncan will miss the game with the Warriors and may be unavailable Wednesday night. While point guard Tony Parker runs the offense, it is the Spurs frontcourt that gives opponents headaches. Kawhi Leonard leads San Antonio averaging 20 points a game and LaMarcus Aldridge adds 15.9 points and a team-leading 8.9 rebounds. Houston will have to defend and rebound well if they are to beat the Spurs at home.
GoodFella
Golden St -10.5 1st Half
I fully expect a very motivated Warriors club to come out focused and with max effort this evening. This is a payback game for their loss to these Mavs who have handed them 1 of their 4 losses this season. Dallas will also be w/out Dirk and Zaza this evening, which certainly does not help their cause vs this Warriors club tonight. I'm all over Golden St. jumping all over these Mavs in this spot tonight & will lay the -10.5 for the 1st half here.
Jeff Benton
Your Wednesday freebie is Philly plus the double-digits at Detroit.
The 76ers will not be confused with a playoff team this season, but they are fresh off their third outright win in their last five games last night at home against Phoenix, and the Sixers are on a 6-1 spread run their last 7 games played.
The Pistons are just 3-5 straight up their last 8 games, and they do have a big Friday night home game up next against the Cleveland Cavaliers.
I can see the Pistons looking ahead towards Friday tonight, and allowing the Sixers to stay inside of this double-digit impost.
Philly has won and covered 4 of the last 6 series meetings against Detroit.
Take the points.
3* PHILADELPHIA