VEGAS EXPERTS
Utah Jazz at Portland Trail Blazers
Portland is extremely banged up right now, which is why you find them as the home underdog. Either that or the Jazz are just playing that well right now. They've scored 105+ points in five straight games and have ripped off an 8-0-2 ATS run the last 10 games. They are 14-3 ATS after scoring 105 or more points their previous game this season. This is the perfect time to snap a four-game SU/ATS losing skid in the Rose Garden.
Play on: Utah
LT Profits
TCU @ Colorado State
Neither the TCU Horned Grogs nor the Colorado State Rams have been lighting up the scoreboard lately, and we do not expect much to change in Fort Collins tonight.
If we throw out a non-lined game vs. Texas-Pan American, TCU is averaging juts 61.8 points in their last five games vs. Division I foes, which is only slightly worse than their season road average of 63.1 points. The Horned Frogs have played just two road games since New Years Day, and those games have produced just 110 and 129 points respectively.
TCU has been sloppy with the basketball, turning the ball over on 21.2 percent of their possessions according to Pomeroy, which ranks 192 in the country. Granted, they have a nice effective field goal percentage of 51.5 percent overall thanks to an excellent 52.3 percent success rate on two-point shots, but their offense slips noticeably on the road compared to at home,
Speaking of turning the ball over, the home standing Rams do so on 22.6 of their possessions, which ranks 259 out of 347 Division I schools. Furthermore, Colorado State is not a good inside shooting team, hitting on only 45.2 percent of their two-point attempts, which ranks 247 in the land. The only reason the Rams average 74.1 points at home is their 36.3 percent three-point shooting, but TCU ranks 78 in the country in three-point defenses at only 31.8 percent.
Finally, the Colorado State offense has slipped to 67.2 points per game over the last five games, and when we add that to the TCU five-game average, we get a projected total of 129 points here, four full points less than this posted total.
Pick: TCU/Colorado State Under 133
Tom Stryker
TEXAS (-) over Texas Tech
Off a pair of straight up losses to Kansas State and Connecticut and six consecutive pointspread blemishes, it might look difficult to lay all of this lumber with Texas on Wednesday night. Fortunately, the Longhorns have been at their best as a double-digit conference favorite posting a reliable 20-12-1 ATS record provided they check in off a straight up loss. Rest assured, the former No. 1 team in the land will be primed to make a statement here.
Off back-to-back SU and ATS wins over Iowa State and Oklahoma, this is the perfect time to fade Texas Tech too. As a road or neutral underdog priced at +6' or more and off back-to-back straight up wins, the Red Raiders are a pathetic 5-24 SU and 10-19 ATS. Even worse, in this series, TTRR has been whipped thoroughly posting a shocking 4-25 SU and 6-22-1 ATS mark in the last 29 meetings including a stunning 0-10 SU and 0-9-1 ATS in this role provided the Longhorns arrive off a straight up loss.
One thing Texas has done well is play well at home coming off two or more road games. In this specific set, the Longhorns are a powerful 28-5 SU and 19-11-2 ATS including a sizzling 15-4 SU and 14-3-1 ATS provided their opponent checks in off a straight up win.
UT played two good teams in KSU and UConn and the 'Horns lost both. Texas Tech is a step down in class from those two programs and the Longhorns will be able to dominate here. Take Texas.
Jeff Alexander
1 Unit on Bulls/Thunder UNDER 195
Right away you have to like the Under here when you consider that OKC is 11-2 Under in home games where the total is between 195 and 199.5 points over the last 2 seasons, and we are only seeing an average of 188.1 points in these games. Plus, the Thunder have played to the Under in 4 of their last 5 games and the Bulls are 13-8 to the Under on the road this season. The Thunder are also 20-8 Under in home games versus teams who are called for 21 or less fouls/game over the last 2 seasons, and we are only seeing an average of 191.2 points scored in these games. In other words, we don't expect many points to be scored at the free throw line with the clock stopped tonight. Bet the Under.
SPORTS WAGERS
Calgary +1.00 over DALLAS
Perhaps the best cure for these Flames is a couple of road games to get away from the fans and media. Frankly, it’s mind-boggling how this team, with all that talent, can lose seven in a row and nine of 10. The funny thing is that its only win over that stretch came against the Canucks in Vancouver, one of the toughest places in the league to win at. Anyway, the Flames really couldn’t have asked for a better opponent to snap that ugly streak than the one they’ll face here. The Stars return home tonight from a brief but difficult three-game trip through Vancouver, Edmonton and Colorado. Dallas has been very tough at home with 14 wins in 20 games but they just do not look that sharp these days. Besides, the Flames have been much better on the road and this is a game they just have to approach with a huge sense of urgency. The Flames are sitting out of a playoff spot right now and they need wins. Win or lose, expect a big time effort out of the Flames tonight and it’s also comforting to know that Marty Turco is not having a good year at all. Play: Calgary +1.00 (Risking 2 units).
Anaheim +2.19 over WASHINGTON
The Caps are destroying everyone these days and they look like they can’t be beat. They’re scoring five, six or seven goals almost nightly and they’re having an absolute ball out there. The Caps have won seven in a row and 10 of 11 and again, they appear to be unstoppable. Having said that, this is a game they could take a breather in. No team will sustain that intensity level for long stretches and there is a letdown spot on the way soon. They played last night in Long Island and will be home for the next three games. Surely, there is no sense of urgency surrounding them for this one. Furthermore, the Ducks can be as tough to beat as anyone. They played a very good game in Atlanta last night but ran into a hot goaltender. Despite that loss they’re still very warm at the moment and they’re playing every game these days with a sense of urgency. The Caps rarely see the Ducks and in fact, this is the first time they’ll play at the Verizon Center in about four years. The Caps may win here and they may win easy again, however, they will take a night off very soon and with this tag on this hungry and talented guest, this is as good a spot as any to play against the Caps. Play: Anaheim +2.19 (Risking 2 units).
St. Louis +2.06 over VANCOUVER
Upsets happen all the time in all sports and it’s not because of the talent, it’s because of a difficult or beatable spot that the chalk is in and this is as good as any to go against the Canucks. You see, Vancouver has reeled off five wins in a row and that includes a 5-1 romp over Chicago on Saturday night. They followed that up with a 3-2 win over the Sabres on Monday and will now close out its home stand here. They’ll head straight to Toronto for a game Saturday night on CBC’s Hockey Night in Canada. The Canucks will play eight straight on the road right up until the Olympic break (it’s actually 14 straight on the road, as they have six more after the break) so you know this upcoming trip is absolutely something that has to be on their minds. After Toronto they’ll play in Montreal, Ottawa and Boston among others. The Canucks are still without three of its top d-men and this is just the perfect setting for an upset, as the Canucks are another team that’s not desperate for wins. They should be beatable tonight and with this tag on the very determined Blues, they, too, are worthy of some strong consideration. Play: St. Louis +2.06 (Risking 2 units).
Tom Freese
Illinois State at Witchita State
Prediction: Illinois State
Illinois State is 14-6 overall and 5-4 in Conference Play. Osiris Eldridge leads the team in scoring with 17.3 points a night. Dinma Odiakosa scores 11.6 points a game. Guard Lloyd Phillips scores 10.4 points a night. No Other player scores than 7.5 points a game. The Redbirds score 71.9 points a game and they are 7-3 ATS their last 10 games and they are 7-1 ATS as road dogs of 7 to 12.5 points. Illinois St is 7-1 ATS their last 8 games with the Shockers. Wichita St is 17-4 overall and 6-3 in Conference Play. Osiris Eldridge leads the team in scoring with 17.3 points a game. Dinma Odiakosa scores 11.6 points a night. Guard Lloyd Phillips scores 10.4 points night. No other player scores more than 7.5 points a game. The Redbirds score 71.9 points a game and they are 7-3 ATS their last 10 games and they are 7-1 ATS their last 8 games as road underdogs of 7.0 to 12.5 points a game. The Redbirds are 7-1 ATS their last 8 meetings with the Shockers. PLAY ON ILLINOIS ST +
Larry Ness
Florida State @ Duke
PICK: Duke -12.5
The 8th-ranked Blue Devils are back at Cameron Indoor Stadium after splitting a pair of road games last week. They lost 88-74 last Wednesday at Raleigh to North Carolina State but then won 60-47 at then-No. 17 Clemson on Saturday. The 88 points allowed vs NC St was a season-high but in limiting the Tigers to 47 points (second-lowest total allowed TY), the Dookies held the Tigers to just 37.5 percent from the floor. In Scheyer (18.6-3.4-5.7) and Smith (18.5-2.4-3.1) the Blue Devils own one of the nation's best backcourts. The 6-8 Singler (15.8-7.3) is now a junior and one of the most polished players around. The 6-10 Plumlee brothers, sophomore Miles (7.4-6.5) and freshman Mason (5.3-3.6) plus the 7-1 Zoubek (5.4-6.8) give the Blue Devils a group of solid if not spectacular big men. Duke has won 13 straight at home, including an 11-0 SU (7-3 ATS) mark this season, outscoring opponents 91.7-to-61.5 PPG. The 15-4 Seminoles are no "push over," as they are one of just four visiting teams to have won at Cameron over the past four seasons. FSU is allowing opponents just 60.2 PPG and 35.5 percent on FG attempts, which is lowest in the entire nation. The do-everything Toney Douglas (21.5-3.9-2.9), who was the team's only double digit scorer on last year's 25-10 team, is gone. However, this year's team owns much better balance. The 7-1 Alabi (12.6-6.9), the 6-9 Singleton (11.1-7.5) and guard Dulkys (10.5) are all topping double digits in points, while six other players average between 13.5 and 27.2 MPG, as well as 3.1 and 8.7 PPG. That being said, Duke won all three of its meetings against the Seminoles last season. Note that while the Seminoles did win 66-59 (OT) at Ga Tech back on Dec 20, FSU has played away from home just once since that time (a 77-68 loss at Maryland on Jan 10). Note that earlier this year, FSU lost at Florida 68-52 and Ohio St 77-64, so I hardly expect them to break Duke's current home winning streak tonight. Lay the points.
Insider Angles
Nebraska Cornhuskers road games this season are averaging nearly 20 points less than this posted total while the Colorado Buffaloes play much better defense at home than on the road, so do not look for the scoreboard operator to be kept busy here.
The Cornhuskers are 12-7 overall, but they are just 1-4 in their true road games, mainly because their offense has been pathetic away from home, averaging a pitiful 54.6 points on 41.9 percent shooting. However, the Nebraska defense has done its part regardless of the venue, allowing 63.6 points per game on the road for a combined road average of just 118.2 points
The Huskers have a good adjusted defensive efficiency rating of .950 points per possession according to Pomeroy, and they are forcing turnovers on 24.1 percent of possessions, ranking 32 in the nation in that category.
Meanwhile, the Buffaloes are 9-1 at home, and while their offense has been consistent home and away, they have played much better defense here in the altitude, where they are allowing 66.8 points per game on 42.1 percent shooting. They should have no trouble containing a Nebraska offense here that at times has had trouble putting the ball in the ocean on the road this year.
Thus, we look for a lower scoring game here than some people think.
Pick: Nebraska/Colorado Under 137.5
Dave Price
1 Unit on Houston Rockets -1
The Nuggets are only 1-7-1 ATS in their last 9 road games and I expect this trend to continue as they meet a very hungry Houston team off back-to-back home losses tonight. The Rockets are a perfect 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS at home against Denver the last 3 seasons. It is also important to note that the Nuggets are 0-5-2 ATS in their last 7 games following an ATS win. While Denver has been playing well, notice that 6 of its 7 straight wins have come at home. Expect a different story out on the road tonight against a hungry team that has had the Nuggets' number. Take Houston.
GoodFella
SAN -3 vs ATL
San Antonio has lost three straight HOME games coming into tonights game with the Hawks- & this is game #4 of a 6 game home stand & they have yet to win a game: losses to Utah and Houston last week and then a 5 pt loss to the Bulls on Monday. Atlanta is coming off a nice Road win AT Houston on Monday- & they are (6-1 SU L/7) games coming into tonight-- but I still dont completely trust this team on the ROAD- especially off that WIN at Houston--as I dont think they will SWEEP the 2 game roadie their on- & the Hawks do HOST division RIVAL Boston on Friday Night I think the Spurs will be definitely be the more MOTIVATED team tonight. Atlanta is only 1-7-1 ATS in their last nine trips to San Antonio & the Hawks are also just (2-6 ATS L/8) games as an underdog of 0.5 to 4.5 points. This is the 1st meeting between these two clubs this season- & the Spurs won both meetings last year- including a 95-89 win at HOME as 6.5 pt favs. The Spurs are a ugly (1-5 SU & ATS L/6) games coming into tonight--but I do like them in this spot tonight--as they are desperate to get a HOME WIN tonight. Lay the short number with the Spurs tonight guys.
Nelly
LA Clippers - over New Jersey
This will look like a tough travel spot for the Clippers, facing a fourth straight road game and playing clear across the country but this should be a motivated team that has been playing well. The Clippers are 5-1 ATS in the past six games and the favorite has covered in nine of the past 13 meetings in this series. The Nets continue to lose at a record pace, having won once in the last 22 games and scarcely covering. This is a bad situation for the Nets as seven of the last nine games have been on the road and the Nets have had several days off before this game. The last four home games have all been lopsided losses, even against mediocre teams and the Clippers have had success in higher scoring games which this game should be with the Nets allowing 114 points per game in the past five contests. With Devin Harris out for this game and Courtney Lee also banged up this is not a Nets team that can realistically compete against a formidable Clippers lineup. Eric Gordon is expected to be back for this game but even without him the Clippers have a veteran lineup that should be capable of staying in the Western Conference playoff chase. Few realize the success the Clippers are having while the dismal ATS numbers for the Nets continue to pile up even with inflated spreads.
Drew Gordon
LA Lakers at INDIANA +6
46-28-3 roll L77 Free Plays (14-5 L19), including South Carolina outright over Kentucky 68-62 last night! For tonight's complimentary play, we're looking at the Lakers/Pacers match up.
Bettors were targetting the Lakers/Wizards game last night, looking for an LA letdown that never came, winning 115-103. However, what they failed to realize was they should've waited one more night, catching the Lake Show on the tail-end of a back-to-back against a Pacers team who's played them well in the past.
Speaking of this series, has anyone else noticed the Pacers have lost by a combined 3 points in their L2 meetings with the Lakers?! Granger led the way in both those games last season (averaging 30 ppg), as Indiana's free-wheeling style has proven effective against Kobe and company. Not only that, but for one reason or another, Troy Murphy usually brings his "A" game against Pau Gasol, and I expect more of the same tonight.
Finally, there's a couple trends worth mentioning, including the fact the Pacers are 6-0 ATS in their L6 games with 1 day of rest, while the Lakers are 5-6 ATS with no rest on the season. Also, Indiana is not only 7-3 ATS over L10 games, but also 5-1 ATS in their L6 vs an opponent with a .600 winning percentage or better... Translation: Pacers have stepped UP to the level of their competition when facing superior foes, and have rewarded their backers along the way! In the end, look for another competitive match up in this series, as the home dog delivers Wednesday!
Take Indiana plus the points over the LA Lakers in this NBA match up.
3♦ INDIANA
Florida State at DUKE -12'
Interesting contest here, and one where history buffs are going to get burned. What I mean is, I see a lot of bettors relying on the Seminoles excellent past record ATS (9-3 L12 meetings) as proof positive that FSU will keep it inside the number tonight. Sorry Seminoles-backers, but this match up is different, and here's why:
The key to the Seminoles success over the last couple years was phenomenal guard play from Toney Douglas, a one-man wrecking crew vs the Blue Devils. However, Douglas now plays for the Knicks, and the 'Noles have becomes a totally different team this season. For better or worse, FSU is now a frontcourt-based offense, led by 7-footer Alabi and 6'9 Singleton. Against some teams this would be a great match up, but not against Duke, who has one of the best frontcourt players in the ACC (Kyle Singler), and more than enough big bodies to put around him.
With the emergence of the Duke backcourt, we once again see how different these teams look this season. Scheyer and Smith are playing great ball right now, and should easily dominate a young FSU backcourt. Florida State has been overestimated all season, and that's a big reason they're just 4-10 ATS. While on the flip side, its time to give credit where credit is due, and the Blue Devils are now 12-6 ATS on the season, incl. 7-3 ATS at Cameron Indoor!
Bottom line, the Noles used to own this series ATS because of their excellent guard play, but things in college hoops are cyclical, and right now Duke has the superior backcourt. Not to mention, the frontcourt match ups are very even, especially if Singleton gets in his usual foul trouble. In the end, lay the points, as Duke will not be taking this match up lightly. Blue Devils roll!
Take Duke over Florida State in this college hoops match up.
2♦ DUKE
Brett Atkins
I'm 11-7 with my last 18 freebies and tonight I love this play on Northeastern as the Huskies host Drexel in a Colonial Athletic Association contest.
You want an early underdog alert when it comes to the Big Dance, watch out for Northeastern as the Huskies have been a dominant team in the Colonial Athletic Association, going 8-1 so far and rattling off 11 straight wins overall. The Huskies are for real and if they can get through the conference and into the tourney, they could pull off one or two upsets.
I definitely love them tonight against Drexel. Northeastern has been crushing teams lately and they’ve covered the spread in 10 of their last 11, including Saturday when they beat VCU 74-62 at home as a 3 ½-point favorite.
This Huskies’ squad did lose five straight this season, but their competition was fierce, going to Rhode Island, then facing a good St. Mary’s team on a neutral court and they lost at home to Providence. Only one of their losses this season was ugly, as they were in every game they played.
Northeastern has a very balanced squad with four of five starters scoring in double digits against VCU on Saturday and the one who didn’t managed eight points.
Drexel was one of those team to beat Northeastern earlier, winning 49-47, so you know there will be some revenge in mind. Drexel shoots just 37.9 percent from the floor on the road while Northeastern puts up 70 points a game at home. Too much scoring for Northeastern tonight. Lay the chalk and play the Huskies.
4♦ NORTHEASTERN
Jay McNeil
I sure as hell didn't see South Carolina pulling off an upset of top-ranked Kentucky on Tuesday, but hats off to the Gamecocks. That loss with my free play dropped my record to 42-36-1 over the last 79 days, but I'll be back on my game with a college hoops winner today!
Wyoming has been putting up the points this season, averaging 77.4 ppg. But now it is without leading scorer Afam Muojeke (16.8 ppg), who suffered a season-ending knee injury last Wednesday at BYU.
The Cowboys haven't played since then, and they are bound to miss Muojeke, especially with no other player averaging more than 10.9 ppg.
Wyoming had been scoring a lot with Muojeke, but it also has been giving up plenty of points, allowing 74.9 ppg. Utah has been up and down this season, but Jim Boylan's teams always play hard and play smart basketball.
The Utes lead the Mountain West in 3-point defense, holding opponents to 29.6 percent from behind the arc, and they have a strong defensive presence inside with center David Foster.
Utah already has road wins this season against Louisiana State and UNLV, so it should be able to take care of a short-handed Wyoming squad tonight. Go with the Utes to cover the points.
3♦ UTAH
Joel Tyson
Winner last night on the Bucks plus the points.
For tonight go with New Mexico to stop BYU's 15 game winning streak, as the Lobos are bringing an 11-1 straight up home mark into this affair.
The last time the Cougars paid a visit to the Pit they were romped 81-62, and while I don't expect a similar final, I think the Lobos have proven they are a "tough out" on their home floor, and will be up for the challenge.
Expect this to be a heated affair, and expect the home crowd to help the host post the upset win in this spot.
New Mexico is the call.
2♦ NEW MEXICO