Chuck O'Brien
Take the Bulls plus the point at Oklahoma City in Wednesday’s NBA action.
Chicago has posted three VERY impressive road wins in a row, knocking off the Suns, Rockets and Spurs, all as an underdog of between 6 and 8 points. Now 7-2 over their last nine games and 11-5 over their last 16, the Bulls are clearly playing their best basketball of the season. They’re also one of the hottest spread-covering teams in the NBA, cashing in 15 of their last 21 games, including seven of their last nine on the road.
Oklahoma City is coming off a four-game road trip that started with two narrow wins over the Hawks (94-91) and TWolves (94-92) and ended with two heartbreak losses to the Grizzlies (86-84) and Cavaliers (100-99). That’s four straight games decided by a total of eight points, which is pretty much a staple of the Thunder, who have played a slew of tight games this year (in fact, 11 of their last 13 games have been decided by six points or less!).
Chicago is 5-2 SU and ATS in the last seven meetings with the Thunder, including last year’s 103-96 win in Oklahoma City as a 1½-point underdog. The Bulls have also cashed in eight of their last nine games as an underdog, while the Thunder are 2-5 ATS in their last seven as a favorite.
5♦ CHICAGO BULLS
Jeff Benton
For Wednesday's free play, I'll head to the NBA and take the Rockets at home against the Nuggets.
Lots of value in this game, because Denver has won seven in a row while Houston has dropped two in a row (both at home) and seven of 11, going 0-5 ATS at home during this slump. But lost in the Nuggets' seven-game winning streak is the fact that A) six of those wins came at home, B) they needed overtime to win two of the contests (including the one road game); and C) only two of the victories were blowouts (which is why Denver is just 3-3-1 ATS during its win streak).
In fact, the Nuggets have been burning money over the last couple of months, going 7-14-2 ATS in their last 23 games, including a woefuly 1-7-1 ATS (2-7 straight-up) on the road. And not once during that 23-game stretch has Denver -- which knocked off Charlotte 104-93 as a 5 1/2-point home chalk on Monday -- covered the spread in back-to-back games!
As for this rivarly, it's been dominated by the home team, which has won eight of the last nine meetings, with the Rockets taking each of the last four in Houston (3-1 ATS). Throw in the fact that Nuggets star Carmelo Anthony -- who sat out Monday's win over the Bobcats with a bum ankle but is expected to play tonight -- won't be close to 100 percent, and I'll call for the Rockets to extend Denver's road woes (both overall and in Houston).
7♦ HOUSTON
John Ryan
Delaware vs. George Mason
Play: Delaware +11.5
3* graded play on Delaware as they take on George Mason set to start at 7:00 EST. We had another huge day yesterday winning a 15* ACC GOM winner on a 2 point dog Boston College, who won SU over Clemson. We are now 11-1 ATS for 92% winners with these 15* Conference Games of the Month. Delaware is coming off their best offensive game to date defeating Georgia State 76-74. They shot 52% from the floor and had just 9 turnovers. Their have been 4 games where Delaware has had 49 or fewer turnovers and in the next game they are a solid 3-1 ATS. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 4-1 ATS this season and 103-56 ATS since 1997. Play against home favorites of 10 or more points hitting 3PT shots between 32-36.5% facing a poor 3PT shooting team allowing <=32%. And is a solid ball handling team committing <=14.5 TOPG facing a poor pressure defensive team forcing <=14.5 TOPG after 15+ games of the season. Take Delaware.
ALEX SMART
Vanderbilt @ Tennessee
PICK: Under 148.5
Though they’re yet to take on any of the SEC heavyweights, you have to hand it to HC Kevin Stallings and his ‘Dores for getting off to a perfect start. Their first defeat in conference play was staring right at them at home against Auburn, but they battled back from an 11-point halftime deficit to pull out the eight-point win. The ATS loss snapped a string of six victories in a row for their betting backers. Vandy is very efficient at the offensive end of the court. They rank 28th overall in scoring (79.2 PPG), 8th in FG% (49.7%), and 98th in 3-point% (36.2%) with four players averaging double-digits in scoring. Defensively, they’ve allowed opponents an average of 66.4 PPG (#132) and limited them to 40.2% shooting from the field (#58). The SEC East leaders are 5-3 SU and 4-3 ATS away from their own gym this season.
Tennessee posted 63-points for the second game in a row, only this time, it wasn’t enough to get past a feisty bunch of Bulldogs last weekend. The 78-63 defeat at the hands of Georgia snapped HC Bruce Pearl’s kids winning streak at seven in a row, and they’ll more than likely enter tonight’s contest in a foul mood because of it. The Vols defense was torched by UGA as it allowed the Dawgs to shoot 56.2% from the field and convert 7 of their 12 attempts from beyond the arc; their 34/22 deficit on the board didn’t help matters either. Tennessee scores an average of 78.8 PPG (#30) and converts at a 47.3% clip from the field (#38). They’ve been exceptional defensively giving up just 64.1 PPG (#80), while allowing opponents to shoot just 38.7% from the field (#20) and 30.1% from beyond the arc (#33). They’re a perfect 10-0 SU at home, but just 4-3 ATS in their seven lined games.
In order for Tennessee to cash their betting backers tickets this evening, they’ll have to buckle down on the defensive end of the court. Vandy’s had an easy go of it, but the offense is in store for a rude awakening tonight; especially since the defense got abused over the weekend. These teams have played to the under in each of their L/5 confrontations, and I look for that streak to continue this evening.
TEDDY COVERS
Illinois State @ Wichita State
PICK: Wichita State -6.5
I’m not a big believer in the value of home courts, and consistently look to back road underdogs and road favorites throughout the course of the college basketball season. That being said, there are homecourts which are worthy of respect – tough, nasty places for opposing teams to play. Wichita State has that type of a homecourt. The Shockers are 12-0 on this floor this year, with ten of those victories coming by double digit margins, and another by nine points against a Northern Iowa team that had won 15 in a row prior to their visit to Koch Arena.
Wichita State played arguably their worst game of the season on Saturday, blown out at Drake. They’ve lost three other games this year. All three times, the Shockers bounced back with a strong performance in their next ballgame, winning those three contests by a combined 47 points. In short, Wichita State at home off a loss is a very good betting opportunity.
The Shockers have the depth to wear Illinois State down. Nine players get double digit minutes in Gregg Marshall’s rotation; no player averages more than 30 minutes per contest. Wichita State has the size to bang with the Redbirds inside. The Shockers guards are stellar defenders. Toure’ Murray, Clevin Hannah, Graham Hatch and David Kyles all average at least one steal per game, leading to easy transition buckets.
The stats tell a clear story here. Wichita State has the better defensive field goal percentage and the better offensive field goal percentage. The Shockers force more turnovers. They defend the three point line better than the Redbirds. They are the better rebounding team. They have the superior assist-to-turnover ratio on offense and on defense. And, so crucial in tight conference games like this one, Wichita State hits free throws at a 75 percent clip, capable of sealing the deal in the final minutes. Put it all together and the case for the short home favorite is perfectly clear. 2* Take Wichita State.
Mark Franco
Miami Heat vs. Toronto Raptors
Play: Toronto Raptors -3
The Raptors and Heat have each won a game at home in this season's series. Toronto now has nine wins in its last 10 home games, including a 106-105 exciting victory over the Los Angeles Lakers on Sunday. Look for Chris Bosh and the rest of the Raptors to out play the Heat in the end. Back Toronto at home minus the small number.
Jimmy Boyd
1 Unit on Ohio State Buckeyes -10
While Iowa is playing its best basketball of the season, Ohio State is the superior team, and I expect it to bounce back strong from a loss to West Virginia here tonight. Iowa is just 6-13 ATS in all lined games this season, including 3-9 ATS at home. Unless you can force turnovers on defense, Ohio State has shown that it can handle you. That's why we see the Buckeyes at 7-0 ATS versus bad pressure defensive teams forcing 12 or fewer turnovers per game after 15+ games over the last 3 seasons. Iowa will have to much to contend with tonight as Evan Turner, William Buford, and Jon Diebler all create matchup problems for the Hawkeyes. Iowa did play Ohio State tough in Iowa City last season but the Hawks needed 8 3-pointers from Devan Bawinkle and 19 points and 11 boards from Jake Kelly to keep it close. Kelly, Iowa's best player last season, is no longer with the team and Bawinkle is only getting 15 minutes per game this season as he hasn't been nearly as productive and a liability at the defensive end. We'll lay the points with Ohio State.
Joseph D'Amico
Florida State vs. Duke
Play: Duke -12
The #7 ranked Duke Blue Devil's are a solid squad. They are 16-3 SU, 12-6 ATS, 11-0 at home, and 4-2 in the Conference. They are strong FT shooters at 77.2% and are 38.8% beyond the arc. Duke has won and covered 4 straight at home. They are healthy and hungry. Blue Devil's Guards Scheyer and Smith are both averaging over 18 PPG. The tandem moves the ball around well and wears down opponenets. They face a Seminole's team that is 0-4 ATS their L4 vs. the ACC, 2-5 ATS their L7 on the road, and 0-4 ATS their L4 overall. Each time FSU steps up in class and plays a top team, they just can't cut it. As was the case in their losses to Florida 68-52, OSU 77-64, Maryland 78-68, and NC State 88-81. Duke is too tough and will win and cover. Thank you.
Jack Jones
Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Cleveland Cavaliers
Play: Cleveland Cavaliers -12½
I'm laying the big number with the Cavs on Wednesday night against one of the worst road teams in the entire NBA, the Minnesota Timberwolves.
Minnesota is just 3-20 on the season as the visiting team and you'd be hard pressed to find a team with worse road numbers. The T-Wolves are scoring 98.6 points per game on the road, but their defense is allowing 112.3 ppg. That's a 13-point losing margin and they've most played their games against teams not called the Cleveland Cavaliers.
The Cavs are now 17-3 in Cleveland this season. They score just over 100 ppg on their home court while holding opposing teams to just 92.6 points per game. Also, keep in mind that the average offense that the Cavs have faced so far this season averaged more points per game than Minnesota does and you can really see why laying this many points is not that big of a deal with this match up.
The last meeting between these two was back in October in Minnesota where the Cavs won by 17. Before that, in March of last season the Cavs beat the Wolves by 22 in Cleveland. I'll take them to cover another big spread Wednesday night.
Black Widow
1* on Colorado Buffaloes -2.5
Colorado has defended their home court very well this season. In fact, the Big 12 conference as a whole has the best home-court advantage in the nation. Colorado's home record sits at 9-1 at home this season, winning by 14.2 points/game. Nebraska is 2-5 S.U. & 2-5 ATS away from home this year. The Cornhuskers are 9-19 ATS (-11.9 Units) in road games over the last 3 seasons. The Buffaloes are 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) after having lost 4 or 5 of their last 6 games over the last 2 seasons. Take Colorado and lay the points as they continue their home dominance.
Stan Lisowski
MEMPHIS
The Grizzlies are playing this with 22 point revenge in a series where the visitor has won and covered 3 straight. Detroit is 8-20 outright when installed as an underdog this year and are 9-21 ATS at home off of a beat. Memphis is 9-4 against the East this season.
Rocketman
Memphis @ Detroit
Play: Memphis -1.5
Memphis comes in with a 24-19 overall record this year while Detroit is 15-28 on the season. Memphis is 14-2 SU this year as a favorite. Detroit is 2-9 SU and ATS the past 3 years when playing with 3 days or more rest. Memphis has won 6 of their last 7 overall and 11 of their last 14 overall. Grizzlies are 22-6 ATS in their last 28 games following a SU win. Grizzlies are 20-6-1 ATS in their last 27 vs. Eastern Conference. Grizzlies are 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 games overall. Pistons are 21-46 ATS in their last 67 games following a SU loss. Favorite is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings. Road team is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings. We'll recommend a small play on Memphis tonight!
Spartan
Texas A&M +5 vs Oklahoma St.
This is shaping up as an excellent game featuring two teams flying under the radar in the Big 12. Texas A&M ventures into Stillwater, Oklahoma tonight to do battle with Oklahoma State. Stillwater is truly a rugged place to play and the record clearly points that out as the Cowboys are a perfect 10-0 at home. Texas A&M has played six ranked opponents this season thus far, that is twice as many as any other Big 12 team. This is a team that has been tested guys and I feel although obviously the Cowboys should be favored at home, 5 points is too many. The Aggies have prevailed in five of the last eight meetings. I feel the Aggies stay within the number here guys, key thing is how committed the kids are to playing defense tonight. When Mark Turgeon sells his team on defending they find success, if their heart is not in it they will not prevail here. In their three conference win they have only allowed 59 points per game, in their pair of losses they have been smoked for 80 points per game. My prediction is Turgeon will have them ready and Oklahoma State could be looking ahead a bit to this weekends huge road game at Missouri. I see the value here in the dog guys. Take Texas A&M plus the 5 points.
King Creole
Iowa +11 vs Ohio St.
Playing big-time confident UNDERDOGS with a win or two under their belts has been VERY profitable for the Dawg Pound this far.... and we're coming out firing again on Wednesday night.
24-9 ATS this season: All Conference Underdogs playing off a SU Underdog win (IOWA)... versus any opponent off a SU loss (Ohio State).... And if our 'Play ON' team is actually off TWO Underdogs wins in a row (like IOWA). the results are a PERFECT 5-0 ATS on the season.
BIG 10 Conference: 12-4 ATS for all DOUBLE-DIGIT home underdogs playing off a SU win (IOWA). These teams have gone a PERFECT 5-0 ATS in the last 10 years!
Dan Bebe
TOR -3 vs MIA
Split action is just what the doctor ordered on this one, and no clear line movement means that our handicapping is the top tool in the belt.
Toronto continues to surge back into the thick of the Eastern Conference playoff race, and this is a great opportunity to beat another quality team at home. Rather than retype the bulk of my note on this game, allow me to begin by pasting some text from my morning blog:
"The important notes on this game are obviously the emotional spot, mentioned above, with the Heat coming off a disappointing loss to the Cavs in a game that they truly should have won if not for a few key flubs at the free throw line. It's just impossible for me to come to terms with the idea of the Heat failing to hang on to that late lead over Lebron, then getting excited to travel quite a distance north to Toronto, dealing with customs, and playing a non-divisional opponent for the 3rd time this season. These teams have split the first 2 meetings, with the home team covering relatively easily in each game so far. Interestingly, Toronto was favored by 3 the last time these clubs met north of the border, and they won by 7…I'm inclined to believe we see a strong defensive effort from the Raptors - yes, you heard correctly. I really like how Toronto is playing at home, and I think Miami scoring in the 90's is quite probable. The Raptors have won 4 of the last 5 meetings with the Heat in Canada, and this spread is the oddsmakers' way of telling us these teams are evenly matched. Noting that fact, the Raptors are damn tough at home at 15-6 SU, 12-9 ATS. The Heat have been a strong road proposition, but they're very streaky, and that loss to Cleveland is a pretty obvious catalyst for a potential exothermic reaction (yeah, I know, I stretched Physics 101 here). Still, my point is that I think Miami is going to give off energy, and I think Toronto is going to collect it."
So, going off those notes, I should add a few more pieces to the puzzle.
First, the split action I mentioned above. Books appear to be getting money on both sides of this one, and a few have even moved the spread to -3.5, a good sign that the earlier money was enough to move the line a tiny bit, but we're not going against any clear disadvantage on the line movement front.
Second, Toronto has won 9 of their last 10 home games, with the lone loss coming to the Celtics who just seem to have the Raptors' number. This team is really starting to come together, and Chris Bosh is having an All-World type season. I love his match-up edge over whoever the Heat decide to start at power forward. If Miami decides to put Jermaine O'Neal on Bosh, Andrea Bargnani will be left open to shoot over someone half his size. If O'Neal guards Bosh, the rim should be fairly available for the Raptors' team use.
Obviously, Dwyane Wade is a problem, and is easily one of the 3 or 4 most difficult guards in the entire NBA, but Toronto's help defense has been outstanding lately, and Miami is going to have to show that they can hit outside shots, as I expect Toronto to continue trying to clog the lane on defense. Miami's outside shooters are very streaky, and barring a 7 3-pointer game from someone like Mario Chalmers, Toronto would appear to have an advantage on both sides of the ball. I love Toronto's rotation at PG with both Jarrett Jack and Jose Calderon getting solid minutes and putting constant (and unique types of) pressure on the opposition. They can each create problems, and Calderon's presence in the second unit gives Toronto a huge boost during that span of time near the end of the 1st quarter and beginning of the second.