Charlie Scott
Notre Dame vs. Villanova
Play: Under 166.5
In Mid December I decided I would stay away from Notre Dame totals since they were already high and yet went over most of the time. However, I can't stay away from tonights total, it just looks wrong to me. I have used 3 different total formulas and the highest I got was 156. My old school handicapping style also points to the Under for many reasons, everything has to go right for this game to get to 167, Notre Dame isn't very good on the road and could lay an egg shooting, Notre Dame will employ a zone defense that will take time off the clock, the game isn't being played at Villanova's Home court, but rather a bigger arena in Philadelphia which could affect outside shooting. In the end I just couldn't pass playing Under this many points in a College game !
SportsInsights
Cleveland Cavaliers -12.5 over Minnesota Timberwolves
Minnesota heads to the Quicken Loans Arena tonight after getting blown out by the Knicks last night 132-105. The LeBrons are on a roll, having won 7 of their last 8 games, a number of those coming on the hostile road against Western Conference teams. Last week saw them return to Cleveland to enjoy a little home cooking, but they haven't gotten all of their wins comfortably. The last two, in fact, have come by one lonely point. They haven't won by double digits since January 10th at Portland and only twice in their last 13 games. Of course, in that span, they've played no one as inept as the 9-37 Timberwolves.
It appears that some big Public money is counting on the Cavs continuing their streak of close games. Although Cleveland is the slightest of Public favorites in terms of betting percentages - currently getting 51% - the line has dropped from 14 at almost every offshore book. No moves have been triggered by Sports Insights Betting Systems to indicate sharp money on the T'Wolves, and it's rare that the Cavaliers' line doesn't get inflated by a deluge of Public money. That smells like value to us, and we've also seen a Smart Money play triggered on Cleveland by Olympic (+5.55 Units Won). That's good enough for us. The line has dropped from where it opened almost everywhere, but you'll find extra value tonight at BetUS.
Cleveland Cavaliers -12.5
New Jersey Devils +124 over Buffalo Sabres
For our first game tonight we are taking the New Jersey Devils (34-16-1) to beat the Buffalo Sabres (30-14-7) on the road. This will be the third meeting between these two teams, with the road team taking the victory in the past two. Neither team has been outstanding as of late with the Devils going 4-6-0 and the Sabres going 4-3-3 in their past ten. The Devils will look to streaking forward Zach Parise, who has four points in his last four games and leads the team with 23 points. While to Sabres will hope to have better luck at home then they did on the road (the Sabres went 2-3-2 on the 7-game road trip).
The Sabres opened at -133 at Matchbook but has since dropped down to -127 with the public backing them with 56% of moneyline bets. Other books have seen similar movement or held still at the opening numbers. We like to see lines drop or hold steady when the public is heavily backing the other side, and for this reason we will take the Devils to go into Buffalo and wipe the floor with the Sabres.
New Jersey Devils +124
Calgary Flames +110 over Dallas Stars
Kicking off an hour and a half after our first game we are taking the Calgary Flames (26-20-6) to defeat the Dallas Stars (22-19-11). This too will be the third meeting of these two teams with the road teams taking one each. The big question in the past few weeks is: What is going on in Calgary? The once red hot Flames have been nearly extinguished as of late going 0-5-1 in their last six games at home. Dallas is still on the outside looking in at the playoffs, and is starting to hear talks of trades involving goalie Marty Turco and perennial Star Mike Modano. Being on the road may be just what the Flames need to get back that spark, and back into playoff contention.
The Stars opened at -130 at Pinnacle but has since dropped to -114. The public is fairly undecided on which side to take on this game, with each team being favored by 2-5% at any given time, with the lion's share being given to the Stars most of the time. We will take this information into consideration and take the Flames to win in Dallas.
Calgary Flames +110
Hollywood Sports
Minnesota Timberwolves at Cleveland Cavaliers
Prediction: Minnesota Timberwolves
Wednesday's NBA matchup between the Cavaliers and the Timberwolves offers an excellent technical situation to play the big underdog. Cleveland (35-11) has won five games in a row after defeating the Heat in Miami, 92-91, Monday night. But Cleveland frequently underachieves against point spread expectations. Over this recent five-game stretch, Cleveland only covered as a small dog in Miami and then against Kobe and the Lakers (in a game where they were clearly motivated to play well). The Cavaliers have failed to cover in four of their last five games when playing teams with a losing record. Furthermore, Cleveland has certainly been known to put it in cruise control when on their home court as they have failed to cover in nine of their last eleven home games against teams with a losing record on the road. Minnesota (9-36) enters their Tuesday night game in New York against the Knicks having lost seven of their last eight games. But the Timberwolves have covered in five of their last seven games. And Minnesota has covered in four of their last five games against teams with winning records. While it may look ugly for awhile, look for the Timberwolves to end up staying within the big number in Cleveland against the Cavs on Wednesday. Take the points with Minnesota.
Info Plays
3* on Ohio State -10
Reasons why Ohio State covers:
1.) System Play. We'll Play On - Road favorites of 10 or more points (OHIO ST) - after having won 3 of their last 4 games, a good team (60% to 80%) playing a team with a losing record. This is a 102-52 ATS System hitting 66.2% since 1997. The Buckeyes are finally healthy and playing their best ball of the season. Bet Ohio State on the road.
Kyle Hunter
Saint Louis vs. George Washington Total
Play Under 123½
Saint Louis is a terrific team to bet on the under when the odds makers put a line semi-high up. This line is pretty low, but I think there is a lot of value here. The Colonials have slowed down in a major way this year and the under is 9-4 in their last 13. St. Louis will never speed the game up, and I expect this one to be a low scoring close showdown. Last year these two put up 122 in their meeting, and GW has much less offensive firepower now than they did then. Take the under.