Brandon Lee
Virginia Tech +10
The Hokies are getting too many points at home in this matchup. Miami is simply overvalued due to their current 7-game winning streak. The Hurricanes will have a difficult time getting motivated for this game with a huge showdown at NC State on tap for Saturday. I don't think the Hokies will be able to pull off the upset, but they should keep it within single digits. Virginia Tech is a solid 2-0-2 ATS in their last 4 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600. Take the Points!
Dennis Macklin
Baylor -6½
After watching Oklahoma in two of their last three games, I think Lon Kruger has taken this bunch of Sooners as far as he can take them. They won six of eight bit are just 1-2 on the road with losses of 9 and 13 points. Oklahoma has lost three straight in Waco, all by at least 10 points. Baylor is 3-0 at home in conference with all three wins by 7+ and the Bears have also won five of the last seven in the series. Baylor is one of the better defensive teams in the Big 12 and that's not good for an Oklahoma team that struggles for points at times.
Andrew Lange
Oregon at Stanford
Play: Over
Last time out, without starting point guard Dominic Artis, Oregon scored 81 points in an up-tempo, 76 possession game against Washington. I don't think we'll see those types of numbers tonight but it's clear that from a tempo standpoint, even without Artis, the Ducks are going to continue to run.
"We need to keep running," Altman said. "That suits us and helps us with our depth. If we're going to play nine or 10 guys, we've got to make sure we're pressing the other team."
Stanford has been up and down all season but we've seen the Cardinal push tempo with a willing partner. Games against USC, UCLA and Colorado featured an average of 70 possessions. The problem for Stanford has been an inconsistent offense. I expect them to pressure Oregon's back-up point guards and force a more than a few turnovers which should lead to a handful of easy/extra buckets.
When playing OVERS, getting to free throw line and knocking them down is critical. We get both with these two squads. Through seven games, Stanford and Oregon are tops in the PAC-12 from the charity stripe at over 75%. And both squads average north of 20 free throw attempts per game. Also note that when it comes to knocking down threes – another key for betting overs – Stanford and Oregon again rank first and second respectively in league play at 41% and 38%.
I'm confident we’ll see a swift pace here and if we avoid a bad shooting night or the refs decide to swallow the whistle, the over will cash.
Harry Bondi
VIRGINIA TECH (+10) over Miami-Florida
In the latest edition of the Bondi Bulletin (call for a FREE copy: 1-877-332-0077), we name Miami-Florida as one of the "Five Teams to Make Money On" during the final stretch of the regular season and into March Madness. In fact, we had the Hurricanes (+3) over Duke in a 90-63 thrashing last week as a play for ALL "Steam Team" members. But as high as we are on this team, tonight is a spot to go against the Canes. The team has received tremendous hype from national media outlets since that Duke win and it followed it up with a 71-47 dismantling of Florida State over the weekend. With NC State on deck this weekend, we simply don't see Miami putting forth its best effort tonight and will gladly take the home dog Hokies. Virginia Tech hasn't been a dog of this many points in more than three years and has the kind of mental toughness to keep this one close throughout. We've won three straight Free Picks, including underdogs the last two nights, and the Hokies make it four in a row!
Nelly
Seton Hall + over Georgetown
Georgetown enters this game coming off back-to-back big wins, beating Notre Dame last week and then getting a huge 53-51 win over Louisville on Saturday. The Hoyas have been an inconsistent group having lost to South Florida and also getting blown out in a 28-point home loss against Pittsburgh in recent weeks. At home Georgetown is only out-scoring foes by eight points per game on average despite 10 home wins and several soft non-conference games at home. Georgetown is just 2-5 ATS at home on the season and the inconsistent offensive performances can leave the Hoyas in a lot of tight low scoring games. Those types of grinds make Georgetown a favorable underdog but the Hoyas are a hard team to back as a modest favorite. Seton Hall has struggled with a 2-5 Big East record so far but most games have been competitive. The Pirates had an encouraging non-conference season with only two losses and a few respectable wins and the last two road games in conference play have been tight games, losing by seven at Marquette and falling by four at St. John's. Seton Hall won by 18 when these teams played last season and the Pirates will push the pace against Georgetown which could be uncomfortable for a limited Hoyas offense. Georgetown has tremendous defensive numbers, allowing just 55 points per game this season but with their second leading scorer still on suspension and coming off the biggest win of the season this looks like a potential flat spot for the offense. Seton Hall has five wins away from home this season and a winning ATS road record and this should be a tight game that favors the underdog.
Hollywood Sports
New Orleans at Utah
Prediction: Under
The Jazz (24-21) will be playing their third game in a row after their 125-80 loss at home to Houston on Monday. Utah has played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a double-digit loss at home. The Jazz have also played 5 straight games Under the Total against teams with a losing record. Additionally, while the Hornets are 8-15 on the road, Utah has played 4 of their last 5 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage below 40% on the road. New Orleans (15-30) is playing their third game in a row on the road after their 111-106 loss in Los Angeles against the Lakers last night. The Hornets have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total played without a day of rest. And while the Jazz are 15-5 at home this year, New Orleans have played 6 of their last 7 games on the road Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% at home this season. Take the Under in this one.
Andre Gomes
Atlanta -7
Toronto has Kyle Lowry, Landry Fields and Amir Johnson banged up for tonight and from these three players, Amir Johnson is no doubt the most important one, as Toronto has an offensive rating improvement of +10.1 and a defensive rating improvement of -5.9 with him on the court! Therefore, a banged up Amir is terrible news for the Raptors tonight both offensively and defensively. The Raptors have in the Hawks a tough matchup and this is thanks to Atlanta's transition plays. Toronto isn't a fast team in getting back into defense (#23 in transition defense, while allowing 1.17 PPP for the season, with 1.37 PPP over their last 10 games) and they got completely exposed on their last game, where they got crushed by Golden State's transitions (11-16 FG 1.47 PPP)!
Curiously, Atlanta has been destroying their opponents on transitions all season long and since they got crushed at Chicago, with just 58 points scored, their offense has been changed for the best. They are already an elite team on transitions by being #6 in the league with 1.19 PPP and #6 in fast break points per game with 16.7 ppg, but they have been better lately with 20.2 fast break points per game on their last 5 games! Atlanta's offense will have a super edge on this area and if Amir Johnson is indeed struggle physically, then Al Horford and Josh Smith will also be too much for Toronto. The Raptors's offense has been playing well, without committing turnovers, however Atlanta's defense is an elite team in forcing turnovers and with Kyle Lowry not being physically at 100%, the Raptors may struggle on this area tonight.
The Raptors are once again involved in a lot of trade rumors, so they are struggling in keeping their focus on the games. I expect Atlanta to absolutely pound Toronto on transitions and down low, therefore I'll be taking the Hawks tonight for an easy win.
Bob Balfe
Philadelphia 76ers -3
Washington has been money in the bank this year against the spread and horrible in the winning games. The can beat anyone in this league at home while Washington only has 3 road wins all year. Look for the Sixers to take care of business tonight. Take Philadelphia.
LA Lakers -2.5
I know the Lakers are playing back to back and it can be hard for an older team, but this is the time in the year they have to make that push to get into the playoffs and must win games like this against bad teams. Experience alone should win this one. Take the Lakers.
Depaul +7.5
I like this St. Johns team, but they can’t make foul shots for the life of them and its hard to win by double digits against anybody when you are missing easy chances to put points on the board. This is not really a team that gets out to huge leads and I think this is a very generous spread for us tonight. Take DePaul.