Free Picks: Service Plays for Wednesday, January 5,2011

Marc Lawrence

Denver Nuggets at Los Angeles Clippers
Prediction: Los Angeles Clippers

When the Clippers host the Nuggets in a Western Conference clash at the Staples Center in Los Angeles this evening they will take the court with double revenge on their minds from a pair of losses in this series this season. L.A. has fared well at home against Denver, going 16-7 SU and 14-9 ATS of late, including 5-1 ATS when playing with revenge and the Nuggets off a win. With the Clippers playing off back-to-back home losses, look for history to rear its head once again here tonight. We recommend a 1-unit play on the L.A. Clippers.

Tom Freese

Chicago Bulls at New Jersey Nets
Prediction: Chicago Bulls

New Jersey is 9-25 straight up this year. The Nets are 1-4 ATS their last 5 games as underdogs. New Jersey is 3-8 ATS vs. Eastern Conference teams. The Nets are 1-6 ATS when their opponent scores 100 or more points in their last game. Chicago is 23-10 straight up this year. The Bulls are 18-8 ATS their last 26 road games and they are 6-1 ATS after scoring 100 or more points in their last game. Chicago is 11-5 ATS vs. NBA Atlantic teams. The Bulls are 6-2 ATS their last 8 games as favorites of 5.0 to 10.5 points

VEGAS EXPERTS

San Antonio Spurs at Boston Celtics

We never like the Spurs in the second night of back to back games, but this spot is particularly bad. Last night San Antonio lost in Madison Square Garden, allowing a season high 128 points. Since the start of last season, they are 9-20 against the spread after allowing 105 or more points in their previous game. Boston holds serve at home in a potential NBA Finals preview.

Play on: Boston

Nick “The BookieKiller” Parsons

Nashville Predators @ Anaheim Mighty Ducks
PICK: Anaheim Mighty Ducks

Good line value here on a team that plays much better in front of the home town crowd than on the road:

The Ducks are 21-17-2-2 overall, 8-11-2-1 on the road, but 13-6-0-1 at the Honda Center; on the 2nd they beat Chicago 2-1, which was their third win a row, and second on home ice after also beating the Flyers 5-2 on New Years Eve.

Significant to note that Anaheim is 3-2 (+2.1 units) this year when playing with two-days of rest.

On the other side of the rink are the Nashville Predators who are 19-13-4-2 overall, and 10-9-1-0 on the road; on the 2nd they beat Columbus 4-1, their second win in a row after beating Minnesota 4-1 on the 31st.

The Predators have struggled in Anaheim though; just 2-9 their last 11 at the Honda Center.

Bottom line: Nashville will be without center Cal O'Reilly for the first time this year, who broke his fibula in his right leg on Sunday in the victory over the Blue Jackets.

And that's bad news for the Preds, who now face Jonas Hiller, who is 8-2-0 with a 1.83 GAA over his last ten-starts, including a 1.71 GAA during the Ducks current five-game home win streak.

Hiller is 2-1-0 with a 1.67 GAA in three-starts at home vs. Nashville.

Consider a second look at the Anaheim Ducks in this situation.

Chip Chirimbes

Denver Nuggets vs. Los Angeles Clippers
Play: Los Angeles Clippers +4

Of course we all realize that Denver is much better then the Clippers, but not in this situation. Denver is 12-18-3 again st the number and only 5-10 on the road whereas the Clippers are 16-17-1 against the points and 7-13 straight-up at home. The points are worth taking!

Jim Feist

Los Angeles Lakers vs. Phoenix Suns
Play: Los Angeles Lakers -4½

Phoenix may have home court, but they are not playing good basketball, on a 1-4 SU/ATS run. They are also 3-9 ATS their last 12 games. Phoenix is a poor rebounding team, small and soft up front, and the Lakers can take advantage with their huge frontcourt. It will be good for LA to get out of town, as the Lakers were outworked and outhustled in 104-85 loss to the Grizzlies this week. Coach Phil Jackson said the Lakers didn't take "responsibility on themselves to play better" and the Staples Center crowd booed the team. The wild card in the Lakers' season is Andruw Bynum, as he is slowly rounding into game shape. He has played 11 games following off-season knee surgery, and he had five blocked shots against Memphis. This is an excellent matchup for the visitors. Play the LA Lakers.

Ray Monohan

Portland Trail Blazers vs. Houston Rockets
Play: Houston Rockets -6

Last game out the TRAIL BLAZERS (18-17) led 77-72 Tuesday against Dallas before dropping an 84-81 decision. The Rockets have lost two straight in the midst of playing nine straight games over a 14-day period against teams that currently all have winning records. Despite the loss of Yao Ming for the season and Aaron Brooks for 21 games, the Rockets are still hanging around for that eighth spot in the West, just 1.5 games behind Wednesday’s opponent and equally injury-depleted Portland. Rockets are 10-5 at home. They are 9-1 in their last 10 at home, with a loss to Miami. The Blazers are only 6-14 on the road this year. Out with a knee injury the Blazers won't have Brandon Roy tonight. Houston is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Portland, Houston is 9-1 SU in its last 10 games at home, The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Houston's last 9 games when playing Portland, Houston is 7-2-1 ATS in its last 10 games at home, The Rockets are 9-0 that last 9 times they've played Portland in Houston. The clubs split the four-game series last year, but the Rockets have won six straight here – nine straight including the 2009 playoffs.

Tom Stryker

Atlanta @ Utah
PICK: Utah

Even though Atlanta plays this game with revenge from a four-point home loss to Utah back on November 12th, there's no way I'll side with the Hawks in this non-conference battle. The Jazz apply to one of their best team roles and this technical situation demands our respect.

At home running the court against an opponent that checks in without rest, Utah has been a solid investment posting a respectable 171-120 ATS record dating back to the 1990-91 season. Matched up against an Eastern Conference opponent in this role, the Jazz have danced to a beautiful 59-37 ATS mark.

In case you haven't noticed, Utah has been a monster in non-conference action anyway posting a sensational 33-8 SU and 31-10 ATS record in its last 41 games. Off an ATS loss in this role, the Jazz have cruised to a nifty 14-1 SU and 13-2 ATS mark.

This isn't exactly the greatest spot for Atlanta either. On the road in non-conference action battling an opponent that sports a won/loss percentage of .655 or better, the Hawks have crash landed notching a woeful 6-39 SU and 11-34 ATS record. Off a straight up win in this role, Hotlanta turns ice cold posting a stunning 2-16 SU and 3-15 ATS record.

This will be the Hawks fourth straight road game and they enter off back-to-back wins over the Clippers and Kings. The Jazz are an entirely different animal and Atlanta will be in trouble here. Take Utah.

SPORTS WAGERS

Tampa Bay +1.88 over PITTSBURGH

Wow, talk about an overlay. The Lightning are playing better than any team in the NHL but the books or the public or both aren’t buying it. If this game was in Tampa, the Bolts would not be close to being the same price as the Pens are here but they’re just as good, maybe better and they’re certainly hotter than the Pens too. Pittsburgh is coming off that loss at the Winter Classic is a game they scored one goal. That’s the third time in the last four games that Pittsburgh has been held to a single goal. The Pens also travel to Montreal tomorrow to play the Habs, thus, this game is sandwiched between The Classic and the Canadiens. Marc Andre Fleury leads the Eastern Conference goaltenders in the all-star ballots. That’s more proof that how the public perceives the Pens because Fleury is maybe the 17th best goaltender in the league. The Bolts have reeled off three in a row and over that stretch they’ve allowed two goals against. They’ve picked up points in 11 of their last 12 games and that’s with shaky goaltending. Dwayne Roloson stabilizes that flaw and in terms of value, regardless of the outcome here, it really doesn’t get much better than this. Of course the Lightning can win here. Big overlay. Play: Tampa Bay +1.88 (Risking 2 units).

Nashville +1.12 over ANAHEIM

This line seems awfully low when you consider that the Ducks have won three in a row with the last two victories being against Chicago and Philly. Also consider that the Predators are not a popular team at all and outside of Music City they have no fan base whatsoever. Hell, Elvis Presley and Johnny Cash get more coverage locally than the Preds and they’re both dead. The puck line has the Ducks -½ +1.40. If you take the Preds you get a half puck but you have to lay –1.52 and that’s a bet that cannot be made. The point is, the books are looking to sway folks off the Preds, a team that has lost five of seven with only two wins over that stretch coming against the Wild and Jackets, with a very enticing take-back on the Ducks. With that in mind, we’ll play the Preds in regulation because the line heavily suggests that the Preds will not lose this one in regulation. Play: Nashville +1.12 (Risking 2 units).

Craig Trapp

Memphis U vs. Tennessee
Play: Memphis U +5.5

Battle of Tennessee tonight and think this game is a very good one. TEN has struggled losing 4 of last 6 games. Memphis on the other hand has been playing great all year and even played KAN close until just at the end. MEM is one of the better athletic teams in the nation and think they actually win this game.

SPORTS WAGERS

UTAH –6 over Atlanta

This is simply a great spot for the Jazz. Atlanta played last night in Sacramento and won by six but they were running on fumes in the fourth quarter when they allowed the Kings 39 points. This is the Hawks third game in four days and it’s also their sixth game in 10 days and fourth straight on the road. Marvin Williams remains on the rack and that hurts. The Hawks have had about the easiest schedule in the Association over the past month with games against Detroit, Indiana, Charlotte, New Jersey, Cleveland, Milwaukee, Golden State, the Clip Joint and Sacramento. All those teams are way under .500 and the only teams they played over .500 were Boston, New Orleans, Orlando and the Thunder. The Hawks lost three of those four and they lost them by 7, 9 and 12 points. Now an exhausted Atlanta squad, minus Marvin Williams, is going to play a well-prepped, very talented and rested Jazz squad in Utah and they’re very likely going to get bludgeoned. lay: Utah –6 (Risking 2.04 units to win 2).

Jimmy Boyd

1 Unit on Philadelphia 76ers -6.5

The 76ers finally return home following an 8-game road trip, which ended with back-to-back defeats. As if putting an end to this two-game losing streak isn't enough motivation, the 76ers have already lost twice to Washington this season. Those losses came by a total of 3 points, and the 76ers will be out to avenge them here. Philly will have an excellent opportunity to get back in the win column against a Washington squad that is 0-16 away from home this season. It is also worth noting that the Wiz have lost these games by 14.7 points on average. Plus, the 76ers are an impressive 17-8 ATS in their last 25 opportunities to avenge a loss to an opponent. The 76ers are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 home games, 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite, 6-0 ATS in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a losing road record and 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following an ATS loss. The Wizards are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games as an underdog. Lay the points.

Dave Price

1 Unit on New Jersey Nets +5.5

From the standpoint of the point spread, this series has been dominated by the home team. In fact, the home squad is 20-8 ATS in the last 28 meetings. Plus, the Bulls are just 3-13 ATS in the last 16 meetings at New Jersey. The Nets are a solid 7-3 ATS in their last 10 home contests and even 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. The Nets trailed the Bulls by just two points midway through the fourth quarter before falling short in Chicago last week. Expect that recent loss to serve as motivation tonight. Take the points.

Black Widow

1* on Charlotte Bobcats +6

The Minnesota Timberwolves should not be this heavily favored tonight when they host the Charlotte Bobcats. Sure, Minnesota is playing better of late, but the clear value in this game is with the road underdog. The Timberwolves have not been favored by more than 5 points in any game this season, and Minnesota is just 7-16 ATS in their last 23 games as a home favorite of 5.0-10.5. Charlotte is a team that loves facing Minnesota, and they've proven that over the last few years. The Bobcats are 7-1 in their last 8 meetings with Minnesota. The Bobcats are 20-7 ATS (+12.3 Units) after having lost 6 or 7 of their last 8 games over the last 3 seasons. The Timberwolves are 13-32 ATS (-22.2 Units) off a close road loss of 3 points or less since 1996. Charlotte is 35-21 ATS (+11.9 Units) versus poor teams - outscored by their opponents by 3+ points/game over the last 3 seasons. Take the Bobcats and the points.