DAVE COKIN
UNLV AT COLORADO ST
PLAY: UNLV -5
The number on this game has already gone up, and I guess that reflects the fact that UNLV is bigger, deeper and more talented than Colorado State. I don’t think there’s even a debate about that, particularly with Gian Clavell injured for the Rams.
Of course, games are not played on paper and that’s why the Runnin’ Rebels find themselves in an already desperate situation only one game into league play. They were absolutely terrible in the second half of the opener against Fresno State and flat out blew a game they should have won with relative ease.
If you want a great explanation of what’s wrong with UNLV hoops and ways to fix the problems, make sure to read the piece by Matt Youmans in today’s Las Vegas Review-Journal.
I think it’s fair to declare I’m not Mr. Optimism when it comes to this program. I was during the Lon Kruger days but those are long gone and LK is doing his thing with an Oklahoma team that might just be Final Four material. If not, they’re damn close. The Rebels are in a different place. They need to win this basketball game and get a road sweep against two very beatable teams in Colorado State and Wyoming.
The risk here is obvious enough. UNLV needs to be pressing and trapping but I’m not sure they will. They need to exploit a clear physical advantage in the paint and not just pass the ball around the perimeter while settling for low percentage threes. I’m again not sure they will.
But for one night, I’m going to have faith. UNLV’s turnover problems shouldn’t be as much of a concern as they usually are, as Colorado State doesn’t force errors. If the Rebels can grasp the concept of blocking out smaller opponents, they should be okay on the glass against a tenacious, but limited CSU roster. UNLV needs to not give open distance looks to John Gillon and Antwan Scott. If they take away the treys, the Rams offense figures to struggle.
That’s a lot of ifs, and given the track record of Dave Rice at Moby, maybe this isn’t the best idea I’ve ever had. But I do think the betting line is an indicator based on where it opened and for that it’s worth, where it moved. I know this. If UNLV takes another loss here and also struggles at Wyoming, this team could fall apart. I’ll call this a one-shot as I really think it’s a now or never road trip for UNLV. Rebels minus the points.
Sleepyj
Hawaii -9
I'm comfortable laying the -9 here with the Rainbow Warriors....Hawaii is one of the teams i have had on my radar for a good time now..It's time to fire on Hawaii at home here...I rated this game near -13...So i find value laying under double digits here....Hawaii defense here should step up in a high scoring game..Cal poly will struggle to keep pace in this game due to the horrific defense they play...Down low Hawaii can control the glass and the tempo of the game...It's always a tough out with travel to the big island..Not tonight for the Mustangs..Hawaii rolls.
Stephen Nover
Grizzlies vs. Thunder
Play: Thunder -5½
Look for the Thunder to play hard at home in this ESPN matchup trying to show the nation they are far more than just Kevin Durant, who isn't expected to play because of a sprained toe, and off am embarrassing home loss to the Kings two nights ago.
Oklahoma City is strong inside. The Thunder rank No. 1 in rebounding differential at plus seven per game thanks in part to Serge Ibaka, Enes Kanter and Steven Adams. Russell Westbrook normally steps up with monster performances when Durant is out. The Thunder rank No. 2 in scoring at 108.5 points a game. It's my belief the Thunder are undervalued when Durant isn't in the lineup.
The Thunder have won 11 of their last 13 home games averaging nearly 110 points during this home span. Oklahoma City has won four of its last five home games against Memphis and is 5-2-1 ATS the past eight times hosting the Grizzlies. The Thunder destroyed the Grizzlies, 125-88, when the teams last met on Dec. 8. That game was in Memphis, too.
No team is averaging fewer points per game than Memphis at 94.8 since Dec. 3. Only three times in their last 17 games have the Grizzlies reached triple-digits. They lack the firepower to hang with Oklahoma City especially with point guard Mike Conley dealing with lower back soreness that has affected his performance and kept him from logging his normal amount of playing time.
Memphis wins with defense. The Grizzlies' defense has been improving, but is down from past seasons ranking sixth. Memphis has been feasting on weak offenses and bad teams. Just one of the Grizzlies' last 11 opponents rank in the top 10 in scoring and six of their last seven foes do not have a winning record. The Grizzlies are 2-7-1 ATS the past 10 times they've faced an opponent with a winning mark.
Heath Mac
Cal Poly vs. Hawaii
Play: Hawaii -9
Hawaii look to have a nice team this season and have been playing well, especially at home. In past seasons, the Rainbow Warriors haven’t always used their distinct home court advantage as well as they could have, but this season they are pushing the tempo and putting up over 81 ppg (ranked 44th) while also playing solid defense, allowing 66.5 ppg (ranked 82nd). This nice combination of scoring and stopping, has seen them beat up on good teams such as Northern Iowa and Auburn, while also nearly pulling off an upset win over now ranked number 2, Oklahoma, a game in which they fell short by just 3 points, 81-84.
Cal Poly on the other hand have been a little disappointing this season, putting up around 75 ppg and allowing the same. However they have been particularly poor on the road where they are allowing 82 ppg (ranked 293rd). Cal Poly are 1-4 SU in their last 5 games, coming off thumpings by St Marys (30 points), USC (19 points), a bad Texas A&M C.C (6 points)and Texas A&M (19 points).
Hawaii are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games while Cal Poly are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games.
Scott Spreitzer
George Washington vs. St. Louis
Play: George Washington -10
Those who have followed me this season have cashed a few times going against St. Louis. As I have stated before, Jim Crews has not kept the Billikens anywhere close to the level the late Rick Majerus had this program. And once Majerus' influence was gone, SLU slowly started to erode. They have now lost five straight games and eight of their last nine with the only win coming against Alabama A&M. SLU is on a 0-8 ATS slide (1-8 ATS this season) and the eight losses came by an average final score of 74-57. This is the team that can't shoot straight, and they're pretty bad on the glass, also. GWU has six players averaging between 16 ppg and 8 ppg and should find little trouble extending a lead in this one. And while the Colonials are on a 6-2-2 ATS run on the road against teams with a losing home record, SLU enters on a 5-20-1 ATS slide at home.
Marc Lawrence
Jazz vs. Spurs
Play: Jazz +16
Edges - Jazz: 7-1-1 ATS with revenge this season; and 7-3-1 ATS as a dog of more than 3 points this season. Spurs: 0-2 SUATS in this series when Utah is playing with revenge from a same season loss of 33 or more points. With the Jazz looking to avenge 118-81 loss suffered on this floor three weeks ago, we recommend a 1* play on Utah.
Mike Lundin
Indiana vs Orlando
Play: Indiana -115
The Orlando Magic have been outscored by an average of 21.0 points over the last three games as they've seemingly collapsed after an impressive month of December. Perhaps not all that suprising as the Magic are just 11-24 ATS in January games over the last three seasons. The Indiana Pacers have hardly impressed of late either with just one win through their last four games, but they're 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings with Orlando and the Magic have averaged just 85.6 points on 39.8% shooting in the last 10 meetings with Indiana. The Pacers put up a good fight in a 103-100 OT loss at Miami Monday and they're 14-4 ATS in their last 18 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record. This looks like a good spot to back the Pacers.
Lee Williams
Oral Roberts vs. Denver
Play: Oral Roberts +3½
These are 2 teams that are really struggling with Oral Roberts on 6 game losing streak and Denver on 4.Oral Roberts started season strong but has been overwhelmed in games against likes of Okahoma and LSU on 6 game losing streak. We feel the value is with Oral Roberts tonight however,as Denver has had a limited home court advantage this year and Denver 331st in country in rebounding margin at -7.5 Oral Roberts should play hard tonight and we will take the points in a game Oral Roberts should have chance to win.
Jim Feist
Charlotte vs Phoenix
Play: Charlotte -2½
The Hornets are 23-11-3 ATS in their last 37 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. They face a Phoenix team in disarray on and off the court, with the owner pointing figures and calling out players for poor performances. Phoenix is dead last in the NBA in field goal shooting defense allowing .475% shooting. Since a loss to the Sixers, the Suns have lost their best player, Eric Bledsoe, for the season; fired two assistant coaches who were hardly to blame for the team's troubles; and compiled a 0-5 record that includes losing by 33 points to San Antonio and surrendering 142 points in regulation to the Sacramento Kings. The Suns are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 home games. Charlotte is 12-5 ATS after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.
Rob Vinciletti
Florida vs. Tennessee
Play: Tennessee +3
The Volunteers are 12-5 at home vs Florida and are taking 3 points here tonight. They are 7-0 at home and averaging 83 points here. They have also covered 6 of 7 off 3+ spread losses and are a solid 18-5 straight up as a home dog of 3 or less, while covering 3 of 4 after allowing 80 or more points in their last game. Florida has 3 guys who are doubtful to play at this point. We take Tennessee in this one.
Big Al
Toronto vs. Anaheim
Pick: Anaheim
Anaheim has one of the best defenses in the Conference, and has allowed just 90 goals in 38 contests. And 23-year-old John Gibson, who has taken over the #1 goaltending duties from Frederik Andersen is a big part of this defensive success. Gibson has risen virtually out of nowhere to become one of the top netminders in the game right now, with a league-leading 1.63 GAA and a Saves PCT of .932, good for fourth overall and tops in the Western Conference. The Ducks are 25-8 (+14 games on the money line) at home when the Total is 5 goals or less, and 91-47 (+22 games on the money line) off a win.
Jesse Schule
Toronto Maple Leafs vs. Anaheim Ducks
Play: Anaheim Ducks -171
The Ducks have put a brutal start to the season behind them, going 4-0-1 in their last five games. They host the Toronto Maple Leafs Wednesday night, and Toronto is sitting near the bottom of the Eastern Conference standings. The Leafs are still missing starting netminder James Reimer, and they will turn to Jonathan Bernier who is 5-10-3 with a 3.09 GAA on the season. Anaheim's rookie goaltender Jon Gibson will look to remain hot, he's won four straight, allowing just three goals during that span. Gibson owns the NHL's best GAA of 1.63, and his save percentage of .932 ranks 3rd. The Ducks are 1st in the league on the penalty kill, allowing opponents to convert on just 11.4 percent of their power play chances. The Leafs have to travel a long way to get to the West Coast, and recent Western Conference road trips have not been very successful. Toronto is 4-11 in it's last 15 versus the Pacific Division, and just 12-41 in it's last 53 road games. Corey Perry leads the Ducks with 14 goals, and 12 of those have come at home. He scored a hat trick in his last game against Toronto, and Jonathan Bernier was between the pipes when the Leafs lost 4-0 at the Pond last year.
Mr. Vegas
Pistons at Celtics
Play: Over
A pair of teams that like to run the court, both averaging over 100 ppg. Boston is No. 7 in the NBA in scoring with a deep lineup that likes to run at opponents. Rested Detroit is in town on a 9-3 run over the total, pouring in 115 points on Orlando the last game. Detroit is 20-7 over the total against the NBA Atlantic division. And when these teams clash the over is 7-1, including 4-0 over at Boston.
Will Rogers
Knicks at Heat
Play: Under
The New York Knicks come in to Miami as winners of three of their last four, including a sweep of a home and home series versus the Atlanta Hawks. The Heat have won three straight, but needed overtime to get past the Pacers on Monday. Both these teams play strong defense, and I expect tonight's game to be a close, low scoring battle.
Here are my keys to the game:
1. Knick's Defense - New York's strength is on the defensive side of the ball, allowing opponents to average just 99.6 points per game. Kristaps Porzingis is averaging two blocked shots per game, tops among rookies and 7th overall.
2. Let Down - The Heat trailed by 18 points at home to Indiana, but rallied to force overtime and win 103-100. We could see them suffer a let down here in their next game against New York.
3. X-Factor - The under is 22-10-1 in Miami's last 33 overall, and 17-7-1 in the last 25 meetings with New York.
SPORTS WAGERS
Pittsburgh +144 over CHICAGO
OT included. The Penguins have woken up by winning four of their past seven games and picking up points in six of those seven games or picking up 10 out of a possible 14 points during that span. Pittsburgh’s only regulation loss over its past seven games was a 1-0 defeat against Winnipeg when they ran into a hot goaltender. The Penguins are playing at a much higher level now than they were a month ago. The Pens played nose to nose with the Blackhawks last night in Pittsburgh and they figure to do the same tonight in Chicago. The Blackhawks won in Pittsburgh last night, 3-2 but the Penguins held a 36-30 shot advantage, they had a Corsi for edge of 60-45 and a scoring chance edge of 27-21. Both these teams are one game under .500 against top-10 teams with the Blackhawks being 6-7 and the Penguins being 5-6. The Pens have five less wins than the Blackhawks but have played two less games and Pittsburgh also suffered a prolonged slump while the Blackhawks have not.
The point is that not a lot separates these two. The Penguins have Kris Letang back and he’s as important to the Penguins as Duncan Keith is to the Blackhawks. It’s no coincidence that the Pens starting picking up points and winning games as soon as Letang returned from his injury. Last night it was Marc Andre Fleury against Cory Crawford and tonight it’s very likely going to be Jeff Zatkoff versus Scott Darling. Our money is on the former. Goaltending will very likely decide this game and we’re not fond of Darling. He’s had some good games but he’s also had some horrible one’s, as his .879 or below save percentage in four of his 10 starts will attest to. We’ve been watching Darling give up soft goals for years and that does not bode well here. Pittsburgh’s dynamic scorers are starting to heat up. By contrast, Jeff Zatkoff has been outstanding with a .926 save percentage in nine games. Only twice has Zatkoff’s save percentage been under .900 and one was barely under at .894. Zatkoff’s save percentage has been .943 or better in six of his nine starts with the other one being at .929. Our wager here is that Zatkoff is better than Darling and Pittsburgh comes out with a split.
NOTE: Goalies have not been confirmed yet but we're still going to step in now because we're comfortable playng the Pens at this price no matter who starts in goal.
Carolina +100 over VANCOUVER
OT included. This game cannot be priced like it’s a fair fight because it’s not. Carolina does everything better than the Canucks and they do so by a wide margin. The standings don’t reveal how superior the Hurricanes are to the Canucks and that’s because Cam Ward and Eddie Lack had about the worst possible first two months of the season as a duo could have. Speaking of Lack, he’ll get the start here and it’s an emotional one for him. He played several seasons in Vancouver and he often played to chants of ED-DY, ED-DY, ED-DY, ED-DY because that’s how good he played in this building and quickly became a fan favorite. His new teammates know how important this game is to him so they figure to dig down a little deeper to try and get him a victory. More than that, however, is that Lack is looking like his old self again. He’s not fighting the puck anymore like he was earlier and he’s standing in there with confidence. Aside from that, he’s not likely going to face many shots tonight. You see, Carolina leads the league in shots against per game. They also lead the league in fewest minor penalties taken. And if that’s not enough, Carolina leads the league in faceoffs won while the Canucks are dead last in that category. Carolina is a dominant puck possession team and they’ll be starting with the puck often in this one. Carolina is actually one of the least flawed teams in the NHL with one of the best defense corps but the market continues to ignore just how good they are.
Vancouver is none of the above. About the only way one can lose to the Canucks is to take too many penalties and allow their power-play to go to work. The Canucks PP has cooled off drastically lately but hopefully the ‘Canes will remain disciplined and not have it tested. The other way the Canucks can beat you is if you allow the Sedin/Sedin line space to work with. You take away the Canucks only point producing line and stay out of the box and their win expectation is the lowest in the league. Vancouver’s defense is constantly coughing it up and making poor decisions in its own end. Carolina specializes and thrives in forcing the opposition’s defense into making those poor decisions. Again, this isn’t a fair fight and we have to trust that we’re absolutely going with the best of it here.